Italy's Path to Very Low Fertility : The Adequacy of Economic and Second Demographic Transition Theories

The deep drop of the fertility rate in Italy to among the lowest in the world challenges contemporary theories of childbearing and family building. Among high-income countries, Italy was presumed to have characteristics of family values and female labor force participation that would favor higher fertility than its European neighbors to the north. We test competing economic and cultural explanations, drawing on new nationally representative, longitudinal data to examine first union, first birth, and second birth. Our event history analysis finds some support for economic determinants of family formation and fertility, but the clear importance of regional differences and of secularization suggests that such an explanation is at best incomplete and that cultural and ideational factors must be considered.

Fraser syndrome: epidemiological study in a European population.

Fraser syndrome is a rare autosomal recessive disorder characterized by cryptophthalmos, cutaneous syndactyly, laryngeal, and urogenital malformations. We present a population-based epidemiological study using data provided by the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) network of birth defect registries. Between January 1990 and December 2008, we identified 26 cases of Fraser syndrome in the monitored population of 12,886,464 births (minimal estimated prevalence of 0.20 per 100,000 or 1:495,633 births). Most cases (18/26; 69%) were registered in the western part of Europe, where the mean prevalence is 1 in 230,695 births, compared to the prevalence 1 in 1,091,175 for the rest of Europe (P = 0.0003). Consanguinity was present in 7/26 (27%) families. Ten (38%) cases were liveborn, 14 (54%) pregnancies were terminated following prenatal detection of a serious anomaly, and 2 (8%) were stillborn. Eye anomalies were found in 20/24 (83%), syndactyly in 14/24 (58%), and laryngeal anomalies in 5/24 (21%) patients. Ambiguous genitalia were observed in 3/24 (13%) cases. Bilateral renal agenesis was present in 12/24 (50%) and unilateral in 4/24 (17%) cases. The frequency of anorectal anomalies was particularly high (42%). Most cases of Fraser syndrome (85%) are suspected prenatally, often due to the presence of the association of renal agenesis and cryptophthalmos. In the European population, a high proportion (82%) of pregnancies is terminated, thus reducing the live birth prevalence to a third of the total prevalence rate.

Little ice age advance and retreat sediment budgets for an outlet glacier in western Norway

Bødalsbreen is an outlet glacier of the Jostedalsbreen Ice Field in western Norway. Nine moraine ridges formed during and after the maximum extent of the Little Ice Age (LIA). The stratigraphy of proglacial sediments in the Bødalen basin inside the LIA moraines is examined, and corresponding sediment volumes are calculated based on georadar surveys and seismic profiling. The total erosion rates (etot) by the glacier are determined for the periods AD 1650?1930 and AD 1930?2005 as 0.8 ± 0.4 mm/yr and 0.7 ± 0.3 mm/yr, respectively. These rates are based on the total amount of sediment delivered to the glacier margin. The values are almost one order of magnitude higher than total erosion rates previously calculated for Norwegian glaciers. This is explained by the large amount of pre-existing sediment that was recycled by Bødalsbreen. Thus, the total erosion rate must be considered as a composite of eroded bedrock and of removed pre-existing sediments. The total erosion rate is likely to vary with time owing to a decreasing volume of easily erodible, unconsolidated sediment and till under the glacier. A slight increase in the subglacial bedrock erosion is expected owing to the gradually increasing bedrock surface area exposed to subglacial erosion.

Outcome following percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty performed before 1990.

The goal of this follow-up study was to assess the long-term survival of all patients having undergone a first PTCA between 1981 and 1990 and to relate the outcome to the baseline clinical and angiographic state. Although PTCA has become a widely accepted therapeutic choice for revascularization, the authors lacked information on long-term outcome. Data was collected by questionnaire, the end points being a second PTCA, MI, CABG, death or any of these events. The survival curves were constructed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate analysis was performed by a Cox proportional hazards model. Complete follow-up data were collected for 1,071 patients for a mean period of 7.4 years (SEM +/- 1.98 months) with a range of 0 to 14 years. Mean age was 57 years. PTCA was successful in 85% of patients. In-hospital event rates were death 1.3%, MI 4.4%, and emergency CABG 2.9%. Overall survival at 14 years was 69% (SEM +/- 9.6%) and event-free survival was 47% (SEM +/- 5.8%). MI rate was 11%, CABG 15%, and 20% of patients underwent repeat PTCA. Presence of cardiovascular risk factors, poor left ventricular ejection fraction, and prior CABG were significantly associated with poorer event-free survival. The short-term observations are consistent with results reported by the other follow-up studies. In addition, the study found a total survival rate 14 years after a first PTCA of 69% and 47% of the cohort remained event free.

Demographic and behavioral factors associated with adolescent pregnancy in Switzerland.

Switzerland has the lowest adolescent fertility rate in Western Europe. According to data collected in 1993 as part of the Swiss Multicentre Adolescent Survey on Health, 5% of 1,726 sexually active adolescents in a group of 3,993 15-20-year-old women enrolled in academic or vocational classes had ever been pregnant; most of these women (80%) had terminated their pregnancy. Adolescents who had ever been pregnant did not differ significantly from those who had not by demographic characteristics. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified seven factors associated with pregnancy: having had four or more sexual partners; not having used contraceptives at first intercourse; ever use of less-effective contraceptive methods; having used illicit drugs during the last 30 days; living apart from one's parents; recently experiencing stress; and perceiving a lack of future prospects.

Investigating barriers in HIV-testing oncology patients. The IBITOP study: phase I.

BACKGROUND: Since the advent of combined antiretroviral therapy (ART), the incidence of non-AIDS-defining cancers (non-ADCs) among HIV-positive patients is rising. We previously described HIV testing rates of <5% in our oncology centre, against a local HIV prevalence of 0.4% (1). We have since worked with the Service of Oncology to identify, how HIV testing can be optimized, we have conducted a study on investigating barriers in HIV-testing oncology patients (IBITOP) among treating oncologists and their patients. METHODS: After an initial two-month pilot study to examine feasibility (2), we conducted the first phase of the IBITOP study between 1st July and 31st October 2013. Patients of unknown HIV status, newly diagnosed with solid-organ non-AIDS-defining cancer, and treated at Lausanne University Hospital were invited to participate. Patients were offered HIV testing as a part of their initial oncology work-up. Oncologist testing proposals and patient acceptance were the primary endpoints. RESULTS: Of 235 patients with a new oncology diagnosis, 10 were excluded (7 with ADCs and 3 of known HIV-positive status). Mean age was 62 years; 48% were men and 71% were Swiss. Of 225 patients, 75 (33%) were offered HIV testing. Of these, 56 (75%) accepted, of whom 52 (93%) were tested. A further ten patients were tested (without documentation of being offered a test), which gave a total testing rate of 28% (62/225). Among the 19 patients who declined testing, reasons cited included self-perceived absence of HIV risk, previous testing and palliative care. Of the 140 patients not offered HIV testing and not tested, reasons were documented for 35 (25%), the most common being previous testing and follow-up elsewhere. None of the 62 patients HIV tested had a reactive test. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, one third of patients seen were offered testing and the HIV testing rate was fivefold higher than that of previously observed in this service. Most patients accepted testing when offered. As HIV-positive status impacts on the medical management of cancer patients, we recommend that HIV screening should be performed in settings, where HIV prevalence is >0.1%. Phase II of the IBITOP study is now underway to explore barriers to HIV screening among oncologists and patients following the updated national HIV testing guidelines which recommend testing in non-ADC patients undergoing chemotherapy.

Chirurgie endoscopique endonasale des tumeurs de la base du crane : historique, état de l'art et perspectives d'avenir [Shifting paradigm in skull base surgery: Roots, current state of the art and future trends of endonasal endoscopic approaches].

During the last two decades, endoscopic endonasal approach has completed the minimally invasive skull base surgery armamentarium. Endoscopic endonasal skull base surgery (EESBS) was initially developed in the field of pituitary adenomas, and gained an increasing place for the treatment of a wide variety of skull base pathologies, extending on the midline from crista galli process to the occipitocervical junction and laterally to the parasellar areas and petroclival apex. Until now, most studies are retrospective and lack sufficient methodological quality to confirm whether the endoscopic endonasal pituitary surgery has better results than the microsurgical trans-sphenoidal classical approach. The impressions of the expert teams show a trend toward better results for some pituitary adenomas with the endoscopic endonasal route, in terms of gross total resection rate and probably more comfortable postoperative course for the patient. Excepting intra- and suprasellar pituitary adenomas, EESBS seems useful for selected lesions extending onto the cavernous sinus and Meckel's cave but also for clival pathologies. Nevertheless, this infatuation toward endoscopic endonasal approaches has to be balanced with the critical issue of cerebrospinal fluid leaks, which constitutes actually the main limit of this approach. Through their experience and a review of the literature, the authors aim to present the state of the art of this approach as well as its limits.

Meckel-Gruber Syndrome: a population-based study on prevalence, prenatal diagnosis, clinical features, and survival in Europe.

Meckel-Gruber Syndrome is a rare autosomal recessive lethal ciliopathy characterized by the triad of cystic renal dysplasia, occipital encephalocele and postaxial polydactyly. We present the largest population-based epidemiological study to date using data provided by the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) network. The study population consisted of 191 cases of MKS identified between January 1990 and December 2011 in 34 European registries. The mean prevalence was 2.6 per 100 000 births in a subset of registries with good ascertainment. The prevalence was stable over time, but regional differences were observed. There were 145 (75.9%) terminations of pregnancy after prenatal diagnosis, 13 (6.8%) fetal deaths, 33 (17.3%) live births. In addition to cystic kidneys (97.7%), encephalocele (83.8%) and polydactyly (87.3%), frequent features include other central nervous system anomalies (51.4%), fibrotic/cystic changes of the liver (65.5% of cases with post mortem examination) and orofacial clefts (31.8%). Various other anomalies were present in 64 (37%) patients. As nowadays most patients are detected very early in pregnancy when liver or kidney changes may not yet be developed or may be difficult to assess, none of the anomalies should be considered obligatory for the diagnosis. Most cases (90.2%) are diagnosed prenatally at 14.3±2.6 (range 11-36) gestational weeks and pregnancies are mainly terminated, reducing the number of LB to one-fifth of the total prevalence rate. Early diagnosis is important for timely counseling of affected couples regarding the option of pregnancy termination and prenatal genetic testing in future pregnancies.

Total exposure and exposure rate effects for alcohol and smoking and risk of head and neck cancer: a pooled analysis of case-control studies.

Although cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption increase risk for head and neck cancers, there have been few attempts to model risks quantitatively and to formally evaluate cancer site-specific risks. The authors pooled data from 15 case-control studies and modeled the excess odds ratio (EOR) to assess risk by total exposure (pack-years and drink-years) and its modification by exposure rate (cigarettes/day and drinks/day). The smoking analysis included 1,761 laryngeal, 2,453 pharyngeal, and 1,990 oral cavity cancers, and the alcohol analysis included 2,551 laryngeal, 3,693 pharyngeal, and 3,116 oval cavity cancers, with over 8,000 controls. Above 15 cigarettes/day, the EOR/pack-year decreased with increasing cigarettes/day, suggesting that greater cigarettes/day for a shorter duration was less deleterious than fewer cigarettes/day for a longer duration. Estimates of EOR/pack-year were homogeneous across sites, while the effects of cigarettes/day varied, indicating that the greater laryngeal cancer risk derived from differential cigarettes/day effects and not pack-years. EOR/drink-year estimates increased through 10 drinks/day, suggesting that greater drinks/day for a shorter duration was more deleterious than fewer drinks/day for a longer duration. Above 10 drinks/day, data were limited. EOR/drink-year estimates varied by site, while drinks/day effects were homogeneous, indicating that the greater pharyngeal/oral cavity cancer risk with alcohol consumption derived from the differential effects of drink-years and not drinks/day.

Objective analysis of gait coordination for total knee arthroplasty outcome

Introduction: Coordination is a strategy chosen by the central nervous system to control the movements and maintain stability during gait. Coordinated multi-joint movements require a complex interaction between nervous outputs, biomechanical constraints, and pro-prioception. Quantitatively understanding and modeling gait coordination still remain a challenge. Surgeons lack a way to model and appreciate the coordination of patients before and after surgery of the lower limbs. Patients alter their gait patterns and their kinematic synergies when they walk faster or slower than normal speed to maintain their stability and minimize the energy cost of locomotion. The goal of this study was to provide a dynamical system approach to quantitatively describe human gait coordination and apply it to patients before and after total knee arthroplasty. Methods: A new method of quantitative analysis of interjoint coordination during gait was designed, providing a general model to capture the whole dynamics and showing the kinematic synergies at various walking speeds. The proposed model imposed a relationship among lower limb joint angles (hips and knees) to parameterize the dynamics of locomotion of each individual. An integration of different analysis tools such as Harmonic analysis, Principal Component Analysis, and Artificial Neural Network helped overcome high-dimensionality, temporal dependence, and non-linear relationships of the gait patterns. Ten patients were studied using an ambulatory gait device (Physilog®). Each participant was asked to perform two walking trials of 30m long at 3 different speeds and to complete an EQ-5D questionnaire, a WOMAC and Knee Society Score. Lower limbs rotations were measured by four miniature angular rate sensors mounted respectively, on each shank and thigh. The outcomes of the eight patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty, recorded pre-operatively and post-operatively at 6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months and 1 year were compared to 2 age-matched healthy subjects. Results: The new method provided coordination scores at various walking speeds, ranged between 0 and 10. It determined the overall coordination of the lower limbs as well as the contribution of each joint to the total coordination. The difference between the pre-operative and post-operative coordination values were correlated with the improvements of the subjective outcome scores. Although the study group was small, the results showed a new way to objectively quantify gait coordination of patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty, using only portable body-fixed sensors. Conclusion: A new method for objective gait coordination analysis has been developed with very encouraging results regarding the objective outcome of lower limb surgery.

Pregnancy-related changes in activity energy expenditure and resting metabolic rate in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: To measure resting metabolic rate (RMR), activity energy expenditure (AEE), total energy expenditure (TEE) and physical activity pattern, that is, duration and intensity (in metabolic equivalents, METs) of activities performed in late pregnancy compared with postpartum in healthy, well-nourished women living in Switzerland. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Weight, height, RMR, AEE, TEE and physical activity patterns were measured longitudinally in 27 healthy women aged 23-40 years at 38.2+/-1.5 weeks of gestation and 40.0+/-7.2 weeks postpartum. RESULTS: The RMR during late pregnancy was 7480 kJ per day, that is, 1320+/-760 kJ per day (21.4%) higher than the postpartum RMR (P<0.001). Absolute changes in RMR were positively correlated with the corresponding changes in body weight (r=0.61, P<0.001). RMR per kg body weight was similar in late pregnancy vs postpartum (P=0.28). AEE per kg during pregnancy and postpartum was 40+/-13 and 50+/-20 kJ/kg, respectively (P=0.001). There were significant differences in daily time spent at METs<1.5 (1067 vs 998 min, P=0.045), at 2.5< or =METs <3.0 (58 vs 82 min, P=0.002) and METs> or =6 (1 vs 6 min, P=0.014) during pregnancy and postpartum, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Energy expenditure in healthy women living in Switzerland increases in pregnancy compared with the postpartum state. Additional energy expenditure is primarily attributed to an increase in RMR, which is partly compensated by a decrease in AEE. The decrease in physical activity-related energy costs is achieved by selecting less demanding activities and should be taken into account when defining extra energy requirements for late pregnancy in Switzerland.

The difference between the basal metabolic rate and the sleeping metabolic rate in Japanese.

Previous studies have demonstrated the difference between the basal metabolic rate (BMR) and the sleeping metabolic rate (SMR): however, the difference in the Japanese population has not yet been explored. This study examined the relationship between the BMR and SMR in ninety-four healthy Japanese subjects (37 males and 57 females, 39 +/- 12 y of age and 22.0 +/- 7.4% body fat) in a respiratory chamber. The SMR was significantly lower than the BMR (1416 +/- 245 vs. 1492 +/- 256 kcal/d): however, there was a highly significant correlation between the two (r = 0.867; p < 0.001). The ratio of SMR/BMR largely varied among individuals (0.95 +/-0.08, 8.4% of the coefficient of variation). The ratio was significantly lower in males than in females (0.93 +/- 0.10 vs. 0.97 +/- 0.06, p < 0.05). None of the anthropometric measures (age, weight, body mass index, body surface area or percent body fat) correlated with the ratio. These results showed that SMR was 95%, of BMR on average in a healthy Japanese group. However, when applied over a longer time period (24 h or more), the difference tends to become negligible for most analyses in a group. Although the difference between SMR and BMR will induce a 5% gap of physical activity level defined as the total energy expenditure divided by the BMR or SMR, this factor seems to have little practical importance in epidemiological research.

Assessment of adult formulas for glomerular filtration rate estimation in children.

BACKGROUND: Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is an important diagnostic instrument in clinical practice. The National Kidney Foundation-Kidney Disease Quality Initiative (NKF-KDOQI) guidelines do not recommend using formulas developed for adults to estimate GFR in children; however, studies confirming these recommendations are scarce. The aim of our study was to evaluate the accuracy of the new Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) formula, the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula, and the Cockcroft-Gault formula in children with various stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD). METHODS: A total of 550 inulin clearance (iGFR) measurements for 391 children were analyzed. The cohort was divided into three groups: group 1, with iGFR >90 ml/min/1.73 m(2); group 2, with iGFR between 60 and 90 ml/min/1.73 m(2); group 3, with iGFR of <60 ml/min/1.73 m(2). RESULTS: All formulas overestimate iGFR with a significant bias (p < 0.001), present poor accuracies, and have poor Spearman correlations. For an accuracy of 10 %, only 11, 6, and 27 % of the eGFRs are accurate when using the MDRD, CKD-EPI, and Cockcroft-Gault formulas, respectively. For an accuracy of 30 %, these formulas do not reach the NKF-KDOQI guidelines for validation, with only 25, 20, and 70 % of the eGFRs, respectively, being accurate. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our results, the performances of all of these formulas are unreliable for eGFR in children across all CKD stages and cannot therefore be applied in the pediatric population group.

Assessment of total energy expenditure in free-living patients with cystic fibrosis.

The increase in resting energy expenditure (REE) reported in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) does not necessarily imply an increase in total energy expenditure (TEE). In this study REE was assessed with open-circuit indirect calorimetry, and free-living 24-hour TEE with the heart rate method. Thirteen patients with CF, aged 8 to 24 years, with adequate nutritional status and moderately decreased pulmonary function, were studied. They were compared with 13 healthy control subjects matched for gender, age, height, and nutritional status. Resting energy expenditure was higher in patients with CF (1512 +/- 88 kcal/day) than in control subjects (1339 +/- 76 kcal/day; p less than 0.01), whereas free-living 24-hour TEE (2345 +/- 127 kcal/day and 2358 +/- 256 kcal/day, respectively) and net mechanical work efficiency of walking on a treadmill (20.4 +/- 0.7% and 19.8 +/- 0.6%, respectively) were similar. Respiratory quotient was higher in patients with CF than in control subjects at rest (0.834 +/- 0.009 vs 0.797 +/- 0.008; p less than 0.05), and tended to remain so during physical exercise, indicating a higher contribution of carbohydrate oxidation to energy expenditure. We conclude that in free living conditions, patients with CF can compensate for their increase in REE by a reduction in spontaneous physical activities or other yet undefined mechanisms.