Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.

Integration and development in schizotypy research : an introduction to the special supplement

In its fifth decade of existence, the construct of schizotypy is recapturing the early scientific interest it attracted when Paul E. Meehl (1920-2003), who coined the term, pioneered the field of schizotypy research. The International Lemanic Workshop on Schizotypy, hosted at the University of Geneva in December 2013, recently offered an opportunity to address some of the fundamental questions in contemporary schizotypy research and situate the construct in the greater scheme of future scientific projects on schizophrenia and psychological health research. What kind of knowledge has schizotypy research provided in furthering our understanding of schizophrenia? What types of questions can schizotypy research tackle, and which are the conceptual and methodological frameworks to address them? How will schizotypy research contribute to future scientific endeavors? The International Lemanic Workshop brought together leading experts in the field around the tasks of articulating the essential findings in schizotypy research, as well as providing some key insights and guidance to face scientific challenges of the future. The current supplement contains 8 position articles, 4 research articles, and 1 invited commentary that outline the state of the art in schizotypy research today

An introductory review on gravitational-deformation induced structures, fabrics and modeling

Recent studies have pointed out a similarity between tectonics and slope tectonic-induced structures. Numerous studies have demonstrated that structures and fabrics previously interpreted as of purely geodynamical origin are instead the result of large slope deformation, and this led in the past to erroneous interpretations. Nevertheless, their limit seems not clearly defined, but it is somehow transitional. Some studies point out continuity between failures developing at surface with upper crust movements. In this contribution, the main studies which examine the link between rock structures and slope movements are reviewed. The aspects regarding model and scale of observation are discussed together with the role of pre-existing weaknesses in the rock mass. As slope failures can develop through progressive failure, structures and their changes in time and space can be recognized. Furthermore, recognition of the origin of these structures can help in avoiding misinterpretations of regional geology. This also suggests the importance of integrating different slope movement classifications based on distribution and pattern of deformation and the application of structural geology techniques. A structural geology approach in the landslide community is a tool that can greatly support the hazard quantification and related risks, because most of the physical parameters, which are used for landslide modeling, are derived from geotechnical tests or the emerging geophysical approaches.

The cover basement contact beneath the Rawil axial depression (Western Alps) - True amplitude seismic processing, petrophysical properties, and modeling

Since 1986, several near-vertical seismic reflection profiles have been recorded in Switzerland in order to map the deep geologic structure of the Alps. One objective of this endeavour has been to determine the geometries of the autochthonous basement and of the external crystalline massifs, important elements for understanding the geodynamics of the Alpine orogeny. The PNR-20 seismic line W1, located in the Rawil depression of the western Swiss Alps, provides important information on this subject. It extends northward from the `'Penninic front'' across the Helvetic nappes to the Prealps. The crystalline massifs do not outcrop along this profile. Thus, the interpretation of `'near-basement'' reflections has to be constrained by down-dip projections of surface geology, `'true amplitude'' processing, rock physical property studies and modelling. 3-D seismic modelling has been used to evaluate the seismic response of two alternative down-dip projection models. To constrain the interpretation in the southern part of the profile, `'true amplitude'' processing has provided information on the strength of the reflections. Density and velocity measurements on core samples collected up-dip from the region of the seismic line have been used to evaluate reflection coefficients of typical lithologic boundaries in the region. The cover-basement contact itself is not a source of strong reflections, but strong reflections arise from within the overlaying metasedimentary cover sequence, allowing the geometry of the top of the basement to be determined on the basis of `'near-basement'' reflections. The front of the external crystalline massifs is shown to extend beneath the Prealps, about 6 km north of the expected position. A 2-D model whose seismic response shows reflection patterns very similar to the observed is proposed.

Interrogation of related clinical pan-azole-resistant Aspergillus fumigatus strains: G138C, Y431C, and G434C single nucleotide polymorphisms in cyp51A, upregulation of cyp51A, and integration and activation of transposon Atf1 in the cyp51A promoter.

Multiple Aspergillus fumigatus isolates from a patient with two aspergillomas complicating chronic pulmonary aspergillosis were pan-azole resistant. Microsatellite typing was identical for all isolates despite major phenotypic and some growth rate differences. Three different cyp51A mutations were found (G138C, Y431C, and G434C), of which the first two were demonstrated by heterologous expression in a hypersusceptible Saccharomyces cerevisiae strain to be at least partly responsible for elevated MICs. cyp51A and cyp51B gene duplication was excluded, but increased expression of cyp51A was demonstrated in three isolates selected for additional study (7-to 13-fold increases). In the isolate with the greatest cyp51A expression, an Aft1 transposon was found inserted 370 bp upstream of the start codon of the cyp51A gene, an integration location never previously demonstrated in Aspergillus. Two transcription start sites were identified at 49 and 136 bp upstream of the start codon. The role of the Aft1 transposon, if any, in modulating cyp51A expression remains to be established. Increased mRNA expression of the transporters AfuMDR1 and AfuMDR4 also was demonstrated in some isolates, which could contribute to azole resistance or simply represent a stress response. The diversity of confirmed and possible azole resistance mechanisms demonstrated in a single series of isogenic isolates is remarkable, indicating the ability of A. fumigatus to adapt in the clinical setting.

Combining MAR elements and transposable vectors for more reliable transgene integration and expression

Integration without cytotoxic effects and long-term expression of a transgene constitutes a major challenge in gene therapy and biotechnology applications. In this context, transposons represent an attractive system for gene transfer because of their ability to promote efficient integration of a transgene in a variety of cell lines. However, the transgene integration can lead to insertional mutagenesis and/or unstable transgene expression by epigenetic modifications. These unwanted events may be limited by the use of chromatin control elements called MARs (matrix attachment regions). Indeed, the insertion of these DNA elements next to the transgene usually results in higher and more stable expression by maintaining transgene chromatin in an active configuration and preventing gene silencing. In this study, we tested if the inclusion of the MAR 1-68 in the piggyBac transposon system may lead to efficient and safer transgene integration and ensure reliable stable and long-term expression of a transgene. The MAR-containing transposon construct was tested in CHO cells, for biotechnology applications, and in mesoangioblast cells that can differentiate into muscle cells and are important candidates for potential stem cell therapies of myopathies. We showed that the addition of the MAR 1 -68 in the piggyBac transposon did not interfere with transposition, thereby maintaining high frequency of transgene integrations in these cells. Moreover, the MAR allowed higher transgene expression from fewer transposon integration events. We also found that enriched transgene-expressing cell populations could be obtained without the need of selection pressure. Since antibiotic-enforced selection protocols often result in a higher integrated copy number and mosaic expression patterns, this strategy could benefit many applications in which a low copy number of integrated transgenes and antibiotic-free conditions are desired. In addition, the intramuscular transplantation of mouse tibialis anterior muscles with mesoangioblasts containing the transposon led to widespread and sustained myofiber transgene expression after differentiation of these cells in vivo. These findings indicated that piggyBac vectors may provide a viable approach to achieve stable gene transfer in the context of Duchenne muscular dystrophy therapy. - L'intégration sans effets cytotoxiques et l'expression à long terme d'un transgène constituent un défi majeur en thérapie génique et en biotechnologie. Dans ce contexte, les transposons représentent un système attrayant pour le transfert de gènes en raison de leur capacité à promouvoir l'intégration efficace d'un transgène dans une variété de lignées cellulaires. Toutefois, l'intégration d'un transgène peut conduire à une mutagénèse insertionnelle et/ou à une expression instable due au silençage du transgène suite à des modifications épigénétiques. Ces événements indésirables de silençage génique peuvent être diminués par l'utilisation d'éléments de contrôle de la chromatine appelés MAR (matrix attachment region). En effet, l'insertion de ces éléments d'ADN à proximité du transgène se traduit généralement par une expression plus élevée et plus stable de celui-ci, en permettant le maintien d'une chromatine dans une configuration active autour du transgène et en empêchant l'inactivation du gène. Dans cette étude, nous avons testé si l'inclusion du MAR 1-68 dans le système transposon piggyBac peut améliorer l'efficacité d'intégration de façon sécuritaire et l'expression à long terme d'un transgène. Le transposon contenant l'élément MAR a été testé dans les cellules CHO, couramment utilisées en biotechnologie, et dans des cellules progénitrices appelées mésoangioblastes, qui peuvent se différencier en cellules musculaires, et qui constituent ainsi des candidats prometteurs pour la thérapie à partir de cellules souches de patients souffrant de myopathie. Nous avons montré que l'addition du MAR 1-68 dans le transposon piggyBac n'interfère pas avec la transposition et permet de maintenir une fréquence élevée d'intégration du transgène dans ces deux types cellulaires. De plus, il semble que cette association mène à une meilleure expression du transgène à partir de peu d'événements d'intégration du transposon. En outre, ces populations enrichies en cellules exprimant de façon stable le transgène ont pu être obtenues sans avoir recours à une pression de sélection. Etant donné que les protocoles de sélection basée sur l'utilisation d'antibiotiques conduisent souvent à un nombre plus élevé de copies intégrées et à la variégation de l'expression du transgène et qu'ils impliquent une longue culture in vitro, cette stratégie pourrait profiter à des applications pour lesquelles on souhaite un faible nombre de copies intégrées et/ou l'utilisation d'antibiotiques n'est pas souhaitable. De plus, la transplantation intramusculaire de mésoangioblastes contenant le transposon dans le muscle tibial antérieur de souris a conduit, après la différentiation de ces cellules in vivo, à une expression constante et étendue du transgène dans les myofibres. Ces résultats indiquent que les vecteurs piggyBac pourraient fournir une approche viable pour assurer un transfert de gènes stables dans le contexte d'un traitement de la dystrophic musculaire de Duchenne.

MAR elements and transposons for improved transgene integration and expression.

Reliable and long-term expression of transgenes remain significant challenges for gene therapy and biotechnology applications, especially when antibiotic selection procedures are not applicable. In this context, transposons represent attractive gene transfer vectors because of their ability to promote efficient genomic integration in a variety of mammalian cell types. However, expression from genome-integrating vectors may be inhibited by variable gene transcription and/or silencing events. In this study, we assessed whether inclusion of two epigenetic control elements, the human Matrix Attachment Region (MAR) 1-68 and X-29, in a piggyBac transposon vector, may lead to more reliable and efficient expression in CHO cells. We found that addition of the MAR 1-68 at the center of the transposon did not interfere with transposition frequency, and transgene expressing cells could be readily detected from the total cell population without antibiotic selection. Inclusion of the MAR led to higher transgene expression per integrated copy, and reliable expression could be obtained from as few as 2-4 genomic copies of the MAR-containing transposon vector. The MAR X-29-containing transposons was found to mediate elevated expression of therapeutic proteins in polyclonal or monoclonal CHO cell populations using a transposable vector devoid of selection gene. Overall, we conclude that MAR and transposable vectors can be used to improve transgene expression from few genomic transposition events, which may be useful when expression from a low number of integrated transgene copies must be obtained and/or when antibiotic selection cannot be applied.

Migrating concepts: Immigrant integration and the regulation of religious dress in France and Canada

Religion in general, and Islam in particular, has become one of the main focal points of policy-making and constitutional politics in many Western liberal states. This article proposes to examine the legal and political dynamics behind new regulations targeting individual religious practices of Muslims. Although one could presuppose that church-state relations or the understanding of secularism is the main factor accounting for either accommodation or prohibition of Muslim religious practices, I make the case that the policy frame used to conceptualize the integration of immigrants in each national context is a more significant influence on how a liberal state approaches the legal regulation of individual practices such as veiling. However, this influence must be assessed carefully since it may have different effects on the different institutional actors in charge of regulating religion, such as the Courts and the legislature. To assess these hypotheses I compare two countries, France and Canada, which are solid examples of two contrasting national policy frames for the integration of immigrants.

Multi-scale integration and predictability in resting state brain activity.

The human brain displays heterogeneous organization in both structure and function. Here we develop a method to characterize brain regions and networks in terms of information-theoretic measures. We look at how these measures scale when larger spatial regions as well as larger connectome sub-networks are considered. This framework is applied to human brain fMRI recordings of resting-state activity and DSI-inferred structural connectivity. We find that strong functional coupling across large spatial distances distinguishes functional hubs from unimodal low-level areas, and that this long-range functional coupling correlates with structural long-range efficiency on the connectome. We also find a set of connectome regions that are both internally integrated and coupled to the rest of the brain, and which resemble previously reported resting-state networks. Finally, we argue that information-theoretic measures are useful for characterizing the functional organization of the brain at multiple scales.

Multisensory Integration and Perceptual Enhancement

We perceive our environment through multiple sensory channels. Nonetheless, research has traditionally focused on the investigation of sensory processing within single modalities. Thus, investigating how our brain integrates multisensory information is of crucial importance for understanding how organisms cope with a constantly changing and dynamic environment. During my thesis I have investigated how multisensory events impact our perception and brain responses, either when auditory-visual stimuli were presented simultaneously or how multisensory events at one point in time impact later unisensory processing. In "Looming signals reveal synergistic principles of multisensory integration" (Cappe, Thelen et al., 2012) we investigated the neuronal substrates involved in motion detection in depth under multisensory vs. unisensory conditions. We have shown that congruent auditory-visual looming (i.e. approaching) signals are preferentially integrated by the brain. Further, we show that early effects under these conditions are relevant for behavior, effectively speeding up responses to these combined stimulus presentations. In "Electrical neuroimaging of memory discrimination based on single-trial multisensory learning" (Thelen et al., 2012), we investigated the behavioral impact of single encounters with meaningless auditory-visual object parings upon subsequent visual object recognition. In addition to showing that these encounters lead to impaired recognition accuracy upon repeated visual presentations, we have shown that the brain discriminates images as soon as ~100ms post-stimulus onset according to the initial encounter context. In "Single-trial multisensory memories affect later visual and auditory object recognition" (Thelen et al., in review) we have addressed whether auditory object recognition is affected by single-trial multisensory memories, and whether recognition accuracy of sounds was similarly affected by the initial encounter context as visual objects. We found that this is in fact the case. We propose that a common underlying brain network is differentially involved during encoding and retrieval of images and sounds based on our behavioral findings. - Nous percevons l'environnement qui nous entoure à l'aide de plusieurs organes sensoriels. Antérieurement, la recherche sur la perception s'est focalisée sur l'étude des systèmes sensoriels indépendamment les uns des autres. Cependant, l'étude des processus cérébraux qui soutiennent l'intégration de l'information multisensorielle est d'une importance cruciale pour comprendre comment notre cerveau travail en réponse à un monde dynamique en perpétuel changement. Pendant ma thèse, j'ai ainsi étudié comment des événements multisensoriels impactent notre perception immédiate et/ou ultérieure et comment ils sont traités par notre cerveau. Dans l'étude " Looming signals reveal synergistic principles of multisensory integration" (Cappe, Thelen et al., 2012), nous nous sommes intéressés aux processus neuronaux impliqués dans la détection de mouvements à l'aide de l'utilisation de stimuli audio-visuels seuls ou combinés. Nos résultats ont montré que notre cerveau intègre de manière préférentielle des stimuli audio-visuels combinés s'approchant de l'observateur. De plus, nous avons montré que des effets précoces, observés au niveau de la réponse cérébrale, influencent notre comportement, en accélérant la détection de ces stimuli. Dans l'étude "Electrical neuroimaging of memory discrimination based on single-trial multisensory learning" (Thelen et al., 2012), nous nous sommes intéressés à l'impact qu'a la présentation d'un stimulus audio-visuel sur l'exactitude de reconnaissance d'une image. Nous avons étudié comment la présentation d'une combinaison audio-visuelle sans signification, impacte, au niveau comportementale et cérébral, sur la reconnaissance ultérieure de l'image. Les résultats ont montré que l'exactitude de la reconnaissance d'images, présentées dans le passé, avec un son sans signification, est inférieure à celle obtenue dans le cas d'images présentées seules. De plus, notre cerveau différencie ces deux types de stimuli très tôt dans le traitement d'images. Dans l'étude "Single-trial multisensory memories affect later visual and auditory object recognition" (Thelen et al., in review), nous nous sommes posés la question si l'exactitude de ia reconnaissance de sons était affectée de manière semblable par la présentation d'événements multisensoriels passés. Ceci a été vérifié par nos résultats. Nous avons proposé que cette similitude puisse être expliquée par le recrutement différentiel d'un réseau neuronal commun.

Budgeting rockfall and modeling sedimentary delivery in torrent systems

This thesis is a compilation of projects to study sediment processes recharging debris flow channels. These works, conducted during my stay at the University of Lausanne, focus in the geological and morphological implications of torrent catchments to characterize debris supply, a fundamental element to predict debris flows. Other aspects of sediment dynamics are considered, e.g. the coupling headwaters - torrent, as well as the development of a modeling software that simulates sediment transfer in torrent systems. The sediment activity at Manival, an active torrent system of the northern French Alps, was investigated using terrestrial laser scanning and supplemented with geostructural investigations and a survey of sediment transferred in the main torrent. A full year of sediment flux could be observed, which coincided with two debris flows and several bedload transport events. This study revealed that both debris flows generated in the torrent and were preceded in time by recharge of material from the headwaters. Debris production occurred mostly during winter - early spring time and was caused by large slope failures. Sediment transfers were more puzzling, occurring almost exclusively in early spring subordinated to runoffconditions and in autumn during long rainfall. Intense rainstorms in summer did not affect debris storage that seems to rely on the stability of debris deposits. The morpho-geological implication in debris supply was evaluated using DEM and field surveys. A slope angle-based classification of topography could characterize the mode of debris production and transfer. A slope stability analysis derived from the structures in rock mass could assess susceptibility to failure. The modeled rockfall source areas included more than 97% of the recorded events and the sediment budgets appeared to be correlated to the density of potential slope failure. This work showed that the analysis of process-related terrain morphology and of susceptibility to slope failure document the sediment dynamics to quantitatively assess erosion zones leading to debris flow activity. The development of erosional landforms was evaluated by analyzing their geometry with the orientations of potential rock slope failure and with the direction of the maximum joint frequency. Structure in rock mass, but in particular wedge failure and the dominant discontinuities, appear as a first-order control of erosional mechanisms affecting bedrock- dominated catchment. They represent some weaknesses that are exploited primarily by mass wasting processes and erosion, promoting not only the initiation of rock couloirs and gullies, but also their propagation. Incorporating the geological control in geomorphic processes contributes to better understand the landscape evolution of active catchments. A sediment flux algorithm was implemented in a sediment cascade model that discretizes the torrent catchment in channel reaches and individual process-response systems. Each conceptual element includes in simple manner geomorphological and sediment flux information derived from GIS complemented with field mapping. This tool enables to simulate sediment transfers in channels considering evolving debris supply and conveyance, and helps reducing the uncertainty inherent to sediment budget prediction in torrent systems. Cette thèse est un recueil de projets d'études des processus de recharges sédimentaires des chenaux torrentiels. Ces travaux, réalisés lorsque j'étais employé à l'Université de Lausanne, se concentrent sur les implications géologiques et morphologiques des bassins dans l'apport de sédiments, élément fondamental dans la prédiction de laves torrentielles. D'autres aspects de dynamique sédimentaire ont été abordés, p. ex. le couplage torrent - bassin, ainsi qu'un modèle de simulation du transfert sédimentaire en milieu torrentiel. L'activité sédimentaire du Manival, un système torrentiel actif des Alpes françaises, a été étudiée par relevés au laser scanner terrestre et complétée par une étude géostructurale ainsi qu'un suivi du transfert en sédiments du torrent. Une année de flux sédimentaire a pu être observée, coïncidant avec deux laves torrentielles et plusieurs phénomènes de charriages. Cette étude a révélé que les laves s'étaient générées dans le torrent et étaient précédées par une recharge de débris depuis les versants. La production de débris s'est passée principalement en l'hiver - début du printemps, causée par de grandes ruptures de pentes. Le transfert était plus étrange, se produisant presque exclusivement au début du printemps subordonné aux conditions d'écoulement et en automne lors de longues pluies. Les orages d'été n'affectèrent guère les dépôts, qui semblent dépendre de leur stabilité. Les implications morpho-géologiques dans l'apport sédimentaire ont été évaluées à l'aide de MNT et études de terrain. Une classification de la topographie basée sur la pente a permis de charactériser le mode de production et transfert. Une analyse de stabilité de pente à partir des structures de roches a permis d'estimer la susceptibilité à la rupture. Les zones sources modélisées comprennent plus de 97% des chutes de blocs observées et les bilans sédimentaires sont corrélés à la densité de ruptures potentielles. Ce travail d'analyses des morphologies du terrain et de susceptibilité à la rupture documente la dynamique sédimentaire pour l'estimation quantitative des zones érosives induisant l'activité torrentielle. Le développement des formes d'érosion a été évalué par l'analyse de leur géométrie avec celle des ruptures potentielles et avec la direction de la fréquence maximale des joints. Les structures de roches, mais en particulier les dièdres et les discontinuités dominantes, semblent être très influents dans les mécanismes d'érosion affectant les bassins rocheux. Ils représentent des zones de faiblesse exploitées en priorité par les processus de démantèlement et d'érosion, encourageant l'initiation de ravines et couloirs, mais aussi leur propagation. L'incorporation du control géologique dans les processus de surface contribue à une meilleure compréhension de l'évolution topographique de bassins actifs. Un algorithme de flux sédimentaire a été implémenté dans un modèle en cascade, lequel divise le bassin en biefs et en systèmes individuels répondant aux processus. Chaque unité inclut de façon simple les informations géomorpologiques et celles du flux sédimentaire dérivées à partir de SIG et de cartographie de terrain. Cet outil permet la simulation des transferts de masse dans les chenaux, considérants la variabilité de l'apport et son transport, et aide à réduire l'incertitude liée à la prédiction de bilans sédimentaires torrentiels. Ce travail vise très humblement d'éclairer quelques aspects de la dynamique sédimentaire en milieu torrentiel.

Machine learning analysis and modeling of interest rate curves

The present research deals with the review of the analysis and modeling of Swiss franc interest rate curves (IRC) by using unsupervised (SOM, Gaussian Mixtures) and supervised machine (MLP) learning algorithms. IRC are considered as objects embedded into different feature spaces: maturities; maturity-date, parameters of Nelson-Siegel model (NSM). Analysis of NSM parameters and their temporal and clustering structures helps to understand the relevance of model and its potential use for the forecasting. Mapping of IRC in a maturity-date feature space is presented and analyzed for the visualization and forecasting purposes.