Impact of model complexity on cross-temporal transferability in Maxent species distribution models: An assessment using paleobotanical data

Maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) is a widely used algorithm for predicting species distributions across space and time. Properly assessing the uncertainty in such predictions is non-trivial and requires validation with independent datasets. Notably, model complexity (number of model parameters) remains a major concern in relation to overfitting and, hence, transferability of Maxent models. An emerging approach is to validate the cross-temporal transferability of model predictions using paleoecological data. In this study, we assess the effect of model complexity on the performance of Maxent projections across time using two European plant species (Alnus giutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Corylus avellana L) with an extensive late Quaternary fossil record in Spain as a study case. We fit 110 models with different levels of complexity under present time and tested model performance using AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and AlCc (corrected Akaike Information Criterion) through the standard procedure of randomly partitioning current occurrence data. We then compared these results to an independent validation by projecting the models to mid-Holocene (6000 years before present) climatic conditions in Spain to assess their ability to predict fossil pollen presence-absence and abundance. We find that calibrating Maxent models with default settings result in the generation of overly complex models. While model performance increased with model complexity when predicting current distributions, it was higher with intermediate complexity when predicting mid-Holocene distributions. Hence, models of intermediate complexity resulted in the best trade-off to predict species distributions across time. Reliable temporal model transferability is especially relevant for forecasting species distributions under future climate change. Consequently, species-specific model tuning should be used to find the best modeling settings to control for complexity, notably with paleoecological data to independently validate model projections. For cross-temporal projections of species distributions for which paleoecological data is not available, models of intermediate complexity should be selected.

Electroencephalogram paroxysmal theta characterizes cataplexy in mice and children.

Astute control of brain activity states is critical for adaptive behaviours and survival. In mammals and birds, electroencephalographic recordings reveal alternating states of wakefulness, slow wave sleep and paradoxical sleep (or rapid eye movement sleep). This control is profoundly impaired in narcolepsy with cataplexy, a disease resulting from the loss of orexin/hypocretin neurotransmitter signalling in the brain. Narcolepsy with cataplexy is characterized by irresistible bouts of sleep during the day, sleep fragmentation during the night and episodes of cataplexy, a sudden loss of muscle tone while awake and experiencing emotions. The neural mechanisms underlying cataplexy are unknown, but commonly thought to involve those of rapid eye movement-sleep atonia, and cataplexy typically is considered as a rapid eye movement sleep disorder. Here we reassess cataplexy in hypocretin (Hcrt, also known as orexin) gene knockout mice. Using a novel video/electroencephalogram double-blind scoring method, we show that cataplexy is not a state per se, as believed previously, but a dynamic, multi-phased process involving a reproducible progression of states. A knockout-specific state and a stereotypical paroxysmal event were introduced to account for signals and electroencephalogram spectral characteristics not seen in wild-type littermates. Cataplexy almost invariably started with a brief phase of wake-like electroencephalogram, followed by a phase featuring high-amplitude irregular theta oscillations, defining an activity profile distinct from paradoxical sleep, referred to as cataplexy-associated state and in the course of which 1.5-2 s high-amplitude, highly regular, hypersynchronous paroxysmal theta bursts (∼7 Hz) occurred. In contrast to cataplexy onset, exit from cataplexy did not show a predictable sequence of activities. Altogether, these data contradict the hypothesis that cataplexy is a state similar to paradoxical sleep, even if long cataplexies may evolve into paradoxical sleep. Although not exclusive to overt cataplexy, cataplexy-associated state and hypersynchronous paroxysmal theta activities are highly enriched during cataplexy in hypocretin/orexin knockout mice. Their occurrence in an independent narcolepsy mouse model, the orexin/ataxin 3 transgenic mouse, undergoing loss of orexin neurons, was confirmed. Importantly, we document for the first time similar paroxysmal theta hypersynchronies (∼4 Hz) during cataplexy in narcoleptic children. Lastly, we show by deep recordings in mice that the cataplexy-associated state and hypersynchronous paroxysmal theta activities are independent of hippocampal theta and involve the frontal cortex. Cataplexy hypersynchronous paroxysmal theta bursts may represent medial prefrontal activity, associated in humans and rodents with reward-driven motor impulse, planning and conflict monitoring.

An introduction to model-independent diffusion magnetic resonance imaging.

ABSTRACT: q-Space-based techniques such as diffusion spectrum imaging, q-ball imaging, and their variations have been used extensively in research for their desired capability to delineate complex neuronal architectures such as multiple fiber crossings in each of the image voxels. The purpose of this article was to provide an introduction to the q-space formalism and the principles of basic q-space techniques together with the discussion on the advantages as well as challenges in translating these techniques into the clinical environment. A review of the currently used q-space-based protocols in clinical research is also provided.

Size-dependent predation by Dugesia lugubris (Turbellaria) on Physa acuta (Gastropoda): experiments and model

1. We investigated experimentally predation by the flatworm Dugesia lugubris on the snail Physa acuta in relation to predator body length and to prey morphology [shell length (SL) and aperture width (AW)]. 2. SL and AW correlate strongly in the field, but display significant and independent variance among populations. In the laboratory, predation by Dugesia resulted in large and significant selection differentials on both SL and AW. Analysis of partial effects suggests that selection on AW was indirect, and mediated through its strong correlation with SL. 3. The probability P(ij) for a snail of size category i (SL) to be preyed upon by a flatworm of size category j was fitted with a Poisson-probability distribution, the mean of which increased linearly with predator size (i). Despite the low number of parameters, the fit was excellent (r2 = 0.96). We offer brief biological interpretations of this relationship with reference to optimal foraging theory. 4. The largest size class of Dugesia (>2 cm) did not prey on snails larger than 7 mm shell length. This size threshold might offer Physa a refuge against flatworm predation and thereby allow coexistence in the field. 5. Our results are further discussed with respect to previous field and laboratory observations on P acuta life-history patterns, in particular its phenotypic variance in adult body size.

A mathematical model to describe fat oxidation kinetics during graded exercise.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to develop a mathematical model (sine model, SIN) to describe fat oxidation kinetics as a function of the relative exercise intensity [% of maximal oxygen uptake (%VO2max)] during graded exercise and to determine the exercise intensity (Fatmax) that elicits maximal fat oxidation (MFO) and the intensity at which the fat oxidation becomes negligible (Fatmin). This model included three independent variables (dilatation, symmetry, and translation) that incorporated primary expected modulations of the curve because of training level or body composition. METHODS: Thirty-two healthy volunteers (17 women and 15 men) performed a graded exercise test on a cycle ergometer, with 3-min stages and 20-W increments. Substrate oxidation rates were determined using indirect calorimetry. SIN was compared with measured values (MV) and with other methods currently used [i.e., the RER method (MRER) and third polynomial curves (P3)]. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in the fitting accuracy between SIN and P3 (P = 0.157), whereas MRER was less precise than SIN (P < 0.001). Fatmax (44 +/- 10% VO2max) and MFO (0.37 +/- 0.16 g x min(-1)) determined using SIN were significantly correlated with MV, P3, and MRER (P < 0.001). The variable of dilatation was correlated with Fatmax, Fatmin, and MFO (r = 0.79, r = 0.67, and r = 0.60, respectively, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The SIN model presents the same precision as other methods currently used in the determination of Fatmax and MFO but in addition allows calculation of Fatmin. Moreover, the three independent variables are directly related to the main expected modulations of the fat oxidation curve. SIN, therefore, seems to be an appropriate tool in analyzing fat oxidation kinetics obtained during graded exercise.

Albuterol delivery in an in vitro pediatric ventilator lung model: comparison of jet, ultrasonic, and mesh nebulizers.

OBJECTIVE: : To determine the influence of nebulizer types and nebulization modes on bronchodilator delivery in a mechanically ventilated pediatric lung model. DESIGN: : In vitro, laboratory study. SETTING: : Research laboratory of a university hospital. INTERVENTIONS: : Using albuterol as a marker, three nebulizer types (jet nebulizer, ultrasonic nebulizer, and vibrating-mesh nebulizer) were tested in three nebulization modes in a nonhumidified bench model mimicking the ventilatory pattern of a 10-kg infant. The amounts of albuterol deposited on the inspiratory filters (inhaled drug) at the end of the endotracheal tube, on the expiratory filters, and remaining in the nebulizers or in the ventilator circuit were determined. Particle size distribution of the nebulizers was also measured. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: : The inhaled drug was 2.8% ± 0.5% for the jet nebulizer, 10.5% ± 2.3% for the ultrasonic nebulizer, and 5.4% ± 2.7% for the vibrating-mesh nebulizer in intermittent nebulization during the inspiratory phase (p < 0.01). The most efficient nebulizer was the vibrating-mesh nebulizer in continuous nebulization (13.3% ± 4.6%, p < 0.01). Depending on the nebulizers, a variable but important part of albuterol was observed as remaining in the nebulizers (jet and ultrasonic nebulizers), or being expired or lost in the ventilator circuit (all nebulizers). Only small particles (range 2.39-2.70 µm) reached the end of the endotracheal tube. CONCLUSIONS: : Important differences between nebulizer types and nebulization modes were seen for albuterol deposition at the end of the endotracheal tube in an in vitro pediatric ventilator-lung model. New aerosol devices, such as ultrasonic and vibrating-mesh nebulizers, were more efficient than the jet nebulizer.

A higher mutational burden in females supports a "female protective model" in neurodevelopmental disorders.

Increased male prevalence has been repeatedly reported in several neurodevelopmental disorders (NDs), leading to the concept of a "female protective model." We investigated the molecular basis of this sex-based difference in liability and demonstrated an excess of deleterious autosomal copy-number variants (CNVs) in females compared to males (odds ratio [OR] = 1.46, p = 8 × 10(-10)) in a cohort of 15,585 probands ascertained for NDs. In an independent autism spectrum disorder (ASD) cohort of 762 families, we found a 3-fold increase in deleterious autosomal CNVs (p = 7 × 10(-4)) and an excess of private deleterious single-nucleotide variants (SNVs) in female compared to male probands (OR = 1.34, p = 0.03). We also showed that the deleteriousness of autosomal SNVs was significantly higher in female probands (p = 0.0006). A similar bias was observed in parents of probands ascertained for NDs. Deleterious CNVs (>400 kb) were maternally inherited more often (up to 64%, p = 10(-15)) than small CNVs < 400 kb (OR = 1.45, p = 0.0003). In the ASD cohort, increased maternal transmission was also observed for deleterious CNVs and SNVs. Although ASD females showed higher mutational burden and lower cognition, the excess mutational burden remained, even after adjustment for those cognitive differences. These results strongly suggest that females have an increased etiological burden unlinked to rare deleterious variants on the X chromosome. Carefully phenotyped and genotyped cohorts will be required for identifying the symptoms, which show gender-specific liability to mutational burden.

A general model to predict individual exposure to solar UV by using ambient irradiance data

Excessive exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) is the main cause of skin cancer. Specific prevention should be further developed to target overexposed or highly vulnerable populations. A better characterisation of anatomical UV exposure patterns is however needed for specific prevention. To develop a regression model for predicting the UV exposure ratio (ER, ratio between the anatomical dose and the corresponding ground level dose) for each body site without requiring individual measurements. A 3D numeric model (SimUVEx) was used to compute ER for various body sites and postures. A multiple fractional polynomial regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of ER. The regression model used simulation data and its performance was tested on an independent data set. Two input variables were sufficient to explain ER: the cosine of the maximal daily solar zenith angle and the fraction of the sky visible from the body site. The regression model was in good agreement with the simulated data ER (R(2)=0.988). Relative errors up to +20% and -10% were found in daily doses predictions, whereas an average relative error of only 2.4% (-0.03% to 5.4%) was found in yearly dose predictions. The regression model predicts accurately ER and UV doses on the basis of readily available data such as global UV erythemal irradiance measured at ground surface stations or inferred from satellite information. It renders the development of exposure data on a wide temporal and geographical scale possible and opens broad perspectives for epidemiological studies and skin cancer prevention.

Involvement of circulating CEA in liver metastases from colorectal cancers re-examined in a new experimental model.

Both experimental and clinical data show evidence of a correlation between elevated blood levels of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and the development of liver metastases from colorectal carcinomas. However, a cause-effect relationship between these two observations has not been demonstrated. For this reason, we developed a new experimental model to evaluate the possible role of circulating CEA in the facilitation of liver metastases. A CEA-negative subclone from the human colon carcinoma cell line CO115 was transfected either with CEA-cDNA truncated at its 3' end by the deletion of 78 base pairs leading to the synthesis of a secreted form of CEA or with a full-length CEA-cDNA leading to the synthesis of the entire CEA molecule linked to the cell surface by a GPI anchor. Transfectants were selected either for their high CEA secretion (clone CO115-2C2 secreting up to 13 microg CEA per 10(6) cells within 72 h) or for their high CEA membrane expression (clone CO115-5F12 expressing up to 1 x 10(6) CEA molecules per cell). When grafted subcutaneously, CO115-2C2 cells gave rise to circulating CEA levels that were directly related to the tumour volume (from 100 to 1000 ng ml(-1) for tumours ranging from 100 to 1000 mm3), whereas no circulating CEA was detectable in CO115 and CO115-5F12 tumour-bearing mice. Three series of nude mice bearing a subcutaneous xenograft from either clone CO115-2C2 or the CO115-5F12 transfectant, or an untransfected CO115 xenograft, were further challenged for induction of experimental liver metastases by intrasplenic injection of three different CEA-expressing human colorectal carcinoma cell lines (LoVo, LS174T or CO112). The number and size of the liver metastases were shown to be independent of the circulating CEA levels induced by the subcutaneous CEA secreting clone (CO115-2C2), but they were directly related to the metastatic properties of the intrasplenically injected tumour cells.

Age-dependent impairment of spine morphology and synaptic plasticity in hippocampal CA1 neurons of a presenilin 1 transgenic mouse model of Alzheimer's disease.

Presenilin 1 (PS1) mutations are responsible for a majority of early onset familial Alzheimer's disease (FAD) cases, in part by increasing the production of Abeta peptides. However, emerging evidence suggests other possible effects of PS1 on synaptic dysfunction where PS1 might contribute to the pathology independent of Abeta. We chose to study the L286V mutation, an aggressive FAD mutation which has never been analyzed at the electrophysiological and morphological levels. In addition, we analyzed for the first time the long term effects of wild-type human PS1 overexpression. We investigated the consequences of the overexpression of either wild-type human PS1 (hPS1) or the L286V mutated PS1 variant (mutPS1) on synaptic functions by analyzing synaptic plasticity and associated spine density changes from 3 to 15 months of age. We found that mutPS1 induces a transient increase observed only in 4- to 5-month-old mutPS1 animals in NMDA receptor (NMDA-R)-mediated responses and LTP compared with hPS1 mice and nontransgenic littermates. The increase in synaptic functions is concomitant with an increase in spine density. With increasing age, however, we found that the overexpression of human wild-type PS1 progressively decreased NMDA-R-mediated synaptic transmission and LTP, without neurodegeneration. These results identify for the first time a transient increase in synaptic function associated with L286V mutated PS1 variant in an age-dependent manner. In addition, they support the view that the PS1 overexpression promotes synaptic dysfunction in an Abeta-independent manner and underline the crucial role of PS1 during both normal and pathological aging.

Oxidative stress and inflammation response after nanoparticle exposure : differences between human lung cell monocultures and an advanced three-dimensional model of the human epithelial airways

Combustion-derived and manufactured nanoparticles (NPs) are known to provoke oxidative stress and inflammatory responses in human lung cells; therefore, they play an important role during the development of adverse health effects. As the lungs are composed of more than 40 different cell types, it is of particular interest to perform toxicological studies with co-cultures systems, rather than with monocultures of only one cell type, to gain a better understanding of complex cellular reactions upon exposure to toxic substances. Monocultures of A549 human epithelial lung cells, human monocyte-derived macrophages and monocyte-derived dendritic cells (MDDCs) as well as triple cell co-cultures consisting of all three cell types were exposed to combustion-derived NPs (diesel exhaust particles) and to manufactured NPs (titanium dioxide and single-walled carbon nanotubes). The penetration of particles into cells was analysed by transmission electron microscopy. The amount of intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS), the total antioxidant capacity (TAC) and the production of tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-a and interleukin (IL)-8 were quantified. The results of the monocultures were summed with an adjustment for the number of each single cell type in the triple cell co-culture. All three particle types were found in all cell and culture types. The production of ROS was induced by all particle types in all cell cultures except in monocultures of MDDCs. The TAC and the (pro-)inflammatory reactions were not statistically significantly increased by particle exposure in any of the cell cultures. Interestingly, in the triple cell co-cultures, the TAC and IL-8 concentrations were lower and the TNF-a concentrations were higher than the expected values calculated from the monocultures. The interplay of different lung cell types seems to substantially modulate the oxidative stress and the inflammatory responses after NP exposure. [Authors]

Cholesterol and sphingomyelin drive ligand-independent T-cell antigen receptor nanoclustering.

The T-cell antigen receptor (TCR) exists in monomeric and nanoclustered forms independently of antigen binding. Although the clustering is involved in the regulation of T-cell sensitivity, it is unknown how the TCR nanoclusters form. We show that cholesterol is required for TCR nanoclustering in T cells and that this clustering enhances the avidity but not the affinity of the TCR-antigen interaction. Investigating the mechanism of the nanoclustering, we found that radioactive photocholesterol specifically binds to the TCRβ chain in vivo. In order to reduce the complexity of cellular membranes, we used a synthetic biology approach and reconstituted the TCR in liposomes of defined lipid composition. Both cholesterol and sphingomyelin were required for the formation of TCR dimers in phosphatidylcholine-containing large unilamellar vesicles. Further, the TCR was localized in the liquid disordered phase in giant unilamellar vesicles. We propose a model in which cholesterol and sphingomyelin binding to the TCRβ chain causes TCR dimerization. The lipid-induced TCR nanoclustering enhances the avidity to antigen and thus might be involved in enhanced sensitivity of memory compared with naive T cells. Our work contributes to the understanding of the function of specific nonannular lipid-membrane protein interactions.

The independent psychological effects of participation in demonstrations

Street demonstrations have received the lion's share of scholarly attention to collective action. This article starts by returning to this research in order to raise some methodological questions about how to collect data on demonstrations and on the validity of the subsequent results. Next, based on my own research on demonstrations, I suggest some questions that deserve to be analyzed. In particular, I argue that we should work more on the psychological effects of participation in demonstrations. One potential line of investigation would be to more systematically explore the socializing effects of political events. Indeed, vivid political events should be important catalysts because they can have significant effects. Events may have an impact at any age but socializing effects will differ based on one's position in the life cycle, from conversion for younger participants to substantiation for older participants. I hypothesize, in line with Mannheim's (1952) "impressionable years" model of socialization research, that people especially recall events as important if they happened in their adolescence or early adulthood.

Local moderate magnetically induced hyperthermia using an implant formed in situ in a mouse tumor model.

Purpose: We investigate a new heat delivery technique for the local treatment of solid tumors. The technique involves injecting a formulation that solidifies to form an implant in situ. This implant entraps superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles (SPIONs) embedded in silica microbeads for magnetically induced moderate hyperthermia. Particle entrapment prevents phagocytosis and distant migration of SPIONs. The implant can be repeatedly heated by magnetic induction. Methods: We evaluated heating and treatment efficacies by means of thermometry and survival studies in nude mice carrying subcutaneous human colocarcinomas. At day 1, we injected the formulation into the tumor. At day 2, a single 20-min hyperthermia treatment was delivered by 141-kHz magnetic induction using field strengths of 9 to 12 mT under thermometry. Results: SPIONs embedded in silica microbeads were effectively confined within the implant at the injection site. Heat-induced necro-apoptosis was assessed by histology on day 3. On average, 12 mT resulted in tumor temperature of 47.8 degrees C, and over 70% tumor necrosis that correlated to the heat dose (AUC = 282 degrees C.min). In contrast, a 9-mT field strength induced tumoral temperature of 40 degrees C (AUC = 131 degrees C.min) without morphologically identifiable necrosis. Survival after treatment with 10.5 or 12 mT fields was significantly improved compared to non-implanted and implanted controls. Median survival times were 27 and 37 days versus 12 and 21 days respectively. Conclusion: Five of eleven mice (45%) of the 12 mT group survived one year without any tumor recurrence, holding promise for tumor therapy using magnetically induced moderate hyperthermia through injectable implants.