Intra-individual variation in body temperature and pectoral muscle size in nestling Alpine swifts Apus melba in response to an episode of inclement weather

The Alpine swift (Apus melba) forages on insects caught exclusively on the wing, implying that dependent nestlings face acute food shortage in periods of cold and rainy weather. Therefore, there should be strong selection on nestling swifts to evolve physiological strategies to cope with periods of undernutrition. We have investigated intra-individual changes in nestling pectoral muscle and body temperature in response to a 1-week period of inclement weather. The pectoral muscle is the largest reserves of proteins, and nestlings have to devote a large amount of energy in the maintenance of body temperature. The results show that nestling pectoral muscle size and body temperature were significantly reduced during the episode of inclement weather. Assuming that these physiological changes are adaptive, our study suggests that nestling swifts spare energy by a pronounced reduction (up to 18 degrees C) in body temperature and use proteins from the pectoral muscle as a source of extra energy to survive prolonged periods of fasting.

Demographic effects of extreme winter weather in the barn owl.

Extreme weather events can lead to immediate catastrophic mortality. Due to their rare occurrence, however, the long-term impacts of such events for ecological processes are unclear. We examined the effect of extreme winters on barn owl (Tyto alba) survival and reproduction in Switzerland over a 68-year period (approximately 20 generations). This long-term data set allowed us to compare events that occurred only once in several decades to more frequent events. Winter harshness explained 17 and 49% of the variance in juvenile and adult survival, respectively, and the two harshest winters were associated with major population crashes caused by simultaneous low juvenile and adult survival. These two winters increased the correlation between juvenile and adult survival from 0.63 to 0.69. Overall, survival decreased non-linearly with increasing winter harshness in adults, and linearly in juveniles. In contrast, brood size was not related to the harshness of the preceding winter. Our results thus reveal complex interactions between climate and demography. The relationship between weather and survival observed during regular years is likely to underestimate the importance of climate variation for population dynamics.

Sudden weather deterioration but not brood size affects baseline corticosterone levels in nestling Alpine swifts.

While evidence is accumulating that stress-induced glucocorticoid responses help organisms to quickly adjust their physiology and behaviour to life-threatening environmental perturbations, the function and the ecological factors inducing variation in baseline glucocorticoid levels remain poorly understood. In this study we investigated the effects of brood size by experimentally manipulating the number of nestlings per brood and the effect of weather condition on baseline corticosterone levels of nestling Alpine swifts (Apus melba). We also examined the potential negative consequences of an elevation of baseline corticosterone on nestling immunity by correlating corticosterone levels with ectoparasite intensity and the antibody production towards a vaccine. Although nestlings reared in enlarged broods were in poorer condition than nestlings reared in reduced broods, they showed similar baseline corticosterone levels. In contrast, nestling baseline corticosterone levels were higher immediately after cold and rainy episodes with strong winds. Neither nestling infestation rate by ectoparastic flies nor nestling antibody production against a vaccine was correlated with baseline corticosterone levels. Thus, our results suggest that altricial Alpine swift nestlings can quickly modulate baseline corticosterone levels in response to unpredictable variations in meteorological perturbation but not to brood size which may be associated with the degree of sibling competition. Apparently, short-term elevations of baseline corticosterone have no negative effects on nestling immunocompetence.

Kernel-based mapping of orographic rainfall enhancement in the Swiss Alps as detected by weatherradar

In this paper, we develop a data-driven methodology to characterize the likelihood of orographic precipitation enhancement using sequences of weather radar images and a digital elevation model (DEM). Geographical locations with topographic characteristics favorable to enforce repeatable and persistent orographic precipitation such as stationary cells, upslope rainfall enhancement, and repeated convective initiation are detected by analyzing the spatial distribution of a set of precipitation cells extracted from radar imagery. Topographic features such as terrain convexity and gradients computed from the DEM at multiple spatial scales as well as velocity fields estimated from sequences of weather radar images are used as explanatory factors to describe the occurrence of localized precipitation enhancement. The latter is represented as a binary process by defining a threshold on the number of cell occurrences at particular locations. Both two-class and one-class support vector machine classifiers are tested to separate the presumed orographic cells from the nonorographic ones in the space of contributing topographic and flow features. Site-based validation is carried out to estimate realistic generalization skills of the obtained spatial prediction models. Due to the high class separability, the decision function of the classifiers can be interpreted as a likelihood or susceptibility of orographic precipitation enhancement. The developed approach can serve as a basis for refining radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates and short-term forecasts or for generating stochastic precipitation ensembles conditioned on the local topography.

A probabilistic approach to niche-based community models for spatial forecasts of assemblage properties and their uncertainties

Aim Conservation strategies are in need of predictions that capture spatial community composition and structure. Currently, the methods used to generate these predictions generally focus on deterministic processes and omit important stochastic processes and other unexplained variation in model outputs. Here we test a novel approach of community models that accounts for this variation and determine how well it reproduces observed properties of alpine butterfly communities. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We propose a new approach to process probabilistic predictions derived from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) in order to predict and assess the uncertainty in the predictions of community properties. We test the utility of our novel approach against a traditional threshold-based approach. We used mountain butterfly communities spanning a large elevation gradient as a case study and evaluated the ability of our approach to model species richness and phylogenetic diversity of communities. Results S-SDMs reproduced the observed decrease in phylogenetic diversity and species richness with elevation, syndromes of environmental filtering. The prediction accuracy of community properties vary along environmental gradient: variability in predictions of species richness was higher at low elevation, while it was lower for phylogenetic diversity. Our approach allowed mapping the variability in species richness and phylogenetic diversity projections. Main conclusion Using our probabilistic approach to process species distribution models outputs to reconstruct communities furnishes an improved picture of the range of possible assemblage realisations under similar environmental conditions given stochastic processes and help inform manager of the uncertainty in the modelling results

Influence of weather, rank, and home advantage on football outcomes in the gulf region.

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of weather, rank, and home advantage on international football match results and scores in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. METHODS: Football matches (n = 2008) in six GCC countries were analyzed. To determine the weather influence on the likelihood of favorable outcome and goal difference, generalized linear model with a logit link function and multiple regression analysis were performed. RESULTS: In the GCC region, home teams tend to have greater likelihood of a favorable outcome (P < 0.001) and higher goal difference (P < 0.001). Temperature difference was identified as a significant explanatory variable when used independently (P < 0.001) or after adjustment for home advantage and team ranking (P < 0.001). The likelihood of favorable outcome for GCC teams increases by 3% for every 1-unit increase in temperature difference. After inclusion of interaction with opposition, this advantage remains significant only when playing against non-GCC opponents. While home advantage increased the odds of favorable outcome (P < 0.001) and goal difference (P < 0.001) after inclusion of interaction term, the likelihood of favorable outcome for a GCC team decreased (P < 0.001) when playing against a stronger opponent. Finally, the temperature and wet bulb globe temperature approximation were found as better indicators of the effect of environmental conditions than absolute and relative humidity or heat index on match outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In GCC region, higher temperature increased the likelihood of a favorable outcome when playing against non-GCC teams. However, international ranking should be considered because an opponent with a higher rank reduced, but did not eliminate, the likelihood of a favorable outcome.

The relationship between Lamb weather types and long-term changes in flood frequency, River Eden, UK

Research has found that both flood magnitude and frequency in the UK may have increased over the last five decades. However, evaluating whether or not this is a systematic trend is difficult because of the lack of longer records. Here we compile and consider an extreme flood record that extends back to 1770. Since 1770, there have been 137 recorded extreme floods. However, over this period, there is not a unidirectional trend of rising extreme flood risk over time. Instead, there are clear flood-rich and flood-poor periods. Three main flood-rich periods were identified: 18731904, 19231933, and 1994 onwards. To provide a first analysis of what is driving these periods, and given the paucity of more sophisticated datasets that extend back to the 18th century, objective Lamb weather types were used. Of the 27 objective Lamb weather types, only 11 could be associated with the extreme floods during the gauged period, and only 5 of these accounted for > 80% of recorded extreme floods The importance of these five weather types over a longer timescale for flood risk in Carlisle was assessed, through calculating the proportion of each hydrological year classified as being associated with these flood-generating weather types. Two periods clearly had more than the average proportions of the year classified as one of the flood causing weather types; 19001940 and 19832007; and these two periods both contained flood-rich hydrological records. Thus, the analysis suggests that systematic organisation of the North Atlantic climate system may be manifest as periods of elevated and reduced flood risk, an observation that has major implications for analyses that assume that climatic drivers of flood risk can be either statistically stationary or are following a simple trend. Copyright (c) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Emerging environmental and weather challenges in outdoor sports

Given the climatic changes around the world and the growing outdoor sports participation, existing guidelines and recommendations for exercising in naturally challenging environments such as heat, cold or altitude, exhibit potential shortcomings. Continuous efforts from sport sciences and exercise physiology communities aim at minimizing the risks of environmental-related illnesses during outdoor sports practices. Despite this, the use of simple weather indices does not permit an accurate estimation of the likelihood of facing thermal illnesses. This provides a critical foundation to modify available human comfort modeling and to integrate bio-meteorological data in order to improve the current guidelines. Although it requires further refinement, there is no doubt that standardizing the recently developed Universal Thermal Climate Index approach and its application in the field of sport sciences and exercise physiology may help to improve the appropriateness of the current guidelines for outdoor, recreational and competitive sports participation. This review first summarizes the main environmental-related risk factors that are susceptible to increase with recent climate changes when exercising outside and offers recommendations to combat them appropriately. Secondly, we briefly address the recent development of thermal stress models to assess the thermal comfort and physiological responses when practicing outdoor activities in challenging environments.

Weather and cardiovascular mortality.

Already in ancient Greece, Hippocrates postulated that disease showed a seasonal pattern characterised by excess winter mortality. Since then, several studies have confirmed this finding, and it was generally accepted that the increase in winter mortality was mostly due to respiratory infections and seasonal influenza. More recently, it was shown that cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality also displayed such seasonality, and that the magnitude of the seasonal effect increased from the poles to the equator. The recent study by Yang et al assessed CVD mortality attributable to ambient temperature using daily data from 15 cities in China for years 2007-2013, including nearly two million CVD deaths. A high temperature variability between and within cities can be observed (figure 1). They used sophisticated statistical methodology to account for the complex temperature-mortality relationship; first, distributed lag non-linear models combined with quasi-Poisson regression to obtain city-specific estimates, taking into account temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure; then, a meta-analysis to obtain the pooled estimates. The results confirm the winter excess mortality as reported by the Eurowinter3 and other4 groups, but they show that the magnitude of ambient temperature.