Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

Four main virotypes among extended-spectrum-β-lactamase-producing isolates of Escherichia coli O25b:H4-B2-ST131: bacterial, epidemiological, and clinical characteristics.

A total of 1,021 extended-spectrum-β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (ESBLEC) isolates obtained in 2006 during a Spanish national survey conducted in 44 hospitals were analyzed for the presence of the O25b:H4-B2-ST131 (sequence type 131) clonal group. Overall, 195 (19%) O25b-ST131 isolates were detected, with prevalence rates ranging from 0% to 52% per hospital. Molecular characterization of 130 representative O25b-ST131 isolates showed that 96 (74%) were positive for CTX-M-15, 15 (12%) for CTX-M-14, 9 (7%) for SHV-12, 6 (5%) for CTX-M-9, 5 (4%) for CTX-M-32, and 1 (0.7%) each for CTX-M-3 and the new ESBL enzyme CTX-M-103. The 130 O25b-ST131 isolates exhibited relatively high virulence scores (mean, 14.4 virulence genes). Although the virulence profiles of the O25b-ST131 isolates were fairly homogeneous, they could be classified into four main virotypes based on the presence or absence of four distinctive virulence genes: virotypes A (22%) (afa FM955459 positive, iroN negative, ibeA negative, sat positive or negative), B (31%) (afa FM955459 negative, iroN positive, ibeA negative, sat positive or negative), C (32%) (afa FM955459 negative, iroN negative, ibeA negative, sat positive), and D (13%) (afa FM955459 negative, iroN positive or negative, ibeA positive, sat positive or negative). The four virotypes were also identified in other countries, with virotype C being overrepresented internationally. Correspondingly, an analysis of XbaI macrorestriction profiles revealed four major clusters, which were largely virotype specific. Certain epidemiological and clinical features corresponded with the virotype. Statistically significant virotype-specific associations included, for virotype B, older age and a lower frequency of infection (versus colonization), for virotype C, a higher frequency of infection, and for virotype D, younger age and community-acquired infections. In isolates of the O25b:H4-B2-ST131 clonal group, these findings uniquely define four main virotypes, which are internationally distributed, correspond with pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) profiles, and exhibit distinctive clinical-epidemiological associations.