Estimating the basic reproductive number from viral sequence data.

Epidemiological processes leave a fingerprint in the pattern of genetic structure of virus populations. Here, we provide a new method to infer epidemiological parameters directly from viral sequence data. The method is based on phylogenetic analysis using a birth-death model (BDM) rather than the commonly used coalescent as the model for the epidemiological transmission of the pathogen. Using the BDM has the advantage that transmission and death rates are estimated independently and therefore enables for the first time the estimation of the basic reproductive number of the pathogen using only sequence data, without further assumptions like the average duration of infection. We apply the method to genetic data of the HIV-1 epidemic in Switzerland.

Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995-1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.

Cost-effective experimental design to support modeling of concentration-response functions

Modeling concentration-response function became extremely popular in ecotoxicology during the last decade. Indeed, modeling allows determining the total response pattern of a given substance. However, reliable modeling is consuming in term of data, which is in contradiction with the current trend in ecotoxicology, which aims to reduce, for cost and ethical reasons, the number of data produced during an experiment. It is therefore crucial to determine experimental design in a cost-effective manner. In this paper, we propose to use the theory of locally D-optimal designs to determine the set of concentrations to be tested so that the parameters of the concentration-response function can be estimated with high precision. We illustrated this approach by determining the locally D-optimal designs to estimate the toxicity of the herbicide dinoseb on daphnids and algae. The results show that the number of concentrations to be tested is often equal to the number of parameters and often related to the their meaning, i.e. they are located close to the parameters. Furthermore, the results show that the locally D-optimal design often has the minimal number of support points and is not much sensitive to small changes in nominal values of the parameters. In order to reduce the experimental cost and the use of test organisms, especially in case of long-term studies, reliable nominal values may therefore be fixed based on prior knowledge and literature research instead of on preliminary experiments

Can a targeted psychological intervention be effective for young people following a first manic episode? Results from an 18-month pilot study.

Aim: There is a scarce literature describing psychological interventions for a young, first-episode cohort who have experienced psychotic mania. This study aimed to assess whether a manualized psychological intervention could be effective in reducing symptomatology and relapse, and improve functional outcome in this population. Methods: The study was an open-label design, drawn from a larger pharmacotherapy trial. All participants in the pharmacotherapy trial were offered a manualized psychological intervention in addition to case management. Inclusion in the psychotherapy group was based on participant's choice, and on completion of four or more of the eight modules offered. All clinical files were audited to ensure accuracy of group allocation. Forty young people aged 15 to 25 years old who had experienced a manic episode with psychotic features were recruited into the study, with 20 people in the combined treatment as usual plus psychotherapy group (P+TAU), and an equal number of matched control participants who received treatment as usual (TAU) within the same service. All participants were prescribed antipsychotic and mood-stabilizing medication. Symptomatic, functional and relapse measures were taken both at baseline and at 18-month follow-up. Results: Manic symptoms improved significantly for both groups, with no differences between groups. Depression scores and overall symptom severity were significantly lower in the P + TAU group. No differences were evident between groups with regard to numbers or type of relapse. The P + TAU group had significantly better social and occupational functioning after 18 months. Conclusion: This study suggests that a manualized psychological intervention targeted to a first-episode population can be effective in reducing depression and overall symptom severity, and can improve functional outcome following a first episode of psychotic mania.

Environment-dependent microevolution in a Mediterranean pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton).

BACKGROUND: A central question for understanding the evolutionary responses of plant species to rapidly changing environments is the assessment of their potential for short-term (in one or a few generations) genetic change. In our study, we consider the case of Pinus pinaster Aiton (maritime pine), a widespread Mediterranean tree, and (i) test, under different experimental conditions (growth chamber and semi-natural), whether higher recruitment in the wild from the most successful mothers is due to better performance of their offspring; and (ii) evaluate genetic change in quantitative traits across generations at two different life stages (mature trees and seedlings) that are known to be under strong selection pressure in forest trees. RESULTS: Genetic control was high for most traits (h2 = 0.137-0.876) under the milder conditions of the growth chamber, but only for ontogenetic change (0.276), total height (0.415) and survival (0.719) under the more stressful semi-natural conditions. Significant phenotypic selection gradients were found in mature trees for traits related to seed quality (germination rate and number of empty seeds). Moreover, female relative reproductive success was significantly correlated with offspring performance for specific leaf area (SLA) in the growth chamber experiment, and stem mass fraction (SMF) in the experiment under semi-natural conditions, two adaptive traits related to abiotic stress-response in pines. Selection gradients based on genetic covariance of seedling traits and responses to selection at this stage involved traits related to biomass allocation (SMF) and growth (as decomposed by a Gompertz model) or delayed ontogenetic change, depending also on the testing environment. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the evidence of microevolutionary change in adaptive traits in maritime pine, directional or disruptive changes are difficult to predict due to variable selection at different life stages and environments. At mature-tree stages, higher female effective reproductive success can be explained by differences in their production of offspring (due to seed quality) and, to a lesser extent, by seemingly better adapted seedlings. Selection gradients and responses to selection for seedlings also differed across experimental conditions. The distinct processes involved at the two life stages (mature trees or seedlings) together with environment-specific responses advice caution when predicting likely evolutionary responses to environmental change in Mediterranean forest trees.

Random mating with a finite number of matings.

Random mating is the null model central to population genetics. One assumption behind random mating is that individuals mate an infinite number of times. This is obviously unrealistic. Here we show that when each female mates a finite number of times, the effective size of the population is substantially decreased.

Introduction of Trojan sex chromosomes to boost population growth.

Conservation programs that deal with small or declining populations often aim at a rapid increase of population size to above-critical levels in order to avoid the negative effects of demographic stochasticity and genetic problems like inbreeding depression, fixation of deleterious alleles, or a general loss of genetic variability and hence of evolutionary potential. In some situations, population growth is determined by the number of females available for reproduction, and manipulation of family sex ratios towards more daughters has beneficial effects. If sex determination is predominantly genetic but environmentally reversible, as is the case in many amphibia, reptiles, and fish, Trojan sex chromosomes could be introduced into populations in order to change sex ratios towards more females. We analyse the possible consequences for the introduction of XX-males (XX individuals that have been changed to phenotypic males in a XY/XX sex determination system) and ZW males, WW males, or WW females (in a ZZ/ZW sex determination system). We find that the introduction of WW individuals can be most effective for an increase of population growth, especially if the induced sex change has little or no effect on viability.

Effective size of two feral domestic cat populations (Felis catus L): effect of the mating system.

A variety of behavioural traits have substantial effects on the gene dynamics and genetic structure of local populations. The mating system is a plastic trait that varies with environmental conditions in the domestic cat (Felis catus) allowing an intraspecific comparison of the impact of this feature on genetic characteristics of the population. To assess the potential effect of the heterogenity of males' contribution to the next generation on variance effective size, we applied the ecological approach of Nunney & Elam (1994) based upon a demographic and behavioural study, and the genetic 'temporal methods' of Waples (1989) and Berthier et al. (2002) using microsatellite markers. The two cat populations studied were nearly closed, similar in size and survival parameters, but differed in their mating system. Immigration appeared extremely restricted in both cases due to environmental and social constraints. As expected, the ratio of effective size to census number (Ne/N) was higher in the promiscuous cat population (harmonic mean = 42%) than in the polygynous one (33%), when Ne was calculated from the ecological method. Only the genetic results based on Waples' estimator were consistent with the ecological results, but failed to evidence an effect of the mating system. Results based on the estimation of Berthier et al. (2002) were extremely variable, with Ne sometimes exceeding census size. Such low reliability in the genetic results should retain attention for conservation purposes.

Glucose and lactate are equally effective in energizing activity-dependent synaptic vesicle turnover in purified cortical neurons.

This study examines the role of glucose and lactate as energy substrates to sustain synaptic vesicle cycling. Synaptic vesicle turnover was assessed in a quantitative manner by fluorescence microscopy in primary cultures of mouse cortical neurons. An electrode-equipped perfusion chamber was used to stimulate cells both by electrical field and potassium depolarization during image acquisition. An image analysis procedure was elaborated to select in an unbiased manner synaptic boutons loaded with the fluorescent dye N-(3-triethylammoniumpropyl)-4-(4-(dibutylamino)styryl)pyridinium dibromide (FM1-43). Whereas a minority of the sites fully released their dye content following electrical stimulation, others needed subsequent K(+) depolarization to achieve full release. This functional heterogeneity was not significantly altered by the nature of metabolic substrates. Repetitive stimulation sequences of FM1-43 uptake and release were then performed in the absence of any metabolic substrate and showed that the number of active sites dramatically decreased after the first cycle of loading/unloading. The presence of 1 mM glucose or lactate was sufficient to sustain synaptic vesicle cycling under these conditions. Moreover, both substrates were equivalent for recovery of function after a phase of decreased metabolic substrate availability. Thus, lactate appears to be equivalent to glucose for sustaining synaptic vesicle turnover in cultured cortical neurons during activity.

Individual reproductive success and effective population size in the greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula.

In order to investigate the determinants of effective population size in the socially monogamous Crocidura russula, the reproductive output of 44 individuals was estimated through genetic assignment methods. The individual variance in breeding success turned out to be surprisingly high, mostly because the males were markedly less monogamous than expected from previous behavioural data. Males paired simultaneously with up to four females and polygynous males had significantly more offspring than monogamous ones. The variance in female reproductive success also exceeded that of a Poisson distribution (though to a lesser extent), partly because females paired with multiply mated males weaned significantly more offspring. Polyandry also occurred occasionally, but only sequentially (i.e. without multiple paternity of litters). Estimates of the effective to census size ratio were ca. 0.60, which excluded the mating system as a potential explanation for the high genetic variance found in this shrew's populations. Our data suggest that gene flow from the neighbourhood (up to one-third of the total recruitment) is the most likely cause of the high levels of genetic diversity observed in this shrew's subpopulations.

Tawny Owl Strix aluco as a bioindicator of Barn Owl Tyto alba breeding and the effect of winter severity on Barn Owl reproduction

In the temperate zone, food availability and winter weather place serious constraints on European Barn Owl Tyto alba populations. Using data collected over 22years in a Swiss population, we analysed the influence of early pre-breeding food conditions and winter severity on between-year variations in population size and reproductive performance. To estimate pre-breeding food conditions, we attempted a novel approach based on an index that combines Tawny Owl Strix aluco reproductive parameters and the occurrence of wood mice Apodemus sp. in their diet. Tawny Owls breed earlier in the season than Barn Owls and are strongly dependent on the abundance of wood mice for breeding. This index was strongly positively associated with the number of breeding pairs and early breeding in the Barn Owl. Winter severity, measured by snow cover and low temperatures, had a pronounced negative influence on the size of the breeding population and clutch size. Food conditions early in the breeding season and winter severity differentially affect the Barn Owl life cycle. We were able to use aspects of the ecology and demography of the Tawny Owl as an indicator of the quality of the environment for a related species of similar ecology, in this case the Barn Owl.

The population genetics of clonal and partially clonal diploids.

The consequences of variable rates of clonal reproduction on the population genetics of neutral markers are explored in diploid organisms within a subdivided population (island model). We use both analytical and stochastic simulation approaches. High rates of clonal reproduction will positively affect heterozygosity. As a consequence, nearly twice as many alleles per locus can be maintained and population differentiation estimated as F(ST) value is strongly decreased in purely clonal populations as compared to purely sexual ones. With increasing clonal reproduction, effective population size first slowly increases and then points toward extreme values when the reproductive system tends toward strict clonality. This reflects the fact that polymorphism is protected within individuals due to fixed heterozygosity. Contrarily, genotypic diversity smoothly decreases with increasing rates of clonal reproduction. Asexual populations thus maintain higher genetic diversity at each single locus but a lower number of different genotypes. Mixed clonal/sexual reproduction is nearly indistinguishable from strict sexual reproduction as long as the proportion of clonal reproduction is not strongly predominant for all quantities investigated, except for genotypic diversities (both at individual loci and over multiple loci).

A step beyond--the relevance of depressed mood and mastery in the interplay between the number of social roles and alcohol use.

OBJECTIVES: The present study examines whether depressed mood and external control mediate or moderate the relationship between the number of social roles and alcohol use. PARTICIPANTS: The analysis was based on a national representative sample of 25- to 45-year-old male and female drinkers in Switzerland. METHOD: The influence of depressed mood and external control on the relationship between the number of social roles (parenthood, partnership, employment) and alcohol use was examined in linear structural equation models (mediation) and in multiple regressions (moderation) stratified by gender. All analyses were adjusted for age and education level. RESULTS: Holding more roles was associated with lower alcohol use, lower external control and lower depressed mood. The study did not find evidence of depressed mood or external control mediating the social roles-alcohol relationship. A moderation effect was identified among women only, whereby a protective effect of having more roles could not be found among those who scored high on external control. In general, a stronger link was observed between roles and alcohol use, while depressed mood and external control acted independently on drinking. With the exception of women with high external control, the study found no link between a higher number of social roles and greater alcohol use. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that drinking behaviours are more strongly linked to external control and depressed mood than they are to the number of social roles. The study also demonstrates that in any effective alcohol prevention policy, societal actions that enable individuals to combine more social roles play a central role.

Cefuroxime prophylaxis is effective in noninstrumented spine surgery: a double-blind, placebo-controlled study.

STUDY DESIGN: Double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trial. OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficacy of 1 preoperative 1.5 g dose of cefuroxime in preventing surgical site infection after surgery for herniated disc. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Antibiotic prophylaxis was only tested in nonconclusive trials in this setting. METHODS: The study was conducted in 2 university hospitals in Switzerland. Patients were assessed for occurrence of surgical site infection (defined by the criteria of the Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention), other infections, or adverse events up to 6 months after surgery. Outcome measures were compared in a univariate, per-protocol analysis. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics were similar in patients allocated to cefuroxime (n = 613) or placebo (n = 624). Eight (1.3%) patients in the cefuroxime group and 18 patients (2.8%) in the placebo group developed a surgical site infection (P = 0.073). A diagnosis of spondylodiscitis or epidural abscess was made in 9 patients in the placebo group, but none in the cefuroxime group (P < 0.01), which corresponded to a number necessary to treat of 69 patients to prevent one of these infections. There were no significant adverse events attributed to either cefuroxime or placebo. CONCLUSION: A single, preoperative dose of cefuroxime significantly reduces the risk of organ-space infection, most notably spondylodiscitis, after surgery for herniated disc.

Genomic copy number aberrations in glioblastoma, response to therapy and molecular machanisms

Résumé : Le glioblastome (GBM, WHO grade IV) est la tumeur cérébrale primaire la plus fréquente et la plus maligne, son pronostic reste très réservé et sa réponse aux différents traitements limitée. Récemment, une étude clinique randomisée (EORTC 26981/NCIC CE.3) a démontré que le traitement combiné de temozolomide et radiothérapie (RT/TMZ) est le meilleur dans les cas de GBM nouvellement diagnostiqués [1]. Cependant, seul un sous-groupe de patients bénéficie du traitement RT/TMZ et même parmi eux, leur survie reste très limitée. Pour tenter de mieux comprendre les réponses au traitement RT/TMZ, la biologie du GBM, identifier d'autres facteurs de résistance et découvrir de nouvelles cibles aux traitements, nous avons conduit une analyse moléculaire étendue à 73 patients inclus dans cette étude clinique. Nous avons complété les résultats moléculaires déjà obtenus par un profil génomique du nombre de copies par Array Comparative Genomic Hybridization. Afin d'atteindre nos objectifs, nous avons analysé en parallèle les données cliniques des patients et leurs profils moléculaires. Nos résultats confirment des analyses connues dans le domaine des aberrations du nombre de copies (CNA) et de profils du glioblastome. Nous avons observé une bonne corrélation entre le CNA génomique et l'expression de l'ARN messager dans le glioblastome et identifié un nouveau modèle de CNA du chromosome 7 pouvant présenter un intérêt clinique. Nous avons aussi observé par l'analyse du CNA que moins de 10% des glioblastomes conservent leurs mécanismes de suppression de tumeurs p53 et Rb1. Nous avons aussi observé que l'amplification du CDK4 peut constituer un facteur supplémentaire de résistance au traitement RT/TMZ, cette observation nécessite confirmation sur un plus grand nombre d'analyses. Nous avons montré que dans notre analyse des profils moléculaires et cliniques, il n'est pas possible de différencier le GBM à composante oligodendrogliale (GBM-O) du glioblastome. En superposant les profils moléculaires et les modèles expérimentaux in vitro, nous avons identifié WIF-1 comme un gène suppresseur de tumeur probable et une activation du signal WNT dans la pathologie du glioblastome. Ces observations pourraient servir à une meilleure compréhension de cette maladie dans le futur. Abstract : Glioblastoma, (GBM, WHO grade IV) is the most malignant and most frequent primary brain tumor with a very poor prognosis and response to therapy. A recent randomized clinical trial (EORTC26981/NCIC CE.3) established RT/TMZ as the 1St effective chemo-radiation therapy in newly diagnosed GBM [1]. However only a genetic subgroup of patients benefit from RT/TMZ and even in this subgroup overall survival remains very dismal. To explain the observed response to RT/TMZ, have a better understanding of GBM biology, identify other resistance factors and discover new drugable targets a comprehensive molecular analysis was performed in 73 of these GBM trial cohort. We complemented the available molecular data with a genomic copy number profiling by Array Comparative Genomic Hybridization. We proceeded to align the molecular profiles and the Clinical data, to meet our project objectives. Our data confirm known GBM Copy Number Aberrations and profiles. We observed a good correlation of genomic CN and mRNA expression in GBM, and identified new interesting CNA pattern for chromosome 7 with a potential clinical value. We also observed that by copy number aberration data alone, less than 10% of GBM have an intact p53 and Rb1 tumor .suppressor pathways. We equally observed that CDK4 amplification might constitute an additional RT/TMZ resistant factor, an observation that will need confirmation in a larger data set. We show that the molecular and clinical profiles in our data set, does not support the identification of GBM-O as a new entity in GBM. By combining the molecular profiles and in vitro model experiments we identify WIF1 as a potential GBM TSG and an activated WNT signaling as a pathologic event in GBM worth incorporation in attempts to better understand and impact outcome in this disease.