The use of the likelihood ratio for evaluative and investigative purposes in comparative forensic handwriting examination

This paper extends previous research and discussion on the use of multivariate continuous data, which are about to become more prevalent in forensic science. As an illustrative example, attention is drawn here on the area of comparative handwriting examinations. Multivariate continuous data can be obtained in this field by analysing the contour shape of loop characters through Fourier analysis. This methodology, based on existing research in this area, allows one describe in detail the morphology of character contours throughout a set of variables. This paper uses data collected from female and male writers to conduct a comparative analysis of likelihood ratio based evidence assessment procedures in both, evaluative and investigative proceedings. While the use of likelihood ratios in the former situation is now rather well established (typically, in order to discriminate between propositions of authorship of a given individual versus another, unknown individual), focus on the investigative setting still remains rather beyond considerations in practice. This paper seeks to highlight that investigative settings, too, can represent an area of application for which the likelihood ratio can offer a logical support. As an example, the inference of gender of the writer of an incriminated handwritten text is forwarded, analysed and discussed in this paper. The more general viewpoint according to which likelihood ratio analyses can be helpful for investigative proceedings is supported here through various simulations. These offer a characterisation of the robustness of the proposed likelihood ratio methodology.

Binary classification of dyslipidemia from the waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index: a comparison of linear, logistic, and CART models.

BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.

Measuring an effect size from dichotomized data : contrasted results whether using a correlation or an odds-ratio

It is well known that dichotomizing continuous data has the effect to decrease statistical power when the goal is to test for a statistical association between two variables. Modern researchers however are focusing not only on statistical significance but also on an estimation of the "effect size" (i.e., the strength of association between the variables) to judge whether a significant association is also clinically relevant. In this article, we are interested in the consequences of dichotomizing continuous data on the value of an effect size in some classical settings. It turns out that the conclusions will not be the same whether using a correlation or an odds ratio to summarize the strength of association between the variables: Whereas the value of a correlation is typically decreased by a factor pi/2 after each dichotomization, the value of an odds ratio is at the same time raised to the power 2. From a descriptive statistical point of view, it is thus not clear whether dichotomizing continuous data leads to a decrease or to an increase in the effect size, as illustrated using a data set to investigate the relationship between motor and intellectual functions in children and adolescents

Adaptation to experimental alterations of the operational sex ratio in populations of Drosophila melanogaster.

Theory predicts that males adapt to sperm competition by increasing their investment in testis mass to transfer larger ejaculates. Experimental and comparative data support this prediction. Nevertheless, the relative importance of sperm competition in testis size evolution remains elusive, because experiments vary only sperm competition whereas comparative approaches confound it with other variables, in particular male mating rate. We addressed the relative importance of sperm competition and male mating rate by taking an experimental evolution approach. We subjected populations of Drosophila melanogaster to sex ratios of 1:1, 4:1, and 10:1 (female:male). Female bias decreased sperm competition but increased male mating rate and sperm depletion. After 28 generations of evolution, males from the 10:1 treatment had larger testes than males from other treatments. Thus, testis size evolved in response to mating rate and sperm depletion, not sperm competition. Furthermore, our experiment demonstrated that drift associated with sex ratio distortion limits adaptation; testis size only evolved in populations in which the effect of sex ratio bias on the effective population size had been compensated by increasing the numerical size. We discuss these results with respect to reproductive evolution, genetic drift in natural and experimental populations, and consequences of natural sex ratio distortion.

Improving the prediction of plant species distribution and community composition by adding edaphic to topo-climatic variables

Questions Soil properties have been widely shown to influence plant growth and distribution. However, the degree to which edaphic variables can improve models based on topo-climatic variables is still unclear. In this study, we tested the roles of seven edaphic variables, namely (1) pH; (2) the content of nitrogen and of (3) phosphorus; (4) silt; (5) sand; (6) clay and (7) carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, as predictors of species distribution models in an edaphically heterogeneous landscape. We also tested how the respective influence of these variables in the models is linked to different ecological and functional species characteristics. Location The Western Alps, Switzerland. Methods With four different modelling techniques, we built models for 115 plant species using topo-climatic variables alone and then topo-climatic variables plus each of the seven edaphic variables, one at a time. We evaluated the contribution of each edaphic variable by assessing the change in predictive power of the model. In a second step, we evaluated the importance of the two edaphic variables that yielded the largest increase in predictive power in one final set of models for each species. Third, we explored the change in predictive power and the importance of variables across plant functional groups. Finally, we assessed the influence of the edaphic predictors on the prediction of community composition by stacking the models for all species and comparing the predicted communities with the observed community. Results Among the set of edaphic variables studied, pH and nitrogen content showed the highest contributions to improvement of the predictive power of the models, as well as the predictions of community composition. When considering all topo-climatic and edaphic variables together, pH was the second most important variable after degree-days. The changes in model results caused by edaphic predictors were dependent on species characteristics. The predictions for the species that have a low specific leaf area, and acidophilic preferences, tolerating low soil pH and high humus content, showed the largest improvement by the addition of pH and nitrogen in the model. Conclusions pH was an important predictor variable for explaining species distribution and community composition of the mountain plants considered in our study. pH allowed more precise predictions for acidophilic species. This variable should not be neglected in the construction of species distribution models in areas with contrasting edaphic conditions.

Risk prediction of prevalent diabetes in a Swiss population using a weighted genetic score--the CoLaus Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Several susceptibility genes for type 2 diabetes have been discovered recently. Individually, these genes increase the disease risk only minimally. The goals of the present study were to determine, at the population level, the risk of diabetes in individuals who carry risk alleles within several susceptibility genes for the disease and the added value of this genetic information over the clinical predictors. METHODS: We constructed an additive genetic score using the most replicated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within 15 type 2 diabetes-susceptibility genes, weighting each SNP with its reported effect. We tested this score in the extensively phenotyped population-based cross-sectional CoLaus Study in Lausanne, Switzerland (n = 5,360), involving 356 diabetic individuals. RESULTS: The clinical predictors of prevalent diabetes were age, BMI, family history of diabetes, WHR, and triacylglycerol/HDL-cholesterol ratio. After adjustment for these variables, the risk of diabetes was 2.7 (95% CI 1.8-4.0, p = 0.000006) for individuals with a genetic score within the top quintile, compared with the bottom quintile. Adding the genetic score to the clinical covariates improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve slightly (from 0.86 to 0.87), yet significantly (p = 0.002). BMI was similar in these two extreme quintiles. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In this population, a simple weighted 15 SNP-based genetic score provides additional information over clinical predictors of prevalent diabetes. At this stage, however, the clinical benefit of this genetic information is limited.

Detection of testosterone administration based on the carbon isotope ratio profiling of endogenous steroids: international reference populations of professional soccer players.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The determination of the carbon isotope ratio in androgen metabolites has been previously shown to be a reliable, direct method to detect testosterone misuse in the context of antidoping testing. Here, the variability in the 13C/12C ratios in urinary steroids in a widely heterogeneous cohort of professional soccer players residing in different countries (Argentina, Italy, Japan, South Africa, Switzerland and Uganda) is examined. METHODS: Carbon isotope ratios of selected androgens in urine specimens were determined using gas chromatography/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC-C-IRMS). RESULTS: Urinary steroids in Italian and Swiss populations were found to be enriched in 13C relative to other groups, reflecting higher consumption of C3 plants in these two countries. Importantly, detection criteria based on the difference in the carbon isotope ratio of androsterone and pregnanediol for each population were found to be well below the established threshold value for positive cases. CONCLUSIONS: The results obtained with the tested diet groups highlight the importance of adapting the criteria if one wishes to increase the sensitivity of exogenous testosterone detection. In addition, confirmatory tests might be rendered more efficient by combining isotope ratio mass spectrometry with refined interpretation criteria for positivity and subject-based profiling of steroids.

Effort, reward and self-reported mental health: a simulation study on negative affectivity bias.

Background : In the present article, we propose an alternative method for dealing with negative affectivity (NA) biases in research, while investigating the association between a deleterious psychosocial environment at work and poor mental health. First, we investigated how strong NA must be to cause an observed correlation between the independent and dependent variables. Second, we subjectively assessed whether NA can have a large enough impact on a large enough number of subjects to invalidate the observed correlations between dependent and independent variables.Methods : We simulated 10,000 populations of 300 subjects each, using the marginal distribution of workers in an actual population that had answered the Siegrist's questionnaire on effort and reward imbalance (ERI) and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ).Results : The results of the present study suggested that simulated NA has a minimal effect on the mean scores for effort and reward. However, the correlations between the effort and reward imbalance (ERI) ratio and the GHQ score might be important, even in simulated populations with a limited NA.Conclusions : When investigating the relationship between the ERI ratio and the GHQ score, we suggest the following rules for the interpretation of the results: correlations with an explained variance of 5% and below should be considered with caution; correlations with an explained variance between 5% and 10% may result from NA, although this effect does not seem likely; and correlations with an explained variance of 10% and above are not likely to be the result of NA biases. [Authors]

Accuracy of Brain Multimodal Monitoring to Detect Cerebral Hypoperfusion After Traumatic Brain Injury.

OBJECTIVE:: To examine the accuracy of brain multimodal monitoring-consisting of intracranial pressure, brain tissue PO2, and cerebral microdialysis-in detecting cerebral hypoperfusion in patients with severe traumatic brain injury. DESIGN:: Prospective single-center study. PATIENTS:: Patients with severe traumatic brain injury. SETTING:: Medico-surgical ICU, university hospital. INTERVENTION:: Intracranial pressure, brain tissue PO2, and cerebral microdialysis monitoring (right frontal lobe, apparently normal tissue) combined with cerebral blood flow measurements using perfusion CT. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:: Cerebral blood flow was measured using perfusion CT in tissue area around intracranial monitoring (regional cerebral blood flow) and in bilateral supra-ventricular brain areas (global cerebral blood flow) and was matched to cerebral physiologic variables. The accuracy of intracranial monitoring to predict cerebral hypoperfusion (defined as an oligemic regional cerebral blood flow < 35 mL/100 g/min) was examined using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves. Thirty perfusion CT scans (median, 27 hr [interquartile range, 20-45] after traumatic brain injury) were performed on 27 patients (age, 39 yr [24-54 yr]; Glasgow Coma Scale, 7 [6-8]; 24/27 [89%] with diffuse injury). Regional cerebral blood flow correlated significantly with global cerebral blood flow (Pearson r = 0.70, p < 0.01). Compared with normal regional cerebral blood flow (n = 16), low regional cerebral blood flow (n = 14) measurements had a higher proportion of samples with intracranial pressure more than 20 mm Hg (13% vs 30%), brain tissue PO2 less than 20 mm Hg (9% vs 20%), cerebral microdialysis glucose less than 1 mmol/L (22% vs 57%), and lactate/pyruvate ratio more than 40 (4% vs 14%; all p < 0.05). Compared with intracranial pressure monitoring alone (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.61-0.87]), monitoring intracranial pressure + brain tissue PO2 (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.84 [0.74-0.93]) or intracranial pressure + brain tissue PO2+ cerebral microdialysis (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.88 [0.79-0.96]) was significantly more accurate in predicting low regional cerebral blood flow (both p < 0.05). CONCLUSION:: Brain multimodal monitoring-including intracranial pressure, brain tissue PO2, and cerebral microdialysis-is more accurate than intracranial pressure monitoring alone in detecting cerebral hypoperfusion at the bedside in patients with severe traumatic brain injury and predominantly diffuse injury.

Prognostication after cardiac arrest and hypothermia: a prospective study.

Current American Academy of Neurology (AAN) guidelines for outcome prediction in comatose survivors of cardiac arrest (CA) have been validated before the therapeutic hypothermia era (TH). We undertook this study to verify the prognostic value of clinical and electrophysiological variables in the TH setting. A total of 111 consecutive comatose survivors of CA treated with TH were prospectively studied over a 3-year period. Neurological examination, electroencephalography (EEG), and somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEP) were performed immediately after TH, at normothermia and off sedation. Neurological recovery was assessed at 3 to 6 months, using Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC). Three clinical variables, assessed within 72 hours after CA, showed higher false-positive mortality predictions as compared with the AAN guidelines: incomplete brainstem reflexes recovery (4% vs 0%), myoclonus (7% vs 0%), and absent motor response to pain (24% vs 0%). Furthermore, unreactive EEG background was incompatible with good long-term neurological recovery (CPC 1-2) and strongly associated with in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio for death, 15.4; 95% confidence interval, 3.3-71.9). The presence of at least 2 independent predictors out of 4 (incomplete brainstem reflexes, myoclonus, unreactive EEG, and absent cortical SSEP) accurately predicted poor long-term neurological recovery (positive predictive value = 1.00); EEG reactivity significantly improved the prognostication. Our data show that TH may modify outcome prediction after CA, implying that some clinical features should be interpreted with more caution in this setting as compared with the AAN guidelines. EEG background reactivity is useful in determining the prognosis after CA treated with TH.

Meta-analysis identifies 13 new loci associated with waist-hip ratio and reveals sexual dimorphism in the genetic basis of fat distribution.

Waist-hip ratio (WHR) is a measure of body fat distribution and a predictor of metabolic consequences independent of overall adiposity. WHR is heritable, but few genetic variants influencing this trait have been identified. We conducted a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies for WHR adjusted for body mass index (comprising up to 77,167 participants), following up 16 loci in an additional 29 studies (comprising up to 113,636 subjects). We identified 13 new loci in or near RSPO3, VEGFA, TBX15-WARS2, NFE2L3, GRB14, DNM3-PIGC, ITPR2-SSPN, LY86, HOXC13, ADAMTS9, ZNRF3-KREMEN1, NISCH-STAB1 and CPEB4 (P = 1.9 × 10⁻⁹ to P = 1.8 × 10⁻⁴⁰) and the known signal at LYPLAL1. Seven of these loci exhibited marked sexual dimorphism, all with a stronger effect on WHR in women than men (P for sex difference = 1.9 × 10⁻³ to P = 1.2 × 10⁻&supl;³). These findings provide evidence for multiple loci that modulate body fat distribution independent of overall adiposity and reveal strong gene-by-sex interactions.

Impact of the C2/C6 ratio of high-molecular-weight hydroxyethyl starch on pharmacokinetics and blood coagulation in pigs

Rapport de synthèse : Contexte: l'hydroxyéthylamidon (HEA) est largement utilisé comme expanseur volémique en anesthésiologie et réanimation. Cependant, cette classe de produits perturbe le system de la coagulation. Des améliorations restent possibles dans le choix de la combinaison optimale de poids moléculaire, de degré de substitution en radicaux éthyle et de localisation de ces radicaux sur le squelette glucidique des polymères, afin d'optimiser leur efficacité et leur tolérance. L'HEA de poids moléculaire élevé et faiblement substitué n'affecte pas plus la coagulation sanguine que de l'HEA de bas poids moléculaire faiblement substitué. Nous examinons in vivo l'effet d'un abaissement du rapport C2/C6 sur les caractéristiques pharmacocinétiques et l'impact sur la coagulation sanguine d'un HEA de haut poids moléculaire faiblement substitué. Matériels et méthode: nous comparons dans une étude prospective, randomisée et parallèle l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 avec l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 auprès de 30 cochons. Avant, pendant et jusqu'à 630 minutes après une perfusion de 30 ml/kg d'HEA, des échantillons sanguins ont été collectés pour mesurer les concentrations d'HEA, les tests de coagulation plasmatique classiques et la coagulation sanguine par thrombélastographie (TEG®, Haemoscope Corporation, Niles, II, U.S.). Les paramètres pharmacocinétiques ont été estimés en adaptant un modèle à deux compartiments. Résultats: la constante d'élimination est de 0.009 ± 0.001 (min-1) pour l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et 0.007 ± 0.001 (min-1) pour l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 (p<0.001); la surface sous la courbe de concentration est de 1374 ± 340 min*g/L pour l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et 1697 ± 411 min*g/L pour l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 (p=0.026). Les concentrations mesurées d'HEA ne montrent pas de différence entre l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6. Les deux solutions d'HEA affectent de façon identique la coagulation sanguine: l'index de coagulation thrombélastographique diminue pareillement à ta fin de la perfusion d'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et d'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 (p=0.29). De même, le temps de thromboplastine partielle activée et le temps de prothrombine augmentent de manière similaire pour l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 (p=0.83). Conclusion: la réduction du rapport C2/C6 de l'HEA de poids moléculaire élevé et faiblement substitué aboutit à une élimination légèrement accélérée d'HEA. Cependant, elle ne modifie pas l'effet perturbateur sur la coagulation.

A general model to predict individual exposure to solar UV by using ambient irradiance data

Excessive exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) is the main cause of skin cancer. Specific prevention should be further developed to target overexposed or highly vulnerable populations. A better characterisation of anatomical UV exposure patterns is however needed for specific prevention. To develop a regression model for predicting the UV exposure ratio (ER, ratio between the anatomical dose and the corresponding ground level dose) for each body site without requiring individual measurements. A 3D numeric model (SimUVEx) was used to compute ER for various body sites and postures. A multiple fractional polynomial regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of ER. The regression model used simulation data and its performance was tested on an independent data set. Two input variables were sufficient to explain ER: the cosine of the maximal daily solar zenith angle and the fraction of the sky visible from the body site. The regression model was in good agreement with the simulated data ER (R(2)=0.988). Relative errors up to +20% and -10% were found in daily doses predictions, whereas an average relative error of only 2.4% (-0.03% to 5.4%) was found in yearly dose predictions. The regression model predicts accurately ER and UV doses on the basis of readily available data such as global UV erythemal irradiance measured at ground surface stations or inferred from satellite information. It renders the development of exposure data on a wide temporal and geographical scale possible and opens broad perspectives for epidemiological studies and skin cancer prevention.

Sex-dependent selection on an autosomal melanic female ornament promotes the evolution of sex ratio bias.

Sex-dependent selection often leads to spectacularly different phenotypes in males and females. In species in which sexual dimorphism is not complete, it is unclear which benefits females and males derive from displaying a trait that is typical of the other sex. In barn owls (Tyto alba), females exhibit on average larger black eumelanic spots than males but members of the two sexes display this trait in the same range of possible values. In a 12-year study, we show that selection exerted on spot size directly or on genetically correlated traits strongly favoured females with large spots and weakly favoured males with small spots. Intense directional selection on females caused an increase in spot diameter in the population over the study period. This increase is due to a change in the autosomal genes underlying the expression of eumelanic spots but not of sex-linked genes. Female-like males produced more daughters than sons, while male-like females produced more sons than daughters when mated to a small-spotted male. These sex ratio biases appear adaptive because sons of male-like females and daughters of female-like males had above-average survival. This demonstrates that selection exerted against individuals displaying a trait that is typical of the other sex promoted the evolution of specific life history strategies that enhance their fitness. This may explain why in many organisms sexual dimorphism is often not complete.

Effect of changes in the deuterium content of drinking water on the hydrogen isotope ratio of urinary steroids in the context of sports drug testing.

The hydrogen isotope ratio (HIR) of body water and, therefore, of all endogenously synthesized compounds in humans, is mainly affected by the HIR of ingested drinking water. As a consequence, the entire organism and all of its synthesized substrates will reflect alterations in the isotope ratio of drinking water, which depends on the duration of exposure. To investigate the effect of this change on endogenous urinary steroids relevant to doping-control analysis the hydrogen isotope composition of potable water was suddenly enriched from -50 to 200 0/00 and maintained at this level for two weeks for two individuals. The steroids under investigation were 5β-pregnane-3α,20α-diol, 5α-androst-16-en-3α-ol, 3α-hydroxy-5α-androstan-17-one (ANDRO), 3α-hydroxy-5β-androstan-17-one (ETIO), 5α-androstane-3α,17β-diol, and 5β-androstane-3α,17β-diol (excreted as glucuronides) and ETIO, ANDRO and 3β-hydroxyandrost-5-en-17-one (excreted as sulfates). The HIR of body water was estimated by determination of the HIR of total native urine, to trace the induced changes. The hydrogen in steroids is partly derived from the total amount of body water and cholesterol-enrichment could be calculated by use of these data. Although the sum of changes in the isotopic composition of body water was 150 0/00, shifts of approximately 30 0/00 were observed for urinary steroids. Parallel enrichment in their HIR was observed for most of the steroids, and none of the differences between the HIR of individual steroids was elevated beyond recently established thresholds. This finding is important to sports drug testing because it supports the intended use of this novel and complementary methodology even in cases where athletes have drunk water of different HIR, a plausible and, presumably, inevitable scenario while traveling.