Use of Hy's law and a new composite algorithm to predict acute liver failure in patients with drug-induced liver injury.

BACKGROUND & AIMS Hy's Law, which states that hepatocellular drug-induced liver injury (DILI) with jaundice indicates a serious reaction, is used widely to determine risk for acute liver failure (ALF). We aimed to optimize the definition of Hy's Law and to develop a model for predicting ALF in patients with DILI. METHODS We collected data from 771 patients with DILI (805 episodes) from the Spanish DILI registry, from April 1994 through August 2012. We analyzed data collected at DILI recognition and at the time of peak levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and total bilirubin (TBL). RESULTS Of the 771 patients with DILI, 32 developed ALF. Hepatocellular injury, female sex, high levels of TBL, and a high ratio of aspartate aminotransferase (AST):ALT were independent risk factors for ALF. We compared 3 ways to use Hy's Law to predict which patients would develop ALF; all included TBL greater than 2-fold the upper limit of normal (×ULN) and either ALT level greater than 3 × ULN, a ratio (R) value (ALT × ULN/alkaline phosphatase × ULN) of 5 or greater, or a new ratio (nR) value (ALT or AST, whichever produced the highest ×ULN/ alkaline phosphatase × ULN value) of 5 or greater. At recognition of DILI, the R- and nR-based models identified patients who developed ALF with 67% and 63% specificity, respectively, whereas use of only ALT level identified them with 44% specificity. However, the level of ALT and the nR model each identified patients who developed ALF with 90% sensitivity, whereas the R criteria identified them with 83% sensitivity. An equal number of patients who did and did not develop ALF had alkaline phosphatase levels greater than 2 × ULN. An algorithm based on AST level greater than 17.3 × ULN, TBL greater than 6.6 × ULN, and AST:ALT greater than 1.5 identified patients who developed ALF with 82% specificity and 80% sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS When applied at DILI recognition, the nR criteria for Hy's Law provides the best balance of sensitivity and specificity whereas our new composite algorithm provides additional specificity in predicting the ultimate development of ALF.

Frequency and characteristics of familial melanoma in Spain: the FAM-GEM-1 Study.

INTRODUCTION Familial history of melanoma is a well-known risk factor for the disease, and 7% melanoma patients were reported to have a family history of melanoma. Data relating to the frequency and clinical and pathological characteristics of both familial and non-familial melanoma in Spain have been published, but these only include patients from specific areas of Spain and do not represent the data for the whole of Spain. PATIENTS AND METHODS An observational study conducted by the Spanish Group of Melanoma (GEM) analyzed the family history of patients diagnosed with melanoma between 2011 and 2013 in the dermatology and oncology departments. RESULTS In all, 1047 patients were analyzed, and 69 (6.6%) fulfilled criteria for classical familial melanoma (two or more first-degree relatives diagnosed with melanoma). Taking into account other risk factors for familial melanoma, such as multiple melanoma, pancreatic cancer in the family or second-degree relatives with melanoma, the number of patients fulfilling the criteria increased to 165 (15.8%). Using a univariate analysis, we determined that a Breslow index of less than 1 mm, negative mitosis, multiple melanoma, and a history of sunburns in childhood were more frequent in familial melanoma patients, but a multivariate analysis revealed no differences in any pathological or clinical factor between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS Similar to that observed in other countries, familial melanoma accounts for 6.6% of melanoma diagnoses in Spain. Although no differences in the multivariate analysis were found, some better prognosis factors, such as Breslow index, seem more frequent in familial melanoma, which reflect a better early detection marker and/or a different biological behavior.

Clinical and epidemiological features and prognosis of complicated pyelonephritis: a prospective observational single hospital-based study.

BACKGROUND Complicated pyelonephritis (cPN), a common cause of hospital admission, is still a poorly-understood entity given the difficulty involved in its correct definition. The aim of this study was to analyze the main epidemiological, clinical, and microbiological characteristics of cPN and its prognosis in a large cohort of patients with cPN. METHODS We conducted a prospective, observational study including 1325 consecutive patients older than 14 years diagnosed with cPN and admitted to a tertiary university hospital between 1997-2013. After analyzing the main demographic, clinical and microbiological data, covariates found to be associated with attributable mortality in univariate analysis were included in a multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS Of the 1325 patients, 689 (52%) were men and 636 (48%) women; median age 63 years, interquartile range [IQR] (46.5-73). Nine hundred and forty patients (70.9%) had functional or structural abnormalities in the urinary tract, 215 (16.2%) were immunocompromised, 152 (11.5%) had undergone a previous urinary tract instrumentation, and 196 (14.8%) had a long-term bladder catheter, nephrostomy tube or ureteral catheter. Urine culture was positive in 813 (67.7%) of the 1251 patients in whom it was done, and in the 1032 patients who had a blood culture, 366 (34%) had bacteraemia. Escherichia coli was the causative agent in 615 episodes (67%), Klebsiella spp in 73 (7.9%) and Proteus ssp in 61 (6.6%). Fourteen point one percent of GNB isolates were ESBL producers. In total, 343 patients (25.9%) developed severe sepsis and 165 (12.5%) septic shock. Crude mortality was 6.5% and attributable mortality was 4.1%. Multivariate analysis showed that an age >75 years (OR 2.77; 95% CI, 1.35-5.68), immunosuppression (OR 3.14; 95% CI, 1.47-6.70), and septic shock (OR 58.49; 95% CI, 26.6-128.5) were independently associated with attributable mortality. CONCLUSIONS cPN generates a high morbidity and mortality and likely a great consumption of healthcare resources. This study highlights the factors directly associated with mortality, though further studies are needed in the near future aimed at identifying subgroups of low-risk patients susceptible to outpatient management.