Estimation of the real population and its impact on the utilisation of healthcare services in Mediterranean resort regions: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND The demographic structure has a significant influence on the use of healthcare services, as does the size of the population denominators. Very few studies have been published on methods for estimating the real population such as tourist resorts. The lack of information about these problems means there is a corresponding lack of information about the behaviour of populational denominators (the floating population or tourist load) and the effect of this on the use of healthcare services. The objectives of the study were: a) To determine the Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) ratio, per person per day, among populations of known size; b) to estimate, by means of this ratio, the real population in an area where tourist numbers are very significant; and c) to determine the impact on the utilisation of hospital emergency healthcare services of the registered population, in comparison to the non-resident population, in two areas where tourist numbers are very significant. METHODS An ecological study design was employed. We analysed the Healthcare Districts of the Costa del Sol and the island of Menorca. Both are Spanish territories in the Mediterranean region. RESULTS In the two areas analysed, the correlation coefficient between the MSW ratio and admissions to hospital emergency departments exceeded 0.9, with p < 0.001. On the basis of MSW generation ratios, obtained for a control zone and also measured in neighbouring countries, we estimated the real population. For the summer months, when tourist activity is greatest and demand for emergency healthcare at hospitals is highest, this value was found to be double that of the registered population. CONCLUSION The MSW indicator, which is both ecological and indirect, can be used to estimate the real population in areas where population levels vary significantly during the year. This parameter is of interest in planning and dimensioning the provision of healthcare services.

Nuevos datos sobre fibrilación auricular, observaciones al estudio OFRECE. Respuesta

We appreciate the interest shown by Vidal-Pérez et al. in our article published recently in Revista Española de Cardiología,1 which provides us with an opportunity to present some interesting additional information not included in the article itself. We agree on the importance of knowing the thromboembolic risk of the population included in the OFRECE study, both for patients with a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation and for the general population. In our study, the mean (standard deviation) CHADS2 and CHAD2DS2-VASc of patients with atrial fibrillation was 2.3 (1.3) and 3.8 (1.6), respectively. In the general population, the mean (standard deviation) CHADS2 and CHAD2DS2-VASc of patients with atrial fibrillation was 0.8 (1) and 1.8 (1.5), respectively. The distribution of both scales is in agreement with that of the Val-FAAP and AFABE studies,2, 3 although the similarity is greater in the 2 population-based studies (Figure). These data are, we believe, relevant because they show that the level of risk in the population with atrial fibrillation is very similar to that of the populations included in clinical trials with new oral anticoagulants. In addition, an increasing body of evidence suggests that thromboembolic risk, as measured with these scales in the population without a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation, is associated with the onset of events.