Use of Hy's law and a new composite algorithm to predict acute liver failure in patients with drug-induced liver injury.

BACKGROUND & AIMS Hy's Law, which states that hepatocellular drug-induced liver injury (DILI) with jaundice indicates a serious reaction, is used widely to determine risk for acute liver failure (ALF). We aimed to optimize the definition of Hy's Law and to develop a model for predicting ALF in patients with DILI. METHODS We collected data from 771 patients with DILI (805 episodes) from the Spanish DILI registry, from April 1994 through August 2012. We analyzed data collected at DILI recognition and at the time of peak levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and total bilirubin (TBL). RESULTS Of the 771 patients with DILI, 32 developed ALF. Hepatocellular injury, female sex, high levels of TBL, and a high ratio of aspartate aminotransferase (AST):ALT were independent risk factors for ALF. We compared 3 ways to use Hy's Law to predict which patients would develop ALF; all included TBL greater than 2-fold the upper limit of normal (×ULN) and either ALT level greater than 3 × ULN, a ratio (R) value (ALT × ULN/alkaline phosphatase × ULN) of 5 or greater, or a new ratio (nR) value (ALT or AST, whichever produced the highest ×ULN/ alkaline phosphatase × ULN value) of 5 or greater. At recognition of DILI, the R- and nR-based models identified patients who developed ALF with 67% and 63% specificity, respectively, whereas use of only ALT level identified them with 44% specificity. However, the level of ALT and the nR model each identified patients who developed ALF with 90% sensitivity, whereas the R criteria identified them with 83% sensitivity. An equal number of patients who did and did not develop ALF had alkaline phosphatase levels greater than 2 × ULN. An algorithm based on AST level greater than 17.3 × ULN, TBL greater than 6.6 × ULN, and AST:ALT greater than 1.5 identified patients who developed ALF with 82% specificity and 80% sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS When applied at DILI recognition, the nR criteria for Hy's Law provides the best balance of sensitivity and specificity whereas our new composite algorithm provides additional specificity in predicting the ultimate development of ALF.

Variation of transaminases, HCV-RNA levels and Th1/Th2 cytokine production during the post-partum period in pregnant women with chronic hepatitis C.

This study analyses the evolution of liver disease in women with chronic hepatitis C during the third trimester of pregnancy and the post-partum period, as a natural model of immune modulation and reconstitution. Of the 122 mothers recruited to this study, 89 were HCV-RNA+ve/HIV-ve and 33 were HCV-RNA-ve/HIV-ve/HCVantibody+ve and all were tested during the third trimester of pregnancy, at delivery and post-delivery. The HCV-RNA+ve mothers were categorized as either Type-A (66%), with an increase in ALT levels in the post-partum period (>40 U/L; P<0.001) or as Type-B (34%), with no variation in ALT values. The Type-A mothers also presented a significant decrease in serum HCV-RNA levels in the post-delivery period (P<0.001) and this event was concomitant with an increase in Th1 cytokine levels (INFγ, P = 0.04; IL12, P = 0.01 and IL2, P = 0.01). On the other hand, the Type-B mothers and the HCV-RNA-ve women presented no variations in either of these parameters. However, they did present higher Th1 cytokine levels in the partum period (INFγ and IL2, P<0.05) than both the Type-A and the HCV-RNA-ve women. Cytokine levels at the moment of delivery do not constitute a risk factor associated with HCV vertical transmission. It is concluded that differences in the ALT and HCV-RNA values observed in HCV-RNA+ve women in the postpartum period might be due to different ratios of Th1 cytokine production. In the Type-B women, the high partum levels of Th1 cytokines and the absence of post-partum variation in ALT and HCV-RNA levels may be related to permanent Th1 cytokine stimulation.