Abortion trends 1990-1999 in a Swiss region and determinants of abortion recurrence.

OBJECTIVE: To assess age- and nationality-specific trends in abortion rates over the last decade, and to describe women's characteristics, identifying risk factors for repeated abortion. METHODS: From 1990-1999, the Health Department of Canton Vaud (Switzerland) received 13'857 abortion requests from residents aged 14-49. Population data were obtained to compute rates. RESULTS: Both the number of abortions (1400 annually) as well as their rate (8.9 per thousand women [95% confidence interval (CI) 7.3-10.5]) were stable over the decade in question. The rate of abortion for foreign women, especially from ex-Yugoslavia and Africa, was twice that for Swiss women. Half of the requests came from single women, 43% had a low education level, and half were childless. The main reason for requesting termination of pregnancy was psychosocial (93%). The mean gestational age was 7.7 weeks (SD +/- 2.3), but 96% of requests were submitted before 12 weeks. Sixty-three percent of women reported that they had used no contraception, 36% the condom and 17% the pill. Among requests, the adjusted risk of repeated abortion (22% of abortion candidates) was greater among divorced/separated/widowed women (odds ratio [OR] 1.9 [95% CI 1.5-2.4]), unemployed women (OR 1.8 [95% CI 1.5-2.1]), and those who had not attended university (OR 1.6 [95% CI 1.1-2.2]). CONCLUSIONS: Although Swiss law only permitted abortion under strict conditions, this procedure was widely available in Vaud, which nevertheless has one of the lowest rates worldwide. Efforts must be intensified to ensure universal access to family planning services, especially for foreign women and adolescents. Professionals should also target "repeaters" to provide personalised counselling.

Predicting recurrence after unprovoked venous thromboembolism: prospective validation of the updated Vienna Prediction Model.

The updated Vienna Prediction Model for estimating recurrence risk after an unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) has been developed to identify individuals at low risk for VTE recurrence in whom anticoagulation (AC) therapy may be stopped after 3 months. We externally validated the accuracy of the model to predict recurrent VTE in a prospective multicenter cohort of 156 patients aged ≥65 years with acute symptomatic unprovoked VTE who had received 3 to 12 months of AC. Patients with a predicted 12-month risk within the lowest quartile based on the updated Vienna Prediction Model were classified as low risk. The risk of recurrent VTE did not differ between low- vs higher-risk patients at 12 months (13% vs 10%; P = .77) and 24 months (15% vs 17%; P = 1.0). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting VTE recurrence was 0.39 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.25-0.52) at 12 months and 0.43 (95% CI, 0.31-0.54) at 24 months. In conclusion, in elderly patients with unprovoked VTE who have stopped AC, the updated Vienna Prediction Model does not discriminate between patients who develop recurrent VTE and those who do not. This study was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00973596.

Association between smoking and recurrence of venous thromboembolism and bleeding in elderly patients with past acute venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: While the association between smoking and arterial cardiovascular events has been well established, the association between smoking and venous thromboembolism (VTE) remains controversial. OBJECTIVES: To assess the association between smoking and the risk of recurrent VTE and bleeding in patients who have experienced acute VTE. PATIENTS/METHODS: This study is part of a prospective Swiss multicenter cohort that included patients aged ≥65years with acute VTE. Three groups were defined according to smoking status: never, former and current smokers. The primary outcome was the time to a first symptomatic, objectively confirmed VTE recurrence. Secondary outcomes were the time to a first major and clinically relevant non-major bleeding. Associations between smoking status and outcomes were analysed using proportional hazard models for the subdistribution of a competing risk of death. RESULTS: Among 988 analysed patients, 509 (52%) had never smoked, 403 (41%) were former smokers, and 76 (8%) current smokers. After a median follow-up of 29.6months, we observed a VTE recurrence rate of 4.9 (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.7-6.4) per 100 patient-years for never smokers, 6.6 (95% CI 5.1-8.6) for former smokers, and 5.2 (95% CI 2.6-10.5) for current smokers. Compared to never smokers, we found no association between current smoking and VTE recurrence (adjusted sub-hazard ratio [SHR] 1.05, 95% CI 0.49-2.28), major bleeding (adjusted SHR 0.59, 95% CI 0.25-1.39), and clinically relevant non-major bleeding (adjusted SHR 1.21, 95% CI 0.73-2.02). CONCLUSIONS: In this multicentre prospective cohort study, we found no association between smoking status and VTE recurrence or bleeding in elderly patients with VTE.