A spatial modelling framework for assessing climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems: Response of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) biomass to warming water temperature

Mountain regions worldwide are particularly sensitive to on-going climate change. Specifically in the Alps in Switzerland, the temperature has increased twice as fast than in the rest of the Northern hemisphere. Water temperature closely follows the annual air temperature cycle, severely impacting streams and freshwater ecosystems. In the last 20 years, brown trout (Salmo trutta L) catch has declined by approximately 40-50% in many rivers in Switzerland. Increasing water temperature has been suggested as one of the most likely cause of this decline. Temperature has a direct effect on trout population dynamics through developmental and disease control but can also indirectly impact dynamics via food-web interactions such as resource availability. We developed a spatially explicit modelling framework that allows spatial and temporal projections of trout biomass using the Aare river catchment as a model system, in order to assess the spatial and seasonal patterns of trout biomass variation. Given that biomass has a seasonal variation depending on trout life history stage, we developed seasonal biomass variation models for three periods of the year (Autumn-Winter, Spring and Summer). Because stream water temperature is a critical parameter for brown trout development, we first calibrated a model to predict water temperature as a function of air temperature to be able to further apply climate change scenarios. We then built a model of trout biomass variation by linking water temperature to trout biomass measurements collected by electro-fishing in 21 stations from 2009 to 2011. The different modelling components of our framework had overall a good predictive ability and we could show a seasonal effect of water temperature affecting trout biomass variation. Our statistical framework uses a minimum set of input variables that make it easily transferable to other study areas or fish species but could be improved by including effects of the biotic environment and the evolution of demographical parameters over time. However, our framework still remains informative to spatially highlight where potential changes of water temperature could affect trout biomass. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.-

Weather and cardiovascular mortality.

Already in ancient Greece, Hippocrates postulated that disease showed a seasonal pattern characterised by excess winter mortality. Since then, several studies have confirmed this finding, and it was generally accepted that the increase in winter mortality was mostly due to respiratory infections and seasonal influenza. More recently, it was shown that cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality also displayed such seasonality, and that the magnitude of the seasonal effect increased from the poles to the equator. The recent study by Yang et al assessed CVD mortality attributable to ambient temperature using daily data from 15 cities in China for years 2007-2013, including nearly two million CVD deaths. A high temperature variability between and within cities can be observed (figure 1). They used sophisticated statistical methodology to account for the complex temperature-mortality relationship; first, distributed lag non-linear models combined with quasi-Poisson regression to obtain city-specific estimates, taking into account temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure; then, a meta-analysis to obtain the pooled estimates. The results confirm the winter excess mortality as reported by the Eurowinter3 and other4 groups, but they show that the magnitude of ambient temperature.

Little effect of seasonal constraints on population genetic structure in eusocial paper wasps.

Climate has long been suggested to affect population genetic structures of eusocial insect societies. For instance, Hamilton [Journal of Theoretical Biology7 (1964) 17] discusses whether temperate and tropical eusocial insects may show differences in population-level genetic structure and viscosity, and how this might relate to differences in the degree of synchrony in their life cycles or modes of nest founding. Despite the importance of Hamilton's 1964 papers, this specific idea has not been tested in actual populations of wasps, probably due to the paucity of studies on tropical species. Here, we compare colony and population genetic structures in two species of primitively eusocial paper wasps with contrasting ecologies: the tropical species Polistes canadensis and the temperate species P. dominulus. Our results provide important clarifications of Hamilton's discussion. Specifically, we show that the genetic structures of the temperate and tropical species were very similar, indicating that seasonality does not greatly affect population viscosity or inbreeding. For both species, the high genetic differentiation between nests suggests strong selection at the nest level to live with relatives, whereas low population viscosity and low genetic differentiation between nest aggregations might reflect balancing selection to disperse, avoiding competition with relatives. Overall, our study suggests no prevalence of seasonal constraints of the life cycle in affecting the population genetic structure of eusocial paper wasps. These conclusions are likely to apply also to other primitively eusocial insects, such as halictine bees. They also highlight how selection for a kin structure that promotes altruism can override potential effects of ecology in eusocial insects.

A Population-Based Model to Consider the Effect of Seasonal Variation on Serum 25(OH)D and Vitamin D Status.

Background. We elaborated a model that predicts the centiles of the 25(OH)D distribution taking into account seasonal variation. Methods. Data from two Swiss population-based studies were used to generate (CoLaus) and validate (Bus Santé) the model. Serum 25(OH)D was measured by ultra high pressure LC-MS/MS and immunoassay. Linear regression models on square-root transformed 25(OH)D values were used to predict centiles of the 25(OH)D distribution. Distribution functions of the observations from the replication set predicted with the model were inspected to assess replication. Results. Overall, 4,912 and 2,537 Caucasians were included in original and replication sets, respectively. Mean (SD) 25(OH)D, age, BMI, and % of men were 47.5 (22.1) nmol/L, 49.8 (8.5) years, 25.6 (4.1) kg/m(2), and 49.3% in the original study. The best model included gender, BMI, and sin-cos functions of measurement day. Sex- and BMI-specific 25(OH)D centile curves as a function of measurement date were generated. The model estimates any centile of the 25(OH)D distribution for given values of sex, BMI, and date and the quantile corresponding to a 25(OH)D measurement. Conclusions. We generated and validated centile curves of 25(OH)D in the general adult Caucasian population. These curves can help rank vitamin D centile independently of when 25(OH)D is measured.

Oseltamivir in seasonal, avian H5N1 and pandemic 2009 A/H1N1 influenza: pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics.

Oseltamivir is the ester-type prodrug of the neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir carboxylate. It has been shown to be an effective treatment for both seasonal influenza and the recent pandemic 2009 A/H1N1 influenza, reducing both the duration and severity of the illness. It is also effective when used preventively. This review aims to describe the current knowledge of the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics of this agent, and to address the issue of possible therapeutic drug monitoring. According to the currently available literature, the pharmacokinetics of oseltamivir carboxylate after oral administration of oseltamivir are characterized by mean ± SD bioavailability of 79 ± 12%, apparent clearance of 25.3 ± 7.0 L/h, an elimination half-life of 7.4 ± 2.5 hours and an apparent terminal volume of distribution of 267 ± 122 L. A maximum plasma concentration of 342 ± 83 μg/L, a time to reach the maximum plasma concentration of 4.2 ± 1.1 hours, a trough plasma concentration of 168 ± 32 μg/L and an area under the plasma concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 hours of 6110 ± 1330 μg · h/L for a 75 mg twice-daily regimen were derived from literature data. The apparent clearance is highly correlated with renal function, hence the dosage needs to be adjusted in proportion to the glomerular filtration rate. Interpatient variability is moderate (28% in apparent clearance and 46% in the apparent central volume of distribution); there is no indication of significant erratic or limited absorption in given patient subgroups. The in vitro pharmacodynamics of oseltamivir carboxylate reveal wide variation in the concentration producing 50% inhibition of influenza A and B strains (range 0.17-44 μg/L). A formal correlation between systemic exposure to oseltamivir carboxylate and clinical antiviral activity or tolerance in influenza patients has not yet been demonstrated; thus no formal therapeutic or toxic range can be proposed. The pharmacokinetic parameters of oseltamivir carboxylate after oseltamivir administration (bioavailability, apparent clearance and the volume of distribution) are fairly predictable in healthy subjects, with little interpatient variability outside the effect of renal function in all patients and bodyweight in children. Thus oseltamivir carboxylate exposure can probably be controlled with sufficient accuracy by thorough dosage adjustment according to patient characteristics. However, there is a lack of clinical study data on naturally infected patients. In addition, the therapeutic margin of oseltamivir carboxylate is poorly defined. The usefulness of systematic therapeutic drug monitoring in patients therefore appears to be questionable; however, studies are still needed to extend the knowledge to particular subgroups of patients or dosage regimens.

Effect of Lactobacillus paracasei ST11 on a nasal provocation test with grass pollen in allergic rhinitis.

Cite this as: J. Wassenberg, S. Nutten, R. Audran, N. Barbier, V. Aubert, J. Moulin, A. Mercenier and F. Spertini, Clinical & Experimental Allergy, 2011 (41) 565-573. SUMMARY: Background Probiotics have been associated with prevention and improvement of symptoms in atopic diseases such as atopic dermatitis. However, few studies exist that document their efficacy for upper airways allergies such as allergic rhinitis. Objective To investigate the effect of short-term oral administration of Lactobacillus paracasei ST11 on a nasal provocation test (NPT) with grass pollen. Methods Thirty-one adult volunteers with allergic rhinitis were enrolled in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study, based on two 4-week cross-over periods of product consumption (ST11-fermented milk vs. placebo), separated by a wash-out period of 6-8 weeks. Objective and subjective clinical parameters of NPT as well as systemic and nasal immunological parameters were compared between the two treatment periods (registration number: NCT 011 50 253). Results Subjects that received ST11-fermented milk had lower nasal congestion than subjects under placebo (visual analogical scale; P<0.05). Nasal pruritus followed the same trend. However, no significant change in combined nasal reaction threshold was observed between the two periods. IL-5 secretion by peripheral blood mononuclear cells and serum allergen-specific IgG4 were significantly lower in ST11-fermented milk group compared to placebo group. IL-8 and IL-10 secretion followed the same trend. Conclusion and Clinical Relevance Short-term treatment with ST11-fermented milk before NPT significantly improved a clinical marker of NPT (subjective nasal congestion) and down-regulated systemic immune markers (IL-5 from peripheral blood mononuclear cells and serum IgG4). These data strongly suggest that probiotics may down modulate key parameters of allergic rhinitis and warrant future evaluation in seasonal trials.

Comparison of two oral probiotic preparations in a randomized crossover trial highlights a potentially beneficial effect of Lactobacillus paracasei NCC2461 in patients with allergic rhinitis.

BACKGROUND: There is promising but conflicting evidence to recommend the addition of probiotics to foods for prevention and treatment of allergy. Based on previous studies with fermented milk containing Lactobacillus paracasei NCC2461, we aimed to compare the effect of a powder form of the latter probiotic with the effect of a blend of Lactobacillus acidophilus ATCC SD5221 and Bifidobacterium lactis ATCC SD5219 in patients with allergic rhinitis. METHODS: A double-blind, randomized, cross-over study, involving 31 adults with allergic rhinitis to grass pollen, was performed outside the grass pollen season (registration number: NCT01233154). Subjects received each product for 4-weeks in two phases separated by a wash-out period of 6 to 8 weeks. A nasal provocation test was performed before and after each 4-week product intake period, and outcome parameters (objective and subjective clinical symptoms; immune parameters) were measured during and/or 24 hours after the test. RESULTS: Out of the 31 subject enrolled, 28 completed the study. While no effect was observed on nasal congestion (primary outcome), treatment with NCC2461 significantly decreased nasal pruritus (determined by VAS), and leukocytes in nasal fluid samples, enhanced IL-5, IL-13 and IL-10 production by peripheral blood mononuclear cells in an allergen specific manner and tended to decrease IL-5 secretion in nasal fluid, in contrast to treatment with the blend of L. acidophilus and B. lactis. CONCLUSIONS: Despite short-term consumption, NCC2461 was able to reduce subjective nasal pruritus while not affecting nasal congestion in adults suffering from grass pollen allergic rhinitis. The associated decrease in nasal fluid leukocytes and IL-5 secretion, and the enhanced IL-10 secretion in an allergen specific manner may partly explain the decrease in nasal pruritus. However, somewhat unexpected systemic immune changes were also noted. These data support the study of NCC2461 consumption in a seasonal clinical trial to further demonstrate its potentially beneficial effect.