Preliminary regional rockfall hazard mapping using LIDAR-based slope frequency distribution and CONEFALL modeling

A factor limiting preliminary rockfall hazard mapping at regional scale is often the lack of knowledge of potential source areas. Nowadays, high resolution topographic data (LiDAR) can account for realistic landscape details even at large scale. With such fine-scale morphological variability, quantitative geomorphometric analyses become a relevant approach for delineating potential rockfall instabilities. Using digital elevation model (DEM)-based ?slope families? concept over areas of similar lithology and cliffs and screes zones available from the 1:25,000 topographic map, a susceptibility rockfall hazard map was drawn up in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland, in order to provide a relevant hazard overview. Slope surfaces over morphometrically-defined thresholds angles were considered as rockfall source zones. 3D modelling (CONEFALL) was then applied on each of the estimated source zones in order to assess the maximum runout length. Comparison with known events and other rockfall hazard assessments are in good agreement, showing that it is possible to assess rockfall activities over large areas from DEM-based parameters and topographical elements.

A frequency distribution approach to hotspot identification

We present a new global method for the identification of hotspots in conservation and ecology. The method is based on the identification of spatial structure properties through cumulative relative frequency distributions curves, and is tested with two case studies, the identification of fish density hotspots and terrestrial vertebrate species diversity hotspots. Results from the frequency distribution method are compared with those from standard techniques among local, partially local and global methods. Our approach offers the main advantage to be independent from the selection of any threshold, neighborhood, or other parameter that affect most of the currently available methods for hotspot analysis. The two case studies show how such elements of arbitrariness of the traditional methods influence both size and location of the identified hotspots, and how this new global method can be used for a more objective selection of hotspots.

Temporal distribution and magnitude of the vulnerability period around stroke depend on stroke subtype.

Background: We aimed to analyze the rate and time distribution of pre- and post-morbid cerebrovascular events in a single ischemic stroke population, and whether these depend on the etiology of the index stroke. Methods: In 2,203 consecutive patients admitted to a single stroke center registry (ASTRAL), the ischemic stroke that led to admission was considered the index event. Frequency distribution and cumulative relative distribution graphs of the most recent and first recurrent event (ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, intracranial or subarachnoid hemorrhage) were drawn in weekly and daily intervals for all strokes and for all stroke types. Results: The frequency of events at identical time points before and after the index stroke was mostly reduced in the first week after (vs. before) stroke (1.0 vs. 4.2%, p < 0.001) and the first month (2.7 vs. 7.4%, p < 0.001), and then ebbed over the first year (8.4 vs. 13.1%, p < 0.001). On daily basis, the peak frequency was noticed at day -1 (1.6%) with a reduction to 0.7% on the index day and 0.17% 24 h after. The event rate in patients with atherosclerotic stroke was particularly high around the index event, but 1-year cumulative recurrence rate was similar in all stroke types. Conclusions: We confirm a short window of increased vulnerability in ischemic stroke and show a 4-, 3- and 2-fold reduction in post-stroke events at 1 week, 1 month and 1 year, respectively, compared to identical pre-stroke periods. This break in the 'stroke wave' is particularly striking after atherosclerotic and lacunar strokes.

Rates of cultural change and patterns of cultural accumulation in stochastic models of social transmission.

Cultural variation in a population is affected by the rate of occurrence of cultural innovations, whether such innovations are preferred or eschewed, how they are transmitted between individuals in the population, and the size of the population. An innovation, such as a modification in an attribute of a handaxe, may be lost or may become a property of all handaxes, which we call "fixation of the innovation." Alternatively, several innovations may attain appreciable frequencies, in which case properties of the frequency distribution-for example, of handaxe measurements-is important. Here we apply the Moran model from the stochastic theory of population genetics to study the evolution of cultural innovations. We obtain the probability that an initially rare innovation becomes fixed, and the expected time this takes. When variation in cultural traits is due to recurrent innovation, copy error, and sampling from generation to generation, we describe properties of this variation, such as the level of heterogeneity expected in the population. For all of these, we determine the effect of the mode of social transmission: conformist, where there is a tendency for each naïve newborn to copy the most popular variant; pro-novelty bias, where the newborn prefers a specific variant if it exists among those it samples; one-to-many transmission, where the variant one individual carries is copied by all newborns while that individual remains alive. We compare our findings with those predicted by prevailing theories for rates of cultural change and the distribution of cultural variation.

Quantitative distribution of parvalbumin, calretinin, and calbindin D-28k immunoreactive neurons in the visual cortex of normal and Alzheimer cases.

The distribution of parvalbumin (PV), calretinin (CR), and calbindin (CB) immunoreactive neurons was studied with the help of an image analysis system (Vidas/Zeiss) in the primary visual area 17 and associative area 18 (Brodmann) of Alzheimer and control brains. In neither of these areas was there a significant difference between Alzheimer and control groups in the mean number of PV, CR, or CB immunoreactive neuronal profiles, counted in a cortical column going from pia to white matter. Significant differences in the mean densities (numbers per square millimeter of cortex) of PV, CR, and CB immunoreactive neuronal profiles were not observed either between groups or areas, but only between superficial, middle, and deep layers within areas 17 and 18. The optical density of the immunoreactive neuropil was also similar in Alzheimer and controls, correlating with the numerical density of immunoreactive profiles in superficial, middle, and deep layers. The frequency distribution of neuronal areas indicated significant differences between PV, CR, and CB immunoreactive neuronal profiles in both areas 17 and 18, with more large PV than CR and CB positive profiles. There were also significantly more small and less large PV and CR immunoreactive neuronal profiles in Alzheimer than in controls. Our data show that, although the brain pathology is moderate to severe, there is no prominent decrease of PV, CR and CB positive neurons in the visual cortex of Alzheimer brains, but only selective changes in neuronal perikarya.

Adiponectin isoform distribution in serum and in follicular fluid of women undergoing treatment by ICSI.

Adiponectin is an adipokine, present in the circulation in comparatively high concentrations and different molecular weight isoforms. For the first time, the distribution of these isoforms in serum and follicular fluid (FF) and their usefulness as biological markers for infertility investigations was studied. In vitro study. University based hospital. Fifty-four women undergoing intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). Oocytes were retrieved, fertilized in vitro using ICSI, and the resulting embryos transferred. Serum was collected immediately prior to oocyte retrieval. Adiponectin isoforms (high molecular weight (HMW), medium and low molecular weight) were determined in serum and FF. Total adiponectin and the different isoform levels were compared with leptin and ovarian steroid concentrations. Adiponectin isoforms in serum and FF. Adiponectin isoform distribution differed between serum and FF; the HMW fraction made up half of all adiponectin in the serum but only 23.3% in the FF. Total and HMW adiponectin in both serum and FF correlated negatively with the body mass index and the concentration of leptin. No correlations were observed for total adiponectin or its isoforms with estradiol, progesterone, anti-Mullerian hormone, inhibin B, or the total follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) dose administered during the ovarian stimulation phase. This study shows for the first time that adiponectin isoform distribution varies between the serum and FF compartments in gonadotropin stimulated patients. A trend towards higher HMW adiponectin serum levels in successful ICSI cycles compared to implantation failures was observed; studies with larger patient groups are required to confirm this observation.

The distribution of the dinucleotide CpG and cytosine methylation in the vitellogenin gene family.

Sequence data from regions of five vertebrate vitellogenin genes were used to examine the frequency, distribution, and mutability of the dinucleotide CpG, the preferred modification site for eukaryotic DNA methyltransferases. The observed level of the CpG dinucleotide in all five genes was markedly lower than that expected from the known mononucleotide frequencies. CpG suppression was greater in introns than in exons. CpG-containing codons were found to be avoided in the vitellogenin genes, but not completely despite the redundancy of the genetic code. Frequency and distribution patterns of this dinucleotide varied dramatically among these otherwise closely related genes. Dense clusters of CpG dinucleotides tended to appear in regions of either functional or structural interest (e.g., in the transposon-like Vi-element of Xenopus) and these clusters contained 5-methylcytosine (5 mC). 5 mC is known to undergo deamination to form thymidine, but the extent to which this transition occurs in the heavily methylated genomes of vertebrates and its contribution to CpG suppression are still unclear. Sequence comparison of the methylated vitellogenin gene regions identified C----T and G----A substitutions that were found to occur at relatively high frequencies. The predicted products of CpG deamination, TpG and CpA, were elevated. These findings are consistent with the view that CpG distribution and methylation are interdependent and that deamination of 5 mC plays an important role in promoting evolutionary change at the nucleotide sequence level.

Quantifying consistency of Event Related Potentials across subjects based on single-trial topographic analysis

Introduction: Non-invasive brain imaging techniques often contrast experimental conditions across a cohort of participants, obfuscating distinctions in individual performance and brain mechanisms that are better characterised by the inter-trial variability. To overcome such limitations, we developed topographic analysis methods for single-trial EEG data [1]. So far this was typically based on time-frequency analysis of single-electrode data or single independent components. The method's efficacy is demonstrated for event-related responses to environmental sounds, hitherto studied at an average event-related potential (ERP) level. Methods: Nine healthy subjects participated to the experiment. Auditory meaningful sounds of common objects were used for a target detection task [2]. On each block, subjects were asked to discriminate target sounds, which were living or man-made auditory objects. Continuous 64-channel EEG was acquired during the task. Two datasets were considered for each subject including single-trial of the two conditions, living and man-made. The analysis comprised two steps. In the first part, a mixture of Gaussians analysis [3] provided representative topographies for each subject. In the second step, conditional probabilities for each Gaussian provided statistical inference on the structure of these topographies across trials, time, and experimental conditions. Similar analysis was conducted at group-level. Results: Results show that the occurrence of each map is structured in time and consistent across trials both at the single-subject and at group level. Conducting separate analyses of ERPs at single-subject and group levels, we could quantify the consistency of identified topographies and their time course of activation within and across participants as well as experimental conditions. A general agreement was found with previous analysis at average ERP level. Conclusions: This novel approach to single-trial analysis promises to have impact on several domains. In clinical research, it gives the possibility to statistically evaluate single-subject data, an essential tool for analysing patients with specific deficits and impairments and their deviation from normative standards. In cognitive neuroscience, it provides a novel tool for understanding behaviour and brain activity interdependencies at both single-subject and at group levels. In basic neurophysiology, it provides a new representation of ERPs and promises to cast light on the mechanisms of its generation and inter-individual variability.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on genetic diversity in an endangered lizard species.

Many endangered species persist as a series of isolated populations, with some populations more genetically diverse than others. If climate change disproportionately threatens the most diverse populations, the species' ability to adapt (and hence its long-term viability) may be affected more severely than would be apparent by its numerical reduction. In the present study, we combine genetic data with modelling of species distributions under climate change to document this situation in an endangered lizard (Eulamprus leuraensis) from montane southeastern Australia. The species is known from only about 40 isolated swamps. Genetic diversity of lizard populations is greater in some sites than others, presumably reflecting consistently high habitat suitability over evolutionary time. Species distribution modelling suggests that the most genetically diverse populations are the ones most at risk from climate change, so that global warming will erode the species' genetic variability faster than it curtails the species' geographic distribution.

Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS) for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced single events including the location of the ignition points and additional information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes (lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters detected in the northern mountainous area.

Genotyping faeces reveals facultative kin association on capercaillie's leks

The role that kin selection might play in the evolution of lekking in birds remains controversial. Recent molecular data suggest that males displaying on leks are related. Here we investigated the genetic structure and pattern of relatedness on leks of a declining population of capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) using microsatellite genetic markers. Since the species is highly sensitive to disturbance, we adopted a non-invasive method by using faecal samples collected in the field. Based on a dataset of 50 males distributed in 6 sub-populations, we found significant genetic structuring among sub-populations, and a significant pattern of isolation by distance among leks. Estimates of relatedness showed that males displaying on the same lek were related, even when controlling for the effects of genetical differentiation among sub-populations. In addition, the frequency distribution of relatedness values indicated that leks contain a mixture of close kin and unrelated individuals (34 and 66%, respectively). This pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that leks often contain kin associations, which might be due to very restricted dispersal of some of the males or to joint dispersal of kin. The results are discussed with respect to their implication for the conservation of endangered populations.

Age-associated modulations of cerebral oscillatory patterns related to attention control.

Visual attention depends on bottom-up sensory activation and top-down attentional guidance. Although aging is known to affect sensory processing, its impact on the top-down control of attention remains a matter of debate. We investigated age-related modulations of brain oscillatory activity during visual attention using a variant of the attention network test (ANT) in 20 young and 28 elderly adults. We examined the EEG oscillatory responses to warning and target signals, and explored the correlates of temporal and spatial orienting as well as conflict resolution at target presentation. Time-frequency analysis was performed between 4 and 30Hz, and the relationship between behavioral and brain oscillatory responses was analyzed. Whereas temporal cueing and conflict had similar reaction time effects in both age groups, spatial cueing was more beneficial to older than younger subjects. In the absence of cue, posterior alpha activation was drastically reduced in older adults, pointing to an age-related decline in anticipatory attention. Following both cues and targets, older adults displayed pronounced motor-related activation in the low beta frequency range at the expense of attention-related posterior alpha activation prominent in younger adults. These findings support the recruitment of alternative motor-related circuits in the elderly, in line with the dedifferentiation hypothesis. Furthermore, older adults showed reduced midparietal alpha inhibition induced by temporal orienting as well as decreased posterior alpha activation associated with both spatial orienting and conflict resolution. Altogether, the results are consistent with an overall reduction of task-related alpha activity in the elderly, and provide functional evidence that younger and older adults engage distinct brain circuits at different oscillatory frequencies during attentional functions.

Visual functions in the healthy and schizophrenic brain : from stimulus control to illusory perceptions using electrical neuroimaging

ABSTRACT (FRENCH)Ce travail de thèse basé sur le système visuel chez les sujets sains et chez les patients schizophrènes, s'articule autour de trois articles scientifiques publiés ou en cours de publication. Ces articles traitent des sujets suivants : le premier article présente une nouvelle méthode de traitement des composantes physiques des stimuli (luminance et fréquence spatiale). Le second article montre, à l'aide d'analyses de données EEG, un déficit de la voie magnocellulaire dans le traitement visuel des illusions chez les patients schizophrènes. Ceci est démontré par l'absence de modulation de la composante PI chez les patients schizophrènes contrairement aux sujets sains. Cette absence est induite par des stimuli de type illusion Kanizsa de différentes excentricités. Finalement, le troisième article, également à l'aide de méthodes de neuroimagerie électrique (EEG), montre que le traitement des contours illusoires se trouve dans le complexe latéro-occipital (LOC), à l'aide d'illusion « misaligned gratings ». De plus il révèle que les activités démontrées précédemment dans les aires visuelles primaires sont dues à des inférences « top- down ».Afin de permettre la compréhension de ces trois articles, l'introduction de ce manuscrit présente les concepts essentiels. De plus des méthodes d'analyses de temps-fréquence sont présentées. L'introduction est divisée en quatre parties : la première présente le système visuel depuis les cellules retino-corticales aux deux voix du traitement de l'information en passant par les régions composant le système visuel. La deuxième partie présente la schizophrénie par son diagnostic, ces déficits de bas niveau de traitement des stimuli visuel et ces déficits cognitifs. La troisième partie présente le traitement des contours illusoires et les trois modèles utilisés dans le dernier article. Finalement, les méthodes de traitement des données EEG seront explicitées, y compris les méthodes de temps-fréquences.Les résultats des trois articles sont présentés dans le chapitre éponyme (du même nom). De plus ce chapitre comprendra les résultats obtenus à l'aide des méthodes de temps-fréquenceFinalement, la discussion sera orientée selon trois axes : les méthodes de temps-fréquence ainsi qu'une proposition de traitement de ces données par une méthode statistique indépendante de la référence. La discussion du premier article en montrera la qualité du traitement de ces stimuli. La discussion des deux articles neurophysiologiques, proposera de nouvelles d'expériences afin d'affiner les résultats actuels sur les déficits des schizophrènes. Ceci pourrait permettre d'établir un marqueur biologique fiable de la schizophrénie.ABSTRACT (ENGLISH)This thesis focuses on the visual system in healthy subjects and schizophrenic patients. To address this research, advanced methods of analysis of electroencephalographic (EEG) data were used and developed. This manuscript is comprised of three scientific articles. The first article showed a novel method to control the physical features of visual stimuli (luminance and spatial frequencies). The second article showed, using electrical neuroimaging of EEG, a deficit in spatial processing associated with the dorsal pathway in chronic schizophrenic patients. This deficit was elicited by an absent modulation of the PI component in terms of response strength and topography as well as source estimations. This deficit was orthogonal to the preserved ability to process Kanizsa-type illusory contours. Finally, the third article resolved ongoing debates concerning the neural mechanism mediating illusory contour sensitivity by using electrical neuroimaging to show that the first differentiation of illusory contour presence vs. absence is localized within the lateral occipital complex. This effect was subsequent to modulations due to the orientation of misaligned grating stimuli. Collectively, these results support a model where effects in V1/V2 are mediated by "top-down" modulation from the LOC.To understand these three articles, the Introduction of this thesis presents the major concepts used in these articles. Additionally, a section is devoted to time-frequency analysis methods not presented in the articles themselves. The introduction is divided in four parts. The first part presents three aspects of the visual system: cellular, regional, and its functional interactions. The second part presents an overview of schizophrenia and its sensoiy-cognitive deficits. The third part presents an overview of illusory contour processing and the three models examined in the third article. Finally, advanced analysis methods for EEG are presented, including time- frequency methodology.The Introduction is followed by a synopsis of the main results in the articles as well as those obtained from the time-frequency analyses.Finally, the Discussion chapter is divided along three axes. The first axis discusses the time frequency analysis and proposes a novel statistical approach that is independent of the reference. The second axis contextualizes the first article and discusses the quality of the stimulus control and direction for further improvements. Finally, both neurophysiologic articles are contextualized by proposing future experiments and hypotheses that may serve to improve our understanding of schizophrenia on the one hand and visual functions more generally.

EEG alpha activity reflects motor preparation rather than the mode of action selection

Alpha-band activity (8-13 Hz) is not only suppressed by sensory stimulation and movements, but also modulated by attention, working memory and mental tasks, and could be sensitive to higher motor control functions. The aim of the present study was to examine alpha oscillatory activity during the preparation of simple left or right finger movements, contrasting the external and internal mode of action selection. Three preparation conditions were examined using a precueing paradigm with S1 as the preparatory and S2 as the imperative cue: Full, laterality instructed by S1; Free, laterality freely selected and None, laterality instructed by S2. Time-frequency (TF) analysis was performed in the alpha frequency range during the S1-S2 interval, and alpha motor-related amplitude asymmetries (MRAA) were also calculated. The significant MRAA during the Full and Free conditions indicated effective external and internal motor response preparation. In the absence of specific motor preparation (None), a posterior alpha event-related desynchronization (ERD) dominated, reflecting the main engagement of attentional resources. In Full and Free motor preparation, posterior alpha ERD was accompanied by a midparietal alpha event-related synchronization (ERS), suggesting a concomitant inhibition of task-irrelevant visual activity. In both Full and Free motor preparation, analysis of alpha power according to MRAA amplitude revealed two types of functional activation patterns: (1) a motor alpha pattern, with predominantly midparietal alpha ERS and large MRAA corresponding to lateralized motor activation/visual inhibition and (2) an attentional alpha pattern, with dominating right posterior alpha ERD and small MRAA reflecting visuospatial attention. The present results suggest that alpha oscillatory patterns do not resolve the selection mode of action, but rather distinguish separate functional strategies of motor preparation.

Assessing alpine plant vulnerability to climate change: A modeling perspective

The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.