Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Predicting trabecular bone microdamage initiation and accumulation using a non-linear perfect damage model

Studies evaluating the mechanical behavior of the trabecular microstructure play an important role in our understanding of pathologies such as osteoporosis, and in increasing our understanding of bone fracture and bone adaptation. Understanding of such behavior in bone is important for predicting and providing early treatment of fractures. The objective of this study is to present a numerical model for studying the initiation and accumulation of trabecular bone microdamage in both the pre- and post-yield regions. A sub-region of human vertebral trabecular bone was analyzed using a uniformly loaded anatomically accurate microstructural three-dimensional finite element model. The evolution of trabecular bone microdamage was governed using a non-linear, modulus reduction, perfect damage approach derived from a generalized plasticity stress-strain law. The model introduced in this paper establishes a history of microdamage evolution in both the pre- and post-yield regions

Aging and motor programming: differential effects according to the selection of action

There are controversial reports about the effect of aging on movement preparation, and it is unclear to which extent cognitive and/or motor related cerebral processes may be affected. This study examines the age effects on electro-cortical oscillatory patterns during various motor programming tasks, in order to assess potential differences according to the mode of action selection. Twenty elderly (EP, 60-84 years) and 20 young (YP, 20-29 years) participants with normal cognition underwent 3 pre-cued response tasks (S1-S2 paradigm). S1 carried either complete information on response side (Full; stimulus-driven motor preparation), no information (None; general motor alertness), or required free response side selection (Free; internally-driven motor preparation). Electroencephalogram (EEG) was recorded using 64 surface electrodes. Alpha (8-12 Hz) desynchronization (ERD)/synchronization (ERS) and motor-related amplitude asymmetries (MRAA) were analyzed during the S1-S2 interval. Reaction times (RTs) to S2 were slower in EP than YP, and in None than in the other 2 tasks. There was an Age x Task interaction due to increased RTs in Free compared to Full in EP only. Central bilateral and midline activation (alpha ERD) was smaller in EP than YP in None. In Full just before S2, readiness to move was reflected by posterior midline inhibition (alpha ERS) in both groups. In Free, such inhibition was present only in YP. Moreover, MRAA showed motor activity lateralization in both groups in Full, but only in YP in Free. The results indicate reduced recruitment of motor regions for motor alertness in the elderly. They further show less efficient cerebral processes subtending free selection of movement in elders, suggesting reduced capacity for internally-driven action with age.

Variation in the intensity of inbreeding depression among successive life-cycle stages and generations in gynodioecious Silene vulgaris (Caryophyllaceae).

Inbreeding depression is one of the hypotheses explaining the maintenance of females within gynodioecious plant populations. However, the measurement of fitness components in selfed and outcrossed progeny depends on life-cycle stage and the history of inbreeding. Comparative data indicate that strong inbreeding depression is more likely to occur at later life-cycle stages. We used hermaphrodite individuals of Silene vulgaris originating from three populations located in different valleys in the Swiss Alps to investigate the effect of two generations of self- and cross-fertilization on fitness components among successive stages of the life cycle in a glasshouse experiment. We detected significant inbreeding depression for most life-cycle stages including: the number of viable and aborted seeds per fruit, probability of germination, above ground biomass, probability of flowering, number of flowers per plant, flower size and pollen viability. Overall, the intensity of inbreeding depression increased among successive stages of the life cycle and cumulative inbreeding depression was significantly stronger in the first generation (delta approximately 0.5) compared with the second generation (delta approximately 0.35). We found no evidence for synergistic epistasis in our experiment. Our finding of more intense inbreeding depression during later stages of the life cycle may help to explain the maintenance of females in gynodioecious populations of S. vulgaris because purging of genetic load is less likely to occur.

Preliminary Experience in Treatment of Papillary and Macular Retinoblastoma: Evaluation of Local Control and Local Complications After Treatment with Linear Accelerator-Based Stereotactic Radiotherapy with Micromultileaf Collimator as Second-Line or Salvage Treatment after chemotherapy.

PURPOSE: To determine the local control and complication rates for children with papillary and/or macular retinoblastoma progressing after chemotherapy and undergoing stereotactic radiotherapy (SRT) with a micromultileaf collimator. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Between 2004 and 2008, 11 children (15 eyes) with macular and/or papillary retinoblastoma were treated with SRT. The mean age was 19 months (range, 2-111). Of the 15 eyes, 7, 6, and 2 were classified as International Classification of Intraocular Retinoblastoma Group B, C, and E, respectively. The delivered dose of SRT was 50.4 Gy in 28 fractions using a dedicated micromultileaf collimator linear accelerator. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 20 months (range, 13-39). Local control was achieved in 13 eyes (87%). The actuarial 1- and 2-year local control rates were both 82%. SRT was well tolerated. Late adverse events were reported in 4 patients. Of the 4 patients, 2 had developed focal microangiopathy 20 months after SRT; 1 had developed a transient recurrence of retinal detachment; and 1 had developed bilateral cataracts. No optic neuropathy was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Linear accelerator-based SRT for papillary and/or macular retinoblastoma in children resulted in excellent tumor control rates with acceptable toxicity. Additional research regarding SRT and its intrinsic organ-at-risk sparing capability is justified in the framework of prospective trials.

Multiple-scale hydrological and geophysical data integration through non-linear Bayesian sequential simulation

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending the corresponding approaches to the scale of a field site represents a major, and as-of-yet largely unresolved, challenge. To address this problem, we have developed downscaling procedure based on a non-linear Bayesian sequential simulation approach. The main objective of this algorithm is to estimate the value of the sparsely sampled hydraulic conductivity at non-sampled locations based on its relation to the electrical conductivity logged at collocated wells and surface resistivity measurements, which are available throughout the studied site. The in situ relationship between the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is described through a non-parametric multivariatekernel density function. Then a stochastic integration of low-resolution, large-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data in combination with high-resolution, local-scale downhole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is applied. The overall viability of this downscaling approach is tested and validated by comparing flow and transport simulation through the original and the upscaled hydraulic conductivity fields. Our results indicate that the proposed procedure allows obtaining remarkably faithful estimates of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and correspondingly reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over relatively long distances.

Dynamics of the recruitment of lateral amygdala neurons following successive fear learning to different conditional stimuli

In fear conditioning, an animal learns to associate an unconditioned stimulus (US), such as a shock, and a conditioned stimulus (CS), such as a tone, so that the presentation of the CS alone can trigger conditioned responses. Recent research on the lateral amygdala has shown that following cued fear conditioning, only a subset of higher-excitable neurons are recruited in the memory trace. Their selective deletion after fear conditioning results in a selective erasure of the fearful memory. I hypothesize that the recruitment of highly excitable neurons depends on responsiveness to stimuli, intrinsic excitability and local connectivity. In addition, I hypothesize that neurons recruited for an initial memory also participate in subsequent memories, and that changes in neuronal excitability affect secondary fear learning. To address these hypotheses, I will show that A) a rat can learn to associate two successive short-term fearful memories; B) neuronal populations in the LA are competitively recruited in the memory traces depending on individual neuronal advantages, as well as advantages granted by the local network. By performing two successive cued fear conditioning experiments, I found that rats were able to learn and extinguish the two successive short-term memories, when tested 1 hour after learning for each memory. These rats were equipped with a system of stable extracellular recordings that I developed, which allowed to monitor neuronal activity during fear learning. 233 individual putative pyramidal neurons could modulate their firing rate in response to the conditioned tone (conditioned neurons) and/or non- conditioned tones (generalizing neurons). Out of these recorded putative pyramidal neurons 86 (37%) neurons were conditioned to one or both tones. More precisely, one population of neurons encoded for a shared memory while another group of neurons likely encoded the memories' new features. Notably, in spite of a successful behavioral extinction, the firing rate of those conditioned neurons in response to the conditioned tone remained unchanged throughout memory testing. Furthermore, by analyzing the pre-conditioning characteristics of the conditioned neurons, I determined that it was possible to predict neuronal recruitment based on three factors: 1) initial sensitivity to auditory inputs, with tone-sensitive neurons being more easily recruited than tone- insensitive neurons; 2) baseline excitability levels, with more highly excitable neurons being more likely to become conditioned; and 3) the number of afferent connections received from local neurons, with neurons destined to become conditioned receiving more connections than non-conditioned neurons. - En conditionnement de la peur, un animal apprend à associer un stimulus inconditionnel (SI), tel un choc électrique, et un stimulus conditionné (SC), comme un son, de sorte que la présentation du SC seul suffit pour déclencher des réflexes conditionnés. Des recherches récentes sur l'amygdale latérale (AL) ont montré que, suite au conditionnement à la peur, seul un sous-ensemble de neurones plus excitables sont recrutés pour constituer la trace mnésique. Pour apprendre à associer deux sons au même SI, je fais l'hypothèse que les neurones entrent en compétition afin d'être sélectionnés lors du recrutement pour coder la trace mnésique. Ce recrutement dépendrait d'un part à une activation facilité des neurones ainsi qu'une activation facilité de réseaux de neurones locaux. En outre, je fais l'hypothèse que l'activation de ces réseaux de l'AL, en soi, est suffisante pour induire une mémoire effrayante. Pour répondre à ces hypothèses, je vais montrer que A) selon un processus de mémoire à court terme, un rat peut apprendre à associer deux mémoires effrayantes apprises successivement; B) des populations neuronales dans l'AL sont compétitivement recrutées dans les traces mnésiques en fonction des avantages neuronaux individuels, ainsi que les avantages consentis par le réseau local. En effectuant deux expériences successives de conditionnement à la peur, des rats étaient capables d'apprendre, ainsi que de subir un processus d'extinction, pour les deux souvenirs effrayants. La mesure de l'efficacité du conditionnement à la peur a été effectuée 1 heure après l'apprentissage pour chaque souvenir. Ces rats ont été équipés d'un système d'enregistrements extracellulaires stables que j'ai développé, ce qui a permis de suivre l'activité neuronale pendant l'apprentissage de la peur. 233 neurones pyramidaux individuels pouvaient moduler leur taux d'activité en réponse au son conditionné (neurones conditionnés) et/ou au son non conditionné (neurones généralisant). Sur les 233 neurones pyramidaux putatifs enregistrés 86 (37%) d'entre eux ont été conditionnés à un ou deux tons. Plus précisément, une population de neurones code conjointement pour un souvenir partagé, alors qu'un groupe de neurones différent code pour de nouvelles caractéristiques de nouveaux souvenirs. En particulier, en dépit d'une extinction du comportement réussie, le taux de décharge de ces neurones conditionné en réponse à la tonalité conditionnée est resté inchangée tout au long de la mesure d'apprentissage. En outre, en analysant les caractéristiques de pré-conditionnement des neurones conditionnés, j'ai déterminé qu'il était possible de prévoir le recrutement neuronal basé sur trois facteurs : 1) la sensibilité initiale aux entrées auditives, avec les neurones sensibles aux sons étant plus facilement recrutés que les neurones ne répondant pas aux stimuli auditifs; 2) les niveaux d'excitabilité des neurones, avec les neurones plus facilement excitables étant plus susceptibles d'être conditionnés au son ; et 3) le nombre de connexions reçues, puisque les neurones conditionné reçoivent plus de connexions que les neurones non-conditionnés. Enfin, nous avons constaté qu'il était possible de remplacer de façon satisfaisante le SI lors d'un conditionnement à la peur par des injections bilatérales de bicuculline, un antagoniste des récepteurs de l'acide y-Aminobutirique.

Binary classification of dyslipidemia from the waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index: a comparison of linear, logistic, and CART models.

BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.

Characterisation of "fou2", a constitutive wound-activated mutant and analysis of the proteome and leaf physiology in the region proximal to wounds in Arabidopsis

Résumé : Les jasmonates (JA), une famille d'hor1none végétale, jouent un rôle central dans la réponse à la blessure, et aux attaques d'insectes et de pathogènes. Les JA sont principalement dérivés d'un acide gras, l'acide linolénique. L'addition par une lipoxygénase d'une molécule d'oxygène à l'acide linolénique initie la synthèse de JA. Cependant les mécanismes régulant l'activation de la biosynthèse de JA ne sont pas encore connus. C'est pour cette raison que dans ce travail, nous avons caractérisé chez Arabidopsis thaliana (l'Arabette des Dames) un mutant fou2 dont l'activité lipoxygénase est plus élevée que celle d'une plante sauvage. Les niveaux de JA sont constitutivement plus élevés et l'activation de la synthèse de JA après blessure est fortement plus induite chez fou2 que chez le type sauvage. En outre, fou2 est plus résistant au pathogène Botrytis cinerea et à la chenille Spodoptera littoralis. Afin de comprendre quel mécanisme chez fou2 génére ce phénotype, nous avons cloné le gène responsable du phénotype de fou2. Le mutant fou2 porte une mutation dans le gène d'un canal à deux pores transportant probablement du potassium, du lumen de la vacuole végétale vers le compartiment cytosolique. L'analyse du protéome de fou2 a permis d'identifier une expression plus élevée de sept protéines régulées par les JA ou le stress. La découverte de l'implication d'un canal dans le phénotype de fou2 renforce l'hypothèse que les flux de cations pourraient être impliqués dans les étapes précoces de la synthèse des JA. Nous avons également étudié le protéome et la physiologie d'une feuille blessée, Pour évaluer les changements d'expression protéique en réponse à la blessure et contrôlés par les JA, nous avons quantifié l'expression de 5937 protéines chez une plante d'Arabidopsis sauvage et chez un mutant incapable de synthétiser des JA. Parmi ces 5937 protéines, nous avons identifié 99 protéines régulées par la blessure chez le type sauvage. Nous avons observé pour 65% des protéines dont l'expression protéique changeait après blessure une bonne corrélation entre la quantité de transcrits et de protéines. Plusieurs enzymes de la voie des chorismates impliquées dans la biosynthèse des acides aminés phénoliques étaient induites par les JA après blessure. Une quantification des acides aminés a montré que les niveaux d'acides aminés phénoliques augmentaient significativement après blessure. La blessure induisait aussi des changements dans l'expression de protéines impliquées dans la réponse au stress et particulièrement au stress oxydatif. Nous avons quantifié l'état réduit et oxydé du glutathion, un tripeptide qui, sous sa forme réduite, est l'antioxydant majeur des cellules. Nous avons trouvé une quantité significativement plus élevée de glutathion oxydé chez le type sauvage blessé que chez la plante aus blessée. Ce résultat suggère que la génération d'un stress oxydatif et la proportion relative de glutathions réduits et oxydés sont contrôlés par les JA après blessure. Abstract : Plants possess a family of potent fatty acid-derived wound-response and developmental regulators: the jasmonates. These compounds are derived from the tri?unsaturated fatty acid a-linolenic-acid (18:3). Addition of an oxygen molecule to 18:3 by 13-lipoxygenases (13-LOX) initiates JA biosynthesis. Actually components regulating the activation of JA biosynthesis are poorly defined. Therefore we characterized in Arabidopsis thaliana the fatty acid Qxygenation upregulated 2 (fou2) mutant, which was previously isolated in a screen for mutants with an enhanced 13-LOX activity. As a consequence of this increased 13-LOX activity, JA levels in fou2 are higher than in wild type (WT) and wounding strongly increased JA biosynthesis compared to WT. fou2 was more resistant to the fungus Botrytis cinerea and the generalist caterpillar Spodaptera littomlis, The fou2 mutant carries a missense mutation in the Two Pore Channel 1 gene (TPCJ), which encodes a vacuolar cation channel transporting probably K* into the cytosol. Patchclamp analysis of fou2 vacuolar membranes showed faster time-dependent conductivity and activation of the mutated channel at lower membrane potentials than wild-type. Proteomic analysis of fou2 leaves identified increased levels of seven biotic stress- and JA- inducible proteins. The discovery of the implication of a channel in the fou2 phenotype strenghtens the hypothesis that cation fluxes might be implicated in early steps of JA synthesis. We further concentrated on the proteome and leaf physiology in the region proximal to wounds in Arabidopsis using the WT and the aos JA-biosynthesis deficient mutant in order to find JA- induced proteins changes. We used two successive proteomic methods to assess protein changes in response to wounding Arabidopsis leaves, two dimensional electrophoresis (2DE) and linear trap quadrupole ion-trap mass spectrometry. In total 5937 proteins were quantified. We identified 99 wound-regulated proteins in the WT. Most these proteins were also wound-regulated at the transcript level showing a good correlation between transcript and protein abundance. We identified several wound-regulated enzymes involved in amino acid biosynthesis and confirmed this result by amino acid quantification. Proteins involved in stress reponses were upregulated, particularly in redox species regulation. We found a significantly higher quantity of oxidized glutathione in wounded WT relative to wounded aos leaves. This result suggests that levels of reduced glutathione are controlled by JA after wounding.