Risk-based modelling of diffuse land use impacts from rural landscapes upon salmonid fry abundance

Research has demonstrated that landscape or watershed scale processes can influence instream aquatic ecosystems, in terms of the impacts of delivery of fine sediment, solutes and organic matter. Testing such impacts upon populations of organisms (i.e. at the catchment scale) has not proven straightforward and differences have emerged in the conclusions reached. This is: (1) partly because different studies have focused upon different scales of enquiry; but also (2) because the emphasis upon upstream land cover has rarely addressed the extent to which such land covers are hydrologically connected, and hence able to deliver diffuse pollution, to the drainage network However, there is a third issue. In order to develop suitable hydrological models, we need to conceptualise the process cascade. To do this, we need to know what matters to the organism being impacted by the hydrological system, such that we can identify which processes need to be modelled. Acquiring such knowledge is not easy, especially for organisms like fish that might occupy very different locations in the river over relatively short periods of time. However, and inevitably, hydrological modellers have started by building up piecemeal the aspects of the problem that we think matter to fish. Herein, we report two developments: (a) for the case of sediment associated diffuse pollution from agriculture, a risk-based modelling framework, SCIMAP, has been developed, which is distinct because it has an explicit focus upon hydrological connectivity; and (b) we use spatially distributed ecological data to infer the processes and the associated process parameters that matter to salmonid fry. We apply the model to spatially distributed salmon and fry data from the River Eden, Cumbria, England. The analysis shows, quite surprisingly, that arable land covers are relatively unimportant as drivers of fry abundance. What matters most is intensive pasture, a land cover that could be associated with a number of stressors on salmonid fry (e.g. pesticides, fine sediment) and which allows us to identify a series of risky field locations, where this land cover is readily connected to the river system by overland flow. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A genetic isolation gradient of populations of the Balearic green toad (Bufo balearicus) follows rising eastward fragmentation of the rural landscapes on the island of Menorca.

We present the first approach to the genetic diversity and structure of the Balearic toad (Bufo balearicus Boettger, 1880) for the island of Menorca. Forty-one individ- uals from 21 localities were analyzed for ten microsatellite loci. We used geo-refer- enced individual multilocus genotypes and a model-based clustering method for the inference of the number of populations and of the spatial location of genetic dis- continuities between those populations.¦Only six of the microsatellites analyzed were polymorphic. We revealed a northwest- ern area inhabited by a single population with several well-connected localities and another set of populations in the southeast that includes a few unconnected small units with genetically significant differences among them as well as with the individ- uals from the northwest of the island. The observed fragmentation may be explained by shifts from agricultural to tourism practices that have been taking place on the island of Menorca since the 1960s. The abandonment of rural activities in favor of urbanization and concomitant service areas has mostly affected the southeast of the island and is currently threatening the overall geographic connectivity between the different farming areas of the island that are inhabited by the Balearic toad.

High fat versus high carbohydrate nutritional supplementation: a one year trial in stunted rural Gambian children.

OBJECTIVE: The study tests the hypothesis that a low daily fat intake may induce a negative fat balance and impair catch-up growth in stunted children between 3 and 9y of age. DESIGN: Randomized case-control study. SETTING: Three rural villages of the West Kiang District, The Gambia. SUBJECTS: Three groups of 30 stunted but not wasted children (height for age z-score < or = -2.0, weight for height z-score > or = -2.0) 3-9 y of age were selected by anthropometric survey. Groups were matched for age, sex, village, degree of stunting and season. INTERVENTION: Two groups were randomly assigned to be supplemented five days a week for one year with either a high fat (n = 29) or a high carbohydrate biscuit (n = 30) each containing approximately 1600 kJ. The third group was a non supplemented control group (n = 29). Growth, nutritional status, dietary intake, resting energy expenditure and morbidity were compared. RESULTS: Neither the high fat nor the high carbohydrate supplement had an effect on weight or height gain. The high fat supplement did slightly increase adipose tissue mass. There was no effect of supplementation on resting energy expenditure or morbidity. In addition, the annual growth rate was not associated with a morbidity score. CONCLUSIONS: Results show that neither a high fat nor a high carbohydrate supplement given during 12 months to stunted Gambian children induced catch-up growth. The authors suggest that an adverse effect of the environment on catch-up growth persists despite the nutritional interventions.

Ecologie d'une population de Crocidura russula en milieu rural montagnard (Insectivora, Soricidae)

Crocidura russula is restricted to the vicinity of human dwellings in the northern parts of its range and in the mountain regions of Central and Western Europe. In order to better understand the causes of such a distribution, a population was studied in a rural mountain habitat (750 m above sea level), where the species was found almost exclusively in the neighbourhood of human dwellings. The study was conducted on a 2000 m2 area, over a period of 20 months, by live-trapping and radioactive tracking. The abundance, the local distribution and the behaviour of the shrews vary greatly throughout the year. In summer, they chiefly inhabit areas with a dense herbaceous cover or shruby vegetation; they are mainly active at ground level, in the litter. In autumn, changes in the environmental conditions (lowering of temperatures, subsidence of the herbaceous vegetation, presence of snow) create important energetic problems. At that time, the shrews gradually become more active around and inside compost-heaps and buildings. The microclimate of such environments is mild and prey are numerous. The winter population is reduced (reaching its lowest level in late winter) and consists only of shrews frequenting these sites. The observed spatial distribution is the result of the energetic dependence of the wintering shrews on human dwellings and their surroundings. This dependence is probably related to the physiological characteristics of the species. In the prospected region, Crocidura russula is the only shrew which regularly takes advantage of man-made habitats; the maintenance of the species in the rural mountain enviroment is probably favoured by the social organization of the populations in winter. The other native Soricids are observed only occasionaly int he neighbourhood of human dwellings.

Quantifying rates of landscape evolution and tectonic processes by thermochronology and numerical modeling of crustal heat transport using PECUBE

PECUBE is a three-dimensional thermal-kinematic code capable of solving the heat production-diffusion-advection equation under a temporally varying surface boundary condition. It was initially developed to assess the effects of time-varying surface topography (relief) on low-temperature thermochronological datasets. Thermochronometric ages are predicted by tracking the time-temperature histories of rock-particles ending up at the surface and by combining these with various age-prediction models. In the decade since its inception, the PECUBE code has been under continuous development as its use became wider and addressed different tectonic-geomorphic problems. This paper describes several major recent improvements in the code, including its integration with an inverse-modeling package based on the Neighborhood Algorithm, the incorporation of fault-controlled kinematics, several different ways to address topographic and drainage change through time, the ability to predict subsurface (tunnel or borehole) data, prediction of detrital thermochronology data and a method to compare these with observations, and the coupling with landscape-evolution (or surface-process) models. Each new development is described together with one or several applications, so that the reader and potential user can clearly assess and make use of the capabilities of PECUBE. We end with describing some developments that are currently underway or should take place in the foreseeable future. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A concentric analysis of the impact of urbanization on the threatened European tree frog in an agricultural landscape

Pond-breeding amphibians are affected by site-specific factors and regional and landscape-scale patterns of land use. Recent anthropogenic landscape modifications (drainage, agriculture intensification, larger road networks, and increased traffic) affect species by reducing the suitable habitat area and fragmenting remaining populations. Using a robust concentric approach based on permutation tests, we evaluated the impact of recent landscape changes on the presence of the endangered European tree frog (Hyla arborea.) in wetlands. We analyzed the frequency of 1 traffic and 14 land-use indices at 20 circular ranges (from 100-m up to 2-km radii) around 76 ponds identified in western Switzerland. Urban areas and road surfaces had a strong adverse effect on tree frog presence even at relatively great distances (from 100 m up to 1 km). When traffic measurements were considered instead of road surfaces, the effect increased, suggesting a negative impact due to a vehicle-induced effect. Altogether, our results indicate that urbanization and traffic must be taken into account when pond creation is an option in conservation management plans, as is the case for the European tree frog in western Switzerland. We conclude that our easy-to-use and robust concentric method of analysis can successfully assist managers in identifying potential sites for pond creation, where probability of the presence of tree frogs is maximized.

Modelling the distribution of bats in relation to landscape structure in a temperate mountain environment

1. Landscape modification is often considered the principal cause of population decline in many bat species. Thus, schemes for bat conservation rely heavily on knowledge about species-landscape relationships. So far, however, few studies have quantified the possible influence of landscape structure on large-scale spatial patterns in bat communities. 2. This study presents quantitative models that use landscape structure to predict (i) spatial patterns in overall community composition and (ii) individual species' distributions through canonical correspondence analysis and generalized linear models, respectively. A geographical information system (GIS) was then used to draw up maps of (i) overall community patterns and (ii) distribution of potential species' habitats. These models relied on field data from the Swiss Jura mountains. 3. Fight descriptors of landscape structure accounted for 30% of the variation in bat community composition. For some species, more than 60% of the variance in distribution could be explained by landscape structure. Elevation, forest or woodland cover, lakes and suburbs, were the most frequent predictors. 4. This study shows that community composition in bats is related to landscape structure through species-specific relationships to resources. Due to their nocturnal activities and the difficulties of remote identification, a comprehensive bat census is rarely possible, and we suggest that predictive modelling of the type described here provides an indispensable conservation tool.

Lack of metabolic and behavioral adaptations in rural Gambian men with low body mass index.

Energy expenditure was measured by means of a respiratory chamber in two groups of adult rural Gambian men. The first group (n = 29) had a low body mass index (BMI; in kg/m2) < 18.5), whereas the control group (n = 29) had a higher BMI (> 22). This study shows that the energy expenditure of Gambian men with low BMI is not different from that of Gambian men with normal BMI when the results are normalized for fat-free mass or for weight by analysis of covariance. In Gambian men the nutritional status thus does not seem to affect energy metabolism notably. No differences in respiratory quotient, diet-induced thermogenesis, net work efficiency, spontaneous physical activity, heart rate, or urinary catecholamine excretion were observed between the two groups. It is, however, interesting to note that the basal metabolic rate of Gambian men, regardless of their nutritional status, is approximately 10% (range 4-12% depending on the reference value used) lower than that predicted for individuals living in industrialized countries.

History matters: relating paths and rates of landscape change to butterfly species decline

Western European landscapes have drastically changed since the 1950s, with agricultural intensifications and the spread of urban settlements considered the most important drivers of this land-use/land-cover change. Losses of habitat for fauna and flora have been a direct consequence of this development. In the present study, we relate butterfly occurrence to land-use/land-cover changes over five decades between 1951 and 2000. The study area covers the entire Swiss territory. The 10 explanatory variables originate from agricultural statistics and censuses. Both state as well as rate was used as explanatory variables. Species distribution data were obtained from natural history collections. We selected eight butterfly species: four species occur on wetlands and four occur on dry grasslands. We used cluster analysis to track land-use/land-cover changes and to group communes based on similar trajectories of change. Generalized linear models were applied to identify factors that were significantly correlated with the persistence or disappearance of butterfly species. Results showed that decreasing agricultural areas and densities of farms with more than 10 ha of cultivated land are significantly related with wetland species decline, and increasing densities of livestock seem to have favored disappearance of dry grassland species. Moreover, we show that species declines are not only dependent on land-use/land-cover states but also on the rates of change; that is, the higher the transformation rate from small to large farms, the higher the loss of dry grassland species. We suggest that more attention should be paid to the rates of landscape change as feasible drivers of species change and derive some management suggestions.

Landscape genetics of the Alpine newt (Mesotriton alpestris) inferred from a strip-based approach

Habitat destruction and fragmentation are known to strongly affect dispersal by altering the quality of the environment between populations. As a consequence, lower landscape connectivity is expected to enhance extinction risks through a decrease in gene flow and the resulting negative effects of genetic drift, accumulation of deleterious mutations and inbreeding depression. Such phenomena are particularly harmful for amphibian species, characterized by disjunct breeding habitats. The dispersal behaviour of amphibians being poorly understood, it is crucial to develop new tools, allowing us to determine the influence of landscape connectivity on the persistence of populations. In this study, we developed a new landscape genetics approach that aims at identifying land-uses affecting genetic differentiation, without a priori assumptions about associated ecological costs. We surveyed genetic variation at seven microsatellite loci for 19 Alpine newt (Mesotriton alpestris) populations in western Switzerland. Using strips of varying widths that define a dispersal corridor between pairs of populations, we were able to identify land-uses that act as dispersal barriers (i.e. urban areas) and corridors (i.e. forests). Our results suggest that habitat destruction and landscape fragmentation might in the near future affect common species such as M. alpestris. In addition, by identifying relevant landscape variables influencing population structure without unrealistic assumptions about dispersal, our method offers a simple and flexible tool of investigation as an alternative to least-cost models and other approaches.

Identifying genetic signatures of selection in a non-model species, alpine gentian (Gentiana nivalis L.), using a landscape genetic approach

It is generally accepted that most plant populations are locally adapted. Yet, understanding how environmental forces give rise to adaptive genetic variation is a challenge in conservation genetics and crucial to the preservation of species under rapidly changing climatic conditions. Environmental variation, phylogeographic history, and population demographic processes all contribute to spatially structured genetic variation, however few current models attempt to separate these confounding effects. To illustrate the benefits of using a spatially-explicit model for identifying potentially adaptive loci, we compared outlier locus detection methods with a recently-developed landscape genetic approach. We analyzed 157 loci from samples of the alpine herb Gentiana nivalis collected across the European Alps. Principle coordinates of neighbor matrices (PCNM), eigenvectors that quantify multi-scale spatial variation present in a data set, were incorporated into a landscape genetic approach relating AFLP frequencies with 23 environmental variables. Four major findings emerged. 1) Fifteen loci were significantly correlated with at least one predictor variable (R (adj) (2) > 0.5). 2) Models including PCNM variables identified eight more potentially adaptive loci than models run without spatial variables. 3) When compared to outlier detection methods, the landscape genetic approach detected four of the same loci plus 11 additional loci. 4) Temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were the three major environmental factors driving potentially adaptive genetic variation in G. nivalis. Techniques presented in this paper offer an efficient method for identifying potentially adaptive genetic variation and associated environmental forces of selection, providing an important step forward for the conservation of non-model species under global change.