3 resultados para Asymptotic behaviour, Bayesian methods, Mixture models, Overfitting, Posterior concentration


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BACKGROUND The objective of this research was to evaluate data from a randomized clinical trial that tested injectable diacetylmorphine (DAM) and oral methadone (MMT) for substitution treatment, using a multi-domain dichotomous index, with a Bayesian approach. METHODS Sixty two long-term, socially-excluded heroin injectors, not benefiting from available treatments were randomized to receive either DAM or MMT for 9 months in Granada, Spain. Completers were 44 and data at the end of the study period was obtained for 50. Participants were determined to be responders or non responders using a multi-domain outcome index accounting for their physical and mental health and psychosocial integration, used in a previous trial. Data was analyzed with Bayesian methods, using information from a similar study conducted in The Netherlands to select a priori distributions. On adding the data from the present study to update the a priori information, the distribution of the difference in response rates were obtained and used to build credibility intervals and relevant probability computations. RESULTS In the experimental group (n = 27), the rate of responders to treatment was 70.4% (95% CI 53.287.6), and in the control group (n = 23), it was 34.8% (95% CI 15.354.3). The probability of success in the experimental group using the a posteriori distributions was higher after a proper sensitivity analysis. Almost the whole distribution of the rates difference (the one for diacetylmorphine minus methadone) was located to the right of the zero, indicating the superiority of the experimental treatment. CONCLUSION The present analysis suggests a clinical superiority of injectable diacetylmorphine compared to oral methadone in the treatment of severely affected heroin injectors not benefiting sufficiently from the available treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN52023186.

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INTRODUCTION Sexually transmitted infections (STI) like Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) have been associated with increased risk of HIV acquisition (1). It has been also described as a high prevalence of asymptomatic CT and NG infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) (2). The aim of this study was to know the prevalence of CT and/or NG infections in asymptomatic HIV-MSM and the related factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS Prospective study of a cohort of asymptomatic HIV-MSM with follow-up in Malaga (southern Spain) during October 2012-May 2014. Patients with an opportunistic event or who received active antibiotic therapy for CT and/or NG in the previous month were excluded. All of them completed a questionnaire about sexual behaviour, barrier methods and recreational drugs use. Demographical, epidemiological, clinical, analytical and therapeutic data were also collected. Pharyngeal and rectal swabs, and urine samples were collected to be tested for CT and NG by nucleic acid amplification test (c4800 CT/NG. Roche Diagnostics, Mannheim, Germany) (3). STATISTICS ANALYSIS SPSS 17.0. RESULTS 255 patients were asked to participate and 248 of them accepted. Median age was 37.7 (30.6-46.3) years, median time since HIV diagnosis was 47.7 (10.5-104.1) months, and median CD4 cells count was 607 (440-824) cell/µL. There were 195 (78.6%) patients on antiretroviral therapy; 81.5% of them had undetectable viral load. 80.5% of the patients had a past history of STI. Infection by CT and/or NG was diagnosed in 24 (9.7%) patients. Overall four urine samples, two pharyngeal, and 15 rectal ones were positive for CT, and five pharyngeal and five rectal swabs were positive for NG. Two patients were co-infected by CT and NG: one with CT in urine and both in rectum, another with CT in urine and rectum and NG in pharynx. One patient presented CT in pharynx and rectum, and two patients NG in pharynx and rectum. Positive CT and/or NG tests were only related with detectable HIV viral load (OR 3.08, 95% CI 1.2-7.4; p=0.01). It was not related with sexual behaviour, nor with alcohol or recreational drugs use. CONCLUSIONS STI screening had a great acceptance in this population. There was a high prevalence of asymptomatic CT and/or NG infections. Rectum sample was the most effective one. Viral suppression could protect from these STI. Screening should be recommended in HIV-MSM.

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Background Intra-urban inequalities in mortality have been infrequently analysed in European contexts. The aim of the present study was to analyse patterns of cancer mortality and their relationship with socioeconomic deprivation in small areas in 11 Spanish cities. Methods It is a cross-sectional ecological design using mortality data (years 1996-2003). Units of analysis were the census tracts. A deprivation index was calculated for each census tract. In order to control the variability in estimating the risk of dying we used Bayesian models. We present the RR of the census tract with the highest deprivation vs. the census tract with the lowest deprivation. Results In the case of men, socioeconomic inequalities are observed in total cancer mortality in all cities, except in Castellon, Cordoba and Vigo, while Barcelona (RR = 1.53 95%CI 1.42-1.67), Madrid (RR = 1.57 95%CI 1.49-1.65) and Seville (RR = 1.53 95%CI 1.36-1.74) present the greatest inequalities. In general Barcelona and Madrid, present inequalities for most types of cancer. Among women for total cancer mortality, inequalities have only been found in Barcelona and Zaragoza. The excess number of cancer deaths due to socioeconomic deprivation was 16,413 for men and 1,142 for women. Conclusion This study has analysed inequalities in cancer mortality in small areas of cities in Spain, not only relating this mortality with socioeconomic deprivation, but also calculating the excess mortality which may be attributed to such deprivation. This knowledge is particularly useful to determine which geographical areas in each city need intersectorial policies in order to promote a healthy environment.