IFN stimulated gene expression in the liver is a better predictor of treatment response in chronic hepatitis c than the IL28b (IFN lambda 3) genotype

Background: Therapy of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) with pegIFNa/ribavirin achieves sustained virologic response (SVR) in ~55%. Pre-activation of the endogenous interferon system in the liver is associated non-response (NR). Recently, genome-wide association studies described associations of allelic variants near the IL28B (IFNλ3) gene with treatment response and with spontaneous clearance of the virus. We investigated if the IL28B genotype determines the constitutive expression of IFN stimulated genes (ISGs) in the liver of patients with CHC. Methods: We genotyped 93 patients with CHC for 3 IL28B single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs, rs12979860, rs8099917, rs12980275), extracted RNA from their liver biopsies and quantified the expression of IL28B and of 8 previously identified classifier genes which discriminate between SVR and NR (IFI44L, RSAD2, ISG15, IFI22, LAMP3, OAS3, LGALS3BP and HTATIP2). Decision tree ensembles in the form of a random forest classifier were used to calculate the relative predictive power of these different variables in a multivariate analysis. Results: The minor IL28B allele (bad risk for treatment response) was significantly associated with increased expression of ISGs, and, unexpectedly, with decreased expression of IL28B. Stratification of the patients into SVR and NR revealed that ISG expression was conditionally independent from the IL28B genotype, i.e. there was an increased expression of ISGs in NR compared to SVR irrespective of the IL28B genotype. The random forest feature score (RFFS) identified IFI27 (RFFS = 2.93), RSAD2 (1.88) and HTATIP2 (1.50) expression and the HCV genotype (1.62) as the strongest predictors of treatment response. ROC curves of the IL28B SNPs showed an AUC of 0.66 with an error rate (ERR) of 0.38. A classifier with the 3 best classifying genes showed an excellent test performance with an AUC of 0.94 and ERR of 0.15. The addition of IL28B genotype information did not improve the predictive power of the 3-gene classifier. Conclusions: IL28B genotype and hepatic ISG expression are conditionally independent predictors of treatment response in CHC. There is no direct link between altered IFNλ3 expression and pre-activation of the endogenous system in the liver. Hepatic ISG expression is by far the better predictor for treatment response than IL28B genotype.

Species distribution models reveal apparent competitive and facilitative effects of a dominant species on the distribution of tundra plants

Abiotic factors are considered strong drivers of species distribution and assemblages. Yet these spatial patterns are also influenced by biotic interactions. Accounting for competitors or facilitators may improve both the fit and the predictive power of species distribution models (SDMs). We investigated the influence of a dominant species, Empetrum nigrum ssp. hermaphroditum, on the distribution of 34 subordinate species in the tundra of northern Norway. We related SDM parameters of those subordinate species to their functional traits and their co-occurrence patterns with E. hermaphroditum across three spatial scales. By combining both approaches, we sought to understand whether these species may be limited by competitive interactions and/or benefit from habitat conditions created by the dominant species. The model fit and predictive power increased for most species when the frequency of occurrence of E. hermaphroditum was included in the SDMs as a predictor. The largest increase was found for species that 1) co-occur most of the time with E. hermaphroditum, both at large (i.e. 750 m) and small spatial scale (i.e. 2 m) or co-occur with E. hermaphroditum at large scale but not at small scale and 2) have particularly low or high leaf dry matter content (LDMC). Species that do not co-occur with E. hermaphroditum at the smallest scale are generally palatable herbaceous species with low LDMC, thus showing a weak ability to tolerate resource depletion that is directly or indirectly induced by E. hermaphroditum. Species with high LDMC, showing a better aptitude to face resource depletion and grazing, are often found in the proximity of E. hermaphroditum. Our results are consistent with previous findings that both competition and facilitation structure plant distribution and assemblages in the Arctic tundra. The functional and co-occurrence approaches used were complementary and provided a deeper understanding of the observed patterns by refinement of the pool of potential direct and indirect ecological effects of E. hermaphroditum on the distribution of subordinate species. Our correlative study would benefit being complemented by experimental approaches.

Long-term citalopram administration reduces responsiveness of HPA axis in patients with major depression: relationship with S-citalopram concentrations in plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and clinical response.

RATIONALE: A dysregulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis is a well-documented neurobiological finding in major depression. Moreover, clinically effective therapy with antidepressant drugs may normalize the HPA axis activity. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to test whether citalopram (R/S-CIT) affects the function of the HPA axis in patients with major depression (DSM IV). METHODS: Twenty depressed patients (11 women and 9 men) were challenged with a combined dexamethasone (DEX) suppression and corticotropin-releasing hormone (CRH) stimulation test (DEX/CRH test) following a placebo week and after 2, 4, and 16 weeks of 40 mg/day R/S-CIT treatment. RESULTS: The results show a time-dependent reduction of adrenocorticotrophic hormone (ACTH) and cortisol response during the DEX/CRH test both in treatment responders and nonresponders within 16 weeks. There was a significant relationship between post-DEX baseline cortisol levels (measured before administration of CRH) and severity of depression at pretreatment baseline. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed to identify the impact of psychopathology and hormonal stress responsiveness and R/S-CIT concentrations in plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). The magnitude of decrease in cortisol responsivity from pretreatment baseline to week 4 on drug [delta-area under the curve (AUC) cortisol] was a significant predictor (p<0.0001) of the degree of symptom improvement following 16 weeks on drug (i.e., decrease in HAM-D21 total score). The model demonstrated that the interaction of CSF S-CIT concentrations and clinical improvement was the most powerful predictor of AUC cortisol responsiveness. CONCLUSION: The present study shows that decreased AUC cortisol was highly associated with S-CIT concentrations in plasma and CSF. Therefore, our data suggest that the CSF or plasma S-CIT concentrations rather than the R/S-CIT dose should be considered as an indicator of the selective serotonergic reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) effect on HPA axis responsiveness as measured by AUC cortisol response.

Predicting hematologic toxicity in patients undergoing radioimmunotherapy with 90Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan or 131I-tositumomab.

This study aimed at identifying clinical factors for predicting hematologic toxicity after radioimmunotherapy with (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan or (131)I-tositumomab in clinical practice. Hematologic data were available from 14 non-Hodgkin lymphoma patients treated with (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan and 18 who received (131)I-tositumomab. The percentage baseline at nadir and 4 wk post nadir and the time to nadir were selected as the toxicity indicators for both platelets and neutrophils. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to identify significant predictors (P < 0.05) of each indicator. For both platelets and neutrophils, pooled and separate analyses of (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan and (131)I-tositumomab data yielded the time elapsed since the last chemotherapy as the only significant predictor of the percentage baseline at nadir. The extent of bone marrow involvement was not a significant factor in this study, possibly because of the short time elapsed since the last chemotherapy of the 7 patients with bone marrow involvement. Because both treatments were designed to deliver a comparable bone marrow dose, this factor also was not significant. None of the 14 factors considered was predictive of the time to nadir. The R(2) value for the model predicting percentage baseline at nadir was 0.60 for platelets and 0.40 for neutrophils. This model predicted the platelet and neutrophil toxicity grade to within ±1 for 28 and 30 of the 32 patients, respectively. For the 7 patients predicted with grade I thrombocytopenia, 6 of whom had actual grade I-II, dosing might be increased to improve treatment efficacy. The elapsed time since the last chemotherapy can be used to predict hematologic toxicity and customize the current dosing method in radioimmunotherapy.

Wound infection after excision and primary midline closure for pilonidal disease: risk factor analysis to improve patient selection.

BACKGROUND: Excision and primary midline closure for pilonidal disease (PD) is a simple procedure; however, it is frequently complicated by infection and prolonged healing. The aim of this study was to analyze risk factors for surgical site infection (SSI) in this context. METHODS: All consecutive patients undergoing excision and primary closure for PD from January 2002 through October 2008 were retrospectively assessed. The end points were SSI, as defined by the Center for Disease Control, and time to healing. Univariable and multivariable risk factor analyses were performed. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-one patients were included [97 men (74%), median age = 24 (range 15-66) years]. SSI occurred in 41 (31%) patients. Median time to healing was 20 days (range 12-76) in patients without SSI and 62 days (range 20-176) in patients with SSI (P < 0.0001). In univariable and multivariable analyses, smoking [OR = 2.6 (95% CI 1.02, 6.8), P = 0.046] and lack of antibiotic prophylaxis [OR = 5.6 (95% CI 2.5, 14.3), P = 0.001] were significant predictors for SSI. Adjusted for SSI, age over 25 was a significant predictor of prolonged healing. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that the rate of SSI after excision and primary closure of PD is higher in smokers and could be reduced by antibiotic prophylaxis. SSI significantly prolongs healing time, particularly in patients over 25 years.

Device-specific weighted T-score for two quantitative ultrasounds: operational propositions for the management of osteoporosis for 65 years and older women in Switzerland.

The World Health Organization (WHO) criteria for the diagnosis of osteoporosis are mainly applicable for dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurements at the spine and hip levels. There is a growing demand for cheaper devices, free of ionizing radiation such as promising quantitative ultrasound (QUS). In common with many other countries, QUS measurements are increasingly used in Switzerland without adequate clinical guidelines. The T-score approach developed for DXA cannot be applied to QUS, although well-conducted prospective studies have shown that ultrasound could be a valuable predictor of fracture risk. As a consequence, an expert committee named the Swiss Quality Assurance Project (SQAP, for which the main mission is the establishment of quality assurance procedures for DXA and QUS in Switzerland) was mandated by the Swiss Association Against Osteoporosis (ASCO) in 2000 to propose operational clinical recommendations for the use of QUS in the management of osteoporosis for two QUS devices sold in Switzerland. Device-specific weighted "T-score" based on the risk of osteoporotic hip fractures as well as on the prediction of DXA osteoporosis at the hip, according to the WHO definition of osteoporosis, were calculated for the Achilles (Lunar, General Electric, Madison, Wis.) and Sahara (Hologic, Waltham, Mass.) ultrasound devices. Several studies (totaling a few thousand subjects) were used to calculate age-adjusted odd ratios (OR) and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for the prediction of osteoporotic fracture (taking into account a weighting score depending on the design of the study involved in the calculation). The ORs were 2.4 (1.9-3.2) and AUC 0.72 (0.66-0.77), respectively, for the Achilles, and 2.3 (1.7-3.1) and 0.75 (0.68-0.82), respectively, for the Sahara device. To translate risk estimates into thresholds for clinical application, 90% sensitivity was used to define low fracture and low osteoporosis risk, and a specificity of 80% was used to define subjects as being at high risk of fracture or having osteoporosis at the hip. From the combination of the fracture model with the hip DXA osteoporotic model, we found a T-score threshold of -1.2 and -2.5 for the stiffness (Achilles) determining, respectively, the low- and high-risk subjects. Similarly, we found a T-score at -1.0 and -2.2 for the QUI index (Sahara). Then a screening strategy combining QUS, DXA, and clinical factors for the identification of women needing treatment was proposed. The application of this approach will help to minimize the inappropriate use of QUS from which the whole field currently suffers.

Detection of micrometastases in sentinel lymph nodes from melanoma patients: direct comparison of multimarker molecular and immunopathological methods.

The technique of sentinel lymph node (SLN) dissection is a reliable predictor of metastatic disease in the lymphatic basin draining the primary melanoma. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is emerging as a highly sensitive technique to detect micrometastases in SLNs, but its specificity has been questioned. A prospective SLN study in melanoma patients was undertaken to compare in detail immunopathological versus molecular detection methods. Sentinel lymphadenectomy was performed on 57 patients, with a total of 71 SLNs analysed. SLNs were cut in slices, which were alternatively subjected to parallel multimarker analysis by microscopy (haematoxylin and eosin and immunohistochemistry for HMB-45, S100, tyrosinase and Melan-A/MART-1) and RT-PCR (for tyrosinase and Melan-A/MART-1). Metastases were detected by both methods in 23% of the SLNs (28% of the patients). The combined use of Melan-A/MART-1 and tyrosinase amplification increased the sensitivity of PCR detection of microscopically proven micrometastases. Of the 55 immunopathologically negative SLNs, 25 were found to be positive on RT-PCR. Notably, eight of these SLNs contained naevi, all of which were positive for tyrosinase and/or Melan-A/MART-1, as detected at both mRNA and protein level. The remaining 41% of the SLNs were negative on both immunohistochemistry and RT-PCR. Analysis of a series of adjacent non-SLNs by RT-PCR confirmed the concept of orderly progression of metastasis. Clinical follow-up showed disease recurrence in 12% of the RT-PCR-positive immunopathology-negative SLNs, indicating that even an extensive immunohistochemical analysis may underestimate the presence of micrometastases. However, molecular analyses, albeit more sensitive, need to be further improved in order to attain acceptable specificity before they can be applied diagnostically.

Indicators for the total number of melanocytic naevi : an adjunct for screening campaigns. Observational study on 292 patients.

BACKGROUND: The presence of multiple melanocytic naevi is a strong risk factor for melanoma. Use of the whole body naevus count to identify at-risk patients is impractical. OBJECTIVES: To (i) identify a valid anatomical predictor of total naevus count; (ii) determine the number of naevi that most accurately predict total naevus count above 25, 50 and 100; and (iii) evaluate determinants of multiple melanocytic naevi and atypical naevi. METHODS: Clinical data from 292 consecutive Spanish patients consulting for skin lesions requiring debriding were collected throughout 2009 and 2010. Correlations between site-specific and whole body naevus counts were analysed. Cut-offs to predict total naevus counts were determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: The studied population was young (median age 31 years, interquartile range 28-43). The naevus count on the right arm correlated best with the total nevus count (R(2) 0·80 for men, 0·86 for women). Presence of at least five naevi on the right arm was the strongest determinant of a total naevus count above 50 [odds ratio (OR) 34·4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 13·9-85·0] and of having at least one atypical naevus (OR 5·7, 95% CI 2·4-13·5). Cut-off values of 6, 8 and 11 naevi on the right arm best predicted total naevus count above 25, 50 and 100, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the arm as a practical and reliable site to estimate the total naevus count when screening or phenotyping large populations. Threshold values for the number of naevi on the arm are proposed to help identify patients for melanoma screening.

Disseminated M. avium complex infection in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: declining incidence, improved prognosis and discontinuation of maintenance therapy.

Introduction of potent antiretroviral combination therapy (ART) has reduced overall morbidity and mortality amongst HIV-infected adults. Some prophylactic regimes against opportunistic infections can be discontinued in patients under successful ART. (1) The influence of the availability of ART on incidence and mortality of disseminated M. avium Complex infection (MAC). (2) The safety of discontinuation of maintenance therapy against MAC in patients on ART. The Swiss HIV-Cohort Study, a prospective multicentre study of HIV-infected adults. Patients with a nadir CD4 count below 50 cells/mm3 were considered at risk for MAC and contributed to total follow-up time for calculating the incidence. Survival analysis was performed by using Kaplan Meier and Cox proportional hazards methods. Safety of discontinuation of maintenance therapy was evaluated by review of the medical notes. 398 patients were diagnosed with MAC from 1990 to 1999. 350 had a previous CD4 count below 50 cells/mm3. A total of 3208 patients had a nadir CD4 count of less than 50 cells/mm3 during the study period and contributed to a total follow-up of 6004 person-years. The incidence over the whole study period was 5.8 events per 100 person-years. In the time period of available ART the incidence of MAC was significantly reduced (1.4 versus 8.8 events per 100 person-years, p < 0.001). Being diagnosed after 1995 was the most powerful predictor of better survival (adjusted hazard ratio for death: 0.27; p < 0.001). None of 24 patients discontinuing maintenance therapy while on ART experienced recurrence of MAC during a total follow-up of 56.6 person-years (upper 95% confidence limit 5.3 per 100 person-years). Introducing ART has markedly reduced the risk of MAC for HIV-infected individuals with a history of very low CD4 counts. Survival after diagnosis of MAC has improved after ART became available. In patients responding to ART, discontinuation of maintenance therapy against M. avium may be safe.

Outcome of patients with acute coronary syndrome in hospitals of different sizes. A report from the AMIS Plus Registry.

To assess the impact of admission to different hospital types on early and 1-year outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Between 1997 and 2009, 31 010 ACS patients from 76 Swiss hospitals were enrolled in the AMIS Plus registry. Large tertiary institutions with continuous (24 hour/7 day) cardiac catheterisation facilities were classified as type A hospitals, and all others as type B. For 1-year outcomes, a subgroup of patients admitted after 2005 were studied. Eleven type A hospitals admitted 15987 (52%) patients and 65 type B hospitals 15023 (48%) patients. Patients admitted into B hospitals were older, more frequently female, diabetic, hypertensive, had more severe comorbidities and more frequent non-ST segment elevation (NSTE)-ACS/unstable angina (UA). STE-ACS patients admitted into B hospitals received more thrombolysis, but less percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Crude in-hospital mortality and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were higher in patients from B hospitals. Crude 1-year mortality of 3747 ACS patients followed up was higher in patients admitted into B hospitals, but no differences were found for MACE. After adjustment for age, risk factors, type of ACS and comorbidities, hospital type was not an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality, in-hospital MACE, 1-year MACE or mortality. Admission indicated a crude outcome in favour of hospitalisation during duty-hours while 1-year outcome could not document a significant effect. ACS patients admitted to smaller regional Swiss hospitals were older, had more severe comorbidities, more NSTE-ACS and received less intensive treatment compared with the patients initially admitted to large tertiary institutions. However, hospital type was not an independent predictor of early and mid-term outcomes in these patients. Furthermore, our data suggest that Swiss hospitals have been functioning as an efficient network for the past 12 years.

Record keeping by Swiss physiotherapists--a national survey of knowledge regarding legal requirements.

A national survey conducted in Switzerland aimed to evaluate the knowledge of physiotherapists regarding the legal requirements for record keeping and to collect their feedback about record keeping in general. Three physiotherapists from various professional practice groups and a lawyer specialised in health law developed a questionnaire that was sent to the 7,753 members of two existing national associations of physiotherapists. The questionnaire evaluated the participants' knowledge by calculating a score of legal knowledge, which had a maximum of 30 points. We included 825 questionnaires in the analysis. The large majority (83.4%) of participants confessed an ignorance of the legal requirements concerning record keeping prior to the survey. The average score of legal compatibility was 8 points. The younger age of the physiotherapists was a significant predictor of having knowledge of the legal requirements for record keeping (p <0.001). The participants had an appreciation of the value of records, but they did not have the relevant knowledge regarding the legal requirements for keeping records. The participants blamed a lack of time and remuneration for their failure to keep records according to known requirements. All practising allied health professionals should keep up-to-date and accurate records that conform to active legal requirements and existing international guidelines. In addition to the existing legal requirements, the emergence of e-health and the electronic era will trigger major changes in patient record management by physiotherapists.

Significant decrease in in-hospital mortality and major adverse cardiac events in Swiss STEMI patients between 2000 and December 2007.

To evaluate the in-hospital outcome of STEMI (ST elevation myocardial infarction) patients admitted to Swiss hospitals between 2000 and December 2007, and to identify the predictors of in-hospital mortality and major cardiac events. Data from the Swiss national registry AMIS Plus (Acute Myocardial Infarction and Unstable Angina in Switzerland) were used. All patients admitted between January 2000 and December 2007 with STEMI or a new LBBB (left bundle branch block) were included in the registry. We studied 12 026 STEMI patients admitted to 68 hospitals. The mean age was 64 +/- 13 years and 73% of the patients were male. Incidence of in-hospital death was 7.6% in 2000 and 6% in 2007. Reinfarction fell from 3.7% in 2000 to 0.9% in 2007. Thrombolysis decreased from 40.2% in 2000 to 2% in 2007. Clinical predictors of mortality were: age >65 years, Killips class III or IV, diabetes, Q wave myocardial infarction (at presentation). Patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) had lower mortality and reinfarction rates (3.9% versus 11.2% and 1.1% versus 3.1% respectively, p <0.001) over time, although their numbers increased from 43% in 2000 to 85% in 2007. Patients admitted to hospitals with PCI facilities had lower mortality than patients hospitalised in hospitals without it, but the demographic characteristics differ widely between the two groups. Both in-hospital mortality and reinfarction decreased significantly over the time, parallel to an increased number of PCI. PCI was also the strongest predictor of survival. In-hospital mortality and reinfarction rate have decreased significantly in Swiss STEMI patients in the last seven years, parallel to a significant increase in the number of percutaneous coronary interventions in addition to medical therapy. Outcome is not related to the site of admission but to PCI access.

Obstructive Sleep Apnea Severity and Overnight Body Fluid Shift before and after Hemodialysis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Obstructive sleep apnea is associated with significantly increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Fluid overload may promote obstructive sleep apnea in patients with ESRD through an overnight fluid shift from the legs to the neck soft tissues. Body fluid shift and severity of obstructive sleep apnea before and after hemodialysis were compared in patients with ESRD. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: Seventeen patients with hemodialysis and moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea were included. Polysomnographies were performed the night before and after hemodialysis to assess obstructive sleep apnea, and bioimpedance was used to measure fluid overload and leg fluid volume. RESULTS: The mean overnight rostral fluid shift was 1.27±0.41 L prehemodialysis; it correlated positively with fluid overload volume (r=0.39; P=0.02) and was significantly lower posthemodialysis (0.78±0.38 L; P<0.001). There was no significant difference in the mean obstructive apnea-hypopnea index before and after hemodialysis (46.8±22.0 versus 42.1±18.6 per hour; P=0.21), but obstructive apnea-hypopnea index was significantly lower posthemodialysis (-10.1±10.8 per hour) in the group of 12 patients, with a concomitant reduction of fluid overload compared with participants without change in fluid overload (obstructive apnea-hypopnea index +8.2±16.1 per hour; P<0.01). A lower fluid overload after hemodialysis was significantly correlated (r=0.49; P=0.04) with a lower obstructive apnea-hypopnea index. Fluid overload-assessed by bioimpedance-was the best predictor of the change in obstructive apnea-hypopnea index observed after hemodialysis (standardized r=-0.68; P=0.01) in multivariate regression analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Fluid overload influences overnight rostral fluid shift and obstructive sleep apnea severity in patients with ESRD undergoing intermittent hemodialysis. Although no benefit of hemodialysis on obstructive sleep apnea severity was observed in the whole group, the change in obstructive apnea-hypopnea index was significantly correlated with the change in fluid overload after hemodialysis. Moreover, the subgroup with lower fluid overload posthemodialysis showed a significantly lower obstructive sleep apnea severity, which provides a strong incentive to further study whether optimizing fluid status in patients with obstructive sleep apnea and ESRD will improve the obstructive apnea-hypopnea index.

The effects of safety climate and trust on job satisfaction

Job satisfaction has been a frequently studied concept in organizational behavior. Past research has shown that trust in top management is an important factor influencing job satisfaction. To date, little attention has been paid to safety climate perceptions as a possible predictor of job satisfaction. In our study we investigated the direct and interactive effects of trust in top management and individual-level perceptions of safety climate in predicting job satisfaction. The findings of this study point to the importance of positive perceptions of safety climate on employees' job satisfaction when trust in top management is low.

A Meta-Analysis of Trabecular Bone Score in Fracture Risk Prediction and Its Relationship to FRAX.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.