Risk of type 2 diabetes according to traditional and emerging anthropometric indices in Spain, a Mediterranean country with high prevalence of obesity: results from a large-scale prospective cohort study.

Background: Obesity is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). A proper anthropometric characterisation of T2DM risk is essential for disease prevention and clinical risk assessement. Methods: Longitudinal study in 37 733 participants (63% women) of the Spanish EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) cohort without prevalent diabetes. Detailed questionnaire information was collected at baseline and anthropometric data gathered following standard procedures. A total of 2513 verified incident T2DM cases occurred after 12.1 years of mean follow-up. Multivariable Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios of T2DM by levels of anthropometric variables. Results: Overall and central obesity were independently associated with T2DM risk. BMI showed the strongest association with T2DM in men whereas waist-related indices were stronger independent predictors in women. Waist-to-height ratio revealed the largest area under the ROC curve in men and women, with optimal cut-offs at 0.60 and 0.58, respectively. The most discriminative waist circumference (WC) cut-off values were 99.4 cm in men and 90.4 cm in women. Absolute risk of T2DM was higher in men than women for any combination of age, BMI and WC categories, and remained low in normal-waist women. The population risk of T2DM attributable to obesity was 17% in men and 31% in women. Conclusions: Diabetes risk was associated with higher overall and central obesity indices even at normal BMI and WC values. The measurement of waist circumference in the clinical setting is strongly recommended for the evaluation of future T2DM risk in women.

Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

Gender differences in cardiovascular risk factors in HIV infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: Data from the Spanish Coronator study.

Purpose: HIV-infected patients present an increased cardiovascular risk (CVR) of multifactorial origin, usually lower in women than in men. Information by gender about prevalence of modifiable risk factors is scarce. Methods: Coronator is a cross-sectional survey of a representative sample of HIV-infected patients on ART within 10 hospitals across Spain in 2011. Variables include sociodemographics, CVR factors and 10-year CV disease risk estimation (Regicor: Framingham score adapted to the Spanish population). Results: We included 860 patients (76.3% male) with no history of CVD. Median age 45.6 years; 84.1% were Spaniards; 29.9% women were IDUs. Median time since HIV diagnosis for men and women was 10 and 13 years (p=0.001), 28% had an AIDS diagnosis. Median CD4 cell count was 596 cells/mm3, 88% had undetectable viral load. Median time on ART was 91 and 108 months (p=0.017). There was a family history of early CVD in 113 men (17.9%) and 41 women (20.6%). Classical CVR factors are described in the table. Median (IQR) Regicor Score was 3% (2-5) for men and 2% (1-3) for women (p=0.000), and the proportion of subjects with mid-high risk (>5%) was 26.1% for men and 9.4% for women (p=0.000). Conclusions: In this population of HIV-infected patients, women have lower cardiovascular risk than men, partly due to higher levels of HDL cholesterol. Of note is the high frequency of smoking, abdominal obesity and sedentary lifestyle in our population. (Table Presented).

Lifetime alcohol use and overall and cause-specific mortality in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) study.

OBJECTIVES To investigate the role of factors that modulate the association between alcohol and mortality, and to provide estimates of absolute risk of death. DESIGN The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC). SETTING 23 centres in 10 countries. PARTICIPANTS 380 395 men and women, free of cancer, diabetes, heart attack or stroke at enrolment, followed up for 12.6 years on average. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES 20 453 fatal events, of which 2053 alcohol-related cancers (ARC, including cancers of upper aerodigestive tract, liver, colorectal and female breast), 4187 cardiovascular diseases/coronary heart disease (CVD/CHD), 856 violent deaths and injuries. Lifetime alcohol use was assessed at recruitment. RESULTS HRs comparing extreme drinkers (≥30 g/day in women and ≥60 g/day in men) to moderate drinkers (0.1-4.9 g/day) were 1.27 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.43) in women and 1.53 (1.39 to 1.68) in men. Strong associations were observed for ARC mortality, in men particularly, and for violent deaths and injuries, in men only. No associations were observed for CVD/CHD mortality among drinkers, whereby HRs were higher in never compared to moderate drinkers. Overall mortality seemed to be more strongly related to beer than wine use, particularly in men. The 10-year risks of overall death for women aged 60 years, drinking more than 30 g/day was 5% and 7%, for never and current smokers, respectively. Corresponding figures in men consuming more than 60 g/day were 11% and 18%, in never and current smokers, respectively. In competing risks analyses, mortality due to CVD/CHD was more pronounced than ARC in men, while CVD/CHD and ARC mortality were of similar magnitude in women. CONCLUSIONS In this large European cohort, alcohol use was positively associated with overall mortality, ARC and violent death and injuries, but marginally to CVD/CHD. Absolute risks of death observed in EPIC suggest that alcohol is an important determinant of total mortality.

Unanswered clinical questions in the management of cardiometabolic risk in the elderly: a statement of the Spanish society of internal medicine.

BACKGROUND Despite the progressive increase in life expectancy and the relationship between aging with multi-morbidities and the increased use of healthcare resources, current clinical practice guidelines (CPG) on cardiometabolic risk cannot be adequately applied to elderly subjects with multiple chronic conditions. Its management frequently becomes complicated by both, an excessive use of medications that may lead to overtreatment, drug interactions and increased toxicity, and errors in dosage and non-compliance. Concerned by this gap, the Spanish Society of Internal Medicine created a group of independent experts on cardiometabolic risk who discussed what they considered to be unanswered questions in the management of elderly patients. DISCUSSION Current guidelines do not specifically address the problem of elderly with multiple chronic conditions. For this reason, the combined use of the limited available evidence, clinical experience and common sense, could all help us to address this unmet need. In very old people, life expectancy and functionality are the most important factors for guiding potential treatments. Their higher propensity to develop serious adverse events and their shorter lifespan could prevent them from obtaining the potential benefits of the interventions administered. SUMMARY In this document, experts on cardiometabolic risk factors have established a number of consensual recommendations that have taken into account international guidelines and clinical experience, and have also considered the more effective use of healthcare resources. This document is intended to provide general recommendations for clinicians and to promote the effective use of procedures and medications.

Plasma Elaidic Acid Level as Biomarker of Industrial Trans Fatty Acids and Risk of Weight Change: Report from the EPIC Study.

BACKGROUND Few epidemiological studies have examined the association between dietary trans fatty acids and weight gain, and the evidence remains inconsistent. The main objective of the study was to investigate the prospective association between biomarker of industrial trans fatty acids and change in weight within the large study European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. METHODS Baseline plasma fatty acid concentrations were determined in a representative EPIC sample from the 23 participating EPIC centers. A total of 1,945 individuals were followed for a median of 4.9 years to monitor weight change. The association between elaidic acid level and percent change of weight was investigated using a multinomial logistic regression model, adjusted by length of follow-up, age, energy, alcohol, smoking status, physical activity, and region. RESULTS In women, doubling elaidic acid was associated with a decreased risk of weight loss (odds ratio (OR) = 0.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.55-0.88, p = 0.002) and a trend was observed with an increased risk of weight gain during the 5-year follow-up (OR = 1.23, 95% CI = 0.97-1.56, p = 0.082) (p-trend<.0001). In men, a trend was observed for doubling elaidic acid level and risk of weight loss (OR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.66-1.01, p = 0.062) while no significant association was found with risk of weight gain during the 5-year follow-up (OR = 1.08, 95% CI = 0.88-1.33, p = 0.454). No association was found for saturated and cis-monounsaturated fatty acids. CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that a high intake of industrial trans fatty acids may decrease the risk of weight loss, particularly in women. Prevention of obesity should consider limiting the consumption of highly processed foods, the main source of industrially-produced trans fatty acids.

Circulating prolactin and in situ breast cancer risk in the European EPIC cohort: a case-control study.

INTRODUCTION The relationship between circulating prolactin and invasive breast cancer has been investigated previously, but the association between prolactin levels and in situ breast cancer risk has received less attention. METHODS We analysed the relationship between pre-diagnostic prolactin levels and the risk of in situ breast cancer overall, and by menopausal status and use of postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) at blood donation. Conditional logistic regression was used to assess this association in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, including 307 in situ breast cancer cases and their matched control subjects. RESULTS We found a significant positive association between higher circulating prolactin levels and risk of in situ breast cancer among all women [pre-and postmenopausal combined, ORlog2 = 1.35 (95%CI 1.04-1.76), Ptrend = 0.03]. No statistically significant heterogeneity was found between prolactin levels and in situ cancer risk by menopausal status (Phet = 0.98) or baseline HT use (Phet = 0.20), although the observed association was more pronounced among postmenopausal women using HT compared to non-users (Ptrend = 0.06 vs Ptrend = 0.35). In subgroup analyses, the observed positive association was strongest in women diagnosed with in situ breast tumors <4 years compared to ≥4 years after blood donation (Ptrend = 0.01 vs Ptrend = 0.63; Phet = 0.04) and among nulliparous women compared to parous women (Ptrend = 0.03 vs Ptrend = 0.15; Phet = 0.07). CONCLUSIONS Our data extends prior research linking prolactin and invasive breast cancer to the outcome of in situ breast tumours and shows that higher circulating prolactin is associated with increased risk of in situ breast cancer.