Worker policing in the german wasp Vespula germanica

In some ants, bees, and wasps, workers kill or "police" male eggs laid by other workers in order to maintain the reproductive primacy of the queen. Kin selection theory predicts that multiple mating by the queen is one factor that can selectively favor worker policing. This is because when the queen is mated to multiple males, workers are more closely related to the queen's sons than to the sons of other workers. Earlier work has suggested that reproductive patterns in the German wasp Vespula germanica may contradict this theory, because in some colonies a large fraction of the adult males were inferred to be the workers' sons, despite the effective queen mating frequency being greater than 2 (2.4). In the present study, we reexamine the V. germanica case and show that it does support the theory. First, genetic analysis confirms that the effective queen mating frequency is high, 2.9, resulting in workers being more related to the queen's sons than to other workers' sons. Second, behavioral assays show that worker-laid eggs are effectively killed by other workers, despite worker-laid eggs having the same intrinsic viability as queen-laid ones. Finally, we estimate that approximately 58.4% of the male eggs but only 0.44% of the adult males are worker derived in queenright colonies, consistent with worker reproduction being effectively policed.

Worker policing in the german wasp Vespula germanica

In some ants, bees, and wasps, workers kill or "police" male eggs laid by other workers in order to maintain the reproductive primacy of the queen. Kin selection theory predicts that multiple mating by the queen is one factor that can selectively favor worker policing. This is because when the queen is mated to multiple males, workers are more closely related to the queen's sons than to the sons of other workers. Earlier work has suggested that reproductive patterns in the German wasp Vespula germanica may contradict this theory, because in some colonies a large fraction of the adult males were inferred to be the workers' sons, despite the effective queen mating frequency being greater than 2 (2.4). In the present study, we reexamine the V. germanica case and show that it does support the theory. First, genetic analysis confirms that the effective queen mating frequency is high, 2.9, resulting in workers being more related to the queen's sons than to other workers' sons. Second, behavioral assays show that worker-laid eggs are effectively killed by other workers, despite worker-laid eggs having the same intrinsic viability as queen-laid ones. Finally, we estimate that approximately 58.4% of the male eggs but only 0.44% of the adult males are worker derived in queenright colonies, consistent with worker reproduction being effectively policed.

Community Policing in Switzerland's Major Urban Areas: An Observational Study of the Implementation and Impact Using Geospatial Data Mining

La présente étude est à la fois une évaluation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximité dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - Bâle, Berne, Genève, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximité (community policing) est à la fois une philosophie et une stratégie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvelé entre la police et les communautés locales dans le but de résoudre les problèmes relatifs à la sécurité et à l'ordre public. L'évaluation de processus a analysé des données relatives aux réformes internes de la police qui ont été obtenues par l'intermédiaire d'entretiens semi-structurés avec des administrateurs clés des cinq départements de police, ainsi que dans des documents écrits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'évaluation des impacts, quant à elle, s'est basée sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques policières et des données de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit à partir des données du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'insécurité, à la perception du désordre public et à la satisfaction de la population à l'égard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage régulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines à plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des années 1980. L'évaluation de processus a abouti à un « Calendrier des activités » visant à créer des données de panel permettant de mesurer les progrès réalisés dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité à l'aide d'une grille d'évaluation à six dimensions à des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'évaluation des impacts, effectuée ex post facto, a utilisé un concept de recherche non-expérimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de différents modèles de police de proximité dans des zones comparables à travers les cinq villes étudiées. Les quartiers urbains, délimités par zone de code postal, ont ainsi été regroupés par l'intermédiaire d'une typologie réalisée à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervisés et non supervisés ont été utilisés sur les données à haute dimensionnalité relatives à la criminalité, à la structure socio-économique et démographique et au cadre bâti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont été utilisées dans le but de réduire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultanément la variance inter-cluster des réponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des forêts d'arbres décisionnels (random forests) a permis à la fois d'évaluer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier élaborée et de sélectionner les variables contextuelles clés afin de construire un modèle parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la méthode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a été utilisée pour équilibrer les échantillons prétest-posttest en termes d'âge, de sexe et de niveau d'éducation des répondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifié dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la différence observée dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les résultats statistiquement significatifs ont été soumis à une analyse de sensibilité (sensitivity analysis) afin d'évaluer leur robustesse face à un biais potentiel dû à des covariables non observées. L'étude relève qu'au cours des quinze dernières années, les cinq services de police ont entamé des réformes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs stratégies opérationnelles et qu'ils ont noué des partenariats stratégiques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximité. La typologie de quartier développée a abouti à une réduction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble suggérer que les méthodes de géocomputation aident à équilibrer les covariables observées et donc à réduire les menaces relatives à la validité interne d'un concept de recherche non-expérimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a révélé que le sentiment d'insécurité a diminué de manière significative pendant la période 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant à l'intérieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces améliorations sont assez robustes face à des biais dus à des covariables inobservées et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité. L'hypothèse alternative envisageant que les diminutions observées dans le sentiment d'insécurité soient, partiellement, un résultat des interventions policières de proximité semble donc être aussi plausible que l'hypothèse nulle considérant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, même si le concept de recherche non-expérimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas complètement exclure la sélection et la régression à la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.

The health of adolescents around a world in transition.

Since several years, the health of adolescents is on the agenda of ministers, decision makers and health professionals. Around the world, while there has been a steady decrease of the death rates among young children, this is not the case for young people. This is mainly linked with the fact that mortality and morbidity during this period of life is largely linked with non communicable diseases and conditions, including deaths from injuries, suicide, homicides and drug abuse. Unplanned pregnancies, illegal abortions, newly acquired HIV infections are also situations that have short and long term consequences. This paper reviews the epidemiological data pertaining to adolescent health and disease. It proposes evidence-informed avenues as how to address these issues in the field of health care (e.g. adolescent friendly services) and of prevention and health promotion. It also stresses the importance of creating safe environments for the development and well-being of young people and thus, of an interdisciplinary and inter sectorial approach to their complex health problems and challenges.

Secular trends in height and weight among children and adolescents of the Seychelles, 1956-2006

Background: Few data is available on long-term secular trends in height and weight in children in countries in transition. We assessed the secular trends in height and weight among representative samples of children and adolescents from the Seychelles (African region). Methods: Weight and height data from all students of all schools in four selected school grades (kindergarten, 4th, 7th and 10th years) were collected by cross-sectional surveys for periods 1998-9 (3,676 boys, 3,715 girls) and 2005-6 (4,867 boys, 4,846 girls). Data from 1956-7 was extracted from a previously published report. Results: Height increased, in boys, by 1.6 cm/decade for the period 1956-7 to 1998- 9, and 1.1 cm/decade for the period 1998-8 to 2005-6; in girls, the corresponding figures were 0.9 cm/decade and 1.8 cm/decade. At age 15.5 years, boys/girls were taller by 10/13 cm in 2005-6 than in 1956-7. Weight increased, in boys, by 1.4 kg/decade for the period 1956-7 to 1998-9, and by 2.2 kg/decade for the subsequent period; the corresponding figures in girls were 1.1 kg/decade and 2.5 kg/decade. Conclusion: Marked upward secular trends in body height and weight were documented in children and adolescents aged <16 years in the Seychelles, consistent with large changes in socio-economic and nutritional indicators in the considered 50- year interval. However, indirect evidence suggests that the secular height gain reflects accelerated growth during childhood over time with less than commensurate impact on adult height. Conversely, the largely steeper secular increase in weight than height is consistent with a pediatric obesity epidemic.

Les enjeux spatiaux et sociaux d'une dynamique interethnique en transition dans les quartiers de centre-ville. La construction des diverses formes de représentation dans la manière de définir un quartier de Nice.

Résumé Cette thèse de doctorat se fixe comme objectif général de définir la spécificité d'un espace urbain situé en centre-ville à travers sa dynamique sociale et interethnique. Il s'agit de relever les différentes formes et manifestations ethniques, mais également de comprendre la manière dont est vécue cette socialité, tout en tenant compte du contexte urbain dans lequel elles se situent. La particularité de ce travail est le fait de proposer une démarche alliant deux disciplines à savoir la géographie et la sociologie, dans le but de proposer une recherche transdisciplinaire, avec comme conséquence la mise en oeuvre d'une démarche commune nourrie des deux disciplines. Les quartiers ethniques situés en centre-ville ne se présentent pas comme des espaces figés, puisque des changements fréquents sont observés aussi bien au niveau de leur population que de l'affectation des locaux commerciaux et des logements. Ils semblent davantage se caractériser comme des « espaces à l'avenir indéterminé » dans le sens où leur avenir aussi bien au niveau de leur structure urbaine que de leurs rapports sociaux ne peut être prévisible et qu'ils sont par ailleurs susceptibles d'être soumis à de nombreux changements, d'où l'idée également d' « espaces en mutations ». Pour aborder ces thématiques de recherche, nous avons opté pour une étude fondée sur le principe de la représentation et de l'une des formes essentielles à travers lesquelles elles se produisent et se manifestent, à savoir les images. Cette recherche privilégie ainsi une analyse dynamique du phénomène interethnique, l'inscrivant dans le courant constructiviste qui s'intéresse notamment à l'étude des pratiques des acteurs sociaux et leurs représentations, dans le sens qu'elles sont le fruit d'une construction sociale. Dans ce type de démarche analytique, il s'agit de prendre en considération à la fois l'analyse du chercheur et la réalité objective et subjective du vécu des acteurs urbains qui regroupent les riverains, les commerçants, les membres associatifs, les politiques et les médias. C'est justement l'association de ces deux approches qui permet de définir un quartier urbain. Abstract "The spatial and social stakes of an interethnic dynamics in transition in the downtown area. The construction of the various forms of representations in order to define an urban quarter in Nice" The general objective of this PHD is to define the specificity of an urban space located in the downtown area with social and interethnic dynamics. Specifically the diverse ethnic form and sign to include the understanding mariner where society has lived in a specific urban context. The particularity of this work is to advance an analytic method using two disciplines: geography and sociology, in order to bring up a transdisciplinarian research with a common method. The ethnic quarters in the inner-city area are not presented as fixed spaces, since frequent changes were observed in the population level and at the allotment level of the commercial premises and the lodgings. Defined as "undetermined future spaces" as their future in the urban structure or the social relations can not be foresee and are supposed to be subjective to many changes. Therefore speaking of "mutations spaces". The option of this type of thematic research is the study of the principle of representation and essential form which shows and produces the images. Research promotes a dynamic analyses of the interethnic phenomena, inside the constructivist which is focused the practices of social actors, their own representations, and products of a social construction. The production of analytical approach is necessary in order to consider the analyses of the research worker and the objective and subjective reality of the life of the urban actors. It gathers the residents, tradesmen, members of associations, politicians and the press. The association of these types of approach define a urban quarter.

Bayesian Networks for the Age Classification of Living Individuals: a Study on Transition Analysis

Over the past few decades, age estimation of living persons has represented a challenging task for many forensic services worldwide. In general, the process for age estimation includes the observation of the degree of maturity reached by some physical attributes, such as dentition or several ossification centers. The estimated chronological age or the probability that an individual belongs to a meaningful class of ages is then obtained from the observed degree of maturity by means of various statistical methods. Among these methods, those developed in a Bayesian framework offer to users the possibility of coherently dealing with the uncertainty associated with age estimation and of assessing in a transparent and logical way the probability that an examined individual is younger or older than a given age threshold. Recently, a Bayesian network for age estimation has been presented in scientific literature; this kind of probabilistic graphical tool may facilitate the use of the probabilistic approach. Probabilities of interest in the network are assigned by means of transition analysis, a statistical parametric model, which links the chronological age and the degree of maturity by means of specific regression models, such as logit or probit models. Since different regression models can be employed in transition analysis, the aim of this paper is to study the influence of the model in the classification of individuals. The analysis was performed using a dataset related to the ossifications status of the medial clavicular epiphysis and results support that the classification of individuals is not dependent on the choice of the regression model.

Représentations institutionnelles du cancer [Institutional representations of cancer]

Current institutional and official representations of cancer are: coordination, integration, team approaches, quality management, full informed consent, patient centered communication and empowerment. Web access, comprehensive care plan summaries patient centered healthcare interactions and evidence-based programs are different ways of delivering the comprehensive care and follow-up cancer survivors deserve. The question remains, how to best explore and respect, in the meantime, more subjective dimensions such as patient beliefs, values, the meaning of the illness, preferences and needs. These aspects are fundamental elements in the construction of a trusting relationship, so as to find common ground, to be open to discuss anxiety and doubts and to provide information tailored to suit the patient's level of understanding, in order to reduce vulnerability to the feeling of being "lost in transition".

Quelle organisation des soins pour le patient polymorbide? [How should we organize health care for multimorbidity patients?].

Polymorbidity affects an increasing number of patients of all ages as demonstrated by a recent epidemiological study and represents a real challenge for the organization of health care. Appropriate management of polymorbid patients requires an interdisciplinary approach associating generalist and specialist physicians, but also nurses, other health professionals and social workers. An improvement in transition care between the community and the hospital is necessary in both directions. Prioritizing the treatment objectives is essential to allow patient adherence and avoid cumulative drug interactions and adverse effects. Those objectives are difficult to attain in the context of our present health care organization. This paper attempts to identify the difficulties involved in caring for polymorbid patients and propose ways to improve it.

La co-production dans les prestations relevant de la puissance publique : l'exemple de la police de proximité en Suisse

Si dans certains domaines (ex. les services de l'emploi) la co-production est bien implantée, elle paraît plus ardue dans d'autres types de services publics, comme la police. La co-production de la sécurité est-elle faisable ? Quelles sont les volontés de part et d'autre pour développer ce partenariat ? À l'aune de la police de proximité en Suisse et sur la base de données quantitatives et qualitatives, cet article apporte des résultats innovants. If in some administrations (eg. employment services) it is clearly well established, the co-production seems to be more difficult in other services, like the police. Thus, is the co-production of security services feasible ? Are both parties (police forces and citizens) ready for such a process ? In the light of community policing in Switzerland and on the basis of quantitative and qualitative data, this article will provide innovative results and research avenues in the field.

From geriatric service to primary care: a retrospective pharmaceutical analysis of the medical prescription

Introduction The population of elderly persons is increasing andnegative outcomes due to polymedication are frequent. Discrepanciesin information about medication are frequent when older persons aretransitioning from hospital to home, increasing the risk of hospitalreadmission. The aims of this study were a) to determine discrepanciesin medical regimen indicated in two official discharge documents(DS = discharge summary, DP=discharge prescription); b) to characterizethe pharmacotherapy prescribed in older patients dischargedfrom a geriatric service.Materials & Methods Elderly patients (N=230) discharged from thegeriatric service (CHUV, Lausanne) over a 6-month period (January toJune 2009) were selected. Community pharmacists compared DS andDP to identify discrepancies including (a) drugs' name; (b) schedule ofadministration, dosage, frequency, prn prescription, treatment durationand galenic formulation. Beers' criteria were applied to identifypotentially inappropriate drugs and a descriptive analysis of drug costs,prescription profiles and generics were also performed.Results On average, patients were 82 ± 7 years old and stayed23.0 ± 11.6 days in the geriatric service. The delay between the datesof patient's discharge with the DP and the sending of the DS to hisgeneral physician averaged 14.0 ± 7.5 days (range 1-55). The DPhad an average of 10.0 ± 3.3 drugs (range 2-19). 77% of patients hadat least one discrepancy. A drug was missing on the DS in 57.8% ofpatients and 19.6% had a missing prn prescription. Among the 2312drugs prescribed, 3% belonged to Beers' list. They were prescribed to61 patients (26.5%), with 6 patients cumulating two Beers' potentiallyinappropriate drugs in their treatment. Analgesics (85% of thepatients), anticoagulants (80%), mineral supplements (77%), laxatives(52%) and antihypertensives (46%) were the drug classes most frequentlyprescribed. Mean costs of treatment as per DP was160.4 ± 179.4 Euros. Generic prescription represented more than 5%of the costs for 3 therapeutic classes (cholesterol-lowering agents(64%), antihypertensives (50%) and antidepressants (47%)).Discussion & Conclusion The high discrepancy rate between medicationlisted in the DP and the DS highlights a need for safetyimprovement. Potential benefits are expected from reinforced pharmacist-physician collaboration in transition from hospital to primarycare. In addition, even though Beers' criteria are questionable, thedrugs prescribed in this already fragile population, and the potentialopportunities of economical optimizations, are advocating thedevelopment and the scientific evaluation of a structured advancedcollaborative pharmacy practice service. This foresees improvedeffectiveness, safety and efficiency in the medication management ofelderly persons.

Des faux documents d'identité au renseignement forensique : développement d'une approche systématique et transversale du traitement de la donnée forensique à des fins de renseignement criminel

La fabrication, la distribution et l'usage de fausses pièces d'identité constituent une menace pour la sécurité autant publique que privée. Ces faux documents représentent en effet un catalyseur pour une multitude de formes de criminalité, des plus anodines aux formes les plus graves et organisées. La dimension, la complexité, la faible visibilité, ainsi que les caractères répétitif et évolutif de la fraude aux documents d'identité appellent des réponses nouvelles qui vont au-delà d'une approche traditionnelle au cas par cas ou de la stratégie du tout technologique dont la perspective historique révèle l'échec. Ces nouvelles réponses passent par un renforcement de la capacité de comprendre les problèmes criminels que posent la fraude aux documents d'identité et les phénomènes qui l'animent. Cette compréhension est tout bonnement nécessaire pour permettre d'imaginer, d'évaluer et de décider les solutions et mesures les plus appropriées. Elle requière de développer les capacités d'analyse et la fonction de renseignement criminel qui fondent en particulier les modèles d'action de sécurité les plus récents, tels que l'intelligence-led policing ou le problem-oriented policing par exemple. Dans ce contexte, le travail doctoral adopte une position originale en postulant que les fausses pièces d'identité se conçoivent utilement comme la trace matérielle ou le vestige résultant de l'activité de fabrication ou d'altération d'un document d'identité menée par les faussaires. Sur la base de ce postulat fondamental, il est avancé que l'exploitation scientifique, méthodique et systématique de ces traces au travers d'un processus de renseignement forensique permet de générer des connaissances phénoménologiques sur les formes de criminalité qui fabriquent, diffusent ou utilisent les fausses pièces d'identité, connaissances qui s'intègrent et se mettent avantageusement au service du renseignement criminel. A l'appui de l'épreuve de cette thèse de départ et de l'étude plus générale du renseignement forensique, le travail doctoral propose des définitions et des modèles. Il décrit des nouvelles méthodes de profilage et initie la constitution d'un catalogue de formes d'analyses. Il recourt également à des expérimentations et des études de cas. Les résultats obtenus démontrent que le traitement systématique de la donnée forensique apporte une contribution utile et pertinente pour le renseignement criminel stratégique, opérationnel et tactique, ou encore la criminologie. Combiné aux informations disponibles par ailleurs, le renseignement forensique produit est susceptible de soutenir l'action de sécurité dans ses dimensions répressive, proactive, préventive et de contrôle. En particulier, les méthodes de profilage des fausses pièces d'identité proposées permettent de révéler des tendances au travers de jeux de données étendus, d'analyser des modus operandi ou d'inférer une communauté ou différence de source. Ces méthodes appuient des moyens de détection et de suivi des séries, des problèmes et des phénomènes criminels qui s'intègrent dans le cadre de la veille opérationnelle. Ils permettent de regrouper par problèmes les cas isolés, de mettre en évidence les formes organisées de criminalité qui méritent le plus d'attention, ou de produire des connaissances robustes et inédites qui offrent une perception plus profonde de la criminalité. Le travail discute également les difficultés associées à la gestion de données et d'informations propres à différents niveaux de généralité, ou les difficultés relatives à l'implémentation du processus de renseignement forensique dans la pratique. Ce travail doctoral porte en premier lieu sur les fausses pièces d'identité et leur traitement par les protagonistes de l'action de sécurité. Au travers d'une démarche inductive, il procède également à une généralisation qui souligne que les observations ci-dessus ne valent pas uniquement pour le traitement systématique des fausses pièces d'identité, mais pour celui de tout type de trace dès lors qu'un profil en est extrait. Il ressort de ces travaux une définition et une compréhension plus transversales de la notion et de la fonction de renseignement forensique. The production, distribution and use of false identity documents constitute a threat to both public and private security. Fraudulent documents are a catalyser for a multitude of crimes, from the most trivial to the most serious and organised forms. The dimension, complexity, low visibility as well as the repetitive and evolving character of the production and use of false identity documents call for new solutions that go beyond the traditional case-by-case approach, or the technology-focused strategy whose failure is revealed by the historic perspective. These new solutions require to strengthen the ability to understand crime phenomena and crime problems posed by false identity documents. Such an understanding is pivotal in order to be able to imagine, evaluate and decide on the most appropriate measures and responses. Therefore, analysis capacities and crime intelligence functions, which found the most recent policing models such as intelligence-led policing or problem-oriented policing for instance, have to be developed. In this context, the doctoral research work adopts an original position by postulating that false identity documents can be usefully perceived as the material remnant resulting from the criminal activity undertook by forgers, namely the manufacture or the modification of identity documents. Based on this fundamental postulate, it is proposed that a scientific, methodical and systematic processing of these traces through a forensic intelligence approach can generate phenomenological knowledge on the forms of crime that produce, distribute and use false identity documents. Such knowledge should integrate and serve advantageously crime intelligence efforts. In support of this original thesis and of a more general study of forensic intelligence, the doctoral work proposes definitions and models. It describes new profiling methods and initiates the construction of a catalogue of analysis forms. It also leverages experimentations and case studies. Results demonstrate that the systematic processing of forensic data usefully and relevantly contributes to strategic, tactical and operational crime intelligence, and also to criminology. Combined with alternative information available, forensic intelligence may support policing in its repressive, proactive, preventive and control activities. In particular, the proposed profiling methods enable to reveal trends among extended datasets, to analyse modus operandi, or to infer that false identity documents have a common or different source. These methods support the detection and follow-up of crime series, crime problems and phenomena and therefore contribute to crime monitoring efforts. They enable to link and regroup by problems cases that were previously viewed as isolated, to highlight organised forms of crime which deserve greatest attention, and to elicit robust and novel knowledge offering a deeper perception of crime. The doctoral research work discusses also difficulties associated with the management of data and information relating to different levels of generality, or difficulties associated with the implementation in practice of the forensic intelligence process. The doctoral work focuses primarily on false identity documents and their treatment by policing stakeholders. However, through an inductive process, it makes a generalisation which underlines that observations do not only apply to false identity documents but to any kind of trace as soon as a profile is extracted. A more transversal definition and understanding of the concept and function of forensic intelligence therefore derives from the doctoral work.

Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can this Be Optimal ?

Motivated by the Chinese experience, we analyze a semi-open economy where the central bank has access to international capital markets, but the private sector has not. This enables the central bank to choose an interest rate different from the international rate. We examine the optimal policy of the central bank by modelling it as a Ramsey planner who can choose the level of domestic public debt and of international reserves. The central bank can improve savings opportunities of credit-constrained consumers modelled as in Woodford (1990). We find that in a steady state it is optimal for the central bank to replicate the open economy, i.e., to issue debt financed by the accumulation of reserves so that the domestic interest rate equals the foreign rate. When the economy is in transition, however, a rapidly growing economy has a higher welfare without capital mobility and the optimal interest rate differs from the international rate. We argue that the domestic interest rate should be temporarily above the international rate. We also find that capital controls can still help reach the first best when the planner has more fiscal instruments.