Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

Bats of Borneo: diversity, distributions and representation in protected areas

Protected areas are valuable in conserving tropical biodiversity, but an insufficient understanding of species diversity and distributions makes it difficult to evaluate their effectiveness. This is especially true on Borneo, a species rich island shared by three countries, and is particularly concerning for bats, a poorly known component of mammal diversity that may be highly susceptible to landscape changes. We reviewed the diversity, distributions and conservation status of 54 bat species to determine the representation of these taxa in Borneo's protected areas, and whether these reserves complement each other in terms of bat diversity. Lower and upper bound estimates of bat species composition were characterised in 23 protected areas and the proposed boundaries of the Heart of Borneo conservation area. We used lower and upper bound estimates of species composition. By using actual inventories, species representation was highly irregular, and even if some reserves were included in the Heart of Borneo, the protected area network would still exhibit low complementarity. By inferring species presence from distributions, composition between most reserves was similar, and complementarity was much higher. Predicting species richness using abundance information suggested that bat species representation in reserves may lie between these two extremes. We recommend that researchers better sample biodiversity over the island and address the conservation threats faced in Borneo both within and outside protected areas. While the Heart of Borneo Initiative is commendable, it should not divert attention from other conservation areas.

Do Financial Incentives Affect Firms' Demand For Disabled Workers?

A number of OECD countries aim to encourage work integration of disabled persons using quota policies. For instance, Austrian firms must provide at least one job to a disabled worker per 25 nondisabled workers and are subject to a tax if they do not. This "threshold design" provides causal estimates of the noncompliance tax on disabled employment if firms do not manipulate nondisabled employment; a lower and upper bound on the causal effect can be constructed if they do. Results indicate that firms with 25 nondisabled workers employ about 0.04 (or 12%) more disabled workers than without the tax; firms do manipulate employment of nondisabled workers but the lower bound on the employment effect of the quota remains positive; employment effects are stronger in low-wage firms than in high-wage firms; and firms subject to the quota of two disabled workers or more hire 0.08 more disabled workers per additional quota job. Moreover, increasing the noncompliance tax increases excess disabled employment, whereas paying a bonus to overcomplying firms slightly dampens the employment effects of the tax.

MRI-based assessment of the pineal gland in a large population of children aged 0-5 years and comparison with pineoblastoma: part I, the solid gland.

INTRODUCTION: Differentiation between normal solid (non-cystic) pineal glands and pineal pathologies on brain MRI is difficult. The aim of this study was to assess the size of the solid pineal gland in children (0-5 years) and compare the findings with published pineoblastoma cases. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the size (width, height, planimetric area) of solid pineal glands in 184 non-retinoblastoma patients (73 female, 111 male) aged 0-5 years on MRI. The effect of age and gender on gland size was evaluated. Linear regression analysis was performed to analyze the relation between size and age. Ninety-nine percent prediction intervals around the mean were added to construct a normal size range per age, with the upper bound of the predictive interval as the parameter of interest as a cutoff for normalcy. RESULTS: There was no significant interaction of gender and age for all the three pineal gland parameters (width, height, and area). Linear regression analysis gave 99 % upper prediction bounds of 7.9, 4.8, and 25.4 mm(2), respectively, for width, height, and area. The slopes (size increase per month) of each parameter were 0.046, 0.023, and 0.202, respectively. Ninety-three percent (95 % CI 66-100 %) of asymptomatic solid pineoblastomas were larger in size than the 99 % upper bound. CONCLUSION: This study establishes norms for solid pineal gland size in non-retinoblastoma children aged 0-5 years. Knowledge of the size of the normal pineal gland is helpful for detection of pineal gland abnormalities, particularly pineoblastoma.

GroEL and CCT are catalytic unfoldases mediating out-of-cage polypeptide refolding without ATP.

Chaperonins are cage-like complexes in which nonnative polypeptides prone to aggregation are thought to reach their native state optimally. However, they also may use ATP to unfold stably bound misfolded polypeptides and mediate the out-of-cage native refolding of large proteins. Here, we show that even without ATP and GroES, both GroEL and the eukaryotic chaperonin containing t-complex polypeptide 1 (CCT/TRiC) can unfold stable misfolded polypeptide conformers and readily release them from the access ways to the cage. Reconciling earlier disparate experimental observations to ours, we present a comprehensive model whereby following unfolding on the upper cavity, in-cage confinement is not needed for the released intermediates to slowly reach their native state in solution. As over-sticky intermediates occasionally stall the catalytic unfoldase sites, GroES mobile loops and ATP are necessary to dissociate the inhibitory species and regenerate the unfolding activity. Thus, chaperonin rings are not obligate confining antiaggregation cages. They are polypeptide unfoldases that can iteratively convert stable off-pathway conformers into functional proteins.

The Bacillus subtilis bacteriophage SPP1 G39P delivers and activates the G40P DNA helicase upon interacting with the G38P-bound replication origin.

Initiation of Bacillus subtilis bacteriophage SPP1 replication requires the phage-encoded genes 38, 39 and 40 products (G38P, G39P and G40P). G39P, which does not bind DNA, interacts with the replisome organiser, G38P, in the absence of ATP and with the ATP-activated hexameric replication fork helicase, G40P. G38P, which specifically interacts with the phage replication origin (oriL) DNA, does not seem to form a stable complex with G40P in solution. G39P when complexed with G40P-ATP inactivates the single-stranded DNA binding, ATPase and unwinding activities of G40P, and such effects are reversed by increasing amounts of G38P. Unwinding of a forked substrate by G40P-ATP is increased about tenfold by the addition of G38P and G39P to the reaction mixture. The specific protein-protein interactions between oriL-bound G38P and the G39P-G40P-ATPgammaS complex are necessary for helicase delivery to the SPP1 replication origin. Formation of G38P-G39P heterodimers releases G40P-ATPgammaS from the unstable oriL-G38P-G39P-G40P-ATPgammaS intermediate. G40P-ATPgammaS binds to the origin region, the uncomplexed G38P fraction remains bound to oriL, and the G38P-G39P heterodimer is lost from the complex. We demonstrate that G39P is a component of an oligomeric nucleoprotein complex which plays an important role in the initiation of SPP1 replication.

Use of the Flixene vascular access graft as an early cannulation solution.

OBJECTIVE: The primary end points of this study were safety and efficacy of early cannulation of the Flixene graft (Maquet-Atrium Medical, Hudson, NH). Secondary end points were complications and patency. METHODS: This is a prospective single-center nonrandomized study. Study data included patient characteristics; history of vascular access; operative technique; interval between implantation and initial cannulation; complications; and patency at 1 month, 3 months, and every 6 months. Patency rates were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: Between January 2011 and September 2013, a total of 46 Flixene grafts were implanted in 44 patients (27 men) with a mean age of 63 years. The implantation site was the upper arm in 67% of cases, the forearm in 11%, and the thigh in 22%. Seven grafts were never cannulated during the study period. Of the remaining 39 grafts, 32 (82%) were successfully cannulated within the first week after implantation, including 16 (41%) on the first day. The median interval from implantation to initial cannulation was 2 days (interquartile range, 1-3 days). The median follow-up was 223.5 days (interquartile range, 97-600 days). Five hematomas occurred, but only one required surgical revision. Primary assisted and secondary patency rates were 65% and 86%, respectively, at 6 months and 56% and 86%, respectively, at 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that cannulation of the Flixene graft within 1 week after implantation is safe and effective. Early cannulation avoids or shortens the need for a temporary catheter. One-year patency rates appeared to be comparable to those achieved with conventional grafts, but long-term follow-up and randomized controlled studies will be needed to confirm this finding.