Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Dpp spreading is required for medial but not for lateral wing disc growth.

Drosophila Decapentaplegic (Dpp) has served as a paradigm to study morphogen-dependent growth control. However, the role of a Dpp gradient in tissue growth remains highly controversial. Two fundamentally different models have been proposed: the 'temporal rule' model suggests that all cells of the wing imaginal disc divide upon a 50% increase in Dpp signalling, whereas the 'growth equalization model' suggests that Dpp is only essential for proliferation control of the central cells. Here, to discriminate between these two models, we generated and used morphotrap, a membrane-tethered anti-green fluorescent protein (GFP) nanobody, which enables immobilization of enhanced (e)GFP::Dpp on the cell surface, thereby abolishing Dpp gradient formation. We find that in the absence of Dpp spreading, wing disc patterning is lost; however, lateral cells still divide at normal rates. These data are consistent with the growth equalization model, but do not fit a global temporal rule model in the wing imaginal disc.

Temporal changes in mRNA expression of the brain nutrient transporters in the lithium-pilocarpine model of epilepsy in the immature and adult rat.

The lithium-pilocarpine model mimics most features of human temporal lobe epilepsy. Following our prior studies of cerebral metabolic changes, here we explored the expression of transporters for glucose (GLUT1 and GLUT3) and monocarboxylates (MCT1 and MCT2) during and after status epilepticus (SE) induced by lithium-pilocarpine in PN10, PN21, and adult rats. In situ hybridization was used to study the expression of transporter mRNAs during the acute phase (1, 4, 12 and 24h of SE), the latent phase, and the early and late chronic phases. During SE, GLUT1 expression was increased throughout the brain between 1 and 12h of SE, more strongly in adult rats; GLUT3 increased only transiently, at 1 and 4h of SE and mainly in PN10 rats; MCT1 was increased at all ages but 5-10-fold more in adult than in immature rats; MCT2 expression increased mainly in adult rats. At all ages, MCT1 and MCT2 up-regulation was limited to the circuit of seizures while GLUT1 and GLUT3 changes were more widespread. During the latent and chronic phases, the expression of nutrient transporters was normal in PN10 rats. In PN21 rats, GLUT1 was up-regulated in all brain regions. In contrast, in adult rats GLUT1 expression was down-regulated in the piriform cortex, hilus and CA1 as a result of extensive neuronal death. The changes in nutrient transporter expression reported here further support previous findings in other experimental models demonstrating rapid transcriptional responses to marked changes in cerebral energetic/glucose demand.

A multi-temporal approach to model endangered species distribution in Europe: the case of the Eurasian otter in Italy

We analysed the relationship between changes in land cover patterns and the Eurasian otter occurrence over the course of about 20 years (1985-2006) using multi-temporal Species Distribution Models (SDMs). The study area includes five river catchments covering most of the otter's Italian range. Land cover and topographic data were used as proxies of the ecological requirements of the otter within a 300-m buffer around river courses. We used species presence, pseudo-absence data, and environmental predictors to build past (1985) and current (2006) SDMs by applying an ensemble procedure through the BIOMOD modelling package. The performance of each model was evaluated by measuring the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC). Multi-temporal analyses of species distribution and land cover maps were performed by comparing the maps produced for 1985 and 2006. The ensemble procedure provided a good overall modelling accuracy, revealing that elevation and slope affected the otter's distribution in the past; in contrast, land cover predictors, such as cultivations and forests, were more important in the present period. During the transition period, 20.5% of the area became suitable, with 76% of the new otter presence data being located in these newly available areas. The multi-temporal analysis suggested that the quality of otter habitat improved in the last 20 years owing to the expansion of forests and to the reduction of cultivated fields in riparian belts. The evidence presented here stresses the great potential of riverine habitat restoration and environmental management for the future expansion of the otter in Italy

Impact of model complexity on cross-temporal transferability in Maxent species distribution models: An assessment using paleobotanical data

Maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) is a widely used algorithm for predicting species distributions across space and time. Properly assessing the uncertainty in such predictions is non-trivial and requires validation with independent datasets. Notably, model complexity (number of model parameters) remains a major concern in relation to overfitting and, hence, transferability of Maxent models. An emerging approach is to validate the cross-temporal transferability of model predictions using paleoecological data. In this study, we assess the effect of model complexity on the performance of Maxent projections across time using two European plant species (Alnus giutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Corylus avellana L) with an extensive late Quaternary fossil record in Spain as a study case. We fit 110 models with different levels of complexity under present time and tested model performance using AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and AlCc (corrected Akaike Information Criterion) through the standard procedure of randomly partitioning current occurrence data. We then compared these results to an independent validation by projecting the models to mid-Holocene (6000 years before present) climatic conditions in Spain to assess their ability to predict fossil pollen presence-absence and abundance. We find that calibrating Maxent models with default settings result in the generation of overly complex models. While model performance increased with model complexity when predicting current distributions, it was higher with intermediate complexity when predicting mid-Holocene distributions. Hence, models of intermediate complexity resulted in the best trade-off to predict species distributions across time. Reliable temporal model transferability is especially relevant for forecasting species distributions under future climate change. Consequently, species-specific model tuning should be used to find the best modeling settings to control for complexity, notably with paleoecological data to independently validate model projections. For cross-temporal projections of species distributions for which paleoecological data is not available, models of intermediate complexity should be selected.

A general model to predict individual exposure to solar UV by using ambient irradiance data

Excessive exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) is the main cause of skin cancer. Specific prevention should be further developed to target overexposed or highly vulnerable populations. A better characterisation of anatomical UV exposure patterns is however needed for specific prevention. To develop a regression model for predicting the UV exposure ratio (ER, ratio between the anatomical dose and the corresponding ground level dose) for each body site without requiring individual measurements. A 3D numeric model (SimUVEx) was used to compute ER for various body sites and postures. A multiple fractional polynomial regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of ER. The regression model used simulation data and its performance was tested on an independent data set. Two input variables were sufficient to explain ER: the cosine of the maximal daily solar zenith angle and the fraction of the sky visible from the body site. The regression model was in good agreement with the simulated data ER (R(2)=0.988). Relative errors up to +20% and -10% were found in daily doses predictions, whereas an average relative error of only 2.4% (-0.03% to 5.4%) was found in yearly dose predictions. The regression model predicts accurately ER and UV doses on the basis of readily available data such as global UV erythemal irradiance measured at ground surface stations or inferred from satellite information. It renders the development of exposure data on a wide temporal and geographical scale possible and opens broad perspectives for epidemiological studies and skin cancer prevention.

Reduced fronto-temporal and limbic connectivity in the 22q11.2 deletion syndrome: vulnerability markers for developing schizophrenia?

The 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11DS) is a widely recognized genetic model allowing the study of neuroanatomical biomarkers that underlie the risk for developing schizophrenia. Recent advances in magnetic resonance image analyses enable the examination of structural connectivity integrity, scarcely used in the 22q11DS field. This framework potentially provides evidence for the disconnectivity hypothesis of schizophrenia in this high-risk population. In the present study, we quantify the whole brain white matter connections in 22q11DS using deterministic tractography. Diffusion Tensor Imaging was acquired in 30 affected patients and 30 age- and gender-matched healthy participants. The Human Connectome technique was applied to register white matter streamlines with cortical anatomy. The number of fibers (streamlines) was used as a measure of connectivity for comparison between groups at the global, lobar and regional level. All statistics were corrected for age and gender. Results showed a 10% reduction of the total number of fibers in patients compared to controls. After correcting for this global reduction, preserved connectivity was found within the right frontal and right parietal lobes. The relative increase in the number of fibers was located mainly in the right hemisphere. Conversely, an excessive reduction of connectivity was observed within and between limbic structures. Finally, a disproportionate reduction was shown at the level of fibers connecting the left fronto-temporal regions. We could therefore speculate that the observed disruption to fronto-temporal connectivity in individuals at risk of schizophrenia implies that fronto-temporal disconnectivity, frequently implicated in the pathogenesis of schizophrenia, could precede the onset of symptoms and, as such, constitutes a biomarker of the vulnerability to develop psychosis. On the contrary, connectivity alterations in the limbic lobe play a role in a wide range of psychiatric disorders and therefore seem to be less specific in defining schizophrenia.

A two-compartment mathematical model of neuroglial metabolism using [1-(11)C] acetate.

The purpose of this study was to develop a two-compartment metabolic model of brain metabolism to assess oxidative metabolism from [1-(11)C] acetate radiotracer experiments, using an approach previously applied in (13)C magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS), and compared with an one-tissue compartment model previously used in brain [1-(11)C] acetate studies. Compared with (13)C MRS studies, (11)C radiotracer measurements provide a single uptake curve representing the sum of all labeled metabolites, without chemical differentiation, but with higher temporal resolution. The reliability of the adjusted metabolic fluxes was analyzed with Monte-Carlo simulations using synthetic (11)C uptake curves, based on a typical arterial input function and previously published values of the neuroglial fluxes V(tca)(g), V(x), V(nt), and V(tca)(n) measured in dynamic (13)C MRS experiments. Assuming V(x)(g)=10 × V(tca)(g) and V(x)(n)=V(tca)(n), it was possible to assess the composite glial tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle flux V(gt)(g) (V(gt)(g)=V(x)(g) × V(tca)(g)/(V(x)(g)+V(tca)(g))) and the neurotransmission flux V(nt) from (11)C tissue-activity curves obtained within 30 minutes in the rat cortex with a beta-probe after a bolus infusion of [1-(11)C] acetate (n=9), resulting in V(gt)(g)=0.136±0.042 and V(nt)=0.170±0.103 μmol/g per minute (mean±s.d. of the group), in good agreement with (13)C MRS measurements.

Arrhythmogenesis in the developing heart during anoxia-reoxygenation and hypothermia-rewarming: an in vitro model.

INTRODUCTION: The spatio-temporal pattern of arrhythmias in the embryonic/fetal heart subjected to a transient hypoxic or hypothermic stress remains to be established. METHODS AND RESULTS: Spontaneously beating hearts or isolated atria, ventricles, and conotruncus from 4-day-old chick embryos were subjected in vitro to 30-minute anoxia and 60-minute reoxygenation. Hearts were also submitted to 30-minute hypothermia (0-4 degrees C) and 60-minute rewarming. ECG disturbances and alterations of atrial and ventricular electromechanical delay (EMD) were systematically investigated. Baseline functional parameters were stable during at least 2 hours. Anoxia induced tachycardia, followed by bradycardia, atrial ectopy, first-, second-, and third-degree atrio-ventricular blocks and, finally, transient electromechanical arrest after 6.8 minutes, interquartile ranges (IQR) 3.1-16.2 (n = 8). Reoxygenation triggered also Wenckebach phenomenon and ventricular escape beats. At the onset of reoxygenation QT, PR, and ventricular EMD increased by 68%, 70%, and 250%, respectively, whereas atrial EMD was not altered. No fibrillations, no ventricular ectopic beats, and no electromechanical dissociation were observed. Arrhythmic activity of the isolated atria persisted throughout anoxia and upon reoxygenation, whereas activity of the isolated ventricles abruptly ceased after 5 minutes of anoxia and resumed after 5 minutes of reoxygenation. During hypothermia-rewarming, cardiac activity stopped at 17.9 degrees C, IQR 16.2-20.6 (n = 4) and resumed at the same temperature with no arrhythmias. All preparations fully recovered after 40 minutes of reoxygenation or rewarming. CONCLUSION: In the embryonic heart, arrhythmias mainly originated in the sinoatrial tissue and resembled those observed in the adult heart. Furthermore, oxygen readmission was by far more arrhythmogenic than rewarming and the chronotropic, dromotropic, and inotropic effects were fully reversible.

Interhemispheric coupling between the posterior sylvian regions impacts successful auditory temporal order judgment

Introduction: Accurate registration of the relative timing between the occurrence of sensory events on a sub-second time scale is crucial for both sensory-motor and cognitive functions (Mauk and Buonomano, 2004; Habib, 2000). Support for this assumption comes notably from evidence that temporal processing impairments are implicated in a range of neurological and psychiatric conditions (e.g. Buhusi & Meck, 2005). For instance, deficits in fast auditory temporal integration have been regularly put forward as resulting in phonologic discrimination impairments at the basis of speech comprehension deficits characterizing e.g. dyslexia (Habib, 2000). At least two aspects of the brain mechanisms of temporal order judgment remain unknown. First, it is unknown when during the course of stimulus processing a temporal ,,stamp‟ is established to guide TOJ perception. Second, the extent of interplay between the cerebral hemispheres in engendering accurate TOJ performance is unresolved Methods: We investigated the spatiotemporal brain dynamics of auditory temporal order judgment (aTOJ) using electrical neuroimaging analyses of auditory evoked potentials (AEPs) recorded while participants completed a near-threshold task requiring spatial discrimination of left-right and right-left sound sequences. Results: AEPs to sound pairs modulated topographically as a function of aTOJ accuracy over the 39-77ms post-stimulus period, indicating the engagement of distinct configurations of brain networks during early auditory processing stages. Source estimations revealed that accurate and inaccurate performance were linked to bilateral posterior sylvian regions activity (PSR). However, activity within left, but not right, PSR predicted behavioral performance suggesting that left PSR activity during early encoding phases of pairs of auditory spatial stimuli appears critical for the perception of their order of occurrence. Correlation analyses of source estimations further revealed that activity between left and right PSR was significantly correlated in the inaccurate but not accurate condition, indicating that aTOJ accuracy depends on the functional de-coupling between homotopic PSR areas. Conclusions: These results support a model of temporal order processing wherein behaviorally relevant temporal information - i.e. a temporal 'stamp'- is extracted within the early stages of cortical processes within left PSR but critically modulated by inputs from right PSR. We discuss our results with regard to current models of temporal of temporal order processing, namely gating and latency mechanisms.

Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS) for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced single events including the location of the ignition points and additional information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes (lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters detected in the northern mountainous area.

Development of model observers applied to 3D breast tomosynthesis microcalcifications and masses

The development of model observers for mimicking human detection strategies has followed from symmetric signals in simple noise to increasingly complex backgrounds. In this study we implement different model observers for the complex task of detecting a signal in a 3D image stack. The backgrounds come from real breast tomosynthesis acquisitions and the signals were simulated and reconstructed within the volume. Two different tasks relevant to the early detection of breast cancer were considered: detecting an 8 mm mass and detecting a cluster of microcalcifications. The model observers were calculated using a channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) with dense difference-of-Gaussian channels, and a modified (Partial prewhitening [PPW]) observer which was adapted to realistic signals which are not circularly symmetric. The sustained temporal sensitivity function was used to filter the images before applying the spatial templates. For a frame rate of five frames per second, the only CHO that we calculated performed worse than the humans in a 4-AFC experiment. The other observers were variations of PPW and outperformed human observers in every single case. This initial frame rate was a rather low speed and the temporal filtering did not affect the results compared to a data set with no human temporal effects taken into account. We subsequently investigated two higher speeds at 5, 15 and 30 frames per second. We observed that for large masses, the two types of model observers investigated outperformed the human observers and would be suitable with the appropriate addition of internal noise. However, for microcalcifications both only the PPW observer consistently outperformed the humans. The study demonstrated the possibility of using a model observer which takes into account the temporal effects of scrolling through an image stack while being able to effectively detect a range of mass sizes and distributions.