Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown

Nasal immunization of mice with human papillomavirus type 16 virus-like particles elicits neutralizing antibodies in mucosal secretions.

To specifically induce a mucosal antibody response to purified human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16) virus-like particles (VLP), we immunized female BALB/c mice orally, intranasally, and/or parenterally and evaluated cholera toxin (CT) as a mucosal adjuvant. Anti-HPV16 VLP immunoglobulin G (IgG) and IgA titers in serum, saliva, and genital secretions were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Systemic immunizations alone induced HPV16 VLP-specific IgG in serum and, to a lesser extent, in genital secretions but no secretory IgA. Oral immunization, even in the presence of CT, was inefficient. However, three nasal immunizations with 5 microgram of VLP given at weekly intervals to anesthetized mice induced high (>10(4)) and long-lasting (>15 weeks) titers of anti-HPV16 VLP antibodies in all samples, including IgA and IgG in saliva and genital secretions. CT enhanced the VLP-specific antibody response 10-fold in serum and to a lesser extent in saliva and genital secretions. Nasal immunization of conscious mice compared to anesthetized mice was inefficient and correlated with the absence of uptake of a marker into the lung. However, a 1-microgram VLP systemic priming followed by two 5-microgram VLP intranasal boosts in conscious mice induced both HPV16 VLP-specific IgG and IgA in secretions, although the titers were lower than in anesthetized mice given three intranasal immunizations. Antibodies in serum, saliva, and genital secretions of immunized mice were strongly neutralizing in vitro (50% neutralization with ELISA titers of 65 to 125). The mucosal and systemic/mucosal HPV16 VLP immunization protocols that induced significant titers of neutralizing IgG and secretory IgA in mucosal secretions in mice may be relevant to genital HPV VLP-based human vaccine trials.