Mesurer la pratique religieuse: différentes enquêtes, différents taux? Analyse comparative à partir de la Suisse

In Switzerland, national census data imply that 84.5 percent are affiliated with religious groups and national survey data imply that 15 percent attend a service on a given weekend in 2009. Research in other countries has shown that attendance is often over-reported, but the level of over-report varies across countries. Thus, in the United States, polls show high and stable levels of religious practice, while Church participation surveys indicate rates twice lower. This article assesses the validity of self-reported affiliation and attendance in Switzerland using the 2009 Swiss National Congregations Study (NCS). Results confirm the observation offered by others that the Swiss census undercounts the persuasions absent from the stylized response categories and they show for the first time that Swiss probably over-report their church attendance, though not as much as in the United States.

Use of variability in national and regional data to estimate the prevalence of lymphangioleiomyomatosis.

Background: Understanding the true prevalence of lymphangioleiomyomatosis (LAM) is important in estimating disease burden and targeting specific interventions. As with all rare diseases, obtaining reliable epidemiological data is difficult and requires innovative approaches.Aim: To determine the prevalence and incidence of LAM using data from patient organizations in seven countries, and to use the extent to which the prevalence of LAM varies regionally and nationally to determine whether prevalence estimates are related to health-care provision.Methods: Numbers of women with LAM were obtained from patient groups and national databases from seven countries (n = 1001). Prevalence was calculated for regions within countries using female population figures from census data. Incidence estimates were calculated for the USA, UK and Switzerland. Regional variation in prevalence and changes in incidence over time were analysed using Poisson regression and linear regression.Results: Prevalence of LAM in the seven countries ranged from 3.4 to 7.8/million women with significant variation, both between countries and between states in the USA. This variation did not relate to the number of pulmonary specialists in the region nor the percentage of population with health insurance, but suggests a large number of patients remain undiagnosed. The incidence of LAM from 2004 to 2008 ranged from 0.23 to 0.31/million women/per year in the USA, UK and Switzerland.Conclusions: Using this method, we have found that the prevalence of LAM is higher than that previously recorded and that many patients with LAM are undiagnosed.

Population Normalization with Ammonium in Wastewater-Based Epidemiology: Application to Illicit Drug Monitoring

Fluctuations in ammonium (NH4+), measured as NH4-N loads using an ion-selective electrode installed at the inlet of a sewage treatment plant, showed a distinctive pattern which was associated to weekly (i.e., commuters) and seasonal (i.e., holidays) fluctuations of the population. Moreover, population size estimates based on NH4-N loads were lower compared to census data. Diurnal profiles of benzoylecgonine (BE) and 11-nor-9-carboxy-Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC-COOH) were shown to be strongly correlated to NH4-N. Characteristic patterns, which reflect the prolonged nocturnal activity of people during the weekend, could be observed for BE, cocaine, and a major metabolite of MDMA (i.e., 4-hydroxy-3-methoxymethamphetamine). Additional 24 h composite samples were collected between February and September 2013. Per-capita loads (i.e., grams per day per 1000 inhabitants) were computed using census data and NH4-N measurements. Normalization with NH4-N did not modify the overall pattern, suggesting that the magnitude of fluctuations in the size of the population is negligible compared to those of illicit drug loads. Results show that fluctuations in the size of the population over longer periods of time or during major events can be monitored using NH4-N loads: either using raw NH4-N loads or population size estimates based on NH4-N loads, if information about site-specific NH4-N population equivalents is available.

Determinants of sustained viral suppression in HIV-infected patients with self-reported poor adherence to antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Good adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is critical for successful HIV treatment. However, some patients remain virologically suppressed despite suboptimal adherence. We hypothesized that this could result from host genetic factors influencing drug levels. METHODS: Eligible individuals were Caucasians treated with efavirenz (EFV) and/or boosted lopinavir (LPV/r) with self-reported poor adherence, defined as missing doses of ART at least weekly for more than 6 months. Participants were genotyped for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in candidate genes previously reported to decrease EFV (rs3745274, rs35303484, rs35979566 in CYP2B6) and LPV/r clearance (rs4149056 in SLCO1B1, rs6945984 in CYP3A, rs717620 in ABCC2). Viral suppression was defined as having HIV-1 RNA <400 copies/ml throughout the study period. RESULTS: From January 2003 until May 2009, 37 individuals on EFV (28 suppressed and 9 not suppressed) and 69 on LPV/r (38 suppressed and 31 not suppressed) were eligible. The poor adherence period was a median of 32 weeks with 18.9% of EFV and 20.3% of LPV/r patients reporting missed doses on a daily basis. The tested SNPs were not determinant for viral suppression. Reporting missing >1 dose/week was associated with a lower probability of viral suppression compared to missing 1 dose/week (EFV: odds ratio (OR) 0.11, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.01-0.99; LPV/r: OR 0.29, 95% CI: 0.09-0.94). In both groups, the probability of remaining suppressed increased with the duration of continuous suppression prior to the poor adherence period (EFV: OR 3.40, 95% CI: 0.62-18.75; LPV/r: OR 5.65, 95% CI: 1.82-17.56). CONCLUSIONS: The investigated genetic variants did not play a significant role in the sustained viral suppression of individuals with suboptimal adherence. Risk of failure decreased with longer duration of viral suppression in this population.

Perception of tobacco, cannabis, and alcohol use of others is associated with one's own use.

BACKGROUND: Interventions have been developed to reduce overestimations of substance use among others, especially for alcohol and among students. Nevertheless, there is a lack of knowledge on misperceptions of use for substances other than alcohol. We studied the prevalence of misperceptions of use for tobacco, cannabis, and alcohol and whether the perception of tobacco, cannabis, and alcohol use by others is associated with one's own use. METHODS: Participants (n=5216) in a cohort study from a census of 20-year-old men (N=11,819) estimated the prevalence of tobacco and cannabis use among peers of the same age and sex and the percentage of their peers drinking more alcohol than they did. Using the census data, we determined whether participants overestimated, accurately estimated, or underestimated substance use by others. Regression models were used to compare substance use by those who overestimated or underestimated peer substance with those who accurately estimated peer use. Other variables included in the analyses were the presence of close friends with alcohol or other drug problems and family history of substance use. RESULTS: Tobacco use by others was overestimated by 46.1% and accurately estimated by 37.3% of participants. Cannabis use by others was overestimated by 21.8% and accurately estimated by 31.6% of participants. Alcohol use by others was overestimated by more than half (53.4%) of participants and accurately estimated by 31.0%. In multivariable models, compared with participants who accurately estimated tobacco use by others, those who overestimated it reported smoking more cigarettes per week (incidence rate ratio [IRR] [95% CI], 1.17 [range, 1.05, 1.32]). There was no difference in the number of cigarettes smoked per week between those underestimating and those accurately estimating tobacco use by others (IRR [95% CI], 0.99 [range, 0.84, 1.17]). Compared with participants accurately estimating cannabis use by others, those who overestimated it reported more days of cannabis use per month (IRR [95% CI], 1.43 [range, 1.21, 1.70]), whereas those who underestimated it reported fewer days of cannabis use per month (IRR [95% CI], 0.62 [range, 0.23, 0.75]). Compared with participants accurately estimating alcohol use by others, those who overestimated it reported consuming more drinks per week (IRR [95% CI], 1.57 [range, 1.43, 1.72]), whereas those who underestimated it reported consuming fewer drinks per week (IRR [95% CI], 0.41 [range, 0.34, 0.50]). CONCLUSIONS: Perceptions of substance use by others are associated with one's own use. In particular, overestimating use by others is frequent among young men and is associated with one's own greater consumption. This association is independent of the substance use environment, indicating that, even in the case of proximity to a heavy-usage group, perception of use by others may influence one's own use. If preventive interventions are to be based on normative feedback, and their aim is to reduce overestimations of use by others, then the prevalence of overestimation indicates that they may be of benefit to roughly half the population; or, in the case of cannabis, to as few as 20%. Such interventions should take into account differing strengths of association across substances.

Nonagenarians and centenarians in Switzerland, 1860-2001: a demographic analysis.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To explore the rapid rise of the extremely old population, showing the magnitude of the increase and identifying demographic mechanisms underlying this increase. DESIGN: Demographic analysis using census data, yearly population estimates, and mortality statistics. SETTING: Switzerland 1860-2001. MAIN RESULTS: Indicators suggest a strong increase in the number of nonagenarians and centenarians in Switzerland as compared with other countries. The increase is mostly attributable to the decline in mortality after age 80. This decline started in the 1950s. CONCLUSION: Nonagenarians and centenarians constitute a new population, which became sizeable after 1950 in Switzerland. There is a need to monitor this population with appropriate demographic and epidemiological indicators.

Neighbourhood socio-economic position, late presentation and outcomes in people living with HIV in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVES: Inequalities and inequities in health are an important public health concern. In Switzerland, mortality in the general population varies according to the socio-economic position (SEP) of neighbourhoods. We examined the influence of neighbourhood SEP on presentation and outcomes in HIV-positive individuals in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). METHODS: The neighbourhood SEP of patients followed in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) 2000-2013 was obtained on the basis of 2000 census data on the 50 nearest households (education and occupation of household head, rent, mean number of persons per room). We used Cox and logistic regression models to examine the probability of late presentation, virologic response to cART, loss to follow-up and death across quintiles of neighbourhood SEP. RESULTS: A total of 4489 SHCS participants were included. Presentation with advanced disease [CD4 cell count <200 cells/μl or AIDS] and with AIDS was less common in neighbourhoods of higher SEP: the age and sex-adjusted odds ratio (OR) comparing the highest with the lowest quintile of SEP was 0.71 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.58-0.87] and 0.59 (95% CI 0.45-0.77), respectively. An undetectable viral load at 6 months of cART was more common in the highest than in the lowest quintile (OR 1.52; 95% CI 1.14-2.04). Loss to follow-up, mortality and causes of death were not associated with neighbourhood SEP. CONCLUSION: Late presentation was more common and virologic response to cART less common in HIV-positive individuals living in neighbourhoods of lower SEP, but in contrast to the general population, there was no clear trend for mortality.

Population genomics of eusocial insects: the costs of a vertebrate-like effective population size

The evolution of reproductive division of labour and social life in social insects has lead to the emergence of several life-history traits and adaptations typical of larger organisms: social insect colonies can reach masses of several kilograms, they start reproducing only when they are several years old, and can live for decades. These features and the monopolization of reproduction by only one or few individuals in a colony should affect molecular evolution by reducing the effective population size. We tested this prediction by analysing genome-wide patterns of coding sequence polymorphism and divergence in eusocial vs. noneusocial insects based on newly generated RNA-seq data. We report very low amounts of genetic polymorphism and an elevated ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous changes - a marker of the effective population size - in four distinct species of eusocial insects, which were more similar to vertebrates than to solitary insects regarding molecular evolutionary processes. Moreover, the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions was positively correlated with the level of social complexity across ant species. These results are fully consistent with the hypothesis of a reduced effective population size and an increased genetic load in eusocial insects, indicating that the evolution of social life has important consequences at both the genomic and population levels.

Linking landscape- and population ecology for large population management modelling: the case of Ibex (capra ibex) in Switzerland

La biologie de la conservation est communément associée à la protection de petites populations menacées d?extinction. Pourtant, il peut également être nécessaire de soumettre à gestion des populations surabondantes ou susceptibles d?une trop grande expansion, dans le but de prévenir les effets néfastes de la surpopulation. Du fait des différences tant quantitatives que qualitatives entre protection des petites populations et contrôle des grandes, il est nécessaire de disposer de modèles et de méthodes distinctes. L?objectif de ce travail a été de développer des modèles prédictifs de la dynamique des grandes populations, ainsi que des logiciels permettant de calculer les paramètres de ces modèles et de tester des scénarios de gestion. Le cas du Bouquetin des Alpes (Capra ibex ibex) - en forte expansion en Suisse depuis sa réintroduction au début du XXème siècle - servit d?exemple. Cette tâche fut accomplie en trois étapes : En premier lieu, un modèle de dynamique locale, spécifique au Bouquetin, fut développé : le modèle sous-jacent - structuré en classes d?âge et de sexe - est basé sur une matrice de Leslie à laquelle ont été ajoutées la densité-dépendance, la stochasticité environnementale et la chasse de régulation. Ce modèle fut implémenté dans un logiciel d?aide à la gestion - nommé SIM-Ibex - permettant la maintenance de données de recensements, l?estimation automatisée des paramètres, ainsi que l?ajustement et la simulation de stratégies de régulation. Mais la dynamique d?une population est influencée non seulement par des facteurs démographiques, mais aussi par la dispersion et la colonisation de nouveaux espaces. Il est donc nécessaire de pouvoir modéliser tant la qualité de l?habitat que les obstacles à la dispersion. Une collection de logiciels - nommée Biomapper - fut donc développée. Son module central est basé sur l?Analyse Factorielle de la Niche Ecologique (ENFA) dont le principe est de calculer des facteurs de marginalité et de spécialisation de la niche écologique à partir de prédicteurs environnementaux et de données d?observation de l?espèce. Tous les modules de Biomapper sont liés aux Systèmes d?Information Géographiques (SIG) ; ils couvrent toutes les opérations d?importation des données, préparation des prédicteurs, ENFA et calcul de la carte de qualité d?habitat, validation et traitement des résultats ; un module permet également de cartographier les barrières et les corridors de dispersion. Le domaine d?application de l?ENFA fut exploré par le biais d?une distribution d?espèce virtuelle. La comparaison à une méthode couramment utilisée pour construire des cartes de qualité d?habitat, le Modèle Linéaire Généralisé (GLM), montra qu?elle était particulièrement adaptée pour les espèces cryptiques ou en cours d?expansion. Les informations sur la démographie et le paysage furent finalement fusionnées en un modèle global. Une approche basée sur un automate cellulaire fut choisie, tant pour satisfaire aux contraintes du réalisme de la modélisation du paysage qu?à celles imposées par les grandes populations : la zone d?étude est modélisée par un pavage de cellules hexagonales, chacune caractérisée par des propriétés - une capacité de soutien et six taux d?imperméabilité quantifiant les échanges entre cellules adjacentes - et une variable, la densité de la population. Cette dernière varie en fonction de la reproduction et de la survie locale, ainsi que de la dispersion, sous l?influence de la densité-dépendance et de la stochasticité. Un logiciel - nommé HexaSpace - fut développé pour accomplir deux fonctions : 1° Calibrer l?automate sur la base de modèles de dynamique (par ex. calculés par SIM-Ibex) et d?une carte de qualité d?habitat (par ex. calculée par Biomapper). 2° Faire tourner des simulations. Il permet d?étudier l?expansion d?une espèce envahisseuse dans un paysage complexe composé de zones de qualité diverses et comportant des obstacles à la dispersion. Ce modèle fut appliqué à l?histoire de la réintroduction du Bouquetin dans les Alpes bernoises (Suisse). SIM-Ibex est actuellement utilisé par les gestionnaires de la faune et par les inspecteurs du gouvernement pour préparer et contrôler les plans de tir. Biomapper a été appliqué à plusieurs espèces (tant végétales qu?animales) à travers le Monde. De même, même si HexaSpace fut initialement conçu pour des espèces animales terrestres, il pourrait aisément être étndu à la propagation de plantes ou à la dispersion d?animaux volants. Ces logiciels étant conçus pour, à partir de données brutes, construire un modèle réaliste complexe, et du fait qu?ils sont dotés d?une interface d?utilisation intuitive, ils sont susceptibles de nombreuses applications en biologie de la conservation. En outre, ces approches peuvent également s?appliquer à des questions théoriques dans les domaines de l?écologie des populations et du paysage.<br/><br/>Conservation biology is commonly associated to small and endangered population protection. Nevertheless, large or potentially large populations may also need human management to prevent negative effects of overpopulation. As there are both qualitative and quantitative differences between small population protection and large population controlling, distinct methods and models are needed. The aim of this work was to develop theoretical models to predict large population dynamics, as well as computer tools to assess the parameters of these models and to test management scenarios. The alpine Ibex (Capra ibex ibex) - which experienced a spectacular increase since its reintroduction in Switzerland at the beginning of the 20th century - was used as paradigm species. This task was achieved in three steps: A local population dynamics model was first developed specifically for Ibex: the underlying age- and sex-structured model is based on a Leslie matrix approach with addition of density-dependence, environmental stochasticity and culling. This model was implemented into a management-support software - named SIM-Ibex - allowing census data maintenance, parameter automated assessment and culling strategies tuning and simulating. However population dynamics is driven not only by demographic factors, but also by dispersal and colonisation of new areas. Habitat suitability and obstacles modelling had therefore to be addressed. Thus, a software package - named Biomapper - was developed. Its central module is based on the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) whose principle is to compute niche marginality and specialisation factors from a set of environmental predictors and species presence data. All Biomapper modules are linked to Geographic Information Systems (GIS); they cover all operations of data importation, predictor preparation, ENFA and habitat suitability map computation, results validation and further processing; a module also allows mapping of dispersal barriers and corridors. ENFA application domain was then explored by means of a simulated species distribution. It was compared to a common habitat suitability assessing method, the Generalised Linear Model (GLM), and was proven better suited for spreading or cryptic species. Demography and landscape informations were finally merged into a global model. To cope with landscape realism and technical constraints of large population modelling, a cellular automaton approach was chosen: the study area is modelled by a lattice of hexagonal cells, each one characterised by a few fixed properties - a carrying capacity and six impermeability rates quantifying exchanges between adjacent cells - and one variable, population density. The later varies according to local reproduction/survival and dispersal dynamics, modified by density-dependence and stochasticity. A software - named HexaSpace - was developed, which achieves two functions: 1° Calibrating the automaton on the base of local population dynamics models (e.g., computed by SIM-Ibex) and a habitat suitability map (e.g. computed by Biomapper). 2° Running simulations. It allows studying the spreading of an invading species across a complex landscape made of variously suitable areas and dispersal barriers. This model was applied to the history of Ibex reintroduction in Bernese Alps (Switzerland). SIM-Ibex is now used by governmental wildlife managers to prepare and verify culling plans. Biomapper has been applied to several species (both plants and animals) all around the World. In the same way, whilst HexaSpace was originally designed for terrestrial animal species, it could be easily extended to model plant propagation or flying animals dispersal. As these softwares were designed to proceed from low-level data to build a complex realistic model and as they benefit from an intuitive user-interface, they may have many conservation applications. Moreover, theoretical questions in the fields of population and landscape ecology might also be addressed by these approaches.

Administering brief motivational interventions to young men: Results from a pilot census transmissible study among 19 year-old francophone Swiss men.

AIMS - To pilot the implementation of brief motivational intervention (BMI) among conscripts, and to test the effectiveness of BMI in young men voluntarily showing up for a single face-to-face alcohol BMI session. Participants were conscripts attending the army recruitment process in Lausanne. This process is mandatory for all Swiss males at age 19 and Lausanne serves all francophone Swiss men. METHODS - Of 3'227 young men that were seen during the army recruitment procedures, 445 voluntarily showed up for a BMI and 367 were included in the study (exclusions were random and unsystematic and related to organizational aspects in the recruitment center). After an initial assessment, subjects were randomized into two groups: an immediate BMI and a 6-month delayed BMI (waiting list design). A 6-month follow-up assessment was conducted in both groups. BMI was a face-to-face 20 minutes counseling session with a psychologist trained in motivational interviewing at baseline and a telephone session for the control group at follow-up. Strategies of BMI included the exploration and evocation of a possible behavior change, importance of future change, readiness to change, and commitment to change. A filmed example of such an intervention is available in French at www.alcoologie.ch. RESULTS - All procedures are now fully implemented and working and the provision of preventive efforts found general approval by the army. 3'227 were eligible for BMI and 445 of them (13.8%) showed up for receiving a BMI. 367 were included in the study, 181 in the BMI group and 186 in the control group. More than 86% of those included were reached at follow-up. With one exception all findings on alcohol use went in the expected direction, i.e. a stronger decrease in alcohol use (or a smaller increase as for usual weekly drinking amount) in the BMI group. The risk for risky single occasion drinking (RSOD) decreased from 57% at-risk users at baseline to 50.6%, i.e. a 6.4% point decrease in the BMI group, while there was only a 0.6% point decrease (from 57.5% to 56.9%) in the control group. Moreover, the study showed that there was a likelihood of crossover effects for other substances like tobacco smoking and cannabis use. Despite these encouraging and consistent positive findings, none reached significance at conventional levels (p < 0.05). DISCUSSION - Data suggest a beneficial impact of BMI on alcohol use outcomes and potential effect on other substance use in 19-year old men attending the army recruitment and showing up voluntarily for BMI. As the main aim was to implement and test feasibility of conducting BMI in this setting none of our findings reached statistical significance. The consistency of findings across measures and substances, however, raises hope that non-significance in the present study does not mean no effect, but mainly insufficient power of this pilot study. [Authors]