Risk assessment of herbicide mixtures in a large European lake

Lake Geneva is one of the largest European lakes with a surface area of 580 km2. Its catchment area covers 7400 km2, of which approximately 20% is arable land. Monitoring campaigns have been carried out in 2004 and 2005 to determine the contamination of the lake by pesticides. The results highlight the widespread presence of herbicides in water, the measured concentrations for most substances remaining constant in 2004 and 2005. However, for some individual herbicides the concentrations increased drastically (e.g., the herbicide foramsulfuron). We assessed the environmental risk of the herbicides detected in the lake using water quality criteria recently determined for the Swiss environmental protection agency. Furthermore, we assessed the risk of herbicide mixtures, grouped based upon their mode of action. Generally, the risk estimated for all single substances is low, except for some sulfonylurea compounds. For these substances, the measured concentrations are higher than the predicted no-effect concentration. Impact on the flora of the lake can therefore not be excluded. When mixtures of pesticides with similar mode of action are taken into account, the risk remains lower than the mixture water quality criteria for all groups, but can reach as high as one third of this quality criteria. A further step would therefore be to assess the risk of the total pesticide mixture, including similar and dissimilar modes of action

Supply-side risk adjustment and outlier payment policy

In most health care systems where a prospective payment system is implemented, an outlier payment is used to cover the hospitals' unusually high costs. When the hospital chooses its cost reduction effort before observing a patient's severity, we show that the best outlier payment is based on the realized cost when the hospital exerts the first best level of effort, for any level of severity. [Authors]

Gastric supply manipulation to modulate ghrelin production and enhance vascularization to the cardia: proof of the concept in a porcine model.

Introduction. Selective embolization of the left-gastric artery (LGA) reduces levels of ghrelin and achieves significant short-term weight loss. However, embolization of the LGA would prevent the performance of bariatric procedures because the high-risk leakage area (gastroesophageal junction [GEJ]) would be devascularized. Aim. To assess an alternative vascular approach to the modulation of ghrelin levels and generate a blood flow manipulation, consequently increasing the vascular supply to the GEJ. Materials and methods. A total of 6 pigs underwent a laparoscopic clipping of the left gastroepiploic artery. Preoperative and postoperative CT angiographies were performed. Ghrelin levels were assessed perioperatively and then once per week for 3 weeks. Reactive oxygen species (ROS; expressed as ROS/mg of dry weight [DW]), mitochondria respiratory rate, and capillary lactates were assessed before and 1 hour after clipping (T0 and T1) and after 3 weeks of survival (T2), on seromuscular biopsies. A celiac trunk angiography was performed at 3 weeks. Results. Mean (±standard deviation) ghrelin levels were significantly reduced 1 hour after clipping (1902 ± 307.8 pg/mL vs 1084 ± 680.0; P = .04) and at 3 weeks (954.5 ± 473.2 pg/mL; P = .01). Mean ROS levels were statistically significantly decreased at the cardia at T2 when compared with T0 (0.018 ± 0.006 mg/DW vs 0.02957 ± 0.0096 mg/DW; P = .01) and T1 (0.0376 ± 0.008mg/DW; P = .007). Capillary lactates were significantly decreased after 3 weeks, and the mitochondria respiratory rate remained constant over time at the cardia and pylorus, showing significant regional differences. Conclusions. Manipulation of the gastric flow targeting the gastroepiploic arcade induces ghrelin reduction. An endovascular approach is currently under evaluation.

Health care supply, payment system and medical practice : evidence from obstetric practice

ABSTRACTA significant share of deliveries are performed by Cesarian section (C-section) in Europe and in many developed and developing countries. The aims of this thesis are to highlight the non medical, especially economic and financial, incentives that explain the use of C-section, as well as the medical consequences of C-section on women's health, in regard with other factors of ob¬stetrical care quality such as hospital concentration. Those diagnoses enable us to exhibit ways of improvement of obstetrical care quality in France. Our analysis focus on two countries, France and Switzerland. In the first part of the thesis, we show the influence of two non medical factors on the C-section use, namely the hospital payment system on the one hand and the obstetricians behaviour, especially their demand for leisure, on the other hand. With French data on the year 2003, we show firstly that the fee-for-service payment system of private for profit hospitals induces a higher probability of using C-section. Obstetricians play also a preeminent role in the decision to use a C-section, as the probability of a C-section rises with the number of obstetricians. We then focus on a French reform introduced in 2004, to investigate the impact of Prospective Payment System on obstetric practise. We show that the rise of C-section rate between 2003 and 2006 is mainly caused by changes in hospitals and patients features. Obstetricians practises do not vary a lot for patients with the same risk code. In the mean time however, the number of women coded with a high risk rises. This can be caused by improvements in the quality of coding, obstetricians chosing codes that match better the real health state of their patients. Yet, it can also show that obstetricians change their coding practises to justify the use of certain practises, such as C-section, with no regard to the health state of patients. Financial factors are not the only non medical fac¬tors that can influence the resort to C-section. Using Shelton Brown ΠΙ identification strategy, we focus on the potential impact of obstetricians leisure preference on the use of C-section. We use the distributions of days and hours of delivering and the types of C-section - planned or emergency C-sections - to show that the obstetricians demand for leisure has a significant impact on the resort to C-section, but only in emergency situations. The second part of the thesis deals with some ways to improve obstetric care quality. We use on the one hand swiss and french data to study the impact of C-section on the patients' probability of having an obstetric complication and on the other hand the influence of hospital concentration on the quality of obstetric care. We find the same results as former medical studies about the risks entailed by C-section on obstetric complications.These results prove women ought to be better informed of the medical consequences of C-section and that the slowing of C-section use should be a priority of public health policy. We finally focus on another way to improve obstetric care quality, that is hospital lmarket concentration. We investigate the impact of hospital concentration by integrating the Herfindahl-Hirschman index in our model, on health care quality, measured by the HCUP indicator. We find that hospital concentration has a negative impact on obstetric care quality, which undermines today's policy of hospital closings in France.JEL classification: 112; 118Keywords: Hospital; C-section; Payment System; Counterfactual Estimation; Quality of Care.RÉSUMÉUne part importante des accouchements sont réalisés par césarienne en Europe et dans de nom¬breux pays développés ou en développement. Les objectifs de cette thèse sont de mettre en évidence les déterminants non médicaux, notamment économiques et financiers, expliquant le développe¬ment de cette pratique, ainsi que ses conséquences sur la santé des femmes après Γ accouchement, en lien avec d'autres facteurs comme la concentration locale des structures hospitalières. Les résul¬tats exposés dans cette thèse éclairent les perspectives et voies d'amélioration de la qualité des soins en obstétriques.Notre analyse se concentre sur deux pays : la France et la Suisse. Dans la première partie de la thèse, nous mettons en évidence l'influence de deux déterminants non médicaux sur l'emploi de la césarienne : le système de paiement des hôpitaux d'une part, et le comportement des médecins obstétriciens d'autre part. En étudiant des données françaises de 2003, nous montrons d'abord que le financement à l'acte des établissements privés engendre une hausse de la proba¬bilité de pratiquer une césarienne. Le rôle de l'obstrétricien paraît également déterminant dans la décision d'opérer une césarienne, la probabilité d'employer cette technique augmentant avec le nombre d'obstétriciens. Nous nous intéressons ensuite à l'impact de la mise en place en 2004 du système de paiement prospectif sur l'évolution des pratiques obstétricales entre 2003 et 2006 en France. La hausse du taux de recours à la césarienne entre 2004 et 2006 peut ainsi être principa¬lement imputée aux évolutions des caractéristiques des hôpitaux et des patients, les pratiques des obstétriciens, pour un même codage de la situation du patient, variant peu. Dans le même temps cependant, les pratiques de codage des patients parles obstétriciens évoluent fortement, les femmes étant de plus en plus nombreuses à porter des codes correspondant à des situations à risques. Cette évolution peut indiquer que la qualité du codage en 2006 s'est améliorée par rapport à 2004, le codage correspondant de plus en plus à la situation réelle des patientes. H peut aussi indiquer que les pratiques de codage évoluent pour justifier un recours accru à la césarienne, sans lien avec l'état réel des patientes. Les facteurs financiers ne sont pas les seuls facteurs non médicaux à pouvoir expliquer le recours à la césarienne : nous nous intéressons, en suivant la stratégie d'identifica¬tion de Shelton Brown m, à l'impact potentiel de la demande de loisir des médecins obstétriciens sur la pratique de la césarienne. En utilisant la distribution des jours et heures d'accouchement, et en distinguant les césariennes planifiées de celles effectuées en urgence, nous constatons que la demande de loisir des obstétriciens influence significativement le recours à la césarienne, mais uni¬quement pour les interventions d'urgence. La deuxième partie de la thèse est consacrée à l'étude de la qualité des soins en obstétriques. Nous utilisons des données suisses et françaises pour analyser d'une part l'impact de la césarienne sur la survenue de complications obstétricales et d'autre part l'impact de la concentration des soins sur la qualité des soins en obstétrique. Nons confirmons les résultats antérieurs de la littérature médicale sur la dangerosité de la césarienne comme facteur de complications obstétricales. Ces conclusions montrent que les femmes ont besoin d'être informées des conséquences de la césarienne sur leur santé et que le ralentissement de l'augmentation de la pratique de la césarienne devrait être un objectif de la politique publique de santé. Nous nous in¬téressons à un autre facteur d'amélioration des soins en obstrétique, l'organisation des hôpitaux et particulièrement leur concentration. Nous estimons ainsi l'effet de la concentration sur la qualité des soins obstétriques en intégrant l'indice de Herfindahl-Hirschman dans notre modèle, la qualité des soins étant mesurée à l'aide de l'indicateur HCUP. Nous constatons que la concentration des naissances a un impact négatif sur la qualité des soins en obstétrique, résultat qui va dans le sens contraire des politiques de fermeture d'hôpitaux menées actuellement en France. JEL classification : 112 ; 118Mots-clés : Hôpital ; Césarienne ; Système de paiement ; Contrefactuels ; Qualité des soins, sur la qualité des soins en obstétrique.

From the vendor in the hemp shop to the dealer in the alleyway? A comparison of the sources of supply of cannabis in a time of 'de-normalising' cannabis use.

Objectives: After several years of increasing 'normalisation' of cannabis use in Switzerland at the beginning of the new millennium, a reversed tendency, marked among others by a more stringent law-enforcement, set in. The presentation examines the question of where adolescents and young adults obtained cannabis, within the context of this societal change. In addition, it compares the sources of supply for cannabis with those found in studies of other European countries. Methods: Analyses are based on data from the Swiss Cannabis Monitoring Study. As part of this longitudinal, representative population survey, more than 5000 adolescents and young adults were interviewed by telephone on the topic of cannabis. Within the total sample, 593 (2004) or 554 (2007) respectively, current cannabis users replied to the questions on sources of supply. Changes in law-enforcement and societal climate concerning cannabis are assessed based on relevant literature, media reports and parliamentary discussions. Results: Whereas 22% of cannabis users stated in 2004 that they bought their cannabis from vendors in hemp shops, this proportion drastically decreased to 6% three years later. At the same time, cannabis was obtained increasingly from friends, while the proportion of users who purchased cannabis from dealers in the alleyway, more than doubled from 6% (2004) to 13% (2007). It was male cannabis users, and in particular, young adult and frequent users, who have moved into the alleyways. Generally, users who buy cannabis in the alleyway show more cannabis-related problems than those who mainly name other sources of supply, even when adjusted for sex, age and frequency of cannabis use. Discussion: Possible consequences of these changes in cannabis supply, like the risk of merging a previously cannabis-only market with other 'harder' drugs markets, are discussed.

Deletion of Sirt3 does not affect atherosclerosis but accelerates weight gain and impairs rapid metabolic adaptation in LDL receptor knockout mice: implications for cardiovascular risk factor development.

Sirt3 is a mitochondrial NAD(+)-dependent deacetylase that governs mitochondrial metabolism and reactive oxygen species homeostasis. Sirt3 deficiency has been reported to accelerate the development of the metabolic syndrome. However, the role of Sirt3 in atherosclerosis remains enigmatic. We aimed to investigate whether Sirt3 deficiency affects atherosclerosis, plaque vulnerability, and metabolic homeostasis. Low-density lipoprotein receptor knockout (LDLR(-/-)) and LDLR/Sirt3 double-knockout (Sirt3(-/-)LDLR(-/-)) mice were fed a high-cholesterol diet (1.25 % w/w) for 12 weeks. Atherosclerosis was assessed en face in thoraco-abdominal aortae and in cross sections of aortic roots. Sirt3 deletion led to hepatic mitochondrial protein hyperacetylation. Unexpectedly, though plasma malondialdehyde levels were elevated in Sirt3-deficient mice, Sirt3 deletion affected neither plaque burden nor features of plaque vulnerability (i.e., fibrous cap thickness and necrotic core diameter). Likewise, plaque macrophage and T cell infiltration as well as endothelial activation remained unaltered. Electron microscopy of aortic walls revealed no difference in mitochondrial microarchitecture between both groups. Interestingly, loss of Sirt3 was associated with accelerated weight gain and an impaired capacity to cope with rapid changes in nutrient supply as assessed by indirect calorimetry. Serum lipid levels and glucose tolerance were unaffected by Sirt3 deletion in LDLR(-/-) mice. Sirt3 deficiency does not affect atherosclerosis in LDLR(-/-) mice. However, Sirt3 controls systemic levels of oxidative stress, limits expedited weight gain, and allows rapid metabolic adaptation. Thus, Sirt3 may contribute to postponing cardiovascular risk factor development.

The risk of subsequent cancer and arterial cardiovascular events in patients with superficial vein thrombosis in the legs.

Although it has been clearly demonstrated that venous thromboembolism is associated with an increased risk of subsequent overt cancer and arterial cardiovascular events in comparison with control populations, whether this association also applies to patients with isolated (ie, without concomitant involvement of the deep vein system) superficial vein thrombosis (SVT) in the legs is unknown. In 737 consecutive patients with isolated SVT not involving the sapheno-femoral junction, we conducted a retrospective investigation to assess the rate of cancer and that of arterial cardiovascular events occurring during follow-up. The event rates were compared with those occurring in 1438 controls having comparable characteristics. Both cases and controls were followed-up for an average period of 26 ± 8 months (range, 3-45). Malignancy was diagnosed in 26 cases (3.5%) and 56 controls (3.9%), leading to a hazard ratio of 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.55%-1.35%). Arterial cardiovascular events occurred in 32 cases (4.3%) and 63 controls (4.4%), leading to a hazard ratio of 0.97 (95% confidence interval, 0.63%-1.50%). We conclude that the occurrence of isolated SVT in the legs does not place patients at an increased risk of malignancies or arterial cardiovascular events. Whether this conclusion also applies to patients whose thrombosis involves the sapheno-femoral junction remains to be demonstrated.

Terrorisme et médecins de premier recours: le risque chimique [Terrorism and medicine of first aid: chemical risk].

Cet article décrit, à l'intention des mdéecins de rpremier recours, les principes de base d'une action de secours lors d'un attentat (ou d'un accident) chimique impliquant de nombreuses victimes intoxiquées et/ou contaminées.

Residual venous obstruction, alone and in combination with D-dimer, as a risk factor for recurrence after anticoagulation withdrawal following a first idiopathic deep vein thrombosis in the prolong study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the predictive value of residual venous obstruction (RVO) for recurrent venous thrombo-embolism (VTE) in a study using D-dimer to predict outcome. DESIGN: This is a multicentre randomised open-label study. METHODS: Patients with a first episode of idiopathic VTE were enrolled on the day of anticoagulation discontinuation when RVO was determined by compression ultrasonography in those with proximal deep vein thrombosis (DVT) of the lower limbs. D-dimer was measured after 1 month. Patients with normal D-dimer did not resume anticoagulation while patients with abnormal D-dimer were randomised to resume anticoagulation or not. The primary outcome measure was recurrent VTE over an 18-month follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 490 DVT patients were analysed (after excluding 19 for different reasons and 118 for isolated pulmonary embolism (PE)). Recurrent DVT occurred in 19% (19/99) of patients with abnormal D-dimer who did not resume anticoagulation and 10% (31/310) in subjects with normal D-dimer (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.1; p = 0.02). Recurrences were similar in subjects either with (11%, 17/151) or without RVO (13%, 32/246). Recurrent DVT rates were also similar for normal D-dimer, with or without RVO, and for abnormal D-dimer, with or without RVO. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated D-dimer at 1 month after anticoagulation withdrawal is a risk factor for recurrence, while RVO at the time of anticoagulation withdrawal is not.

Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.

Quality of Disease Management and Risk of Mortality in English Primary Care Practices

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether better management of chronic conditions by family practices reduces mortality risk. DATA: Two random samples of 5 million patients registered with over 8,000 English family practices followed up for 4 years (2004/5-2007/8). Measures of the quality of disease management for 10 conditions were constructed for each family practice for each year. The outcome measure was an indicator taking the value 1 if the patient died during a specified year, 0 otherwise. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-section and multilevel panel data multiple logistic regressions were estimated. Covariates included age, gender, morbidity, hospitalizations, attributed socio-economic characteristics, and local health care supply measures. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Although a composite measure of the quality of disease management for all 10 conditions was significantly associated with lower mortality, only the quality of stroke care was significant when all 10 quality measures were entered in the regression. CONCLUSIONS: The panel data results suggest that a 1 percent improvement in the quality of stroke care could reduce the annual number of deaths in England by 782 [95 percent CI: 423, 1140]. A longer study period may be necessary to detect any mortality impact of better management of other conditions.