Tackling self-selection into treatment and self-selection into the sample biases in VAA research

Self‐selection into treatment and self‐selection into the sample are major concerns of VAA research and need to be controlled for if the aim is to deduce causal effects from VAA use in observational data. This paper focuses on the methodological aspects of VAA research and outlines omnipresent endogeneity issues, partly imposed through unobserved factors that affect both whether individuals chose to use VAAs and their electoral behavior. We promote using Heckman selection models and apply various versions of the model to data from the Swiss electorate and smartvote users in order to see to what extent selection biases interfere with the estimated effects of interest.

Swain: Stata module to correct the SEM chi-square overidentification test in small sample sizes or complex models. Statistical Software Components S457617, Boston College Department of Economics.

Swain corrects the chi-square overidentification test (i.e., likelihood ratio test of fit) for structural equation models whethr with or without latent variables. The chi-square statistic is asymptotically correct; however, it does not behave as expected in small samples and/or when the model is complex (cf. Herzog, Boomsma, & Reinecke, 2007). Thus, particularly in situations where the ratio of sample size (n) to the number of parameters estimated (p) is relatively small (i.e., the p to n ratio is large), the chi-square test will tend to overreject correctly specified models. To obtain a closer approximation to the distribution of the chi-square statistic, Swain (1975) developed a correction; this scaling factor, which converges to 1 asymptotically, is multiplied with the chi-square statistic. The correction better approximates the chi-square distribution resulting in more appropriate Type 1 reject error rates (see Herzog & Boomsma, 2009; Herzog, et al., 2007).

Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models

A wide range of modelling algorithms is used by ecologists, conservation practitioners, and others to predict species ranges from point locality data. Unfortunately, the amount of data available is limited for many taxa and regions, making it essential to quantify the sensitivity of these algorithms to sample size. This is the first study to address this need by rigorously evaluating a broad suite of algorithms with independent presence-absence data from multiple species and regions. We evaluated predictions from 12 algorithms for 46 species (from six different regions of the world) at three sample sizes (100, 30, and 10 records). We used data from natural history collections to run the models, and evaluated the quality of model predictions with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). With decreasing sample size, model accuracy decreased and variability increased across species and between models. Novel modelling methods that incorporate both interactions between predictor variables and complex response shapes (i.e. GBM, MARS-INT, BRUTO) performed better than most methods at large sample sizes but not at the smallest sample sizes. Other algorithms were much less sensitive to sample size, including an algorithm based on maximum entropy (MAXENT) that had among the best predictive power across all sample sizes. Relative to other algorithms, a distance metric algorithm (DOMAIN) and a genetic algorithm (OM-GARP) had intermediate performance at the largest sample size and among the best performance at the lowest sample size. No algorithm predicted consistently well with small sample size (n < 30) and this should encourage highly conservative use of predictions based on small sample size and restrict their use to exploratory modelling.

Renal transplantation following aorto-iliac reconstruction is a safe a strategy

Introduction: Renal transplantation is considered the treatment of choice for end-stage renal disease. However, the association of occlusive aorto-iliac disease and chronic renal failure is frequent and aorto-iliac reconstruction may be necessary prior to renal transplantation. This retrospective study reviews the results of this operative strategy.Material and Methods: Between January 2001 and June 2010, 309 patients underwent renal transplantation at our institution and 8 patients had prior aorto-iliac reconstruction using prosthetic material. There were 6 men and 2 women with a median age of 62 years (range 51-70). Five aorto-bifemoral and 2 aorto-bi-iliac bypasses were performed for stage II (n=5), stage IV (n=1) and aortic aneurysm (n=1). In one patient, iliac kissing stents and an ilio-femoral bypass were implanted. 4 cadaveric and 4 living donor renal transplantations were performed with an interval of 2 months to 10 years after revascularization.The results were analysed with respect of graft and patients survival. Differences between groups were tested by the log rank method.Results: No complications and no death occurred in the post-operative period. All bypasses remained patent during follow-up. The median time of post transplantation follow-up was 46 months for all patients and 27 months for patients with prior revascularization. In the revascularized group and control group, the graft and patient survival at 1 year were respectively 100%/96%, 100%/99% and at 5 years 86%/86%, 86%/94%, without significant differences between both groups.Discussion: Our results suggest that renal transplantation following prior aorto-iliac revascularisation with prosthetic material is safe and effective. Patients with end-stage renal disease and concomitant aorto-iliac disease should therefore be considered for renal transplantation. However, caution in the interpretation of the results is indicated due to the small sample size of our study.

RTOG 0525: Exploratory Subset Analysis from a Randomized Phase III Trial Comparing Standard (std) Adjuvant Temozolomide (TMZ) with a Dose-dense (dd) Schedule for Glioblastoma (GBM)

Purpose/Objective(s): RTwith TMZ is the standard for GBM. dd TMZ causes prolongedMGMTdepletion in mononuclear cells and possibly in tumor. The RTOG 0525 trial (ASCO 2011) did not show an advantage from dd TMZ for survival or progression free survival. We conducted exploratory, hypothesis-generating subset analyses to detect possible benefit from dd TMZ.Materials/Methods: Patients were randomized to std (150-200 mg/m2 x 5 d) or dd TMZ (75-100 mg/m2 x 21 d) q 4 weeks for 6- 12 cycles. Eligibility included age.18, KPS$ 60, and. 1 cm2 tissue for prospective MGMTanalysis for stratification. Furtheranalyses were performed for all randomized patients (''intent-to-treat'', ITT), and for all patients starting protocol therapy (SPT). Subset analyses were performed by RPA class (III, IV, V), KPS (90-100, = 50,\50), resection (partial, total), gender (female, male), and neurologic dysfunction (nf = none, minor, moderate).Results: No significant difference was seen for median OS (16.6 vs. 14.9 months), or PFS (5.5 vs. 6.7 months, p = 0.06). MGMT methylation was linked to improved OS (21.2 vs. 14 months, p\0.0001), and PFS (8.7 vs. 5.7 months, p\0.0001). For the ITT (n = 833), there was no OS benefit from dd TMZ in any subset. Two subsets showed a PFS benefit for dd TMZ: RPA class III (6.2 vs. 12.6 months, HR 0.69, p = 0.03) and nf = minor (HR 0.77, p = 0.01). For RPA III, dd dramatically delayed progression, but post-progression dd patients died more quickly than std. A similar pattern for nf = minor was observed. For the SPT group (n = 714) there was neither PFS nor OS benefit for dd TMZ, overall. For RPA class III and nf = minor, there was a PFS benefit for dd TMZ (HR 0.73, p = 0.08; HR 0.77, p = 0.02). For nf = moderate subset, both ITT and SPT, the std arm showed superior OS (14.4 vs. 10.9 months) compared to dd, without improved PFS (HR 1.46, p = 0.03; and HR 1.74, p = 0.01. In terms of methylation status within this subset, there were more methylated patients in the std arm of the ITT subset (n = 159; 32 vs. 24%). For the SPT subset (n = 124), methylation status was similar between arms.Conclusions: This study did not demonstrate improved OS for dd TMZ for any subgroup, but for 2 highly functional subgroups, PFS was significantly increased. These data generate the testable hypothesis that intensive treatment may selectively improve disease control in those most likely able to tolerate dd therapy. Interpretation of this should be considered carefully due to small sample size, the process of multiple observations, and other confounders.Acknowledgment: This project was supported by RTOG grant U10 CA21661, and CCOP grant U10 CA37422 from the National Cancer Institute (NCI).

Multivariate QST-FST comparisons: a neutrality test for the evolution of the g matrix in structured populations.

Neutrality tests in quantitative genetics provide a statistical framework for the detection of selection on polygenic traits in wild populations. However, the existing method based on comparisons of divergence at neutral markers and quantitative traits (Q(st)-F(st)) suffers from several limitations that hinder a clear interpretation of the results with typical empirical designs. In this article, we propose a multivariate extension of this neutrality test based on empirical estimates of the among-populations (D) and within-populations (G) covariance matrices by MANOVA. A simple pattern is expected under neutrality: D = 2F(st)/(1 - F(st))G, so that neutrality implies both proportionality of the two matrices and a specific value of the proportionality coefficient. This pattern is tested using Flury's framework for matrix comparison [common principal-component (CPC) analysis], a well-known tool in G matrix evolution studies. We show the importance of using a Bartlett adjustment of the test for the small sample sizes typically found in empirical studies. We propose a dual test: (i) that the proportionality coefficient is not different from its neutral expectation [2F(st)/(1 - F(st))] and (ii) that the MANOVA estimates of mean square matrices between and among populations are proportional. These two tests combined provide a more stringent test for neutrality than the classic Q(st)-F(st) comparison and avoid several statistical problems. Extensive simulations of realistic empirical designs suggest that these tests correctly detect the expected pattern under neutrality and have enough power to efficiently detect mild to strong selection (homogeneous, heterogeneous, or mixed) when it is occurring on a set of traits. This method also provides a rigorous and quantitative framework for disentangling the effects of different selection regimes and of drift on the evolution of the G matrix. We discuss practical requirements for the proper application of our test in empirical studies and potential extensions.

Characterisation of the prodrome to a first episode of psychotic mania: results of a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the early phases of bipolar disorders (BPAD) and most of current knowledge derives from putative "high-risk" studies conducted in populations of bipolar off-spring; such information may therefore be relevant only to a sub-group of at-risk subjects. METHODS: Retrospective assessment of the phase preceding the emergence of mania and of premorbid characteristics of patients treated for a first episode of psychotic mania. The collected data was used mainly to generate hypotheses. RESULTS: Before onset of a first episode of psychotic mania, patients go through a phase of change from previous mental state where they present mood symptoms, sleep disruption and general functional decline. These clinical manifestations are however likely to have low specificity. However, their occurrence in patients presenting certain risk factors or markers of vulnerability that were identified at a relatively high prevalence in our sample, may be an indicator of impending first episode mania. LIMITATIONS: This is a retrospective study, in a small sample of patients presenting with psychotic mania. Criteria identified need therefore to be validated in larger prospective studies. CONCLUSIONS: Early identification of patients at risk to develop a first episode of psychotic mania is unlikely to be possible on the basis of symptoms alone. However, the occurrence of certain clinical characteristics in patients who have risk factors or markers of vulnerability to BPAD could be a sign of impending first episode mania.

Effect of a pilot gait and balance training program: The importance of fear of falling.

Purpose: To determine the evolution of fear of falling, and its relationship with gait performance after a 10-week gait and balance training program. Population and methods: Participants (N=50) were community-dwelling elderly persons enrolled voluntarily in a 10-week, low intensity, gait and balance training program. At baseline, fear of falling was assessed using a previously validated version of Tinetti's Fall Efficacy Scale (FES, range 0-120, higher score indicating higher confidence), that assesses one's confidence in performing 12 activities of daily life without falling. Gait parameters were measured over a 20m walk at preferred gait speed, using the Physilog system (Aminian K, et al., J Biomechanics, 2002). This system uses 4 kinematics sensors attached to the lower limbs and a data logger carried by the subject. Follow-up data on fear of falling and gait were collected one week after completion of the program. Results: Overall, 43 (86%) of the participants completed the program. Mean age was 78.1 years, 79% were women. At baseline, mean FES score was 98.8 (range 58-120) and mean gait speed was 0.92 m/sec (range 0.43-1.47). At follow-up, participants modestly improved their FES score (98.8±17.0 vs 103.2±16.0, P=.04) and gait speed (0.92±0.27 vs 0.99±0.26 m/sec, P<.01). In secondary analyses stratified by subject's baseline FES, those with lower than average confidence (N=21) improved significantly both FES score (84.4±11.8 vs 94.5±17.9, P<.01) and gait speed (0.79±0.26 vs 0.90±0.28 m/sec, P<.01), while no similar improvement was observed in subjects (N=22) with higher baseline confidence (112.5±6.6 vs 111.5±7.5, P=.56 and 1.03±0.22 vs 1.07±0.21 m/sec, P=.41). After adjustment for age, gender and baseline gait speed, subjects with lower baseline confidence had higher odds than the others to improve their confidence (AdjOR=10.8, 95%CI 1.8- 64.8 P=.01) and gait speed (AdjOR=3.3, 95%CI 0.6-19.7, P=.19) at follow-up. Conclusions: This pilot program of low intensity exercise modestly improved participants' fear of falling and gait speed. Interestingly, subjects with higher baseline fear of falling seemed more likely to benefit. Despite methodological limitations (pre-post comparisons, small sample), these results suggest that measuring fear of falling might be useful to better target subjects most likely to benefit from similar programs.

Impact of vaccines given during pregnancy on the offspring of women consulting a travel clinic: a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND: Little is known on the impact of travel vaccinations during pregnancy on child outcomes, in particular on the long-term psychomotor development. The objectives of the study were (1) to estimate the rate of premature births, congenital abnormalities, and mental and physical development problems of children born from mothers who had been vaccinated during pregnancy and (2) to compare these rates with those of children whose mothers had not been vaccinated during pregnancy. METHODS: Longitudinal study including (1) retrospectively pregnant women having attended our travel clinic before (vaccinated) and (2) prospectively mothers attending our clinic (nonvaccinated). We performed phone interviews with mothers vaccinated during pregnancy, up to 10 years before, and face-to-face interviews with nonvaccinated age-matched mothers, ie, women attending the travel clinic who had one child of about the same age as the one of the case to compare child development between both groups. RESULTS: Fifty-three women vaccinated during pregnancy were interviewed as well as 53 nonvaccinated ones. Twenty-eight (53%) women received their vaccination during the first trimester. The most frequent vaccine administered was hepatitis A (55% of the cases), followed by di-Te (34%), IM poliomyelitis (23%), yellow fever (12%), A-C meningitis (8%), IM typhoid (4%), and oral poliomyelitis (4%). Children were followed for a range of 1 to 10 years. Rates of premature births were 5.7% in both groups; congenital abnormalities were 1.9% in the vaccinated cohort versus 5.7% in the nonvaccinated one; children took their first steps at a median age of 12 months in both cohorts; among schoolchildren, 5% of the vaccinated cohort versus 7.7% of the nonvaccinated attended a lower level or a specialized school. CONCLUSION: In this small sample size, there was no indication that usual travel vaccinations, including the yellow fever one, had deleterious effect on child outcome and development

A pilot study combining individual-based smoking cessation counseling, pharmacotherapy, and dental hygiene intervention.

BACKGROUND: Dentists are in a unique position to advise smokers to quit by providing effective counseling on the various aspects of tobacco-induced diseases. The present study assessed the feasibility and acceptability of integrating dentists in a medical smoking cessation intervention. METHODS: Smokers willing to quit underwent an 8-week smoking cessation intervention combining individual-based counseling and nicotine replacement therapy and/or bupropion, provided by a general internist. In addition, a dentist performed a dental exam, followed by an oral hygiene treatment and gave information about chronic effects of smoking on oral health. Outcomes were acceptability, global satisfaction of the dentist's intervention, and smoking abstinence at 6-month. RESULTS: 39 adult smokers were included, and 27 (69%) completed the study. Global acceptability of the dental intervention was very high (94% yes, 6% mostly yes). Annoyances at the dental exam were described as acceptable by participants (61% yes, 23% mostly yes, 6%, mostly no, 10% no). Participants provided very positive qualitative comments about the dentist counseling, the oral exam, and the resulting motivational effect, emphasizing the feeling of oral cleanliness and health that encouraged smoking abstinence. At the end of the intervention (week 8), 17 (44%) participants reported smoking abstinence. After 6 months, 6 (15%, 95% CI 3.5 to 27.2) reported a confirmed continuous smoking abstinence. DISCUSSION: We explored a new multi-disciplinary approach to smoking cessation, which included medical and dental interventions. Despite the small sample size and non-controlled study design, the observed rate was similar to that found in standard medical care. In terms of acceptability and feasibility, our results support further investigations in this field. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN67470159.

Respiratory quotient evolution during normal pregnancy: what nutritional or clinical information can we get out of it?

Food intake increases to a varying extent during pregnancy to provide extra energy for the growing fetus. Measuring the respiratory quotient (RQ) during the course of pregnancy (by quantifying O2 consumption and CO2 production with indirect calorimetry) could be potentially useful since it gives an insight into the evolution of the proportion of carbohydrate vs. fat oxidized during pregnancy and thus allows recommendations on macronutrients for achieving a balanced (or slightly positive) substrate intake. A systematic search of the literature for papers reporting RQ changes during normal pregnancy identified 10 papers reporting original research. The existing evidence supports an increased RQ of varying magnitude in the third trimester of pregnancy, while the discrepant results reported for the first and second trimesters (i.e. no increase in RQ), explained by limited statistical power (small sample size) or fragmentary data, preclude safe conclusions about the evolution of RQ during early pregnancy. From a clinical point of view, measuring RQ during pregnancy requires not only sophisticated and costly indirect calorimeters but appears of limited value outside pure research projects, because of several confounding variables: (1) spontaneous changes in food intake and food composition during the course of pregnancy (which influence RQ); (2) inter-individual differences in weight gain and composition of tissue growth; (3) technical factors, notwithstanding the relatively small contribution of fetal metabolism per se (RQ close to 1.0) to overall metabolism of the pregnant mother.

Multisensor change detection with nonlinear canonical correlation

The analysis of multi-modal and multi-sensor images is nowadays of paramount importance for Earth Observation (EO) applications. There exist a variety of methods that aim at fusing the different sources of information to obtain a compact representation of such datasets. However, for change detection existing methods are often unable to deal with heterogeneous image sources and very few consider possible nonlinearities in the data. Additionally, the availability of labeled information is very limited in change detection applications. For these reasons, we present the use of a semi-supervised kernel-based feature extraction technique. It incorporates a manifold regularization accounting for the geometric distribution and jointly addressing the small sample problem. An exhaustive example using Landsat 5 data illustrates the potential of the method for multi-sensor change detection.

Effectiveness of cladribine therapy in patients with pulmonary Langerhans cell histiocytosis.

BackgroundPulmonary Langerhans cell histiocytosis (PLCH) is a rare disorder characterised by granulomatous proliferation of CD1a-positive histiocytes forming granulomas within lung parenchyma, in strong association with tobacco smoking, and which may result in chronic respiratory failure. Smoking cessation is considered to be critical in management, but has variable effects on outcome. No drug therapy has been validated. Cladribine (chlorodeoxyadenosine, 2-CDA) down-regulates histiocyte proliferation and has been successful in curbing multi-system Langerhans cell histiocytosis and isolated PLCH.Methods and patientsWe retrospectively studied 5 patients (aged 37¿55 years, 3 females) with PLCH who received 3 to 4 courses of cladribine therapy as a single agent (0.1 mg/kg per day for 5 consecutive days at monthly intervals). One patient was treated twice because of relapse at 1 year. Progressive pulmonary disease with obstructive ventilatory pattern despite smoking cessation and/or corticosteroid therapy were indications for treatment. Patients were administered oral trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole and valaciclovir to prevent opportunistic infections. They gave written consent to receive off-label cladribine in the absence of validated treatment.ResultsFunctional class dyspnea improved with cladribine therapy in 4 out of 5 cases, and forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) increased in all cases by a mean of 387 ml (100¿920 ml), contrasting with a steady decline prior to treatment. Chest high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) features improved with cladribine therapy in 4 patients. Hemodynamic improvement was observed in 1 patient with pre-capillary pulmonary hypertension. The results suggested a greater treatment effect in subjects with nodular lung lesions and/or thick-walled cysts on chest HRCT, with diffuse hypermetabolism of lung lesions on positron emission tomography (PET)-scan, and with progressive disease despite smoking cessation. Infectious pneumonia developed in 1 patient, with later grade 4 neutrocytopenia but without infection.DiscussionData interpretation was limited by the retrospective, uncontrolled study design and small sample size.ConclusionCladribine as a single agent may be effective therapy in patients with progressive PLCH.

The effect of treatment with calcitonin on vertebral fracture rate in osteoporosis.

The efficacy of treatments for osteoporosis does not become evident when evaluated by fracture incidence (FI). Vertebral FI decreased in all controlled studies on calcitonin, but not significantly. Small sample sizes and short periods of treatment may have masked a possible therapeutic benefit, but longer, controlled studies with sodium fluoride or etidronate in larger groups of patients also failed to show a decrease in FI. The present analysis of nine published, therapeutic studies which indicate the FI per year and the initial prevalence of vertebral fractures, examines the question of whether the initial prevalence of fractures has an effect on the subsequent incidence of new fractures and whether the therapeutic effects have to be evaluated as a function of the initial prevalence of fractures. Bearing in mind the differences in roentgenological evaluation and in the size and quality of the various studies, the analysis revealed (1) that in the control groups there was a higher FI in patients with more than three vertebral fractures at baseline (estimated odds ratio (OR) = 49, p = 0.011); (2) that a similar trend, although not statistically significant, was observed in treated patients; (3) that the groups of control patients treated for more than 1 year showed in general an increase in FI beyond the first year and that the reverse was true in treated patients. In conclusion, failure to allow for the initial prevalence of vertebral fractures at the individual level in therapeutic trials of calcitonin to treat osteoporosis and prevent new fractures might have contributed to the absence of a demonstrable benefit of the treatment in those studies.

French version validation of the psychotic symptom rating scales (PSYRATS) for outpatients with persistent psychotic symptoms.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Most scales that assess the presence and severity of psychotic symptoms often measure a broad range of experiences and behaviours, something that restricts the detailed measurement of specific symptoms such as delusions or hallucinations. The Psychotic Symptom Rating Scales (PSYRATS) is a clinical assessment tool that focuses on the detailed measurement of these core symptoms. The goal of this study was to examine the psychometric properties of the French version of the PSYRATS. METHODS: A sample of 103 outpatients suffering from schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorders and presenting persistent psychotic symptoms over the previous three months was assessed using the PSYRATS. Seventy-five sample participants were also assessed with the Positive And Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS). RESULTS: ICCs were superior to .90 for all items of the PSYRATS. Factor analysis replicated the factorial structure of the original version of the delusions scale. Similar to previous replications, the factor structure of the hallucinations scale was partially replicated. Convergent validity indicated that some specific PSYRATS items do not correlate with the PANSS delusions or hallucinations. The distress items of the PSYRATS are negatively correlated with the grandiosity scale of the PANSS. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study are limited by the relatively small sample size as well as the selection of participants with persistent symptoms. The French version of the PSYRATS partially replicates previously published results. Differences in factor structure of the hallucinations scale might be explained by greater variability of its elements. The future development of the scale should take into account the presence of grandiosity in order to better capture details of the psychotic experience.