How family caregivers' medical and moral assumptions influence decision making for patients in the vegetative state: a qualitative interview study.

Background Decisions on limiting life-sustaining treatment for patients in the vegetative state (VS) are emotionally and morally challenging. In Germany, doctors have to discuss, together with the legal surrogate (often a family member), whether the proposed treatment is in accordance with the patient's will. However, it is unknown whether family members of the patient in the VS actually base their decisions on the patient's wishes. Objective To examine the role of advance directives, orally expressed wishes, or the presumed will of patients in a VS for family caregivers' decisions on life-sustaining treatment. Methods and sample A qualitative interview study with 14 next of kin of patients in a VS in a long-term care setting was conducted; 13 participants were the patient's legal surrogates. Interviews were analysed according to qualitative content analysis. Results The majority of family caregivers said that they were aware of aforementioned wishes of the patient that could be applied to the VS condition, but did not base their decisions primarily on these wishes. They gave three reasons for this: (a) the expectation of clinical improvement, (b) the caregivers' definition of life-sustaining treatments and (c) the moral obligation not to harm the patient. If the patient's wishes were not known or not revealed, the caregivers interpreted a will to live into the patient's survival and non-verbal behaviour. Conclusions Whether or not prior treatment wishes of patients in a VS are respected depends on their applicability, and also on the medical assumptions and moral attitudes of the surrogates. We recommend repeated communication, support for the caregivers and advance care planning.

Recombinant human insulin-like growth factor I (rhIGF-I) for the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis/motor neuron disease.

BACKGROUND: Recombinant human insulin-like growth factor I (rhIGF-I) is a possible disease modifying therapy for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS, which is also known as motor neuron disease (MND)). OBJECTIVES: To examine the efficacy of rhIGF-I in affecting disease progression, impact on measures of functional health status, prolonging survival and delaying the use of surrogates (tracheostomy and mechanical ventilation) to sustain survival in ALS. Occurrence of adverse events was also reviewed. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Neuromuscular Disease Group Specialized Register (21 November 2011), CENTRAL (2011, Issue 4), MEDLINE (January 1966 to November 2011) and EMBASE (January 1980 to November 2011) and sought information from the authors of randomised clinical trials and manufacturers of rhIGF-I. SELECTION CRITERIA: We considered all randomised controlled clinical trials involving rhIGF-I treatment of adults with definite or probable ALS according to the El Escorial Criteria. The primary outcome measure was change in Appel Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Rating Scale (AALSRS) total score after nine months of treatment and secondary outcome measures were change in AALSRS at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 months, change in quality of life (Sickness Impact Profile scale), survival and adverse events. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Each author independently graded the risk of bias in the included studies. The lead author extracted data and the other authors checked them. We generated some missing data by making ruler measurements of data in published graphs. We collected data about adverse events from the included trials. MAIN RESULTS: We identified three randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of rhIGF-I, involving 779 participants, for inclusion in the analysis. In a European trial (183 participants) the mean difference (MD) in change in AALSRS total score after nine months was -3.30 (95% confidence interval (CI) -8.68 to 2.08). In a North American trial (266 participants), the MD after nine months was -6.00 (95% CI -10.99 to -1.01). The combined analysis from both RCTs showed a MD after nine months of -4.75 (95% CI -8.41 to -1.09), a significant difference in favour of the treated group. The secondary outcome measures showed non-significant trends favouring rhIGF-I. There was an increased risk of injection site reactions with rhIGF-I (risk ratio 1.26, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.54). . A second North American trial (330 participants) used a novel primary end point involving manual muscle strength testing. No differences were demonstrated between the treated and placebo groups in this study. All three trials were at high risk of bias. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Meta-analysis revealed a significant difference in favour of rhIGF-I treatment; however, the quality of the evidence from the two included trials was low. A third study showed no difference between treatment and placebo. There is no evidence for increase in survival with IGF1. All three included trials were at high risk of bias.

A stratified approach for modeling the distribution of a threatened ant species in the Swiss National Park

We present models predicting the potential distribution of a threatened ant species, Formica exsecta Nyl., in the Swiss National Park ( SNP). Data to fit the models have been collected according to a random-stratified design with an equal number of replicates per stratum. The basic aim of such a sampling strategy is to allow the formal testing of biological hypotheses about those factors most likely to account for the distribution of the modeled species. The stratifying factors used in this study were: vegetation, slope angle and slope aspect, the latter two being used as surrogates of solar radiation, considered one of the basic requirements of F. exsecta. Results show that, although the basic stratifying predictors account for more than 50% of the deviance, the incorporation of additional non-spatially explicit predictors into the model, as measured in the field, allows for an increased model performance (up to nearly 75%). However, this was not corroborated by permutation tests. Implementation on a national scale was made for one model only, due to the difficulty of obtaining similar predictors on this scale. The resulting map on the national scale suggests that the species might once have had a broader distribution in Switzerland. Reasons for its particular abundance within the SNP might possibly be related to habitat fragmentation and vegetation transformation outside the SNP boundaries.

Host factors in occupational diisocyanate asthma: a Swiss longitudinal study

Objective: To investigate the usefulness of surrogates for individual susceptibility to organic diisocyanates in occupational asthma. Subjects: All new cases declared to the Swiss National Accident Insurance Company (SUVA) for establishment of a case for compensable occupational disease during 1993. Sixty-nine persons, of whom three were women, were suspected of having occupational asthma due to isocyanates. Of these, 47 subjects fulfilled the criteria to be accepted as an occupational disease case. Methods: All subjects were studied clinically and gave a blood sample for the phenotyping of their alpha-antitrypsin status and for immunological studies. The subjects were also given a peroral dose of caffeine for the determination of their N-acetylation capacity. Finally, those with an occupational disease were subjected to the methacholine provocation test. Results: Forty-four persons with occupational disease, out of 47, were heterozygous antitrypsin carriers and/or slow acetylators of primary amines. In the bronchial provocation with methacholine, 12 of these subjects had an unaltered response and seven had a mild reaction, 13 a moderate one and 15 a severe reaction. Interpretation: The study confirms the finding that slow N-acetylators are susceptible to asthma from exposure to common diisocyanate monomers at work. The same applies to heterozygous antitrypsin-phenotype carriers. Thus, the use of these markers may reinforce the diagnostic procedure, but they cannot completely replace the immunological tests. [Authors]

Immunity to pneumococcal surface proteins in children with community-acquired pneumonia: a distinct pattern of responses to pneumococcal choline-binding protein A.

Clin Microbiol Infect ABSTRACT: The aetiological diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is challenging in children, and serological markers would be useful surrogates for epidemiological studies of pneumococcal CAP. We compared the use of anti-pneumolysin (Ply) antibody alone or with four additional pneumococcal surface proteins (PSPs) (pneumococcal histidine triad D (PhtD), pneumococcal histidine triad E (PhtE), LytB, and pneumococcal choline-binding protein A (PcpA)) as serological probes in children hospitalized with CAP. Recent pneumococcal exposure (positive blood culture for Streptococcus pneumoniae, Ply(+) blood PCR finding, and PSP seroresponse) was predefined as supporting the diagnosis of presumed pneumococcal CAP (P-CAP). Twenty-three of 75 (31%) children with CAP (mean age 33.7 months) had a Ply(+) PCR finding and/or a ≥2-fold increase of antibodies. Adding seroresponses to four PSPs identified 12 additional patients (35/75, 45%), increasing the sensitivity of the diagnosis of P-CAP from 0.44 (Ply alone) to 0.94. Convalescent anti-Ply and anti-PhtD antibody titres were significantly higher in P-CAP than in non P-CAP patients (446 vs. 169 ELISA Units (EU)/mL, p 0.031, and 189 vs. 66 EU/mL, p 0.044), confirming recent exposure. Acute anti-PcpA titres were three-fold lower (71 vs. 286 EU/mL, p <0.001) in P-CAP children. Regression analyses confirmed a low level of acute PcpA antibodies as the only independent predictor (p 0.002) of P-CAP. Novel PSPs facilitate the demonstration of recent pneumococcal exposure in CAP children. Low anti-PcpA antibody titres at admission distinguished children with P-CAP from those with CAP with a non-pneumococcal origin.

Surrogate decision making for patients with end-stage dementia.

OBJECTIVE: We aim to explore how health surrogates of patients with dementia proceed in decision making, which considerations are decisive, and whether family surrogates and professional guardians decide differently. METHODS: We conducted an experimental vignette study using think aloud protocol analysis. Thirty-two family surrogates and professional guardians were asked to decide on two hypothetical case vignettes, concerning a feeding tube placement and a cardiac pacemaker implantation in patients with end-stage dementia. They had to verbalize their thoughts while deciding. Verbalizations were audio-recorded, transcribed, and analyzed according to content analysis. By experimentally changing variables in the vignettes, the impact of these variables on the outcome of decision making was calculated. RESULTS: Although only 25% and 31% of the relatives gave their consent to the feeding tube and pacemaker placement, respectively, 56% and 81% of the professional guardians consented to these life-sustaining measures. Relatives decided intuitively, referred to their own preferences, and focused on the patient's age, state of wellbeing, and suffering. Professional guardians showed a deliberative approach, relied on medical and legal authorities, and emphasized patient autonomy. Situational variables such as the patient's current behavior and the views of health care professionals and family members had higher impacts on decisions than the patient's prior statements or life attitudes. CONCLUSIONS: Both the process and outcome of surrogate decision making depend heavily on whether the surrogate is a relative or not. These findings have implications for the physician-surrogate relationship and legal frameworks regarding surrogacy. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A general linear relaxometry model of R1 using imaging data.

PURPOSE: The longitudinal relaxation rate (R1 ) measured in vivo depends on the local microstructural properties of the tissue, such as macromolecular, iron, and water content. Here, we use whole brain multiparametric in vivo data and a general linear relaxometry model to describe the dependence of R1 on these components. We explore a) the validity of having a single fixed set of model coefficients for the whole brain and b) the stability of the model coefficients in a large cohort. METHODS: Maps of magnetization transfer (MT) and effective transverse relaxation rate (R2 *) were used as surrogates for macromolecular and iron content, respectively. Spatial variations in these parameters reflected variations in underlying tissue microstructure. A linear model was applied to the whole brain, including gray/white matter and deep brain structures, to determine the global model coefficients. Synthetic R1 values were then calculated using these coefficients and compared with the measured R1 maps. RESULTS: The model's validity was demonstrated by correspondence between the synthetic and measured R1 values and by high stability of the model coefficients across a large cohort. CONCLUSION: A single set of global coefficients can be used to relate R1 , MT, and R2 * across the whole brain. Our population study demonstrates the robustness and stability of the model. Magn Reson Med, 2014. © 2014 The Authors. Magnetic Resonance in Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Magn Reson Med 73:1309-1314, 2015. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Introduction of snow and geomorphic disturbance variables into predictive models of alpine plant distribution in the Western Swiss Alps

Indirect topographic variables have been used successfully as surrogates for disturbance processes in plant species distribution models (SDM) in mountain environments. However, no SDM studies have directly tested the performance of disturbance variables. In this study, we developed two disturbance variables: a geomorphic index (GEO) and an index of snow redistribution by wind (SNOW). These were developed in order to assess how they improved both the fit and predictive power of presenceabsence SDM based on commonly used topoclimatic (TC) variables for 91 plants in the Western Swiss Alps. The individual contribution of the disturbance variables was compared to TC variables. Maps of models were prepared to spatially test the effect of disturbance variables. On average, disturbance variables significantly improved the fit but not the predictive power of the TC models and their individual contribution was weak (5.6% for GEO and 3.3% for SNOW). However their maximum individual contribution was important (24.7% and 20.7%). Finally, maps including disturbance variables (i) were significantly divergent from TC models in terms of predicted suitable surfaces and connectivity between potential habitats, and (ii) were interpreted as more ecologically relevant. Disturbance variables did not improve the transferability of models at the local scale in a complex mountain system, and the performance and contribution of these variables were highly species-specific. However, improved spatial projections and change in connectivity are important issues when preparing projections under climate change because the future range size of the species will determine the sensitivity to changing conditions.

Pheomelanin-based coloration and the ability to cope with variation in food supply and parasitism.

Although gene by environment interactions may play a key role in the maintenance of genetic polymorphisms, little is known about the ecological factors involved in these interactions. We investigated whether food supply and parasites can mediate covariation between the degree of adult pheomelanin-based coloration, a heritable trait, and offspring body mass in the tawny owl (Strix aluco). We swapped clutches between nests to allocate genotypes randomly among environments. Three weeks after hatching, we challenged the immune system of 80 unrelated nestlings with either a phytohemagglutinin (PHA) or a lipopolysaccharide, surrogates of alternative parasites, and then fed them ad lib. or food-restricted them during the following 6 days in the laboratory. Whatever the immune challenge, nestlings fed ad lib. converted food more efficiently into body mass when their biological mother was dark pheomelanic. In contrast, food-restricted nestlings challenged with PHA lost less body mass when their biological mother was pale pheomelanic. Nestling tawny owls born from differently melanic mothers thus show differing reaction norms relative to food availability and parasitism. This suggests that dark and pale pheomelanic owls reflect alternative adaptations to food availability and parasites, factors known to vary in space and time.

Surrogate science: The idol of a universal method for scientific inference

The application of statistics to science is not a neutral act. Statistical tools have shaped and were also shaped by its objects. In the social sciences, statistical methods fundamentally changed research practice, making statistical inference its centerpiece. At the same time, textbook writers in the social sciences have transformed rivaling statistical systems into an apparently monolithic method that could be used mechanically. The idol of a universal method for scientific inference has been worshipped since the "inference revolution" of the 1950s. Because no such method has ever been found, surrogates have been created, most notably the quest for significant p values. This form of surrogate science fosters delusions and borderline cheating and has done much harm, creating, for one, a flood of irreproducible results. Proponents of the "Bayesian revolution" should be wary of chasing yet another chimera: an apparently universal inference procedure. A better path would be to promote both an understanding of the various devices in the "statistical toolbox" and informed judgment to select among these.

Biomarkers of Host Response Predict Primary End-Point Radiological Pneumonia in Tanzanian Children with Clinical Pneumonia: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosing pediatric pneumonia is challenging in low-resource settings. The World Health Organization (WHO) has defined primary end-point radiological pneumonia for use in epidemiological and vaccine studies. However, radiography requires expertise and is often inaccessible. We hypothesized that plasma biomarkers of inflammation and endothelial activation may be useful surrogates for end-point pneumonia, and may provide insight into its biological significance. METHODS: We studied children with WHO-defined clinical pneumonia (n = 155) within a prospective cohort of 1,005 consecutive febrile children presenting to Tanzanian outpatient clinics. Based on x-ray findings, participants were categorized as primary end-point pneumonia (n = 30), other infiltrates (n = 31), or normal chest x-ray (n = 94). Plasma levels of 7 host response biomarkers at presentation were measured by ELISA. Associations between biomarker levels and radiological findings were assessed by Kruskal-Wallis test and multivariable logistic regression. Biomarker ability to predict radiological findings was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and Classification and Regression Tree analysis. RESULTS: Compared to children with normal x-ray, children with end-point pneumonia had significantly higher C-reactive protein, procalcitonin and Chitinase 3-like-1, while those with other infiltrates had elevated procalcitonin and von Willebrand Factor and decreased soluble Tie-2 and endoglin. Clinical variables were not predictive of radiological findings. Classification and Regression Tree analysis generated multi-marker models with improved performance over single markers for discriminating between groups. A model based on C-reactive protein and Chitinase 3-like-1 discriminated between end-point pneumonia and non-end-point pneumonia with 93.3% sensitivity (95% confidence interval 76.5-98.8), 80.8% specificity (72.6-87.1), positive likelihood ratio 4.9 (3.4-7.1), negative likelihood ratio 0.083 (0.022-0.32), and misclassification rate 0.20 (standard error 0.038). CONCLUSIONS: In Tanzanian children with WHO-defined clinical pneumonia, combinations of host biomarkers distinguished between end-point pneumonia, other infiltrates, and normal chest x-ray, whereas clinical variables did not. These findings generate pathophysiological hypotheses and may have potential research and clinical utility.

Scoring criteria for portable monitor recordings: a comparison of four hypopnoea definitions in a population-based cohort.

RATIONALE: Limited-channel portable monitors (PMs) are increasingly used as an alternative to polysomnography (PSG) for the diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA). However, recommendations for the scoring of PM recordings are still lacking. Pulse-wave amplitude (PWA) drops, considered as surrogates for EEG arousals, may increase the detection sensitivity for respiratory events in PM recordings. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the performance of four different hypopnoea scoring criteria, using 3% or 4% oxygen desaturation levels, including or not PWA drops as surrogates for EEG arousals, and to determine the impact of measured versus reported sleep time on OSA diagnosis. METHODS: Subjects drawn from a population-based cohort underwent a complete home PSG. The PSG recordings were scored using the 2012 American Academy of Sleep Medicine criteria to determine the apnoea-hypopnoea index (AHI). Recordings were then rescored using only parameters available on type 3 PM devices according to different hypopnoea criteria and patients-reported sleep duration to determine the 'portable monitor AHIs' (PM-AHIs). MAIN RESULTS: 312 subjects were included. Overall, PM-AHIs showed a good concordance with the PSG-based AHI although it tended to slightly underestimate it. The PM-AHI using 3% desaturation without PWA drops showed the best diagnostic accuracy for AHI thresholds of ≥5/h and ≥15/h (correctly classifying 94.55% and 93.27% of subjects, respectively, vs 80.13% and 87.50% with PWA drops). There was a significant but modest correlation between PWA drops and EEG arousals (r=0.20, p=0.0004). CONCLUSION: Interpretation of PM recordings using hypopnoea criteria which include 3% desaturation without PWA drops as EEG arousal surrogate showed the best diagnosis accuracy compared with full PSG.

Very high-resolution digital elevation models: are multi-scale-derived variables ecologically relevant?

1. Digital elevation models (DEMs) are often used in landscape ecology to retrieve elevation or first derivative terrain attributes such as slope or aspect in the context of species distribution modelling. However, DEM-derived variables are scale-dependent and, given the increasing availability of very high-resolution (VHR) DEMs, their ecological relevancemust be assessed for different spatial resolutions. 2. In a study area located in the Swiss Western Alps, we computed VHR DEMs-derived variables related to morphometry, hydrology and solar radiation. Based on an original spatial resolution of 0.5 m, we generated DEM-derived variables at 1, 2 and 4 mspatial resolutions, applying a Gaussian Pyramid. Their associations with local climatic factors, measured by sensors (direct and ambient air temperature, air humidity and soil moisture) as well as ecological indicators derived fromspecies composition, were assessed with multivariate generalized linearmodels (GLM) andmixed models (GLMM). 3. Specific VHR DEM-derived variables showed significant associations with climatic factors. In addition to slope, aspect and curvature, the underused wetness and ruggedness indices modelledmeasured ambient humidity and soilmoisture, respectively. Remarkably, spatial resolution of VHR DEM-derived variables had a significant influence on models' strength, with coefficients of determination decreasing with coarser resolutions or showing a local optimumwith a 2 mresolution, depending on the variable considered. 4. These results support the relevance of using multi-scale DEM variables to provide surrogates for important climatic variables such as humidity, moisture and temperature, offering suitable alternatives to direct measurements for evolutionary ecology studies at a local scale.