87 resultados para Nonparametric regression techniques


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BACKGROUND Missed, delayed or incorrect diagnoses are considered to be diagnostic errors. The aim of this paper is to describe the methodology of a study to analyse cognitive aspects of the process by which primary care (PC) physicians diagnose dyspnoea. It examines the possible links between the use of heuristics, suboptimal cognitive acts and diagnostic errors, using Reason's taxonomy of human error (slips, lapses, mistakes and violations). The influence of situational factors (professional experience, perceived overwork and fatigue) is also analysed. METHODS Cohort study of new episodes of dyspnoea in patients receiving care from family physicians and residents at PC centres in Granada (Spain). With an initial expected diagnostic error rate of 20%, and a sampling error of 3%, 384 episodes of dyspnoea are calculated to be required. In addition to filling out the electronic medical record of the patients attended, each physician fills out 2 specially designed questionnaires about the diagnostic process performed in each case of dyspnoea. The first questionnaire includes questions on the physician's initial diagnostic impression, the 3 most likely diagnoses (in order of likelihood), and the diagnosis reached after the initial medical history and physical examination. It also includes items on the physicians' perceived overwork and fatigue during patient care. The second questionnaire records the confirmed diagnosis once it is reached. The complete diagnostic process is peer-reviewed to identify and classify the diagnostic errors. The possible use of heuristics of representativeness, availability, and anchoring and adjustment in each diagnostic process is also analysed. Each audit is reviewed with the physician responsible for the diagnostic process. Finally, logistic regression models are used to determine if there are differences in the diagnostic error variables based on the heuristics identified. DISCUSSION This work sets out a new approach to studying the diagnostic decision-making process in PC, taking advantage of new technologies which allow immediate recording of the decision-making process.

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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES To analyze the frequency of complications during laparoscopic gynecologic surgery and identify associated risk factors. METHODS A descriptive observational study was performed between January 2000 and December 2012 and included all gynecologic laparoscopies performed at our center. Variables were recorded for patient characteristics, indication for surgery, length of hospital stay (in days), major and minor complications, and conversions to laparotomy. To identify risk factors and variables associated with complications, crude and adjusted odds ratios were calculated with unconditional logistic regression. RESULTS Of all 2888 laparoscopies included, most were procedures of moderate difficulty (adnexal surgery) (54.2%). The overall frequency of major complications was 1.93%, and that of minor complications was 4.29%. The level of technical difficulty and existence of prior abdominal surgery were associated with a higher risk of major complications and conversions to laparotomy. CONCLUSION Laparoscopic gynecologic surgery is associated with a low frequency of complications but is a procedure that is not without risk. Greater technical difficulty and prior surgery were factors associated with a higher frequency of complications.

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OBJECTIVE Hospital mortality in myocardial infarction ST-elevation myocardial infarction has decreased in recent years, in contrast to prehospital mortality. Our objective was to determine initial complications and factors related to prehospital mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction with ST segment elevation (STEMI). METHODS Observational study based on a prospective continuous register of patients of any age attended by out-of-hospital emergency teams in Andalusia between January 2006 and June 2009. This includes patients with acute coronary syndrome-like symptoms whose initial ECG showed ST elevation or presumably new left bundle branch block (LBBB). Epidemiological, prehospital data and final diagnostic were recorded. The study included all patients with STEMI on the register, without age restrictions. Forward stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed to control for confounders. RESULTS A total of 2528 patients were included, 24% were women. Mean age 63.4±13.4 years; 16.7% presented atypical clinical symptoms. Initial complications: ventricular fibrillation (VF) 8.4%, severe bradycardia 5.8%, third-degree atrial-ventricular (AV) block 2.4% and hypotension 13.5%. Fifty-two (2.1%) patients died before reaching hospital. Factors associated with prehospital mortality were female sex (OR 2.36, CI 1.28 to 4.33), atypical clinical picture (OR 2.31, CI 1.21 to 4.41), hypotension (OR 4.95, CI 2.60 to 9.20), LBBB (OR 4.29, CI 1.71 to 10.74), extensive infarction (ST elevation in ≥5 leads) (OR 2.53, CI 1.28 to 5.01) and VF (OR 2.82, CI 1.38 to 5.78). CONCLUSIONS A significant proportion of patients with STEMI present early complications in the prehospital setting, and some die before reaching hospital. Prehospital mortality was associated with female sex and atypical presentation, as pre-existing conditions, and hypotension, extensive infarction, LBBB and VF on emergency team attendance.

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BACKGROUND Excess body weight, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and certain dietary factors are individually related to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk; however, little is known about their joint effects. The aim of this study was to develop a healthy lifestyle index (HLI) composed of five potentially modifiable lifestyle factors - healthy weight, physical activity, non-smoking, limited alcohol consumption and a healthy diet, and to explore the association of this index with CRC incidence using data collected within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. METHODS In the EPIC cohort, a total of 347,237 men and women, 25- to 70-years old, provided dietary and lifestyle information at study baseline (1992 to 2000). Over a median follow-up time of 12 years, 3,759 incident CRC cases were identified. The association between a HLI and CRC risk was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression models and population attributable risks (PARs) have been calculated. RESULTS After accounting for study centre, age, sex and education, compared with 0 or 1 healthy lifestyle factors, the hazard ratio (HR) for CRC was 0.87 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.44 to 0.77) for two factors, 0.79 (95% CI: 0.70 to 0.89) for three factors, 0.66 (95% CI: 0.58 to 0.75) for four factors and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.54 to 0.74) for five factors; P-trend <0.0001. The associations were present for both colon and rectal cancers, HRs, 0.61 (95% CI: 0.50 to 0.74; P for trend <0.0001) for colon cancer and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.53 to 0.88; P-trend <0.0001) for rectal cancer, respectively (P-difference by cancer sub-site = 0.10). Overall, 16% of the new CRC cases (22% in men and 11% in women) were attributable to not adhering to a combination of all five healthy lifestyle behaviours included in the index. CONCLUSIONS Combined lifestyle factors are associated with a lower incidence of CRC in European populations characterized by western lifestyles. Prevention strategies considering complex targeting of multiple lifestyle factors may provide practical means for improved CRC prevention.

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BACKGROUND Few epidemiological studies have examined the association between dietary trans fatty acids and weight gain, and the evidence remains inconsistent. The main objective of the study was to investigate the prospective association between biomarker of industrial trans fatty acids and change in weight within the large study European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. METHODS Baseline plasma fatty acid concentrations were determined in a representative EPIC sample from the 23 participating EPIC centers. A total of 1,945 individuals were followed for a median of 4.9 years to monitor weight change. The association between elaidic acid level and percent change of weight was investigated using a multinomial logistic regression model, adjusted by length of follow-up, age, energy, alcohol, smoking status, physical activity, and region. RESULTS In women, doubling elaidic acid was associated with a decreased risk of weight loss (odds ratio (OR) = 0.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.55-0.88, p = 0.002) and a trend was observed with an increased risk of weight gain during the 5-year follow-up (OR = 1.23, 95% CI = 0.97-1.56, p = 0.082) (p-trend<.0001). In men, a trend was observed for doubling elaidic acid level and risk of weight loss (OR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.66-1.01, p = 0.062) while no significant association was found with risk of weight gain during the 5-year follow-up (OR = 1.08, 95% CI = 0.88-1.33, p = 0.454). No association was found for saturated and cis-monounsaturated fatty acids. CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that a high intake of industrial trans fatty acids may decrease the risk of weight loss, particularly in women. Prevention of obesity should consider limiting the consumption of highly processed foods, the main source of industrially-produced trans fatty acids.

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Abstract Background: Preventable mortality is a good indicator of possible problems to be investigated in the primary prevention chain, making it also a useful tool with which to evaluate health policies particularly public health policies. This study describes inequalities in preventable avoidable mortality in relation to socioeconomic status in small urban areas of thirty three Spanish cities, and analyses their evolution over the course of the periods 1996–2001 and 2002–2007. Methods: We analysed census tracts and all deaths occurring in the population residing in these cities from 1996 to 2007 were taken into account. The causes included in the study were lung cancer, cirrhosis, AIDS/HIV, motor vehicle traffic accidents injuries, suicide and homicide. The census tracts were classified into three groups, according their socioeconomic level. To analyse inequalities in mortality risks between the highest and lowest socioeconomic levels and over different periods, for each city and separating by sex, Poisson regression were used. Results: Preventable avoidable mortality made a significant contribution to general mortality (around 7.5%, higher among men), having decreased over time in men (12.7 in 1996–2001 and 10.9 in 2002–2007), though not so clearly among women (3.3% in 1996–2001 and 2.9% in 2002–2007). It has been observed in men that the risks of death are higher in areas of greater deprivation, and that these excesses have not modified over time. The result in women is different and differences in mortality risks by socioeconomic level could not be established in many cities. Conclusions: Preventable mortality decreased between the 1996–2001 and 2002–2007 periods, more markedly in men than in women. There were socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in most cities analysed, associating a higher risk of death with higher levels of deprivation. Inequalities have remained over the two periods analysed. This study makes it possible to identify those areas where excess preventable mortality was associated with more deprived zones. It is in these deprived zones where actions to reduce and monitor health inequalities should be put into place. Primary healthcare may play an important role in this process. Keywords: Preventable avoidable mortality, Causes of death, Inequalities in health, Small area analysis

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INTRODUCTION The relationship between circulating prolactin and invasive breast cancer has been investigated previously, but the association between prolactin levels and in situ breast cancer risk has received less attention. METHODS We analysed the relationship between pre-diagnostic prolactin levels and the risk of in situ breast cancer overall, and by menopausal status and use of postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) at blood donation. Conditional logistic regression was used to assess this association in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, including 307 in situ breast cancer cases and their matched control subjects. RESULTS We found a significant positive association between higher circulating prolactin levels and risk of in situ breast cancer among all women [pre-and postmenopausal combined, ORlog2 = 1.35 (95%CI 1.04-1.76), Ptrend = 0.03]. No statistically significant heterogeneity was found between prolactin levels and in situ cancer risk by menopausal status (Phet = 0.98) or baseline HT use (Phet = 0.20), although the observed association was more pronounced among postmenopausal women using HT compared to non-users (Ptrend = 0.06 vs Ptrend = 0.35). In subgroup analyses, the observed positive association was strongest in women diagnosed with in situ breast tumors <4 years compared to ≥4 years after blood donation (Ptrend = 0.01 vs Ptrend = 0.63; Phet = 0.04) and among nulliparous women compared to parous women (Ptrend = 0.03 vs Ptrend = 0.15; Phet = 0.07). CONCLUSIONS Our data extends prior research linking prolactin and invasive breast cancer to the outcome of in situ breast tumours and shows that higher circulating prolactin is associated with increased risk of in situ breast cancer.

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In recent years, some epidemiologic studies have attributed adverse effects of air pollutants on health not only to particles and sulfur dioxide but also to photochemical air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide and ozone). The effects are usually small, leading to some inconsistencies in the results of the studies. Furthermore, the different methodologic approaches of the studies used has made it difficult to derive generic conclusions. We provide here a quantitative summary of the short-term effects of photochemical air pollutants on mortality in seven Spanish cities involved in the EMECAM project, using generalized additive models from analyses of single and multiple pollutants. Nitrogen dioxide and ozone data were provided by seven EMECAM cities (Barcelona, Gijón, Huelva, Madrid, Oviedo, Seville, and Valencia). Mortality indicators included daily total mortality from all causes excluding external causes, daily cardiovascular mortality, and daily respiratory mortality. Individual estimates, obtained from city-specific generalized additive Poisson autoregressive models, were combined by means of fixed effects models and, if significant heterogeneity among local estimates was found, also by random effects models. Significant positive associations were found between daily mortality (all causes and cardiovascular) and NO(2), once the rest of air pollutants were taken into account. A 10 microg/m(3) increase in the 24-hr average 1-day NO(2)level was associated with an increase in the daily number of deaths of 0.43% [95% confidence interval (CI), -0.003-0.86%] for all causes excluding external. In the case of significant relationships, relative risks for cause-specific mortality were nearly twice as much as that for total mortality for all the photochemical pollutants. Ozone was independently related only to cardiovascular daily mortality. No independent statistically significant relationship between photochemical air pollutants and respiratory mortality was found. The results in this study suggest that, given the present levels of photochemical pollutants, people living in Spanish cities are exposed to health risks derived from air pollution.

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OBJECTIVE Serum levels of soluble TNF-like weak inducer of apoptosis (sTWEAK) and its scavenger receptor CD163 (sCD163) have been linked to insulin resistance. We analysed the usefulness of these cytokines as biomarkers of type 2 diabetes in a Spanish cohort, together with their relationship to food consumption in the setting of the Di@bet.es study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This is a cross-sectional, matched case-control study of 514 type 2 diabetes subjects and 517 controls with a Normal Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (NOGTT), using data from the Di@bet.es study. Study variables included clinical and demographic structured survey, food frequency questionnaire and physical examination. Serum concentrations of sTWEAK and sCD163 were measured by ELISA. Linear regression analysis determined which variables were related to sTWEAK and sCD163 levels. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate odd ratios of presenting type 2 diabetes. RESULTS sCD163 concentrations and sCD163/sTWEAK ratio were 11.0% and 15.0% higher, respectively, (P<0.001) in type 2 diabetes than in controls. Following adjustment for various confounders, the OR for presenting type 2 diabetes in subjects in the highest vs the lowest tertile of sCD163 was [(OR), 2,01 (95%CI, 1,46-2,97); P for trend <0.001]. Coffee and red wine consumption was negatively associated with serum levels of sCD163 (P = 0.0001 and; P = 0.002 for coffee and red wine intake, respectively). CONCLUSIONS High circulating levels of sCD163 are associated with type 2 diabetes in the Spanish population. The association between coffee and red wine intake and these biomarkers deserves further study to confirm its potential role in type 2 diabetes.

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The impact of antimicrobial resistance on clinical outcomes is the subject of ongoing investigations, although uncertainty remains about its contribution to mortality. We investigated the impact of carbapenem resistance on mortality in Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteremia in a prospective multicenter (10 teaching hospitals) observational study of patients with monomicrobial bacteremia followed up for 30 days after the onset of bacteremia. The adjusted influence of carbapenem resistance on mortality was studied by using Cox regression analysis. Of 632 episodes, 487 (77%) were caused by carbapenem-susceptible P. aeruginosa (CSPA) isolates, and 145 (23%) were caused by carbapenem-resistant P. aeruginosa (CRPA) isolates. The median incidence density of nosocomial CRPA bacteremia was 2.3 episodes per 100,000 patient-days (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9 to 2.8). The regression demonstrated a time-dependent effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality as well as a significant interaction with the Charlson index: the deleterious effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality decreased with higher Charlson index scores. The impact of resistance on mortality was statistically significant only from the fifth day after the onset of the bacteremia, reaching its peak values at day 30 (adjusted hazard ratio for a Charlson score of 0 at day 30, 9.9 [95% CI, 3.3 to 29.4]; adjusted hazard ratio for a Charlson score of 5 at day 30, 2.6 [95% CI, 0.8 to 8]). This study clarifies the relationship between carbapenem resistance and mortality in patients with P. aeruginosa bacteremia. Although resistance was associated with a higher risk of mortality, the study suggested that this deleterious effect may not be as great during the first days of the bacteremia or in the presence of comorbidities.

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OBJECTIVES To evaluate the advantages of cytology and PCR of high-risk human papilloma virus (PCR HR-HPV) infection in biopsy-derived diagnosis of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL = AIN2/AIN3) in HIV-positive men having sex with men (MSM). METHODS This is a single-centered study conducted between May 2010 and May 2014 in patients (n = 201, mean age 37 years) recruited from our outpatient clinic. Samples of anal canal mucosa were taken into liquid medium for PCR HPV analysis and for cytology. Anoscopy was performed for histology evaluation. RESULTS Anoscopy showed 33.8% were normal, 47.8% low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL), and 18.4% HSIL; 80.2% had HR-HPV. PCR of HR-HPV had greater sensitivity than did cytology (88.8% vs. 75.7%) in HSIL screening, with similar positive (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 20.3 vs. 22.9 and 89.7 vs. 88.1, respectively. Combining both tests increased the sensitivity and NPV of HSIL diagnosis to 100%. Correlation of cytology vs. histology was, generally, very low and PCR of HR-HPV vs. histology was non-existent (<0.2) or low (<0.4). Area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve analysis of cytology and PCR HR-HPV for the diagnosis of HSIL was poor (<0.6). Multivariate regression analysis showed protective factors against HSIL were: viral suppression (OR: 0.312; 95%CI: 0.099-0.984), and/or syphilis infection (OR: 0.193; 95%CI: 0.045-0.827). HSIL risk was associated with HPV-68 genotype (OR: 20.1; 95%CI: 2.04-197.82). CONCLUSIONS When cytology and PCR HR-HPV findings are normal, the diagnosis of pre-malignant HSIL can be reliably ruled-out in HIV-positive patients. HPV suppression with treatment protects against the appearance of HSIL.

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BACKGROUND The aim of our work was to replicate, in a Southern European population, the association reported in Northern populations between PTPRC locus and response to anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) treatment in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We also looked at associations between five RA risk alleles and treatment response. METHODS We evaluated associations between anti-TNF treatment responses assessed by DAS28 change and by EULAR response at six months in 383 Portuguese patients. Univariate and multivariate linear and logistic regression analyses were performed. In a second step to confirm our findings, we pooled our population with 265 Spanish patients. RESULTS No association was found between PTPRC rs10919563 allele and anti-TNF treatment response, neither in Portuguese modeling for several clinical variables nor in the overall population combining Portuguese and Spanish patients. The minor allele for RA susceptibility, rs3761847 SNP in TRAF1/C5 region, was associated with a poor response in linear and logistic univariate and multivariate regression analyses. No association was observed with the other allellic variants. Results were confirmed in the pooled analysis. CONCLUSION This study did not replicate the association between PTPRC and the response to anti-TNF treatment in our Southern European population. We found that TRAF1/C5 risk RA variants potentially influence anti-TNF treatment response.

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BACKGROUND Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is gaining importance as a valuable outcome measure in oral cancer area. The aim of this study was to assess the general and oral HRQoL of oral and oropharyngeal cancer patients 6 or more months after treatment and compare them with a population free from this disease. METHODS A cross-sectional study was carried out with patients treated for oral cancer at least 6 months post-treatment and a gender and age group matched control group. HRQoL was measured with the 12-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12); oral HRQoL (OHRQoL) was evaluated using the Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP-14) and the Oral Impacts on Daily Performances (OIDP). Multivariable regression models assessed the association between the outcomes (SF-12, OHIP-14 and OIDP) and the exposure (patients versus controls), adjusting for sex, age, social class, functional tooth units and presence of illness. RESULTS For patients (n = 142) and controls (n = 142), 64.1% were males. The mean age was 65.2 (standard deviation (sd): 12.9) years in patients and 67.5 (sd: 13.7) years in controls. Patients had worse SF-12 Physical Component Summary scores than controls even in fully the adjusted model [β-coefficient = -0.11 (95% CI: -5.12-(-0.16)]. The differences in SF-12 Mental Component Summary were not statistically significant. Regarding OHRQoL patients had 11.63 (95% CI: 6.77-20.01) higher odds for the OHIP-14 and 21.26 (95% CI: 11.54-39.13) higher odds for OIDP of being in a worse category of OHRQoL compared to controls in the fully adjusted model. CONCLUSION At least 6 months after treatment, oral cancer patients had worse OHRQoL, worse physical HRQoL and similar psychological HRQoL than the general population.

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In recent years, a growing number of studies suggests that increases in air pollution levels may have short-term impact on human health, even at pollution levels similar to or lower than those which have been considered to be safe to date. The different methodological approaches and the varying analysis techniques employed have made it difficult to make a direct comparison among all of the findings, preventing any clear conclusions from being drawn. This has led to multicenter projects such as the APHEA (Short-Term Impact of Air Pollution on Health. A European Approach) within a European Scope. The EMECAM Project falls within the context of the aforesaid multicenter studies and has a wide-ranging projection nationwide within Spain. Fourteen (14) cities throughout Spain were included in this Project (Barcelona, Metropolitan Area of Bilbao, Cartagena, Castellón, Gijón, Huelva, Madrid, Pamplona, Seville, Oviedo, Valencia, Vigo, Vitoria and Saragossa) representing different sociodemographic, climate and environmental situations, adding up to a total of nearly nine million inhabitants. The objective of the EMECAM project is that to asses the short-term impact of air pollution throughout all of the participating cities on the mortality for all causes, on the population and on individuals over age 70, for respiratory and cardiovascular design causes. For this purpose, with an ecological, the time series data analyzed taking the daily deaths, pollutants, temperature data and other factors taken from records kept by public institutions. The period of time throughout which this study was conducted, although not exactly the same for all of the cities involved, runs in all cases from 1990 to 1996. The degree of relationship measured by means of an autoregressive Poisson regression. In the future, the results of each city will be combined by means of a meta-analysis.

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BACKGROUND Little is known about the healthcare process for patients with prostate cancer, mainly because hospital-based data are not routinely published. The main objective of this study was to determine the clinical characteristics of prostate cancer patients, the, diagnostic process and the factors that might influence intervals from consultation to diagnosis and from diagnosis to treatment. METHODS We conducted a multicentre, cohort study in seven hospitals in Spain. Patients' characteristics and diagnostic and therapeutic variables were obtained from hospital records and patients' structured interviews from October 2010 to September 2011. We used a multilevel logistic regression model to examine the association between patient care intervals and various variables influencing these intervals (age, BMI, educational level, ECOG, first specialist consultation, tumour stage, PSA, Gleason score, and presence of symptoms) and calculated the odds ratio (OR) and the interquartile range (IQR). To estimate the random inter-hospital variability, we used the median odds ratio (MOR). RESULTS 470 patients with prostate cancer were included. Mean age was 67.8 (SD: 7.6) years and 75.4 % were physically active. Tumour size was classified as T1 in 41.0 % and as T2 in 40 % of patients, their median Gleason score was 6.0 (IQR:1.0), and 36.1 % had low risk cancer according to the D'Amico classification. The median interval between first consultation and diagnosis was 89 days (IQR:123.5) with no statistically significant variability between centres. Presence of symptoms was associated with a significantly longer interval between first consultation and diagnosis than no symptoms (OR:1.93, 95%CI 1.29-2.89). The median time between diagnosis and first treatment (therapeutic interval) was 75.0 days (IQR:78.0) and significant variability between centres was found (MOR:2.16, 95%CI 1.45-4.87). This interval was shorter in patients with a high PSA value (p = 0.012) and a high Gleason score (p = 0.026). CONCLUSIONS Most incident prostate cancer patients in Spain are diagnosed at an early stage of an adenocarcinoma. The period to complete the diagnostic process is approximately three months whereas the therapeutic intervals vary among centres and are shorter for patients with a worse prognosis. The presence of prostatic symptoms, PSA level, and Gleason score influence all the clinical intervals differently.