P value and the theory of hypothesis testing: an explanation for new researchers.

In the 1920s, Ronald Fisher developed the theory behind the p value and Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson developed the theory of hypothesis testing. These distinct theories have provided researchers important quantitative tools to confirm or refute their hypotheses. The p value is the probability to obtain an effect equal to or more extreme than the one observed presuming the null hypothesis of no effect is true; it gives researchers a measure of the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis. As commonly used, investigators will select a threshold p value below which they will reject the null hypothesis. The theory of hypothesis testing allows researchers to reject a null hypothesis in favor of an alternative hypothesis of some effect. As commonly used, investigators choose Type I error (rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true) and Type II error (accepting the null hypothesis when it is false) levels and determine some critical region. If the test statistic falls into that critical region, the null hypothesis is rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis. Despite similarities between the two, the p value and the theory of hypothesis testing are different theories that often are misunderstood and confused, leading researchers to improper conclusions. Perhaps the most common misconception is to consider the p value as the probability that the null hypothesis is true rather than the probability of obtaining the difference observed, or one that is more extreme, considering the null is true. Another concern is the risk that an important proportion of statistically significant results are falsely significant. Researchers should have a minimum understanding of these two theories so that they are better able to plan, conduct, interpret, and report scientific experiments.

Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.

Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS) for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced single events including the location of the ignition points and additional information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes (lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters detected in the northern mountainous area.

The evolutionary host switches of Polychromophilus: a multi-gene phylogeny of the bat malaria genus suggests a second invasion of mammals by a haemosporidian parasite.

BACKGROUND: The majority of Haemosporida species infect birds or reptiles, but many important genera, including Plasmodium, infect mammals. Dipteran vectors shared by avian, reptilian and mammalian Haemosporida, suggest multiple invasions of Mammalia during haemosporidian evolution; yet, phylogenetic analyses have detected only a single invasion event. Until now, several important mammal-infecting genera have been absent in these analyses. This study focuses on the evolutionary origin of Polychromophilus, a unique malaria genus that only infects bats (Microchiroptera) and is transmitted by bat flies (Nycteribiidae). METHODS: Two species of Polychromophilus were obtained from wild bats caught in Switzerland. These were molecularly characterized using four genes (asl, clpc, coI, cytb) from the three different genomes (nucleus, apicoplast, mitochondrion). These data were then combined with data of 60 taxa of Haemosporida available in GenBank. Bayesian inference, maximum likelihood and a range of rooting methods were used to test specific hypotheses concerning the phylogenetic relationships between Polychromophilus and the other haemosporidian genera. RESULTS: The Polychromophilus melanipherus and Polychromophilus murinus samples show genetically distinct patterns and group according to species. The Bayesian tree topology suggests that the monophyletic clade of Polychromophilus falls within the avian/saurian clade of Plasmodium and directed hypothesis testing confirms the Plasmodium origin. CONCLUSION: Polychromophilus' ancestor was most likely a bird- or reptile-infecting Plasmodium before it switched to bats. The invasion of mammals as hosts has, therefore, not been a unique event in the evolutionary history of Haemosporida, despite the suspected costs of adapting to a new host. This was, moreover, accompanied by a switch in dipteran host.

Emotion expression in body action and posture

Emotion communication research strongly focuses on the face and voice as expressive modalities, leaving the rest of the body relatively understudied. Contrary to the early assumption that body movement only indicates emotional intensity, recent studies show that body movement and posture also convey emotion specific information. However, a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms is hampered by a lack of production studies informed by a theoretical framework. In this research we adopted the Body Action and Posture (BAP) coding system to examine the types and patterns of body movement that are employed by 10 professional actors to portray a set of 12 emotions. We investigated to what extent these expression patterns support explicit or implicit predictions from basic emotion theory, bi-dimensional theory, and componential appraisal theory. The overall results showed partial support for the different theoretical approaches. They revealed that several patterns of body movement systematically occur in portrayals of specific emotions, allowing emotion differentiation. While a few emotions were prototypically encoded by one particular pattern, most emotions were variably expressed by multiple patterns, many of which can be explained as reflecting functional components of emotion such as modes of appraisal and action readiness. It is concluded that further work in this largely underdeveloped area should be guided by an appropriate theoretical framework to allow a more systematic design of experiments and clear hypothesis testing.

Testing the predictive adaptive response in a host-parasite system

1. Harsh environmental conditions experienced during development can reduce the performance of the same individuals in adulthood. However, the 'predictive adaptive response' hypothesis postulates that if individuals adapt their phenotype during development to the environments where they are likely to live in the future, individuals exposed to harsh conditions in early life perform better when encountering the same harsh conditions in adulthood compared to those never exposed to these conditions before. 2. Using the common vole (Microtus arvalis) as study organism, we tested how exposure to flea parasitism during the juvenile stage affects the physiology (haematocrit, resistance to oxidative stress, resting metabolism, spleen mass, and testosterone), morphology (body mass, testis mass) and motor performance (open field activity and swimming speed) of the same individuals when infested with fleas in adulthood. According to the 'predictive adaptive response' hypothesis, we predicted that voles parasitized at the adult stage would perform better if they had already been parasitized with fleas at the juvenile stage. 3. We found that voles exposed to fleas in adulthood had a higher metabolic rate if already exposed to fleas when juvenile, compared to voles free of fleas when juvenile and voles free of fleas in adulthood. Independently of juvenile parasitism, adult parasitism impaired adult haematocrit and motor performances. Independently of adult parasitism, juvenile parasitism slowed down crawling speed in adult female voles. 4. Our results suggest that juvenile parasitism has long-term effects that do not protect from the detrimental effects of adult parasitism. On the contrary, experiencing parasitism in early-life incurs additional costs upon adult parasitism measured in terms of higher energy expenditure, rather than inducing an adaptive shift in the developmental trajectory. 5. Hence, our study provides experimental evidence for long term costs of parasitism. We found no support for a predictive adaptive response in this host-parasite system.

Phylogeographical structure, postglacial recolonization and barriers to gene flow in the distinctive Valais chromosome race of the common shrew (Sorex araneus).

Using one male-inherited and eight biparentally inherited microsatellite markers, we investigate the population genetic structure of the Valais chromosome race of the common shrew (Sorex araneus) in the Central Alps of Europe. Unexpectedly, the Y-chromosome microsatellite suggests nearly complete absence of male gene flow among populations from the St-Bernard and Simplon regions (Switzerland). Autosomal markers also show significant genetic structuring among these two geographical areas. Isolation by distance is significant and possible barriers to gene flow exist in the study area. Two different approaches are used to better understand the geographical patterns and the causes of this structuring. Using a principal component analysis for which testing procedure exists, and partial Mantel tests, we show that the St-Bernard pass does not represent a significant barrier to gene flow although it culminates at 2469 m, close to the highest altitudinal record for this species. Similar results are found for the Simplon pass, indicating that both passes represented potential postglacial recolonization routes into Switzerland from Italian refugia after the last Pleistocene glaciations. In contrast with the weak effect of these mountain passes, the Rhône valley lowlands significantly reduce gene flow in this species. Natural obstacles (the large Rhône river) and unsuitable habitats (dry slopes) are both present in the valley. Moreover, anthropogenic changes to landscape structures are likely to have strongly reduced available habitats for this shrew in the lowlands, thereby promoting genetic differentiation of populations found on opposite sides of the Rhône valley.

Testing differentiation in diploid populations.

We examine the power of different exact tests of differentiation for diploid populations. Since there is not necessarily random mating within populations, the appropriate hypothesis to construct exact tests is that of independent sampling of genotypes. There are two categories of tests, FST-estimator tests and goodness of fit tests. In this latter category, we distinguish "allelic statistics", which account for the nature of alleles within genotypes, from "genotypic statistics" that do not. We show that the power of FST-estimator tests and of allelic goodness of fit tests are similar when sampling is balanced, and higher than the power of genotypic goodness of fit tests. When sampling is unbalanced, the most powerful tests are shown to belong to the allelic goodness of fit group.

A cross-sectional survey of attitudes to HIV risk and rapid HIV testing among clients of sex workers in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVES: To assess attitudes to HIV risk and acceptability of rapid HIV testing among clients of street-based female sex workers (FSW) in Lausanne, Switzerland, where HIV prevalence in the general population is 0.4%. METHODS: The authors conducted a cross-sectional study in the red light district of Lausanne for five nights in September of 2008, 2009 and 2010. Clients of FSW were invited to complete a questionnaire in the street assessing demographic characteristics, attitudes to HIV risk and HIV testing history. All clients interviewed were then offered anonymous finger stick rapid HIV testing in a van parked on-site. RESULTS: The authors interviewed 112, 127 and 79 clients in 2008, 2009 and 2010, respectively. All were men, average age 32-37 years old; 40-60% were in a stable relationship. History of unprotected sex was higher with non-commercial partners (33-50%) than with FSW (6-11%); 29-46% of clients had never undergone an HIV test. Anonymous rapid HIV testing was accepted by 45-50% of clients. Out of 109 HIV tests conducted during the three study periods, none was reactive. CONCLUSIONS: On-site HIV counselling and testing is acceptable among clients of FSW in this urban setting. These individuals represent an unquantified population, a proportion of which has an incomplete understanding of HIV risk in the face of high-risk behaviour, with implications for potential onward transmission to non-commercial sexual partners.

Anti-doping testing at the 2008 European football championship.

Big sports events like the 2008 European Football Championship are a challenge for anti-doping activities, particularly when the sports event is hosted by two different countries and there are two laboratories accredited by the World Anti-Doping Agency. This challenges the logistics of sample collection as well as the chemical analyses, which must be carried out timeously. The following paper discusses the handling of whereabouts information for each athlete and the therapeutic use exemption system, experiences in sample collection and transportation of blood and urine samples, and the results of the chemical analysis in two different accredited laboratories. An overview of the analytical results of blood profiling and growth hormone testing in comparison with the distribution of the normal population is also presented.

Response of bat species to sylvo-pastoral abandonment

We assessed the effect of abandonment of sylvo-pastoral practices in chestnut orchards (Castanea sativa) on bats in southern Switzerland to determine practical recommendations for bat conservation. We compared bat species richness and foraging activities between traditionally managed and unmanaged chestnut orchards, testing the hypothesis that managed orchards provide better foraging opportunities and harbour more bat species. Echolocation calls of foraging bats were sampled simultaneously at paired sites of managed and unmanaged orchards using custom made recorders. Vegetation structure and aerial insect availability were sampled at the recording sites and used as explanatory variables in the model. In a paired sampling design, we found twice the number of bat species (12) and five times higher total foraging activity in the managed chestnut orchards compared to the unmanaged ones. Bat species with low flight manoeuvrability were 14 times more common in managed orchards, whereas bats with medium to high manoeuvrability were only 5 times more common than in abandoned orchards. The vegetation structure was less dense in managed orchards. However, management did not affect relative insect abundance. Bats primarily visited the most open orchards, free of undergrowth. As a result of restricted access into the overgrown forests, the abandonment of chestnut orchards leads to a decline in bat species richness and foraging activities. Continued management of chestnut orchards to maintain an open structure is important for the conservation of endangered bat species in the southern Swiss Alps.

Why do females mate with multiple males ? The sexually selected sperm hypothesis

One debated issues in evolutionary biology is, why in many species females mate with multiple males. Several hypotheses have been put forward, yet the benefits of multiple mating (here defined as mating with several males) remain unclear in many cases. The sperm sexual selection (SSS) hypothesis has been developed to account for the widespread occurrence of multiple mating in females. It argues that multiple mating by females may rapidly spread, when initially a small fraction of the females mate multiply, and if there is a heritable difference among males in one or several of the four characteristics: (1) the quantity of sperm they produce; (2) the success of their sperm in reaching and fertilizing an egg; (3) their ability to displace the sperm that females stored during previous mating; and (4) their ability to prevent any other male from subsequently introducing sperm (e.g., differential efficiency of mating plugs).

NEW METHODS FOR DETECTION, SUSCEPTIBILITY TESTING AND BIOFILM ERADICATION OF DIFFICULT ORGANISMS

Aujourd'hui, les problèmes des maladies infectieuses concernent l'émergence d'infections difficiles à traiter, telles que les infections associées aux implants et les infections fongiques invasives chez les patients immunodéprimés. L'objectif de cette thèse était de développer des stratégies pour l'éradication des biofilms bactériens (partie 1), ainsi que d'étudier des méthodes innovantes pour la détection microbienne, pour l'établissement de nouveaux tests de sensibilité (partie 2). Le traitement des infections associées aux implants est difficile car les biofilms bactériens peuvent résister à des niveaux élevés d'antibiotiques. A ce jour, il n'y a pas de traitement optimal défini contre des infections causées par des bactéries de prévalence moindre telles que Enterococcus faecalis ou Propionibacterium acnés. Dans un premier temps, nous avons démontré une excellente activité in vitro de la gentamicine sur une souche de E. faecalis en phase stationnaire de croissance Nous avons ensuite confirmé l'activité de la gentamicine sur un biofilm précoce en modèle expérimental animal à corps étranger avec un taux de guérison de 50%. De plus, les courbes de bactéricidie ainsi que les résultats de calorimétrie ont prouvé que l'ajout de gentamicine améliorait l'activité in vitro de la daptomycine, ainsi que celle de la vancomycine. In vivo, le schéma thérapeutique le plus efficace était l'association daptomycine/gentamicine avec un taux de guérison de 55%. En établissant une nouvelle méthode pour l'évaluation de l'activité des antimicrobiens vis-à-vis de micro-organismes en biofilm, nous avons démontré que le meilleur antibiotique actif sur les biofilms à P. acnés était la rifampicine, suivi par la penicilline G, la daptomycine et la ceftriaxone. Les études conduites en modèle expérimental animal ont confirmé l'activité de la rifampicine seule avec un taux de guérison 36%. Le meilleur schéma thérapeutique était au final l'association rifampicine/daptomycine avec un taux de guérison 63%. Les associations de rifampicine avec la vancomycine ou la levofloxacine présentaient des taux de guérisons respectivement de 46% et 25%. Nous avons ensuite étudié l'émergence in vitro de la résistance à la rifampicine chez P. acnés. Nous avons observé un taux de mutations de 10"9. La caractérisation moléculaire de la résistance chez les mutant-résistants a mis en évidence l'implication de 5 mutations ponctuelles dans les domaines I et II du gène rpoB. Ce type de mutations a déjà été décrit au préalable chez d'autres espèces bactériennes, corroborant ainsi la validité de nos résultats. La deuxième partie de cette thèse décrit une nouvelle méthode d'évaluation de l'efficacité des antifongiques basée sur des mesures de microcalorimétrie isotherme. En utilisant un microcalorimètre, la chaleur produite par la croissance microbienne peut être-mesurée en temps réel, très précisément. Nous avons évalué l'activité de l'amphotéricine B, des triazolés et des échinocandines sur différentes souches de Aspergillus spp. par microcalorimétrie. La présence d'amphotéricine Β ou de triazole retardait la production de chaleur de manière concentration-dépendante. En revanche, pour les échinochandines, seule une diminution le pic de « flux de chaleur » a été observé. La concordance entre la concentration minimale inhibitrice de chaleur (CMIC) et la CMI ou CEM (définie par CLSI M38A), avec une marge de 2 dilutions, était de 90% pour l'amphotéricine B, 100% pour le voriconazole, 90% pour le pozoconazole et 70% pour la caspofongine. La méthode a été utilisée pour définir la sensibilité aux antifongiques pour d'autres types de champignons filamenteux. Par détermination microcalorimétrique, l'amphotéricine B s'est avéré être l'agent le plus actif contre les Mucorales et les Fusarium spp.. et le voriconazole le plus actif contre les Scedosporium spp. Finalement, nous avons évalué l'activité d'associations d'antifongiques vis-à-vis de Aspergillus spp. Une meilleure activité antifongique était retrouvée avec l'amphotéricine B ou le voriconazole lorsque ces derniers étaient associés aux échinocandines vis-à-vis de A. fumigatus. L'association échinocandine/amphotéricine B a démontré une activité antifongique synergique vis-à-vis de A. terreus, contrairement à l'association échinocandine/voriconazole qui ne démontrait aucune amélioration significative de l'activité antifongique. - The diagnosis and treatment of infectious diseases are today increasingly challenged by the emergence of difficult-to-manage situations, such as infections associated with medical devices and invasive fungal infections, especially in immunocompromised patients. The aim of this thesis was to address these challenges by developing new strategies for eradication of biofilms of difficult-to-treat microorganisms (treatment, part 1) and investigating innovative methods for microbial detection and antimicrobial susceptibility testing (diagnosis, part 2). The first part of the thesis investigates antimicrobial treatment strategies for infections caused by two less investigated microorganisms, Enterococcus faecalis and Propionibacterium acnes, which are important pathogens causing implant-associated infections. The treatment of implant-associated infections is difficult in general due to reduced susceptibility of bacteria when present in biofilms. We demonstrated an excellent in vitro activity of gentamicin against E. faecalis in stationary growth- phase and were able to confirm the activity against "young" biofilms (3 hours) in an experimental foreign-body infection model (cure rate 50%). The addition of gentamicin improved the activity of daptomycin and vancomycin in vitro, as determined by time-kill curves and microcalorimetry. In vivo, the most efficient combination regimen was daptomycin plus gentamicin (cure rate 55%). Despite a short duration of infection, the cure rates were low, highlighting that enterococcal biofilms remain difficult to treat despite administration of newer antibiotics, such as daptomycin. By establishing a novel in vitro assay for evaluation of anti-biofilm activity (microcalorimetry), we demonstrated that rifampin was the most active antimicrobial against P. acnes biofilms, followed by penicillin G, daptomycin and ceftriaxone. In animal studies we confirmed the anti-biofilm activity of rifampin (cure rate 36% when administered alone), as well as in combination with daptomycin (cure rate 63%), whereas in combination with vancomycin or levofloxacin it showed lower cure rates (46% and 25%, respectively). We further investigated the emergence of rifampin resistance in P. acnes in vitro. Rifampin resistance progressively emerged during exposure to rifampin, if the bacterial concentration was high (108 cfu/ml) with a mutation rate of 10"9. In resistant isolates, five point mutations of the rpoB gene were found in cluster I and II, as previously described for staphylococci and other bacterial species. The second part of the thesis describes a novel real-time method for evaluation of antifungals against molds, based on measurements of the growth-related heat production by isothermal microcalorimetry. Current methods for evaluation of antifungal agents against molds, have several limitations, especially when combinations of antifungals are investigated. We evaluated the activity of amphotericin B, triazoles (voriconazole, posaconazole) and echinocandins (caspofungin and anidulafungin) against Aspergillus spp. by microcalorimetry. The presence of amphotericin Β or a triazole delayed the heat production in a concentration-dependent manner and the minimal heat inhibition concentration (MHIC) was determined as the lowest concentration inhibiting 50% of the heat produced at 48 h. Due to the different mechanism of action echinocandins, the MHIC for this antifungal class was determined as the lowest concentration lowering the heat-flow peak with 50%. Agreement within two 2-fold dilutions between MHIC and MIC or MEC (determined by CLSI M38A) was 90% for amphotericin B, 100% for voriconazole, 90% for posaconazole and 70% for caspofungin. We further evaluated our assay for antifungal susceptibility testing of non-Aspergillus molds. As determined by microcalorimetry, amphotericin Β was the most active agent against Mucorales and Fusarium spp., whereas voriconazole was the most active agent against Scedosporium spp. Finally, we evaluated the activity of antifungal combinations against Aspergillus spp. Against A. jumigatus, an improved activity of amphotericin Β and voriconazole was observed when combined with an echinocandin. Against A. terreus, an echinocandin showed a synergistic activity with amphotericin B, whereas in combination with voriconazole, no considerable improved activity was observed.

Phylogeographical footprints of the Strait of Gibraltar and Quaternary climatic fluctuations in the western Mediterranean: a case study with the greater white-toothed shrew, Crocidura russula (Mammalia: Soricidae).

We used mitochondrial cyt b sequences to investigate the phylogenetic relationships of Crocidura russula (sensu lato) populations across the Strait of Gibraltar, western Europe, Maghreb, and the Mediterranean and Atlantic islands. This revealed very low genetic divergence between European and Moroccan populations. The application of a molecular clock previously calibrated for shrews suggested that the separation of European from Moroccan lineages occurred less than 60 000 bp, which is at least 5 million years (Myr) after the reopening of the Strait of Gibraltar. This means that an overwater dispersal event was responsible for the observed phylogeographical structure. In contrast, genetic analyses revealed that Moroccan populations were highly distinct from Tunisian ones. According to the molecular clock, these populations separated about 2.2 million years ago (Ma), a time marked by sharp alternations of dry and humid climates in the Maghreb. The populations of the Mediterranean islands Ibiza, Pantelleria, and Sardinia were founded from Tunisian populations by overwater dispersal. In conclusion, overwater dispersal across the Strait of Gibraltar, probably assisted by humans, is possible for small terrestrial vertebrates. Moreover, as in Europe, Quaternary climatic fluctuations had a major effect on the phylogeographical structure of the Maghreb biota.