Latent Class Analysis of Gambling Activities in a Sample of Young Swiss Men : Association with Gambling Problems, Substance Use Outcomes, Personality Traits and Coping Strategies.

The study aimed to identify different patterns of gambling activities (PGAs) and to investigate how PGAs differed in gambling problems, substance use outcomes, personality traits and coping strategies. A representative sample of 4989 young Swiss males completed a questionnaire assessing seven distinct gambling activities, gambling problems, substance use outcomes, personality traits and coping strategies. PGAs were identified using latent class analysis (LCA). Differences between PGAs in gambling and substance use outcomes, personality traits and coping strategies were tested. LCA identified six different PGAs. With regard to gambling and substance use outcomes, the three most problematic PGAs were extensive gamblers, followed by private gamblers, and electronic lottery and casino gamblers, respectively. By contrast, the three least detrimental PGAs were rare or non-gamblers, lottery only gamblers and casino gamblers. With regard to personality traits, compared with rare or non-gamblers, private and casino gamblers reported higher levels of sensation seeking. Electronic lottery and casino gamblers, private gamblers and extensive gamblers had higher levels of aggression-hostility. Extensive and casino gamblers reported higher levels of sociability, whereas casino gamblers reported lower levels of anxiety-neuroticism. Extensive gamblers used more maladaptive and less adaptive coping strategies than other groups. Results suggest that gambling is not a homogeneous activity since different types of gamblers exist according to the PGA they are engaged in. Extensive gamblers, electronic and casino gamblers and private gamblers may have the most problematic PGAs. Personality traits and coping skills may predispose individuals to PGAs associated with more or less negative outcomes.

Pollution and pollutant transport in the geosphere - An introduction to the symposium

Environmental research in earth sciences is focused on the geosphere, i.e. (1) waters and sediments of rivers, lakes and oceans, and (2) soils and underlying shallow rock formations,both water-unsaturated and -saturated. The subsurface is studied down to greater depths at sites where waste repositories or tunnels are planned and mining activities exist. In recent years, earth scientists have become more and more involved in pollution problems related to their classical field of interest, e.g. groundwater, ore deposits, or petroleum and non-metal natural deposits (gravel, clay, cement precursors). Major pollutants include chemical substances, radioactive isotopes and microorganisms. Mechanisms which govern the transport of pollutants are of physical, chemical (dissolution, precipitation, adsorption), or microbiological (transformation) nature. Land-use planning must reflect a sustainable development and sound scientific criteria. Today's environmental pollution requires working teams with an interdisciplinary background in earth sciences, hydrology, chemistry, biology, physics as well as engineering. This symposium brought together for the first time in Switzerland earth and soil scientists, physicists and chemists, to present and discuss environmental issues concerning the geosphere.

Tethyan margins in space and time

Rifting processes, leading to sea-floor spreading, are characterized by a sequence of events: transtensive phase of extension with syn-rift volcanism; simple shear extension accompanied by lithospheric thinning and asthenospheric up-welling and thermal uplift of the rift shoulder and asymmetric volcanism. The simple shear model of extension leads to an asymmetric model of passive margin: a lower plate tilted block margin and an upper plate flexural, ramp-like margin- Both will be affected by thermal contraction and subsidence, starting soon after sea-floor spreading. Based on these actualistic models Tethyan margins are classified as one type or the other. Their evolution from the first transtensional phase of extension to the passive margin stage are analyzed. Four main rifting events are recognized in the Tethyan realm: an episode of lower Paleozoic events leading to the formation of the Paleotethys; a Late Paleozoic event leading to the opening of the Permotethys and East Mediterranean basin: an early Mesozoic event leading to the opening of the Pindos Neotethys and a Jurassic event related to the opening of the Alpine/Atlantic Neotethys. Type margins are given as example of each rifting event: -Northern Iran (Alborz) as a type area for the Late Ordovician to Silurian rifting of Paleotethys. -Northern India and Oman for the Late Carboniferous to early Permian rifting of Permotethys. -The East Mediterranean (Levant, Tunisia) as a Late Carboniferous rifting event. -The Neotethyan rifting phases are separated in two types: an eastern Pindos system found in Turkey and Greece is genetically linked to the Permotethys with a sea-floor spreading delayed until middle Triassic: a western Alpine system directly linked to the opening of the central Atlantic is characterized by a Late Triassic transtensive phase, an early to Middle Liassic break-away phase and. following sea-floor spreading, a thermal subsidence phase starting in Dogger. Problems related to the closure of the Paleozoic oceanic domains are reviewed. A Late Permian, early Triassic phase of `'docking'' between an European accretionary prism (Chios) and a Paleotethyan margin is supported by recent findings in the Mediterranean area. Back-arc rifting within the European active margin led to the formation of marginal seas during Permian and Triassic times and will contribute to the closure of the Paleozoic oceans.

Evolving from inferences to decisions in the interpretation of scientific evidence

Le travail d'un(e) expert(e) en science forensique exige que ce dernier (cette dernière) prenne une série de décisions. Ces décisions sont difficiles parce qu'elles doivent être prises dans l'inévitable présence d'incertitude, dans le contexte unique des circonstances qui entourent la décision, et, parfois, parce qu'elles sont complexes suite à de nombreuse variables aléatoires et dépendantes les unes des autres. Etant donné que ces décisions peuvent aboutir à des conséquences sérieuses dans l'administration de la justice, la prise de décisions en science forensique devrait être soutenue par un cadre robuste qui fait des inférences en présence d'incertitudes et des décisions sur la base de ces inférences. L'objectif de cette thèse est de répondre à ce besoin en présentant un cadre théorique pour faire des choix rationnels dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. L'inférence et la théorie de la décision bayésienne satisfont les conditions nécessaires pour un tel cadre théorique. Pour atteindre son objectif, cette thèse consiste de trois propositions, recommandant l'utilisation (1) de la théorie de la décision, (2) des réseaux bayésiens, et (3) des réseaux bayésiens de décision pour gérer des problèmes d'inférence et de décision forensiques. Les résultats présentent un cadre uniforme et cohérent pour faire des inférences et des décisions en science forensique qui utilise les concepts théoriques ci-dessus. Ils décrivent comment organiser chaque type de problème en le décomposant dans ses différents éléments, et comment trouver le meilleur plan d'action en faisant la distinction entre des problèmes de décision en une étape et des problèmes de décision en deux étapes et en y appliquant le principe de la maximisation de l'utilité espérée. Pour illustrer l'application de ce cadre à des problèmes rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique, des études de cas théoriques appliquent la théorie de la décision, les réseaux bayésiens et les réseaux bayésiens de décision à une sélection de différents types de problèmes d'inférence et de décision impliquant différentes catégories de traces. Deux études du problème des deux traces illustrent comment la construction de réseaux bayésiens permet de gérer des problèmes d'inférence complexes, et ainsi surmonter l'obstacle de la complexité qui peut être présent dans des problèmes de décision. Trois études-une sur ce qu'il faut conclure d'une recherche dans une banque de données qui fournit exactement une correspondance, une sur quel génotype il faut rechercher dans une banque de données sur la base des observations faites sur des résultats de profilage d'ADN, et une sur s'il faut soumettre une trace digitale à un processus qui compare la trace avec des empreintes de sources potentielles-expliquent l'application de la théorie de la décision et des réseaux bayésiens de décision à chacune de ces décisions. Les résultats des études des cas théoriques soutiennent les trois propositions avancées dans cette thèse. Ainsi, cette thèse présente un cadre uniforme pour organiser et trouver le plan d'action le plus rationnel dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. Le cadre proposé est un outil interactif et exploratoire qui permet de mieux comprendre un problème de décision afin que cette compréhension puisse aboutir à des choix qui sont mieux informés. - Forensic science casework involves making a sériés of choices. The difficulty in making these choices lies in the inévitable presence of uncertainty, the unique context of circumstances surrounding each décision and, in some cases, the complexity due to numerous, interrelated random variables. Given that these décisions can lead to serious conséquences in the admin-istration of justice, forensic décision making should be supported by a robust framework that makes inferences under uncertainty and décisions based on these inferences. The objective of this thesis is to respond to this need by presenting a framework for making rational choices in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. Bayesian inference and décision theory meets the requirements for such a framework. To attain its objective, this thesis consists of three propositions, advocating the use of (1) décision theory, (2) Bayesian networks, and (3) influence diagrams for handling forensic inference and décision problems. The results present a uniform and coherent framework for making inferences and décisions in forensic science using the above theoretical concepts. They describe how to organize each type of problem by breaking it down into its différent elements, and how to find the most rational course of action by distinguishing between one-stage and two-stage décision problems and applying the principle of expected utility maximization. To illustrate the framework's application to the problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories, theoretical case studies apply décision theory, Bayesian net-works and influence diagrams to a selection of différent types of inference and décision problems dealing with différent catégories of trace evidence. Two studies of the two-trace problem illustrate how the construction of Bayesian networks can handle complex inference problems, and thus overcome the hurdle of complexity that can be present in décision prob-lems. Three studies-one on what to conclude when a database search provides exactly one hit, one on what genotype to search for in a database based on the observations made on DNA typing results, and one on whether to submit a fingermark to the process of comparing it with prints of its potential sources-explain the application of décision theory and influ¬ence diagrams to each of these décisions. The results of the theoretical case studies support the thesis's three propositions. Hence, this thesis présents a uniform framework for organizing and finding the most rational course of action in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. The proposed framework is an interactive and exploratory tool for better understanding a décision problem so that this understanding may lead to better informed choices.

Chronic rejection of allogenic dermal grafts in 73 % TBSA burn patient

Rationale: Allogenic grafts are an excellent way to temporarily cover a wound. It prevents the loss of electrolytes and water, reduces the risk of infection and diminishes pain. Another advantage of the allograft is in circumventing problems such as the morbidity of skin graft donor sites. We present here the case of a patient grafted in 1991 with cultured epidermal autografts (CEA) and allogenic skin transplants on his legs, outlining the risks and potential long-term complications. Methods: The 40-year-old male patient was treated with allogenic Split Thickness Skin Graft (STSG) transplantations, CEA and Cyclosporine-A therapy. Allogenic STSG for lower extremities were harvested from a female HIV-negative organ donor. They were transplanted, de-epithelialized and subsequently covered with CEAs. Cyclosporine-A was administered systemically from the first day following transplantation until three weeks after the last CEAs were placed on the allogenic dermis. Results: Immediate results showed a 90% successful grafting under cyclosporine therapy. However, some lesions were still present 16 months later. The skin was hard with little or no elasticity. Five years after the transplantation there were no more lesions. However, a 10-year follow-up showed new ulcers on both lower extremities. All the skin of the right leg was removed and replaced by STSG from the patient's back. Postoperative results were excellent with a 100% graft take. The anatomopathology showed dermo-hypodermic tissue with fibrosis of the dermis, vasculopathy and chronic ulcers compatible with chronic rejection. Conclusion: While early functional results of the allografts may seem encouraging, their long-term evolution remains uncertain and, in this case, presents complications. The apparent antigenic effect of the dermal tissue may be controlled with long-term immunosuppression which may cause important secondary effects. Even with such treatments, 15 years after organ transplantation, about 35% of a transplant is no longer functional. It is therefore important to take these long-term observations into consideration when treating sensitive areas such as hands or a face.

A random linear functional approach to efficiency bounds

This paper suggests a method for obtaining efficiency bounds in models containing either only infinite-dimensional parameters or both finite- and infinite-dimensional parameters (semiparametric models). The method is based on a theory of random linear functionals applied to the gradient of the log-likelihood functional and is illustrated by computing the lower bound for Cox's regression model

Training needs in adolescent medicine of practising doctors: a Swiss national survey of six disciplines.

OBJECTIVE: To assess and compare the training needs in adolescent medicine of doctors within 6 specialties as a basis for the development of pre/postgraduate and continuing medical education (CME) training curricula. DESIGN: Cross-sectional postal survey. SETTING: Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: National, representative, random sample of 1857 practising doctors in 6 disciplines (general practitioners, paediatricians, gynaecologists, internists, psychiatrists, child psychiatrists) registered with the Swiss Medical Association. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Perceived importance of and training interest in 35 topics related to adolescent medicine listed in a self-administered, anonymous questionnaire. RESULTS: A total of 1367 questionnaires were returned, representing a response rate of 73.9%. Clear interest in adolescent medicine was reported by 62.1% of respondents. Topics perceived to be the most important in everyday practice were functional symptoms (71.4%), acne (67.1%), obesity (64.6%), depression-anxiety (68.1%) and communication with adolescents (61.7%). Differences between disciplines were especially marked for gynaecologists, who expressed interest almost exclusively in medical topics specific to their field. In contrast, other disciplines commonly reported a keen interest in psychosocial problems. Accordingly, interest in further training was expressed mostly for functional symptoms (62.4%), eating disorders (56.3%), depression-anxiety (53.7%) and obesity (52.6%). Issues related to injury prevention, chronic disease and confidentiality were rated as low priorities. CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of discipline, Swiss primary care doctors expressed a strong interest in adolescent medicine. Continuing medical education courses should include both interdisciplinary courses and discipline-specific sessions. Further training should address epidemiological and legal/ethical issues (e.g. injury prevention, confidentiality, impact of chronic conditions).

An iterative Multiscale Finite-Volume algorithm converging to the exact solution

The multiscale finite volume (MsFV) method has been developed to efficiently solve large heterogeneous problems (elliptic or parabolic); it is usually employed for pressure equations and delivers conservative flux fields to be used in transport problems. The method essentially relies on the hypothesis that the (fine-scale) problem can be reasonably described by a set of local solutions coupled by a conservative global (coarse-scale) problem. In most cases, the boundary conditions assigned for the local problems are satisfactory and the approximate conservative fluxes provided by the method are accurate. In numerically challenging cases, however, a more accurate localization is required to obtain a good approximation of the fine-scale solution. In this paper we develop a procedure to iteratively improve the boundary conditions of the local problems. The algorithm relies on the data structure of the MsFV method and employs a Krylov-subspace projection method to obtain an unconditionally stable scheme and accelerate convergence. Two variants are considered: in the first, only the MsFV operator is used; in the second, the MsFV operator is combined in a two-step method with an operator derived from the problem solved to construct the conservative flux field. The resulting iterative MsFV algorithms allow arbitrary reduction of the solution error without compromising the construction of a conservative flux field, which is guaranteed at any iteration. Since it converges to the exact solution, the method can be regarded as a linear solver. In this context, the schemes proposed here can be viewed as preconditioned versions of the Generalized Minimal Residual method (GMRES), with a very peculiar characteristic that the residual on the coarse grid is zero at any iteration (thus conservative fluxes can be obtained).

How Much Does It Cost? Optimization of Costs in Sequence Analysis of Social Science Data

One major methodological problem in analysis of sequence data is the determination of costs from which distances between sequences are derived. Although this problem is currently not optimally dealt with in the social sciences, it has some similarity with problems that have been solved in bioinformatics for three decades. In this article, the authors propose an optimization of substitution and deletion/insertion costs based on computational methods. The authors provide an empirical way of determining costs for cases, frequent in the social sciences, in which theory does not clearly promote one cost scheme over another. Using three distinct data sets, the authors tested the distances and cluster solutions produced by the new cost scheme in comparison with solutions based on cost schemes associated with other research strategies. The proposed method performs well compared with other cost-setting strategies, while it alleviates the justification problem of cost schemes.