Do Productivity Improvements Move Us Along the Environmental Kuznets Curve?

The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis focuses on the argument that rising prosperity will eventually be accompanied by falling pollution levels as a result of one or more of three factors: (1) structural change in the economy; (2) demand for environmental quality increasing at a more-than-proportional rate; (3) technological progress. Here, we focus on the third of these. In particular, energy efficiency is commonly regarded as a key element of climate policy in terms of achieving reductions in economy-wide CO2 emissions over time. However, a growing literature suggests that improvements in energy efficiency will lead to rebound (or backfire) effects that partially (or wholly) offset energy savings from efficiency improvements. Where efficiency improvements are aimed at the production side of the economy, the net impact of increased efficiency in any input to production will depend on the combination and relative strength of substitution, output/competitiveness, composition and income effects that occur in response to changes in effective and actual factor prices, as well as on the structure of the economy in question, including which sectors are targeted with the efficiency improvement. In this paper we consider whether increasing labour productivity will have a more beneficial, or more predictable, impact on CO2/GDP ratios than improvements in energy efficiency. We do this by using CGE models of the Scottish regional and UK national economies to analyse the impacts of a simple 5% exogenous (and costless) increase in energy or labour augmenting technological progress.

How do improvements in labour productivity in the Scottish economy affect the UK position on the Environmental Kuznets Curve?

The research reported here is an output of Karen Turner’s ESRC Climate Change Leadership Fellow project (Grant reference RES-066-27-0029). However, this research builds on previous work funded by the ESRC on modelling the economic and environmental impacts of technological improvement (Grant reference: RES-061-25-0010) and by the EPSRC through the SuperGen Marine Energy Research Consortium on accounting for and modeling environmental indicators (Grant reference: EP/E040136/1).

Adaptive Continuous time Markov Chain Approximation Model to General Jump-Diusions

We propose a non-equidistant Q rate matrix formula and an adaptive numerical algorithm for a continuous time Markov chain to approximate jump-diffusions with affine or non-affine functional specifications. Our approach also accommodates state-dependent jump intensity and jump distribution, a flexibility that is very hard to achieve with other numerical methods. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test shows that the proposed Markov chain transition density converges to the one given by the likelihood expansion formula as in Ait-Sahalia (2008). We provide numerical examples for European stock option pricing in Black and Scholes (1973), Merton (1976) and Kou (2002).

A Simple Characterization of Dynamic Completeness in Continuous Time

This paper investigates dynamic completeness of financial markets in which the underlying risk process is a multi-dimensional Brownian motion and the risky securities dividends geometric Brownian motions. A sufficient condition, that the instantaneous dispersion matrix of the relative dividends is non-degenerate, was established recently in the literature for single-commodity, pure-exchange economies with many heterogenous agents, under the assumption that the intermediate flows of all dividends, utilities, and endowments are analytic functions. For the current setting, a different mathematical argument in which analyticity is not needed shows that a slightly weaker condition suffices for general pricing kernels. That is, dynamic completeness obtains irrespectively of preferences, endowments, and other structural elements (such as whether or not the budget constraints include only pure exchange, whether or not the time horizon is finite with lump-sum dividends available on the terminal date, etc.)