Alcohol attributable burden of incidence of cancer in eight European countries based on results from prospective cohort study.

Objective To compute the burden of cancer attributable to current and former alcohol consumption in eight European countries based on direct relative risk estimates from a cohort study. Design Combination of prospective cohort study with representative population based data on alcohol exposure. Setting Eight countries (France, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Greece, Germany, Denmark) participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Participants 109 118 men and 254 870 women, mainly aged 37-70. Main outcome measures Hazard rate ratios expressing the relative risk of cancer incidence for former and current alcohol consumption among EPIC participants. Hazard rate ratios combined with representative information on alcohol consumption to calculate alcohol attributable fractions of causally related cancers by country and sex. Partial alcohol attributable fractions for consumption higher than the recommended upper limit (two drinks a day for men with about 24 g alcohol, one for women with about 12 g alcohol) and the estimated total annual number of cases of alcohol attributable cancer. Results If we assume causality, among men and women, 10% (95% confidence interval 7 to 13%) and 3% (1 to 5%) of the incidence of total cancer was attributable to former and current alcohol consumption in the selected European countries. For selected cancers the figures were 44% (31 to 56%) and 25% (5 to 46%) for upper aerodigestive tract, 33% (11 to 54%) and 18% (−3 to 38%) for liver, 17% (10 to 25%) and 4% (−1 to 10%) for colorectal cancer for men and women, respectively, and 5.0% (2 to 8%) for female breast cancer. A substantial part of the alcohol attributable fraction in 2008 was associated with alcohol consumption higher than the recommended upper limit: 33 037 of 178 578 alcohol related cancer cases in men and 17 470 of 397 043 alcohol related cases in women. Conclusions In western Europe, an important proportion of cases of cancer can be attributable to alcohol consumption, especially consumption higher than the recommended upper limits. These data support current political efforts to reduce or to abstain from alcohol consumption to reduce the incidence of cancer.

Bulky DNA adducts, 4-aminobiphenyl-haemoglobin adducts and diet in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) prospective study

In contrast to some extensively examined food mutagens, for example, aflatoxins, N-nitrosamines and heterocyclic amines, some other food contaminants, in particular polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and other aromatic compounds, have received less attention. Therefore, exploring the relationships between dietary habits and the levels of biomarkers related to exposure to aromatic compounds is highly relevant. We have investigated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort the association between dietary items (food groups and nutrients) and aromatic DNA adducts and 4-aminobiphenyl-Hb adducts. Both types of adducts are biomarkers of carcinogen exposure and possibly of cancer risk, and were measured, respectively, in leucocytes and erythrocytes of 1086 (DNA adducts) and 190 (Hb adducts) non-smokers. An inverse, statistically significant, association has been found between DNA adduct levels and dietary fibre intake (P = 0·02), vitamin E (P = 0·04) and alcohol (P = 0·03) but not with other nutrients or food groups. Also, an inverse association between fibre and fruit intake, and BMI and 4-aminobiphenyl-Hb adducts (P = 0·03, 0·04, and 0·03 respectively) was observed. After multivariate regression analysis these inverse correlations remained statistically significant, except for the correlation adducts v. fruit intake. The present study suggests that fibre intake in the usual range can modify the level of DNA or Hb aromatic adducts, but such role seems to be quantitatively modest. Fibres could reduce the formation of DNA adducts in different manners, by diluting potential food mutagens and carcinogens in the gastrointestinal tract, by speeding their transit through the colon and by binding carcinogenic substances.

Social inequalities and mortality in Europe-results from a large multi-national cohort

BACKGROUND Socio-economic inequalities in mortality are observed at the country level in both North America and Europe. The purpose of this work is to investigate the contribution of specific risk factors to social inequalities in cause-specific mortality using a large multi-country cohort of Europeans. METHODS A total of 3,456,689 person/years follow-up of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) was analysed. Educational level of subjects coming from 9 European countries was recorded as proxy for socio-economic status (SES). Cox proportional hazard model's with a step-wise inclusion of explanatory variables were used to explore the association between SES and mortality; a Relative Index of Inequality (RII) was calculated as measure of relative inequality. RESULTS Total mortality among men with the highest education level is reduced by 43% compared to men with the lowest (HR 0.57, 95% C.I. 0.52-0.61); among women by 29% (HR 0.71, 95% C.I. 0.64-0.78). The risk reduction was attenuated by 7% in men and 3% in women by the introduction of smoking and to a lesser extent (2% in men and 3% in women) by introducing body mass index and additional explanatory variables (alcohol consumption, leisure physical activity, fruit and vegetable intake) (3% in men and 5% in women). Social inequalities were highly statistically significant for all causes of death examined in men. In women, social inequalities were less strong, but statistically significant for all causes of death except for cancer-related mortality and injuries. DISCUSSION In this European study, substantial social inequalities in mortality among European men and women which cannot be fully explained away by accounting for known common risk factors for chronic diseases are reported.

Ulcerative colitis impairs the acylethanolamide-based anti-inflammatory system reversal by 5-aminosalicylic acid and glucocorticoids

Studies in animal models and humans suggest anti-inflammatory roles on the N acylethanolamide (NAE)-peroxisome proliferators activated receptor alpha (PPARα) system in inflammatory bowel diseases. However, the presence and function of NAE-PPARα signaling system in the ulcerative colitis (UC) of humans remain unknown as well as its response to active anti-inflammatory therapies such as 5-aminosalicylic acid (5-ASA) and glucocorticoids. Expression of PPARα receptor and PPARα ligands-biosynthetic (NAPE-PLD) and -degrading (FAAH and NAAA) enzymes were analyzed in untreated active and 5-ASA/glucocorticoids/immunomodulators-treated quiescent UC patients compared to healthy human colonic tissue by RT-PCR and immunohistochemical analyses. PPARα, NAAA, NAPE-PLD and FAAH showed differential distributions in the colonic epithelium, lamina propria, smooth muscle and enteric plexus. Gene expression analysis indicated a decrease of PPARα, PPARγ and NAAA, and an increase of FAAH and iNOS in the active colitis mucosa. Immunohistochemical expression in active colitis epithelium confirmed a PPARα decrease, but showed a sharp NAAA increase and a NAPE-PLD decrease, which were partially restored to control levels after treatment. We also characterized the immune cells of the UC mucosa infiltrate. We detected a decreased number of NAAA-positive and an increased number of FAAH-positive immune cells in active UC, which were partially restored to control levels after treatment. NAE-PPARα signaling system is impaired during active UC and 5-ASA/glucocorticoids treatment restored its normal expression. Since 5-ASA actions may work through PPARα and glucocorticoids through NAE-producing/degrading enzymes, the use of PPARα agonists or FAAH/NAAA blockers that increases endogenous PPARα ligands may yield similar therapeutics advantages.

Fine mapping and functional analysis of the multiple sclerosis risk gene CD6.

CD6 has recently been identified and validated as risk gene for multiple sclerosis (MS), based on the association of a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs17824933, located in intron 1. CD6 is a cell surface scavenger receptor involved in T-cell activation and proliferation, as well as in thymocyte differentiation. In this study, we performed a haptag SNP screen of the CD6 gene locus using a total of thirteen tagging SNPs, of which three were non-synonymous SNPs, and replicated the recently reported GWAS SNP rs650258 in a Spanish-Basque collection of 814 controls and 823 cases. Validation of the six most strongly associated SNPs was performed in an independent collection of 2265 MS patients and 2600 healthy controls. We identified association of haplotypes composed of two non-synonymous SNPs [rs11230563 (R225W) and rs2074225 (A257V)] in the 2(nd) SRCR domain with susceptibility to MS (P max(T) permutation = 1×10(-4)). The effect of these haplotypes on CD6 surface expression and cytokine secretion was also tested. The analysis showed significantly different CD6 expression patterns in the distinct cell subsets, i.e. - CD4(+) naïve cells, P = 0.0001; CD8(+) naïve cells, P<0.0001; CD4(+) and CD8(+) central memory cells, P = 0.01 and 0.05, respectively; and natural killer T (NKT) cells, P = 0.02; with the protective haplotype (RA) showing higher expression of CD6. However, no significant changes were observed in natural killer (NK) cells, effector memory and terminally differentiated effector memory T cells. Our findings reveal that this new MS-associated CD6 risk haplotype significantly modifies expression of CD6 on CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells.

Pharmacological administration of the isoflavone daidzein enhances cell proliferation and reduces high fat diet-induced apoptosis and gliosis in the rat hippocampus.

Soy extracts have been claimed to be neuroprotective against brain insults, an effect related to the estrogenic properties of isoflavones. However, the effects of individual isoflavones on obesity-induced disruption of adult neurogenesis have not yet been analyzed. In the present study we explore the effects of pharmacological administration of daidzein, a main soy isoflavone, in cell proliferation, cell apoptosis and gliosis in the adult hippocampus of animals exposed to a very high-fat diet. Rats made obese after 12-week exposure to a standard or high-fat (HFD, 60%) diets were treated with daidzein (50 mg kg(-1)) for 13 days. Then, plasma levels of metabolites and metabolic hormones, cell proliferation in the subgranular zone of the dentate gyrus (SGZ), and immunohistochemical markers of hippocampal cell apoptosis (caspase-3), gliosis (GFAP and Iba-1), food reward factor FosB and estrogen receptor alpha (ERα) were analyzed. Treatment with daidzein reduced food/caloric intake and body weight gain in obese rats. This was associated with glucose tolerance, low levels of HDL-cholesterol, insulin, adiponectin and testosterone, and high levels of leptin and 17β-estradiol. Daidzein increased the number of phospho-histone H3 and 5-bromo-2-deoxyuridine (BrdU)-ir cells detected in the SGZ of standard diet and HFD-fed rats. Daidzein reversed the HFD-associated enhanced immunohistochemical expression of caspase-3, FosB, GFAP, Iba-1 and ERα in the hippocampus, being more prominent in the dentate gyrus. These results suggest that pharmacological treatment with isoflavones regulates metabolic alterations associated with enhancement of cell proliferation and reduction of apoptosis and gliosis in response to high-fat diet.

Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

The association between dietary energy density and type 2 diabetes in Europe: results from the EPIC-InterAct Study

BACKGROUND Observational studies implicate higher dietary energy density (DED) as a potential risk factor for weight gain and obesity. It has been hypothesized that DED may also be associated with risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but limited evidence exists. Therefore, we investigated the association between DED and risk of T2D in a large prospective study with heterogeneity of dietary intake. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS A case-cohort study was nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC) study of 340,234 participants contributing 3.99 million person years of follow-up, identifying 12,403 incident diabetes cases and a random subcohort of 16,835 individuals from 8 European countries. DED was calculated as energy (kcal) from foods (except beverages) divided by the weight (gram) of foods estimated from dietary questionnaires. Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazard regression models were fitted by country. Risk estimates were pooled by random effects meta-analysis and heterogeneity was evaluated. Estimated mean (sd) DED was 1.5 (0.3) kcal/g among cases and subcohort members, varying across countries (range 1.4-1.7 kcal/g). After adjustment for age, sex, smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, energy intake from beverages and misreporting of dietary intake, no association was observed between DED and T2D (HR 1.02 (95% CI: 0.93-1.13), which was consistent across countries (I(2) = 2.9%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE In this large European case-cohort study no association between DED of solid and semi-solid foods and risk of T2D was observed. However, despite the fact that there currently is no conclusive evidence for an association between DED and T2DM risk, choosing low energy dense foods should be promoted as they support current WHO recommendations to prevent chronic diseases.

Ghrelin-induced orexigenic effect in rats depends on the metabolic status and is counteracted by peripheral CB1 receptor antagonism.

Ghrelin is an endogenous regulator of energy homeostasis synthesized by the stomach to stimulate appetite and positive energy balance. Similarly, the endocannabinoid system is part of our internal machinery controlling food intake and energy expenditure. Both peripheral and central mechanisms regulate CB1-mediated control of food intake and a functional relationship between hypothalamic ghrelin and cannabinoid CB1 receptor has been proposed. First of all, we investigated brain ghrelin actions on food intake in rats with different metabolic status (negative or equilibrate energy balance). Secondly, we tested a sub-anxiogenic ultra-low dose of the CB1 antagonist SR141716A (Rimonabant) and the peripheral-acting CB1 antagonist LH-21 on ghrelin orexigenic actions. We found that: 1) central administration of ghrelin promotes food intake in free feeding animals but not in 24 h food-deprived or chronically food-restricted animals; 2) an ultra-low dose of SR141716A (a subthreshold dose 75 folds lower than the EC50 for induction of anxiety) completely counteracts the orexigenic actions of central ghrelin in free feeding animals; 3) the peripheral-restricted CB1 antagonist LH-21 blocks ghrelin-induced hyperphagia in free feeding animals. Our study highlights the importance of the animaĺs metabolic status for the effectiveness of ghrelin in promoting feeding, and suggests that the peripheral endocannabinoid system may interact with ghrelińs signal in the control of food intake under equilibrate energy balance conditions.

Computational and Biological Evaluation of N-octadecyl-N'-propylsulfamide, a Selective PPARα Agonist Structurally Related to N-acylethanolamines.

To further understand the pharmacological properties of N-oleoylethanolamine (OEA), a naturally occurring lipid that activates peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha (PPARα), we designed sulfamoyl analogs based on its structure. Among the compounds tested, N-octadecyl-N'-propylsulfamide (CC7) was selected for functional comparison with OEA. The performed studies include the following computational and biological approaches: 1) molecular docking analyses; 2) molecular biology studies with PPARα; 3) pharmacological studies on feeding behavior and visceral analgesia. For the docking studies, we compared OEA and CC7 data with crystallization data obtained with the reference PPARα agonist GW409544. OEA and CC7 interacted with the ligand-binding domain of PPARα in a similar manner to GW409544. Both compounds produced similar transcriptional activation by in vitro assays, including the GST pull-down assay and reporter gene analysis. In addition, CC7 and OEA induced the mRNA expression of CPT1a in HpeG2 cells through PPARα and the induction was avoided with PPARα-specific siRNA. In vivo studies in rats showed that OEA and CC7 had anorectic and antiobesity activity and induced both lipopenia and decreases in hepatic fat content. However, different effects were observed when measuring visceral pain; OEA produced visceral analgesia whereas CC7 showed no effects. These results suggest that OEA activity on the PPARα receptor (e.g., lipid metabolism and feeding behavior) may be dissociated from other actions at alternative targets (e.g., pain) because other non cannabimimetic ligands that interact with PPARα, such as CC7, do not reproduce the full spectrum of the pharmacological activity of OEA. These results provide new opportunities for the development of specific PPARα-activating drugs focused on sulfamide derivatives with a long alkyl chain for the treatment of metabolic dysfunction.

Leucine supplementation protects from insulin resistance by regulating adiposity levels.

BACKGROUND Leucine supplementation might have therapeutic potential in preventing diet-induced obesity and improving insulin sensitivity. However, the underlying mechanisms are at present unclear. Additionally, it is unclear whether leucine supplementation might be equally efficacious once obesity has developed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Male C57BL/6J mice were fed chow or a high-fat diet (HFD), supplemented or not with leucine for 17 weeks. Another group of HFD-fed mice (HFD-pairfat group) was food restricted in order to reach an adiposity level comparable to that of HFD-Leu mice. Finally, a third group of mice was exposed to HFD for 12 weeks before being chronically supplemented with leucine. Leucine supplementation in HFD-fed mice decreased body weight and fat mass by increasing energy expenditure, fatty acid oxidation and locomotor activity in vivo. The decreased adiposity in HFD-Leu mice was associated with increased expression of uncoupling protein 3 (UCP-3) in the brown adipose tissue, better insulin sensitivity, increased intestinal gluconeogenesis and preservation of islets of Langerhans histomorphology and function. HFD-pairfat mice had a comparable improvement in insulin sensitivity, without changes in islets physiology or intestinal gluconeogenesis. Remarkably, both HFD-Leu and HFD-pairfat mice had decreased hepatic lipid content, which likely helped improve insulin sensitivity. In contrast, when leucine was supplemented to already obese animals, no changes in body weight, body composition or glucose metabolism were observed. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE These findings suggest that leucine improves insulin sensitivity in HFD-fed mice by primarily decreasing adiposity, rather than directly acting on peripheral target organs. However, beneficial effects of leucine on intestinal gluconeogenesis and islets of Langerhans's physiology might help prevent type 2 diabetes development. Differently, metabolic benefit of leucine supplementation is lacking in already obese animals, a phenomenon possibly related to the extent of the obesity before starting the supplementation.

Localization of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha (PPARα) and N-acyl phosphatidylethanolamine phospholipase D (NAPE-PLD) in cells expressing the Ca(2+)-binding proteins calbindin, calretinin, and parvalbumin in the adult rat hippocampus.

The N-acylethanolamines (NAEs), oleoylethanolamide (OEA) and palmithylethanolamide (PEA) are known to be endogenous ligands of PPARα receptors, and their presence requires the activation of a specific phospholipase D (NAPE-PLD) associated with intracellular Ca(2+) fluxes. Thus, the identification of a specific population of NAPE-PLD/PPARα-containing neurons that express selective Ca(2+)-binding proteins (CaBPs) may provide a neuroanatomical basis to better understand the PPARα system in the brain. For this purpose, we used double-label immunofluorescence and confocal laser scanning microscopy for the characterization of the co-existence of NAPE-PLD/PPARα and the CaBPs calbindin D28k, calretinin and parvalbumin in the rat hippocampus. PPARα expression was specifically localized in the cell nucleus and, occasionally, in the cytoplasm of the principal cells (dentate granular and CA pyramidal cells) and some non-principal cells of the hippocampus. PPARα was expressed in the calbindin-containing cells of the granular cell layer of the dentate gyrus (DG) and the SP of CA1. These principal PPARα(+)/calbindin(+) cells were closely surrounded by NAPE-PLD(+) fiber varicosities. No pyramidal PPARα(+)/calbindin(+) cells were detected in CA3. Most cells containing parvalbumin expressed both NAPE-PLD and PPARα in the principal layers of the DG and CA1/3. A small number of cells containing PPARα and calretinin was found along the hippocampus. Scattered NAPE-PLD(+)/calretinin(+) cells were specifically detected in CA3. NAPE-PLD(+) puncta surrounded the calretinin(+) cells localized in the principal cells of the DG and CA1. The identification of the hippocampal subpopulations of NAPE-PLD/PPARα-containing neurons that express selective CaBPs should be considered when analyzing the role of NAEs/PPARα-signaling system in the regulation of hippocampal functions.

Oleoylethanolamide enhances β-adrenergic-mediated thermogenesis and white-to-brown adipocyte phenotype in epididymal white adipose tissue in rat.

β-adrenergic receptor activation promotes brown adipose tissue (BAT) β-oxidation and thermogenesis by burning fatty acids during uncoupling respiration. Oleoylethanolamide (OEA) can inhibit feeding and stimulate lipolysis by activating peroxisome proliferator-activating receptor-α (PPARα) in white adipose tissue (WAT). Here we explore whether PPARα activation potentiates the effect of β3-adrenergic stimulation on energy balance mediated by the respective agonists OEA and CL316243. The effect of this pharmacological association on feeding, thermogenesis, β-oxidation, and lipid and cholesterol metabolism in epididymal (e)WAT was monitored. CL316243 (1 mg/kg) and OEA (5 mg/kg) co-administration over 6 days enhanced the reduction of both food intake and body weight gain, increased the energy expenditure and reduced the respiratory quotient (VCO2/VO2). This negative energy balance agreed with decreased fat mass and increased BAT weight and temperature, as well as with lowered plasma levels of triglycerides, cholesterol, nonessential fatty acids (NEFAs), and the adipokines leptin and TNF-α. Regarding eWAT, CL316243 and OEA treatment elevated levels of the thermogenic factors PPARα and UCP1, reduced p38-MAPK phosphorylation, and promoted brown-like features in the white adipocytes: the mitochondrial (Cox4i1, Cox4i2) and BAT (Fgf21, Prdm16) genes were overexpressed in eWAT. The enhancement of the fatty-acid β-oxidation factors Cpt1b and Acox1 in eWAT was accompanied by an upregulation of de novo lipogenesis and reduced expression of the unsaturated-fatty-acid-synthesis enzyme gene, Scd1. We propose that the combination of β-adrenergic and PPARα receptor agonists promotes therapeutic adipocyte remodelling in eWAT, and therefore has a potential clinical utility in the treatment of obesity.

Tuberculosis in migrant populations. A systematic review of the qualitative literature.

BACKGROUND The re-emergence of tuberculosis (TB) in low-incidence countries and its disproportionate burden on immigrants is a public health concern posing specific social and ethical challenges. This review explores perceptions, knowledge, attitudes and treatment adherence behaviour relating to TB and their social implications as reported in the qualitative literature. METHODS Systematic review in four electronic databases. Findings from thirty selected studies extracted, tabulated, compared and synthesized. FINDINGS TB was attributed to many non-exclusive causes including air-born transmission of bacteria, genetics, malnutrition, excessive work, irresponsible lifestyles, casual contact with infected persons or objects; and exposure to low temperatures, dirt, stress and witchcraft. Perceived as curable but potentially lethal and highly contagious, there was confusion around a condition surrounded by fears. A range of economic, legislative, cultural, social and health system barriers could delay treatment seeking. Fears of deportation and having contacts traced could prevent individuals from seeking medical assistance. Once on treatment, family support and "the personal touch" of health providers emerged as key factors facilitating adherence. The concept of latent infection was difficult to comprehend and while TB screening was often seen as a socially responsible act, it could be perceived as discriminatory. Immigration and the infectiousness of TB mutually reinforced each another exacerbating stigma. This was further aggravated by indirect costs such as losing a job, being evicted by a landlord or not being able to attend school. CONCLUSIONS Understanding immigrants' views of TB and the obstacles that they face when accessing the health system and adhering to a treatment programme-taking into consideration their previous experiences at countries of origin as well as the social, economic and legislative context in which they live at host countries- has an important role and should be considered in the design, evaluation and adaptation of programmes.

Use of Hy's law and a new composite algorithm to predict acute liver failure in patients with drug-induced liver injury.

BACKGROUND & AIMS Hy's Law, which states that hepatocellular drug-induced liver injury (DILI) with jaundice indicates a serious reaction, is used widely to determine risk for acute liver failure (ALF). We aimed to optimize the definition of Hy's Law and to develop a model for predicting ALF in patients with DILI. METHODS We collected data from 771 patients with DILI (805 episodes) from the Spanish DILI registry, from April 1994 through August 2012. We analyzed data collected at DILI recognition and at the time of peak levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and total bilirubin (TBL). RESULTS Of the 771 patients with DILI, 32 developed ALF. Hepatocellular injury, female sex, high levels of TBL, and a high ratio of aspartate aminotransferase (AST):ALT were independent risk factors for ALF. We compared 3 ways to use Hy's Law to predict which patients would develop ALF; all included TBL greater than 2-fold the upper limit of normal (×ULN) and either ALT level greater than 3 × ULN, a ratio (R) value (ALT × ULN/alkaline phosphatase × ULN) of 5 or greater, or a new ratio (nR) value (ALT or AST, whichever produced the highest ×ULN/ alkaline phosphatase × ULN value) of 5 or greater. At recognition of DILI, the R- and nR-based models identified patients who developed ALF with 67% and 63% specificity, respectively, whereas use of only ALT level identified them with 44% specificity. However, the level of ALT and the nR model each identified patients who developed ALF with 90% sensitivity, whereas the R criteria identified them with 83% sensitivity. An equal number of patients who did and did not develop ALF had alkaline phosphatase levels greater than 2 × ULN. An algorithm based on AST level greater than 17.3 × ULN, TBL greater than 6.6 × ULN, and AST:ALT greater than 1.5 identified patients who developed ALF with 82% specificity and 80% sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS When applied at DILI recognition, the nR criteria for Hy's Law provides the best balance of sensitivity and specificity whereas our new composite algorithm provides additional specificity in predicting the ultimate development of ALF.