A Bayesian network approach to the database serch problem in criminal proceedings

Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.

Interactive Epistemology and Reasoning: On the Foundations of Game Theory

Game theory describes and analyzes strategic interaction. It is usually distinguished between static games, which are strategic situations in which the players choose only once as well as simultaneously, and dynamic games, which are strategic situations involving sequential choices. In addition, dynamic games can be further classified according to perfect and imperfect information. Indeed, a dynamic game is said to exhibit perfect information, whenever at any point of the game every player has full informational access to all choices that have been conducted so far. However, in the case of imperfect information some players are not fully informed about some choices. Game-theoretic analysis proceeds in two steps. Firstly, games are modelled by so-called form structures which extract and formalize the significant parts of the underlying strategic interaction. The basic and most commonly used models of games are the normal form, which rather sparsely describes a game merely in terms of the players' strategy sets and utilities, and the extensive form, which models a game in a more detailed way as a tree. In fact, it is standard to formalize static games with the normal form and dynamic games with the extensive form. Secondly, solution concepts are developed to solve models of games in the sense of identifying the choices that should be taken by rational players. Indeed, the ultimate objective of the classical approach to game theory, which is of normative character, is the development of a solution concept that is capable of identifying a unique choice for every player in an arbitrary game. However, given the large variety of games, it is not at all certain whether it is possible to device a solution concept with such universal capability. Alternatively, interactive epistemology provides an epistemic approach to game theory of descriptive character. This rather recent discipline analyzes the relation between knowledge, belief and choice of game-playing agents in an epistemic framework. The description of the players' choices in a given game relative to various epistemic assumptions constitutes the fundamental problem addressed by an epistemic approach to game theory. In a general sense, the objective of interactive epistemology consists in characterizing existing game-theoretic solution concepts in terms of epistemic assumptions as well as in proposing novel solution concepts by studying the game-theoretic implications of refined or new epistemic hypotheses. Intuitively, an epistemic model of a game can be interpreted as representing the reasoning of the players. Indeed, before making a decision in a game, the players reason about the game and their respective opponents, given their knowledge and beliefs. Precisely these epistemic mental states on which players base their decisions are explicitly expressible in an epistemic framework. In this PhD thesis, we consider an epistemic approach to game theory from a foundational point of view. In Chapter 1, basic game-theoretic notions as well as Aumann's epistemic framework for games are expounded and illustrated. Also, Aumann's sufficient conditions for backward induction are presented and his conceptual views discussed. In Chapter 2, Aumann's interactive epistemology is conceptually analyzed. In Chapter 3, which is based on joint work with Conrad Heilmann, a three-stage account for dynamic games is introduced and a type-based epistemic model is extended with a notion of agent connectedness. Then, sufficient conditions for backward induction are derived. In Chapter 4, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa, a topological approach to interactive epistemology is initiated. In particular, the epistemic-topological operator limit knowledge is defined and some implications for games considered. In Chapter 5, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa and Andrés Perea, Aumann's impossibility theorem on agreeing to disagree is revisited and weakened in the sense that possible contexts are provided in which agents can indeed agree to disagree.

Expert clinical reasoning and pain assessment in mechanically ventilated patients: A descriptive study.

BACKGROUND: Pain assessment in mechanically ventilated patients is challenging, because nurses need to decode pain behaviour, interpret pain scores, and make appropriate decisions. This clinical reasoning process is inherent to advanced nursing practice, but is poorly understood. A better understanding of this process could contribute to improved pain assessment and management. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe the indicators that influence expert nurses' clinical reasoning when assessing pain in critically ill nonverbal patients. METHODS: This descriptive observational study was conducted in the adult intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary referral hospital in Western Switzerland. A purposive sample of expert nurses, caring for nonverbal ventilated patients who received sedation and analgesia, were invited to participate in the study. Data were collected in "real life" using recorded think-aloud combined with direct non-participant observation and brief interviews. Data were analysed using deductive and inductive content analyses using a theoretical framework related to clinical reasoning and pain. RESULTS: Seven expert nurses with an average of 7.85 (±3.1) years of critical care experience participated in the study. The patients had respiratory distress (n=2), cardiac arrest (n=2), sub-arachnoid bleeding (n=1), and multi-trauma (n=2). A total of 1344 quotes in five categories were identified. Patients' physiological stability was the principal indicator for making decision in relation to pain management. Results also showed that it is a permanent challenge for nurses to discriminate situations requiring sedation from situations requiring analgesia. Expert nurses mainly used working knowledge and patterns to anticipate and prevent pain. CONCLUSIONS: Patient's clinical condition is important for making decision about pain in critically ill nonverbal patients. The concept of pain cannot be assessed in isolation and its assessment should take the patient's clinical stability and sedation into account. Further research is warranted to confirm these results.

Opinions and attitudes of a sample of Swiss physicians about physical activity promotion in a primary care setting

Little is known about the opinions, beliefs and behavior of Swiss physicians regarding physical activity (PA) promotion in a primary care setting. A qualitative study was performed with semi-structured interviews. We purposively recruited and interviewed 16 physicians in the French speaking part of Switzerland. Their statements and ideas regarding the promotion of PA in a primary care setting were transcribed and synthesized from the tape recorded interviews. Les opinions, les représentations et les comportements des médecins suisses en matière de promotion de l'activité physique au cabinet médical restent largement méconnus en Suisse. Une étude qualitative a été réalisée au moyen d'entretiens semi-structurés. Nous avons intentionnellement recruté et interviewé 16 médecins en Suisse romande. Leurs opinions et attitudes concernant la promotion de l'activité physique au cabinet médical ont été transcrites et synthétisées à partir de l'enregistrement de ces entretiens.

Caregiver's interpret infants' early gestures based on shared knowledge about referents

Gestures are the first forms of conventional communication that young children develop in order to intentionally convey a specific message. However, at first, infants rarely communicate successfully with their gestures, prompting caregivers to interpret them. Although the role of caregivers in early communication development has been examined, little is known about how caregivers attribute a specific communicative function to infants' gestures. In this study, we argue that caregivers rely on the knowledge about the referent that is shared with infants in order to interpret what communicative function infants wish to convey with their gestures. We videotaped interactions from six caregiver-infant dyads playing with toys when infants were 8, 10, 12, 14, and 16 months old. We coded infants' gesture production and we determined whether caregivers interpreted those gestures as conveying a clear communicative function or not; we also coded whether infants used objects according to their conventions of use as a measure of shared knowledge about the referent. Results revealed an association between infants' increasing knowledge of object use and maternal interpretations of infants' gestures as conveying a clear communicative function. Our findings emphasize the importance of shared knowledge in shaping infants' emergent communicative skills.

Controversies about a common etiology for eating and mood disorders.

Obesity and depression represent a growing health concern worldwide. For many years, basic science and medicine have considered obesity as a metabolic illness, while depression was classified a psychiatric disorder. Despite accumulating evidence suggesting that obesity and depression may share commonalities, the causal link between eating and mood disorders remains to be fully understood. This etiology is highly complex, consisting of multiple environmental and genetic risk factors that interact with each other. In this review, we sought to summarize the preclinical and clinical evidence supporting a common etiology for eating and mood disorders, with a particular emphasis on signaling pathways involved in the maintenance of energy balance and mood stability, among which orexigenic and anorexigenic neuropeptides, metabolic factors, stress responsive hormones, cytokines, and neurotrophic factors.

"MIATA"-minimal information about T cell assays.

Immunotherapy, especially therapeutic vaccination, has a great deal of potential in the treatment of cancer and certain infectious diseases such as HIV (Allison et al., 2006; Fauci et al., 2008; Feldmann and Steinman, 2005). Numerous vaccine candidates have been tested in patients with a variety of tumor types and chronic viral diseases. Often, the best way to assess the clinical potential of these vaccines is to monitor the induced T cell response, and yet there are currently no standards for reporting these results. This letter is an effort to address this problem.

What do we know about gliotransmitter release from astrocytes?

Astrocytes participate in information processing by actively modulating synaptic properties via gliotransmitter release. Various mechanisms of astrocytic release have been reported, including release from storage organelles via exocytosis and release from the cytosol via plasma membrane ion channels and pumps. It is still not fully clear which mechanisms operate under which conditions, but some of them, being Ca(2+)-regulated, may be physiologically relevant. The properties of Ca(2+)-dependent transmitter release via exocytosis or via ion channels are different and expected to produce different extracellular transmitter concentrations over time and to have distinct functional consequences. The molecular aspects of these two release pathways are still under active investigation. Here, we discuss the existing morphological and functional evidence in support of either of them. Transgenic mouse models, specific antagonists and localization studies have provided insight into regulated exocytosis, albeit not in a systematic fashion. Even more remains to be uncovered about the details of channel-mediated release. Better functional tools and improved ultrastructural approaches are needed in order fully to define specific modalities and effects of astrocytic gliotransmitter release pathways.

Des personnages érigés en narrateurs : les voix over chez Joseph L. Mankiewicz (A Letter to Three Wives, All about Eve et The Barefoot Contessa). Pour une approche énonciative du récit filmique

L'auteur analyse dans une perspective narratologique trois films de Joseph L. Mankiewicz réalisés entre 1949 et 1954 (A Letter to Three Wives, All about Eve et The Barefoot Contessa), afin d'observer les particularités qui résultent du recours à un ou plusieurs narrateurs (ou narratrices) s'exprimant en voix over. L'accent est mis sur les implications de l'organisation énonciative complexe de ces productions cinématographiques en termes de relation du film au spectateur et de représentation des rapports de genre. Ces études de cas permettent de nuancer certains acquis issus du champ des théories de l'énonciation. Dans ces films où les voix over sont proférées par des acteurs qui incarnent par ailleurs un personnage visualisé, certaines interactions sont observables - interprétées notamment comme des relations de pouvoir - entre le statut des narrateurs et le niveau diégétique. La matérialité sonore est prise en compte dans le cas particulier de Letter to Three Wives, où la voix se transforme en bruit. Cet « effet spécial » est l'occasion de discuter un modèle « impersonnel » de l'énonciation filmique qui intègre, tout en tenant compte de la dimension technologique de l'enregistrement sonore, le pouvoir fondamentalement humanisant des manifestations vocales.