Dynamic Modelling of Material Flows and Sustainable Resource Use: Case Studies in Regional Metabolism and Space Life Support Systems

Sustainable resource use is one of the most important environmental issues of our times. It is closely related to discussions on the 'peaking' of various natural resources serving as energy sources, agricultural nutrients, or metals indispensable in high-technology applications. Although the peaking theory remains controversial, it is commonly recognized that a more sustainable use of resources would alleviate negative environmental impacts related to resource use. In this thesis, sustainable resource use is analysed from a practical standpoint, through several different case studies. Four of these case studies relate to resource metabolism in the Canton of Geneva in Switzerland: the aim was to model the evolution of chosen resource stocks and flows in the coming decades. The studied resources were copper (a bulk metal), phosphorus (a vital agricultural nutrient), and wood (a renewable resource). In addition, the case of lithium (a critical metal) was analysed briefly in a qualitative manner and in an electric mobility perspective. In addition to the Geneva case studies, this thesis includes a case study on the sustainability of space life support systems. Space life support systems are systems whose aim is to provide the crew of a spacecraft with the necessary metabolic consumables over the course of a mission. Sustainability was again analysed from a resource use perspective. In this case study, the functioning of two different types of life support systems, ARES and BIORAT, were evaluated and compared; these systems represent, respectively, physico-chemical and biological life support systems. Space life support systems could in fact be used as a kind of 'laboratory of sustainability' given that they represent closed and relatively simple systems compared to complex and open terrestrial systems such as the Canton of Geneva. The chosen analysis method used in the Geneva case studies was dynamic material flow analysis: dynamic material flow models were constructed for the resources copper, phosphorus, and wood. Besides a baseline scenario, various alternative scenarios (notably involving increased recycling) were also examined. In the case of space life support systems, the methodology of material flow analysis was also employed, but as the data available on the dynamic behaviour of the systems was insufficient, only static simulations could be performed. The results of the case studies in the Canton of Geneva show the following: were resource use to follow population growth, resource consumption would be multiplied by nearly 1.2 by 2030 and by 1.5 by 2080. A complete transition to electric mobility would be expected to only slightly (+5%) increase the copper consumption per capita while the lithium demand in cars would increase 350 fold. For example, phosphorus imports could be decreased by recycling sewage sludge or human urine; however, the health and environmental impacts of these options have yet to be studied. Increasing the wood production in the Canton would not significantly decrease the dependence on wood imports as the Canton's production represents only 5% of total consumption. In the comparison of space life support systems ARES and BIORAT, BIORAT outperforms ARES in resource use but not in energy use. However, as the systems are dimensioned very differently, it remains questionable whether they can be compared outright. In conclusion, the use of dynamic material flow analysis can provide useful information for policy makers and strategic decision-making; however, uncertainty in reference data greatly influences the precision of the results. Space life support systems constitute an extreme case of resource-using systems; nevertheless, it is not clear how their example could be of immediate use to terrestrial systems.

T-cell receptor V beta use predicts reactivity and tolerance to Mlsa-encoded antigens.

T lymphocytes reactive with the product of the Mlsa-allele of the minor lymphocyte stimulating (Mls) locus use a predominant T-cell receptor beta-chain variable gene segment (V beta 6). Such V beta 6-bearing T cells are selectively eliminated in the thymus of Mlsa-bearing mice, consistent with a model in which tolerance to self antigens is achieved by clonal deletion.

Donor-derived aspergillosis from use of a solid organ recipient as a multiorgan donor.

The growing need for organs and the scarcity of donors has resulted in an increased use of extended criteria donors. We report a case where a recipient of a cardiac graft was used as an organ donor. Death of the recipient occurred 9 days after transplantation and was attributed to presumed cerebral hemorrhage, which post mortem was diagnosed as invasive aspergillosis of the brain. One recipient of a kidney transplant lost the graft due to infection with Aspergillus fumigatus, whereas prompt initiation of therapy successfully prevented disseminated aspergillosis in the other recipients. Despite the pressure to extend the use of organs by lowering the acceptance criteria, organs should only be accepted if the cause of death of the donors is unequivocally explained.

Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown

Substance use among sportive adolescents in the French-speaking part of Switzerland

[Contents] Introduction. Objectives. Methodology. Results. Characteristics of the sample. Substance use (Psychoactive substances, Performance-enhancing substances). Profile of sportive adolescents using substances. Mixed substance use. Other factors related to substance use. Inactivity. Conclusions. References. Annexes. Annex 1. Questionnaire. Annex 2. Sample weighting procedure. Annex 3. Sports type.

Use of limitations of radiolabeled anti-CEA antibodies and their fragments for photoscanning detection of human colorectal carcinomas.

Fifty-three patients with histologically proven carcinoma were injected with highly purified [131I]-labeled goat antibodies or fragments of antibodies against carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). Each patient was tested by external photoscanning 4, 24, 36 and 48 h after injection. In 22 patients (16 of 38 injected with intact antibodies, 5 of 13 with F(ab')2 fragments and 1 of 2 with Fab' fragments), an increased concentration of 131I radioactivity corresponding to the previously known tumor location was detected by photoscanning 36-48 h after injection. Blood pool and secreted radioactivity was determined in all patients by injecting 15 min before scanning, [99mTc]-labeled normal serum albumin and free 99mTc04-. The computerized subtraction of 99mTc from 131I radioactivity enhanced the definition of tumor localization in the 22 positive patients. However, in spite of the computerized subtraction, interpretation of the scans remained doubtful for 12 patients and was entirely negative for 19 additional patients. In order to provide a more objective evaluation for the specificity of the tumor localization of antibodies, 14 patients scheduled for tumor resection were injected simultaneously with [131I]-labeled antibodies or fragments and with [125I]-labeled normal goat IgG or fragments. After surgery, the radioactivity of the two isotopes present either in tumor or adjacent normal tissues was measured in a dual channel scintillation counter. The results showed that the antibodies or their fragments were 2-4 times more concentrated in the tumor than in the normal tissues. In addition, it was shown that the injected antibodies formed immune complexes with circulating CEA and that the amount of immune complexes detectable in serum was roughly proportional to the level of circulating CEA.

Substance use and depression. Comparative course in adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relation between depression and substance use in adolescents and the concomitant courses of both disorders. METHODS: Four individual interviews were administered to 85 adolescent substance users aged 14-19 years (mean 17.1 years, SD 1.4) over a 3.5 year period using the Adolescent Drug Abuse Interview (ADAD) and the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-13). RESULTS: No predictive effect was observed on one dimension over the other, but each dimension was predictive of its own course. A decrease in substance-use severity paralleled a decrease in depressive state. Similarly, stable substance-use rates, either at a low or a high level, tended to be associated with low or high levels of depression, respectively. However, an increase in substance use was not accompanied by an increase in depressive states. Moreover, depression varied greatly between adolescents, and according to gender and age. CONCLUSIONS: Depressive states and substance use in adolescents can vary considerably overtime, and are closely but rather synchronically related. Since most of the adolescents do not seek help for substance-related problems, substance use should be systematically assessed in adolescents presenting with a depressive state.

Alcohol and relatively pure cannabis use, but not schizotypy, are associated with cognitive attenuations

Elevated schizotypy relates to similar cognitive attenuations as seen in psychosis and cannabis/polydrug use. Also, in schizotypal populations cannabis and polydrug (including licit drug) use are enhanced.These cognitive attenuations may therefore either be a behavioral marker of psychotic (-like) symptoms or the consequence of enhanced drug use in schizotypal populations.To elucidate this, we investigated the link between cognitive attenuation and cannabis use in largely pure cannabis users (35) and non-using controls (48), accounting for the potential additional influence of both schizotypy and licit drug use (alcohol, nicotine). Cognitive attenuations commonly seen in psychosis were associated with cannabis and alcohol use, but not schizotypy. Future studies should therefore consider (i) non-excessive licit substance use (e.g., alcohol) in studies investigating the effect of cannabis use on cognition and (ii) both enhanced illicit and licit substance use in studies investigating cognition in schizotypal populations.

Utilisation de la coronarographie en Suisse: une étude de population. [The use of coronary vessel radiography in Switzerland: a population study].

All patients having undergone a coronarography during 1984 have been surveyed in Switzerland. This retrospective study has used existing data in the 13 centers practicing this diagnostic procedure. 4921 coronarographies were carried out in 1984, amongst 4359 patients. In terms of population-based rates, the national figures are 77 procedures/100,000 residents, and 68 patients/100,000 residents. Female rates are one fourth of the male rates (27/100,000 versus 112/100,000). For both sexes, the highest utilization rates are for the age groups 60-64. Swiss figures are relatively low when compared with other developed countries. However, patterns of utilization are very different within the country: according to the Canton of residence of the patient, the utilization rates (standardized for age and sex) vary from 8/100,000 to 160/100,000. There is a distinct gradient from south-west to north-east, which closely corresponds to the distribution of centers practicing the procedure. More intriguing is the fact that cardiovascular mortality shows an inverse geographical gradient, with the highest mortality in Cantons having the lowest rate of coronarography. Various reasons for the observed variations are discussed, in relation with differences in supply of diagnostic and therapeutic equipments, but also in relation with various patterns of demand related to differential morbidity rates and/or differential patterns of clinical decision.

Use of DNA profiles for investigation using a simulated national DNA database: Part I. Partial SGM Plus profiles.

In traditional criminal investigation, uncertainties are often dealt with using a combination of common sense, practical considerations and experience, but rarely with tailored statistical models. For example, in some countries, in order to search for a given profile in the national DNA database, it must have allelic information for six or more of the ten SGM Plus loci for a simple trace. If the profile does not have this amount of information then it cannot be searched in the national DNA database (NDNAD). This requirement (of a result at six or more loci) is not based on a statistical approach, but rather on the feeling that six or more would be sufficient. A statistical approach, however, could be more rigorous and objective and would take into consideration factors such as the probability of adventitious matches relative to the actual database size and/or investigator's requirements in a sensible way. Therefore, this research was undertaken to establish scientific foundations pertaining to the use of partial SGM Plus loci profiles (or similar) for investigation.