Welfare regimes and change in the employment structure: Britain, Denmark and Germany since 1990

Welfare states are often reduced to their role as providers of social protection and redistribution. In 1990, Esping-Andersen argued that they also affect employment creation and the class structure. We analyse the stratification outcomes for three welfare regimes - Britain, Germany and Denmark - over the 1990s and 2000s. Based on individual-level surveys, we observe a disproportionate increase among professionals and managers, and a decline among production workers and clerks. The result is clear-cut occupational upgrading in Denmark and Germany. In Britain, high and low-end service jobs expanded, resulting in a polarized version of upgrading. Growth in low-end service jobs - and thus polarization - is no precondition for full employment. Both Britain and Denmark halved their low-educated unemployment rate between 1995 and 2008. Yet low-end service jobs expanded only in Britain, not in Denmark. The cause is the evolution of labour supply: rising educational attainment means that fewer low-educated workers look for low-skilled jobs.

Institutional fragmentation and coordination initiatives in western European welfare states

As a result of recent welfare state transformations, and most notably the reorientation of welfare states towards activation, the internal fragmentation of social security systems has emerged as a key policy problem in many western European countries. The types of response that have been adopted, however, vary substantially across countries, ranging from the encouragement of inter-agency collaboration to the outright merger of agencies. The purpose of this exploratory article is twofold. First, by proposing the concept of coordination initiatives, it tries to develop a better conceptualization of the cross-national diversity in responses to the fragmentation problem. Second, starting from existing theories of welfare state development and policy change, it presents first hypotheses accounting for the variation observed in coordination initiatives.

Welfare loss with municipal amalgamations and the willingness-to-pay for the municipality name

Functional advantages and drawbacks are commonly mentioned to rationally justify or condemn municipality amalgamations. However, many consolidation projects are resisted by local governments or citizens on the grounds that amalgamation would dampen local identity. A municipality's name change is probably the most visible sign of the loss of community bond experienced by citizens at amalgamation time. This article aims to put a value on this loss by measuring citizen willingness to pay for their city name. This methodological approach innovates upon the literature on municipal amalgamation and place branding by exploiting the versatility of the so-called contingent valuation method (CVM). CVM confronts respondents, in a survey setting, with a hypothetical market in which a characteristic of interest is exchanged. Here the characteristic is the possibility to retain one's city name for an amalgamated jurisdiction. The article presents the estimates provided by a survey conducted in four Swiss cities.

Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown

Age-related change in melanin-based coloration of Barn owls (Tyto alba): females that become more female-like and males that become more male-like perform better

Ornament expression fluctuates with age in many organisms. Whether these changes are adaptively plastic is poorly known. In order to understand the ultimate function of melanin-based ornaments, we studied their within-individual fluctuations and their covariation with fitness-related traits. In barn owls (Tyto alba), individuals vary from reddish-brown pheomelanic to white and from immaculate to marked with black eumelanic spots, males being less reddish and less spotted than females. During the first molt, both sexes became less pheomelanic, females displayed larger spots and males fewer spots, but the extent of these changes was not associated with reproduction. At subsequent molts, intra-individual changes in melanin-based traits covaried with simultaneous reproduction changes. Adult females bred earlier in the season and laid larger eggs when they became scattered with larger spots, while adults of both sexes produced larger broods when they became whiter. These results suggest that the production of melanin pigments and fitness-related life history traits are concomitantly regulated in a sex-specific way.

The Change Questionnaire predicts change in hazardous tobacco and alcohol use.

INTRODUCTION: Assessing motivation for change is deemed an important step in the treatment process that allows further refinement of the intervention in motivational interviewing (MI) and brief MI (BMI) adaptations. During MI (and BMI) sessions, motivation for change is expressed by the client as "change talk", i.e. all statements inclined toward or away from change. We tested the predictive validity of the Change Questionnaire, a 12-item instrument assessing motivation to change, on hazardous tobacco and alcohol use. METHODS: As part of the baseline measurements for a randomized controlled trial on multi-substance BMI at the Lausanne recruitment center (army conscription is mandatory in Switzerland for males at age 20, and thus provides a unique opportunity to address a non-clinical and largely representative sample of young men), 213 participants completed the questionnaire on tobacco and 95 on alcohol and were followed-up six months later. The overall Change Questionnaire score and its six subscales (Desire, Ability, Reasons, Need, Commitment, and Taking steps) were used as predictors of hazardous tobacco use (defined as daily smoking) and hazardous alcohol use (defined as more than one occasion with six standard drinks or more per month, and/or more than 21 standard drinks per week) in bivariate logistic regression models at follow-up. RESULTS: Higher overall Change scores were significant predictors of decreased risk for hazardous tobacco (odds ratio [OR] = 0.83, p = 0.046) and alcohol (OR = 0.76, p = 0.03) use. Several sub-dimensions were associated with the outcomes in bivariate analyses. Using a principal components analysis to reduce the number of predictors for multivariate models, we obtained two components. 'Ability to change' was strongly related to change in hazardous tobacco use (OR = 0.54, p < 0.001), the second we interpreted as 'Other change language dimensions' and which was significantly related to change in hazardous alcohol use (OR = 0.81, p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The present findings lend initial support for the predictive validity of the Change Questionnaire on hazardous tobacco and alcohol use, making it an interesting and potentially useful tool for assessing motivation to change among young males.

Does readiness to change predict subsequent alcohol consumption in medical inpatients with unhealthy alcohol use?

We studied whether readiness to change predicts alcohol consumption (drinks per day) 3 months later in 267 medical inpatients with unhealthy alcohol use. We used 3 readiness to change measures: a 1 to 10 visual analog scale (VAS) and two factors of the Stages of Change Readiness and Treatment Eagerness Scale: Perception of Problems (PP) and Taking Action (TA). Subjects with the highest level of VAS-measured readiness consumed significantly fewer drinks 3 months later [Incidence rate ratio (IRR) and 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57 (0.36, 0.91) highest vs. lowest tertile]. Greater PP was associated with more drinking [IRR (95%CI): 1.94 (1.02, 3.68) third vs. lowest quartile]. Greater TA scores were associated with less drinking [IRR (95%CI): 0.42 (0.23, 0.78) highest vs. lowest quartile]. Perception of Problems' association with more drinking may reflect severity rather than an aspect of readiness associated with ability to change; high levels of Taking Action appear to predict less drinking. Although assessing readiness to change may have clinical utility, assessing the patient's planned actions may have more predictive value for future improvement in alcohol consumption.

Climate change effects on animal and plant phylogenetic diversity in southern Africa

Much attention has been paid to the effects of climate change on species' range reductions and extinctions. There is however surprisingly little information on how climate change driven threat may impact the tree of life and result in loss of phylogenetic diversity (PD). Some plant families and mammalian orders reveal nonrandom extinction patterns, but many other plant families do not. Do these discrepancies reflect different speciation histories and does climate induced extinction result in the same discrepancies among different groups? Answers to these questions require representative taxon sampling. Here, we combine phylogenetic analyses, species distribution modeling, and climate change projections on two of the largest plant families in the Cape Floristic Region (Proteaceae and Restionaceae), as well as the second most diverse mammalian order in Southern Africa (Chiroptera), and an herbivorous insect genus (Platypleura) in the family Cicadidae to answer this question. We model current and future species distributions to assess species threat levels over the next 70years, and then compare projected with random PD survival. Results for these animal and plant clades reveal congruence. PD losses are not significantly higher under predicted extinction than under random extinction simulations. So far the evidence suggests that focusing resources on climate threatened species alone may not result in disproportionate benefits for the preservation of evolutionary history.