The dynamics of the Swiss electricity market : three essays

Executive Summary Electricity is crucial for modern societies, thus it is important to understand the behaviour of electricity markets in order to be prepared to face the consequences of policy changes. The Swiss electricity market is now in a transition stage from a public monopoly to a liberalised market and it is undergoing an "emergent" liberalisation - i.e. liberalisation taking place without proper regulation. The withdrawal of nuclear capacity is also being debated. These two possible changes directly affect the mechanisms for capacity expansion. Thus, in this thesis we concentrate on understanding the dynamics of capacity expansion in the Swiss electricity market. A conceptual model to help understand the dynamics of capacity expansion in the Swiss electricity market is developed an explained in the first essay. We identify a potential risk of imports dependence. In the second essay a System Dynamics model, based on the conceptual model, is developed to evaluate the consequences of three scenarios: a nuclear phase-out, the implementation of a policy for avoiding imports dependence, and the combination of both. We conclude that the Swiss market is not well prepared to face unexpected changes of supply and demand, and we identify a risk of imports dependence, mainly in the case of a nuclear phase-out. The third essay focus on the opportunity cost of hydro-storage power generation, one of the main generation sources in Switzerland. We use and extended version of our model to test different policies for assigning an opportunity cost to hydro-storage power generation. We conclude that the preferred policies are different for different market participants and depend on market structure.

Generation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) during woodworking operations.

Occupational exposures to wood dust have been associated with an elevated risk of sinonasal cancer (SNC). Wood dust is recognized as a human carcinogen but the specific cancer causative agent remains unknown. One possible explanation is a co-exposure to; wood dust and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). PAHs could be generated during incomplete combustion of wood due to heat created by use of power tools. To determine if PAHs are generated from wood during common wood working operations, PAH concentrations in wood dust samples collected in an experimental chamber operated under controlled conditions were analyzed. In addition, personal air samples from workers exposed to wood dust (n = 30) were collected. Wood dust was generated using three different power tools: vibrating sander, belt sander, and saw; and six wood materials: fir, Medium Density Fiberboard (MDF), beech, mahogany, oak and wood melamine. Monitoring of wood workers was carried out by means of personal sampler device during wood working operations. We measured 21 PAH concentrations in wood dust samples by capillary gas chromatography-ion trap mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Total PAH concentrations in wood dust varied greatly (0.24-7.95 ppm) with the lowest being in MDF dust and the highest in wood melamine dust. Personal PAH exposures were between 37.5-119.8 ng m(-3) during wood working operations. Our results suggest that PAH exposures are present during woodworking operations and hence could play a role in the mechanism of cancer induction related to wood dust exposure.

Species distributions and interactions in a changing world : from understanding to forecasting

Les écosystèmes fournissent de nombreuses ressources et services écologiques qui sont utiles à la population humaine. La biodiversité est une composante essentielle des écosystèmes et maintient de nombreux services. Afin d'assurer la permanence des services écosystémiques, des mesures doivent être prises pour conserver la biodiversité. Dans ce but, l'acquisition d'informations détaillées sur la distribution de la biodiversité dans l'espace est essentielle. Les modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) sont des modèles empiriques qui mettent en lien des observations de terrain (présences ou absences d'une espèce) avec des descripteurs de l'environnement, selon des courbes de réponses statistiques qui décrive la niche réalisée des espèces. Ces modèles fournissent des projections spatiales indiquant les lieux les plus favorables pour les espèces considérées. Le principal objectif de cette thèse est de fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution des espèces et des communautés en montagne pour le climat présent et futur en considérant non-seulement des variables abiotiques mais aussi biotiques. Les régions de montagne et l'écosystème alpin sont très sensibles aux changements globaux et en même temps assurent de nombreux services écosystémiques. Cette thèse est séparée en trois parties : (i) fournir une meilleure compréhension du rôle des interactions biotiques dans la distribution des espèces et l'assemblage des communautés en montagne (ouest des Alpes Suisses), (ii) permettre le développement d'une nouvelle approche pour modéliser la distribution spatiale de la biodiversité, (iii) fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution future des espèces ainsi que de la composition des communautés. En me focalisant sur les papillons, bourdons et plantes vasculaires, j'ai détecté des interactions biotiques importantes qui lient les espèces entre elles. J'ai également identifié la signature du filtre de l'environnement sur les communautés en haute altitude confirmant l'utilité des SDMs pour reproduire ce type de processus. A partir de ces études, j'ai contribué à l'amélioration méthodologique des SDMs dans le but de prédire les communautés en incluant les interactions biotiques et également les processus non-déterministes par une approche probabiliste. Cette approche permet de prédire non-seulement la distribution d'espèces individuelles, mais également celle de communautés dans leur entier en empilant les projections (S-SDMs). Finalement, j'ai utilisé cet outil pour prédire la distribution d'espèces et de communautés dans le passé et le futur. En particulier, j'ai modélisé la migration post-glaciaire de Trollius europaeus qui est à l'origine de la structure génétique intra-spécifique chez cette espèce et évalué les risques de perte face au changement climatique. Finalement, j'ai simulé la distribution des communautés de bourdons pour le 21e siècle afin d'évaluer les changements probables dans ce groupe important de pollinisateurs. La diversité fonctionnelle des bourdons va être altérée par la perte d'espèces spécialistes de haute altitude et ceci va influencer la pollinisation des plantes en haute altitude. - Ecosystems provide a multitude of resources and ecological services, which are useful to human. Biodiversity is an essential component of those ecosystems and guarantee many services. To assure the permanence of ecosystem services for future generation, measure should be applied to conserve biodiversity. For this purpose, the acquisition of detailed information on how biodiversity implicated in ecosystem function is distributed in space is essential. Species distribution models (SDMs) are empirical models relating field observations to environmental predictors based on statistically-derived response surfaces that fit the realized niche. These models result in spatial predictions indicating locations of the most suitable environment for the species and may potentially be applied to predict composition of communities and their functional properties. The main objective of this thesis was to provide more accurate projections of species and communities distribution under current and future climate in mountains by considering not solely abiotic but also biotic drivers of species distribution. Mountain areas and alpine ecosystems are considered as particularly sensitive to global changes and are also sources of essential ecosystem services. This thesis had three main goals: (i) a better ecological understanding of biotic interactions and how they shape the distribution of species and communities, (ii) the development of a novel approach to the spatial modeling of biodiversity, that can account for biotic interactions, and (iii) ecologically more realistic projections of future species distributions, of future composition and structure of communities. Focusing on butterfly and bumblebees in interaction with the vegetation, I detected important biotic interactions for species distribution and community composition of both plant and insects along environmental gradients. I identified the signature of environmental filtering processes at high elevation confirming the suitability of SDMs for reproducing patterns of filtering. Using those case-studies, I improved SDMs by incorporating biotic interaction and accounting for non-deterministic processes and uncertainty using a probabilistic based approach. I used improved modeling to forecast the distribution of species through the past and future climate changes. SDMs hindcasting allowed a better understanding of the spatial range dynamic of Trollius europaeus in Europe at the origin of the species intra-specific genetic diversity and identified the risk of loss of this genetic diversity caused by climate change. By simulating the future distribution of all bumblebee species in the western Swiss Alps under nine climate change scenarios for the 21st century, I found that the functional diversity of this pollinator guild will be largely affected by climate change through the loss of high elevation specialists. In turn, this will have important consequences on alpine plant pollination.

A glutathione precursor, N-acetyl-cysteine, modulates mismatch negativity generation in schizophrenia patients

Schizophrenia patients exhibit deficits in low-level processing, including pitch discrimination. This deficiency manifests in auditory evoked potentials (AEPs) as an impaired mismatch negativity (MMN), an electrophysiological response to infrequent target stimuli interspersed among frequent standard stimuli that typically peaks ~100ms post-stimulus onset. NMDA receptor antagonists have been shown to block MMN generation in both animals and humans, and NMDA dysfunction has been linked to the underlying pathophysiology of schizophrenia. A parallel line of evidence indicates that glutathione (GSH) regulation is perturbed in schizophrenia patients at the gene, protein and functional levels (Tosic et al., 2006). This GSH dysregulation leads to NMDA receptors' hypofunction through interaction with their redox site (Steullet et al., 2006). The present study aimed to modulate GSH levels in schizophrenia patients and assessed the effects of such a modulation on MMN generation mechanisms. N-acetyl-cysteine (NAC), a GSH precursor, was administered to schizophrenia patients, using a double-blind cross-over protocol. One group received NAC (2g/day) for 60 days and then placebo for another 60 days, and vice-versa for the second group. AEPs from patients were recorded at the onset of the protocol, at the point of cross-over, and at the end of the study. Participants were instructed to manually respond to target stimuli (2kHz pure tones occurring 20% of the time among 1kHz pure tones). Analyses of AEPs recorded at protocol onset indicated that patients (n=11) were significantly impaired in generating the MMN relative to age-matched controls (n=11). Specifically, the global field power (GFP), an index of AEP magnitude, was measured over the 70- 155ms post-stimulus interval and submitted to an analysis of variance (ANOVA). There was a significant interaction between population and stimulus frequency, indicating impaired MMN generation in patients at protocol onset. Analyses of AEPs recorded during administration of NAC (n=7) versus placebo (n=7) revealed the efficacy of this GSH precursor in modulating MMN generation mechanisms. ANOVA of GFP over the 70- 155ms post-stimulus interval, using stimulus frequency and treatment as within-participants variables, revealed a significant interaction and indicated that NAC can ameliorate MMN generation. We discuss these results in terms of potential therapeutic strategies for schizophrenia.

3D noise power spectrum applied on clinical mdct scanners: effects of reconstruction algorithms and reconstruction filters

The noise power spectrum (NPS) is the reference metric for understanding the noise content in computed tomography (CT) images. To evaluate the noise properties of clinical multidetector (MDCT) scanners, local 2D and 3D NPSs were computed for different acquisition reconstruction parameters.A 64- and a 128-MDCT scanners were employed. Measurements were performed on a water phantom in axial and helical acquisition modes. CT dose index was identical for both installations. Influence of parameters such as the pitch, the reconstruction filter (soft, standard and bone) and the reconstruction algorithm (filtered-back projection (FBP), adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR)) were investigated. Images were also reconstructed in the coronal plane using a reformat process. Then 2D and 3D NPS methods were computed.In axial acquisition mode, the 2D axial NPS showed an important magnitude variation as a function of the z-direction when measured at the phantom center. In helical mode, a directional dependency with lobular shape was observed while the magnitude of the NPS was kept constant. Important effects of the reconstruction filter, pitch and reconstruction algorithm were observed on 3D NPS results for both MDCTs. With ASIR, a reduction of the NPS magnitude and a shift of the NPS peak to the low frequency range were visible. 2D coronal NPS obtained from the reformat images was impacted by the interpolation when compared to 2D coronal NPS obtained from 3D measurements.The noise properties of volume measured in last generation MDCTs was studied using local 3D NPS metric. However, impact of the non-stationarity noise effect may need further investigations.