A New Test of the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis: Bounds Approach and Structural Breaks

We test the real interest rate parity hypothesis using data for the G7 countries over the period 1970-2008. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we utilize the ARDL bounds approach of Pesaran et al. (2001) which allows us to overcome uncertainty about the order of integration of real interest rates. Second, we test for structural breaks in the underlying relationship using the multiple structural breaks test of Bai and Perron (1998, 2003). Our results indicate significant parameter instability and suggest that, despite the advances in economic and financial integration, real interest rate parity has not fully recovered from a breakdown in the 1980s.

A Bootstrap Neural Network Based Heterogeneous Panel Unit Root Test: Application to Exchange Rates

This paper proposes a bootstrap artificial neural network based panel unit root test in a dynamic heterogeneous panel context. An application to a panel of bilateral real exchange rate series with the US Dollar from the 20 major OECD countries is provided to investigate the Purchase Power Parity (PPP). The combination of neural network and bootstrapping significantly changes the findings of the economic study in favour of PPP.

Using Effluent Charges in Promoting Investment in Water Pollution Control Technology: A Model of Coordination Failure among Firms

Untreated wastewater being directly discharged into rivers is a very harmful environmental hazard that needs to be tackled urgently in many countries. In order to safeguard the river ecosystem and reduce water pollution, it is important to have an effluent charge policy that promotes the investment of wastewater treatment technology by domestic firms. This paper considers the strategic interaction between the government and the domestic firms regarding the investment in the wastewater treatment technology and the design of optimal e­ffluent charge policy that should be implemented. In this model, the higher is the proportion of non-investing firms, the higher would be the probability of having to incur an e­ffluent charge and the higher would be that charge. On one hand the government needs to impose a sufficiently strict policy to ensure that firms have strong incentive to invest. On the other hand, it cannot be too strict that it drives out firms which cannot afford to invest in such expensive technology. The paper analyses the factors that affect the probability of investment in this technology. It also explains the difficulty of imposing a strict environment policy in countries that have too many small firms which cannot afford to invest unless subsidised.

A Nonlinear Panel Unit Root Test under Cross Section Dependence

We propose a nonlinear heterogeneous panel unit root test for testing the null hypothesis of unit-roots processes against the alternative that allows a proportion of units to be generated by globally stationary ESTAR processes and a remaining non-zero proportion to be generated by unit root processes. The proposed test is simple to implement and accommodates cross sectional dependence. We show that the distribution of the test statistic is free of nuisance parameters as (N, T) −! 1. Monte Carlo simulation shows that our test holds correct size and under the hypothesis that data are generated by globally stationary ESTAR processes has a better power than the recent test proposed in Pesaran [2007]. Various applications are provided.

Caught Between Theory and Practice: Government, Market, and Regulatory Failure in Electricity Sector Reforms

The world-wide electricity sector reforms of the early 1990s have revealed the considerable complexities of making market driven reforms in network and infrastructure industries. This paper reflects on the experiences to date with the process and outcomes of marketbased electricity reforms across less-developed, transition and developed economies. The reforms outcomes suggest similar problems facing the electricity sector of these countries though their contexts vary significantly. Many developing and developed economies continue to have investment inadequacy concerns and the need to balance economy efficiency, sustainability and social equity after more than two decades of experience with reforms. We also use a case study of selected countries that in many respects represent the current state of the reform though they are rarely examined. Nepal, Belarus and Ireland are chosen as country-specific case studies for this purpose. We conclude that the changing dynamics of the electricity supply industry (ESI) and policy objectives imply that analysing the success and failure of reforms will indeed remain a complex process.

A Consistent Nonparametric Bootstrap Test of Exogeneity

This paper proposes a novel way of testing exogeneity of an explanatory variable without any parametric assumptions in the presence of a "conditional" instrumental variable. A testable implication is derived that if an explanatory variable is endogenous, the conditional distribution of the outcome given the endogenous variable is not independent of its instrumental variable(s). The test rejects the null hypothesis with probability one if the explanatory variable is endogenous and it detects alternatives converging to the null at a rate n..1=2:We propose a consistent nonparametric bootstrap test to implement this testable implication. We show that the proposed bootstrap test can be asymptotically justi.ed in the sense that it produces asymptotically correct size under the null of exogeneity, and it has unit power asymptotically. Our nonparametric test can be applied to the cases in which the outcome is generated by an additively non-separable structural relation or in which the outcome is discrete, which has not been studied in the literature.

The convenient calculation of some test statistics in models of discrete choice

The paper considers the use of artificial regression in calculating different types of score test when the log

A test of long memory hypothesis based on self-similarity

This paper develops a new test of true versus spurious long memory, based on log-periodogram estimation of the long memory parameter using skip-sampled data. A correction factor is derived to overcome the bias in this estimator due to aliasing. The procedure is designed to be used in the context of a conventional test of significance of the long memory parameter, and composite test procedure described that has the properties of known asymptotic size and consistency. The test is implemented using the bootstrap, with the distribution under the null hypothesis being approximated using a dependent-sample bootstrap technique to approximate short-run dependence following fractional differencing. The properties of the test are investigated in a set of Monte Carlo experiments. The procedure is illustrated by applications to exchange rate volatility and dividend growth series.