Estimating uncertainty of alcohol-attributable fractions for infectious and chronic diseases.

Background: Alcohol is a major risk factor for burden of disease and injuries globally. This paper presents a systematic method to compute the 95% confidence intervals of alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) with exposure and risk relations stemming from different sources.Methods: The computation was based on previous work done on modelling drinking prevalence using the gamma distribution and the inherent properties of this distribution. The Monte Carlo approach was applied to derive the variance for each AAF by generating random sets of all the parameters. A large number of random samples were thus created for each AAF to estimate variances. The derivation of the distributions of the different parameters is presented as well as sensitivity analyses which give an estimation of the number of samples required to determine the variance with predetermined precision, and to determine which parameter had the most impact on the variance of the AAFs.Results: The analysis of the five Asian regions showed that 150 000 samples gave a sufficiently accurate estimation of the 95% confidence intervals for each disease. The relative risk functions accounted for most of the variance in the majority of cases.Conclusions: Within reasonable computation time, the method yielded very accurate values for variances of AAFs.

Molecular and isotopic characterization of organic samples from the wreck of the Saint-Etienne merchant ship (XVIIIth century): Identification of pitch, fat, hair and sulfur

The wreck U Pezzo, excavated within the Saint Florent Gulf in northern Corsica was identified as the pink, Saint Etienne, a merchant ship which sank on January 31, 1769. In order to determine the composition of organic materials used to coat the hull or to waterproof different parts of the pink, a study of several samples, using molecular biomarker and carbon isotopic analysis, was initiated. The results revealed that the remarkable yellow coat, covering the outside planks of the ship's bottom under the water line, is composed of sulfur, tallow (of ox and not of cetacean origin) and black pitch which corresponds to a mixture called ``couroi'' or ``stuff'. Onboard ropes had been submitted to a tarring treatment with pitch. Hairs mixed with pitch were identified in samples collected between the two layers of the hull or under the sheathing planking. The study also provides a key model for weathering of pitch, as different degrees of degradation were found between the surface and the heart of several samples. Accordingly, molecular parameters for alteration were proposed. Furthermore novel mixed esters between terpenic and diterpenic alcohols and the free major fatty acids (C(14:0), C(16:0), C(18:0)) were detected in the yellow coat. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope variation of water stored in polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles

A set of bottled waters from a single natural spring distributed worldwide in polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles has been used to examine the effects of storage in plastic polymer material on the isotopic composition (delta(18)O and delta(2)H values) of the water. All samples analyzed were subjected to the same packaging procedure but experienced different conditions of temperature and humidity during storage. Water sorption and the diffusive transfer of water and water vapor through the wall of the PET bottle may cause isotopic exchange between water within the bottle and water vapor in air near the PET-water interface. Changes of about +4 parts per thousand for delta(2)H and +0.7 parts per thousand for delta(18)O have been measured for water after 253 days of storage within the PET bottle. The results of this study clearly indicate the need to use glass bottles for storing water samples for isotopic studies. It is imperative to transfer PET-bottled natural waters to glass bottles for their use as calibration material or potential international working standards. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.