Bayesian Inference in the Time Varying Cointegration Model

There are both theoretical and empirical reasons for believing that the parameters of macroeconomic models may vary over time. However, work with time-varying parameter models has largely involved Vector autoregressions (VARs), ignoring cointegration. This is despite the fact that cointegration plays an important role in informing macroeconomists on a range of issues. In this paper we develop time varying parameter models which permit cointegration. Time-varying parameter VARs (TVP-VARs) typically use state space representations to model the evolution of parameters. In this paper, we show that it is not sensible to use straightforward extensions of TVP-VARs when allowing for cointegration. Instead we develop a specification which allows for the cointegrating space to evolve over time in a manner comparable to the random walk variation used with TVP-VARs. The properties of our approach are investigated before developing a method of posterior simulation. We use our methods in an empirical investigation involving a permanent/transitory variance decomposition for inflation.

Testing the Tunnel Effect: Comparison, Age and Happiness in UK and German Panels

In contrast to previous results combining all ages we find positive effects of comparison income on happiness for the under 45s, and negative effects for those over 45. In the BHPS these coefficients are several times the magnitude of own income effects. In GSOEP they cancel to give no effect of effect of comparison income on life satisfaction in the whole sample, when controlling for fixed effects, and time-in-panel, and with flexible, age-group dummies. The residual age-happiness relationship is hump-shaped in all three countries. Results are consistent with a simple life cycle model of relative income under uncertainty.