What Belongs Where? Variable Selection for Zero-Inflated Count Models with an Application to the Demand for Health Care

This paper develops stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) for zero-inflated count models which are commonly used in health economics. This allows for either model averaging or model selection in situations with many potential regressors. The proposed techniques are applied to a data set from Germany considering the demand for health care. A package for the free statistical software environment R is provided.

Eye Care Service in Scotland: Did the Scots Get it Right?

In March 2004, the Scottish government announced a review of eye care services in Scotland, which culminated in the introduction of free eye examinations from 1st April 2006. This free eye examination is not just a sight test; it is a thorough examination to check the health of the patient’s eyes and to look for signs of other health problems. The Scottish government commissioned private ophthalmic optician practices to perform these eye examinations. Consequently, since April 2006 individuals in Scotland could walk into any high street optometry practice and get a ‘free’ eye examination funded under the NHS.

Self-Confidence, Overconfidence and Prenatal Testosterone Exposure: Evidence from the Lab

This paper examines whether the degree of confidence and overconfidence in one's ability is determined biologically. In articular, we study whether foetal testosterone exposure correlates with an incentive-compatible measure of confidence within an experimental setting. We find that men (rather than women) who were exposed to high testosterone levels in their mother's womb are less likely to overestimate their actual performance, which in turn helps them to gain higher monetary rewards. Men exposed to low prenatal testosterone levels, instead, set unrealistically high expectations which results in self-defeating behaviour. These results from the lab are able to reconcile hitherto disconnected evidence from the field, by providing a link between traders'overconfidence bias, long-term financial returns and prenatal testosterone exposure.