High quantitative and no molecular differentiation of a freshwater snail (Galba truncatula) between temporary and permanent water habitats.

We investigate the variation in quantitative and molecular traits in the freshwater snail Galba truncatula, from permanent and temporary water habitats. Using a common garden experiment, we measured 20 quantitative traits and molecular variation using seven microsatellites in 17 populations belonging to these two habitats. We estimated trait means in each habitat. We also estimated the distributions of overall genetic quantitative variation (QST), and of molecular variation (FST), within and between habitats. Overall, we observed a lack of association between molecular and quantitative variance. Among habitats, we found QST>FST, an indication of selection for different optima. Individuals from temporary water habitat matured older, at a larger size and were less fecund than individuals from permanent water habitat. We discuss these findings in the light of several theories for life-history traits evolution.

Groundwater fluctuations and footslope ferricrete soils in the humid tropical zone of southern Cameroon

This paper discusses the relationship between the differentiation of ferruginous accumulations and the variable water saturation of footslope soil patterns. An analysis of the slope morphology of a typical hill in the forest zone of southern Cameroon and a seasonal survey of the levels of groundwaters, springs and rivers were considered in relation to the petrology of different soil patterns. The study site is a tabular hillock whose slopes present a progressive development from steep to gentle slopes. The variable residence time of water within the soil, creating an alternation of reducing and oxidizing conditions, affects oil chemistry, structure and lateral extension of the soil patterns. The ferruginous soil patterns, being formed on the footslopes, gradually increase in extent with decreasing slope angle and the relative rise of the groundwater level. The steep footslopes, where groundwater has a shorter residence time, show a soft mottled clay pattern, restricted to the bottom part of the slope. The moderate footslopes exhibit a deep permanent and a temporary perched groundwater table. The latter, with its regular capillary fringe, contributes to more reducing conditions within isolated domains in the soil patterns, and thus to the alternation with oxidizing conditions, generating a continuous hard soil pattern (massive carapace). The more gently dipping footslopes exhibit groundwater levels near the surface and also a significant amplitude of groundwater fluctuation. Iron, previously accumulated in moderate footslope patterns, is reduced, remobilized, and leached. The soil patterns formed develop into a variegated carapace, more extended along the slope, containing less iron, but nevertheless more hardened, due to the important fluctuations of the groundwater table. These patterns are limited to the zone of groundwater fluctuation and deteriorate as the water fluctuation zone recedes. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Structural macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates

This work consists of three essays investigating the ability of structural macroeconomic models to price zero coupon U.S. government bonds. 1. A small scale 3 factor DSGE model implying constant term premium is able to provide reasonable a fit for the term structure only at the expense of the persistence parameters of the structural shocks. The test of the structural model against one that has constant but unrestricted prices of risk parameters shows that the exogenous prices of risk-model is only weakly preferred. We provide an MLE based variance-covariance matrix of the Metropolis Proposal Density that improves convergence speeds in MCMC chains. 2. Affine in observable macro-variables, prices of risk specification is excessively flexible and provides term-structure fit without significantly altering the structural parameters. The exogenous component of the SDF is separating the macro part of the model from the term structure and the good term structure fit has as a driving force an extremely volatile SDF and an implied average short rate that is inexplicable. We conclude that the no arbitrage restrictions do not suffice to temper the SDF, thus there is need for more restrictions. We introduce a penalty-function methodology that proves useful in showing that affine prices of risk specifications are able to reconcile stable macro-dynamics with good term structure fit and a plausible SDF. 3. The level factor is reproduced most importantly by the preference shock to which it is strongly and positively related but technology and monetary shocks, with negative loadings, are also contributing to its replication. The slope factor is only related to the monetary policy shocks and it is poorly explained. We find that there are gains in in- and out-of-sample forecast of consumption and inflation if term structure information is used in a time varying hybrid prices of risk setting. In-sample yield forecast are better in models with non-stationary shocks for the period 1982-1988. After this period, time varying market price of risk models provide better in-sample forecasts. For the period 2005-2008, out of sample forecast of consumption and inflation are better if term structure information is incorporated in the DSGE model but yields are better forecasted by a pure macro DSGE model.

What spatial data do we need to develop global mammal conservation strategies?

Spatial data on species distributions are available in two main forms, point locations and distribution maps (polygon ranges and grids). The first are often temporally and spatially biased, and too discontinuous, to be useful (untransformed) in spatial analyses. A variety of modelling approaches are used to transform point locations into maps. We discuss the attributes that point location data and distribution maps must satisfy in order to be useful in conservation planning. We recommend that before point location data are used to produce and/or evaluate distribution models, the dataset should be assessed under a set of criteria, including sample size, age of data, environmental/geographical coverage, independence, accuracy, time relevance and (often forgotten) representation of areas of permanent and natural presence of the species. Distribution maps must satisfy additional attributes if used for conservation analyses and strategies, including minimizing commission and omission errors, credibility of the source/assessors and availability for public screening. We review currently available databases for mammals globally and show that they are highly variable in complying with these attributes. The heterogeneity and weakness of spatial data seriously constrain their utility to global and also sub-global scale conservation analyses.

The hemodynamics of septic shock: a historical perspective.

In the late 19th century, it was already known that severe infections could be associated with cardiovascular collapse, a fact essentially attributed to cardiac failure. A major experimental work in the rabbit, published by Romberg and Pässler in 1899, shifted attention to disturbed peripheral vascular tone as the mechanism of hypotension in these conditions. In the first half of the 20th century, great progresses were made in the pathophysiologic understanding of hemorrhagic and traumatic shocks, while researchers devoted relatively little attention to septic shock. Progress in the hemodynamic understanding of septic shock resumed with the advent of critical care units. The hyperdynamic state was recognized in the late fifties and early sixties. The present short review ends with landmark studies by Max Harry Weil, demonstrating the importance of venous pooling, and John H. Siegel, which introduced the concept of deficient peripheral utilization of oxygen, inspiring later work on the microvascular disturbances of septic shock.

Clinical evolution after a non-reactive hypothermic EEG following cardiac arrest.

BACKGROUND: Lack of electroencephalography (EEG) background reactivity during therapeutic hypothermia (TH) has been associated with poor outcome in post-anoxic comatose patients. However, decision on intensive care withdrawal is based on normothermic (NT) evaluations. This study aims at exploring whether patients showing recovery of EEG reactivity in NT after a non-reactive EEG in TH differ from those remaining non-reactive. METHODS: Patients with non-reactive EEG during TH were identified from our prospective registry of consecutive comatose adults admitted after successful resuscitation from CA between April 2009 and June 2014. Variables including neurological examination, serum neuron-specific enolase (NSE), procalcitonin, and EEG features were compared regarding impact on functional outcome at 3 months. RESULTS: Seventy-two of 197 patients (37 %) had a non-reactive EEG background during TH with thirteen (18 %) evolving towards reactivity in NT. Compared to those remaining non-reactive (n = 59), they showed significantly better recovery of brainstem reflexes (p < 0.001), better motor responses (p < 0.001), transitory consciousness improvement (p = 0.008), and a tendency toward lower NSE (p = 0.067). One patient recovering EEG reactivity survived with good functional outcome at 3 months. CONCLUSIONS: Recovery of EEG reactivity from TH to NT seems to distinguish two patients' subgroups regarding early neurological assessment and transitory consciousness improvement, corroborating the role of EEG in providing information about cerebral functions. Understanding these dynamic changes encourages maintenance of intensive support in selected patients even after a non-reactive EEG background in TH, as a small subgroup may indeed recover with good functional outcome.

Auditory Neurons with Transitory Axons to Visual Areas Form Short Permanent Projections.

The kitten's auditory cortex (including the first and second auditory fields AI and AII) is known to send transient axons to either ipsi- or contralateral visual areas 17 and 18. By the end of the first postnatal month the transitory axons, but not their neurons of origin, are eliminated. Here we investigated where these neurons project after the elimination of the transitory axon. Eighteen kittens received early (postnatal day (pd) 2 - 5) injections of long lasting retrograde fluorescent traces in visual areas 17 and 18 and late (pd 35 - 64) injections of other retrograde fluorescent tracers in either hemisphere, mostly in areas known to receive projections from AI and AII in the adult cat. The middle ectosylvian gyrus was analysed for double-labelled neurons in the region corresponding approximately to AI and AII. Late injections in the contralateral (to the analysed AI, AII) hemisphere including all of the known auditory areas, as well as some visual and 'association' areas, did not relabel neurons which had had transient projections to either ipsi- or contralateral visual areas 17 - 18. Thus, AI and AII neurons after eliminating their transient juvenile projections to visual areas 17 and 18 do not project to the other hemisphere. In contrast, relabelling was obtained with late injections in several locations in the ipsilateral hemisphere; it was expressed as per cent of the population labelled by the early injections. Few neurons (0 - 2.5%) were relabelled by large injections in the caudal part of the posterior ectosylvian gyrus and the adjacent posterior suprasylvian sulcus (areas DP, P, VP). Multiple injections in the middle ectosylvian gyrus relabelled a considerably larger percentage of neurons (13%). Single small injections in the middle ectosylvian gyrus (areas AI, AII), the caudal part of the anterior ectosylvian gyrus and the rostral part of the posterior ectosylvian gyrus relabelled 3.1 - 7.0% of neurons. These neurons were generally near (&lt;2.0 mm) the outer border of the late injection sites. Neurons with transient projections to ipsi- or contralateral visual areas 17 and 18 were relabelled in similar proportions by late injections at any given location. Thus, AI or AII neurons which send a transitory axon to ipsi- or contralateral visual areas 17 and 18 are most likely to form short permanent cortical connections. In that respect, they are similar to medial area 17 neurons that form transitory callosal axons and short permanent axons to ipsilateral visual areas 17 and 18.

Predictors of temporary and permanent work disability in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: results of the swiss inflammatory bowel disease cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory bowel disease can decrease the quality of life and induce work disability. We sought to (1) identify and quantify the predictors of disease-specific work disability in patients with inflammatory bowel disease and (2) assess the suitability of using cross-sectional data to predict future outcomes, using the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study data. METHODS: A total of 1187 patients were enrolled and followed up for an average of 13 months. Predictors included patient and disease characteristics and drug utilization. Potential predictors were identified through an expert panel and published literature. We estimated adjusted effect estimates with 95% confidence intervals using logistic and zero-inflated Poisson regression. RESULTS: Overall, 699 (58.9%) experienced Crohn's disease and 488 (41.1%) had ulcerative colitis. Most important predictors for temporary work disability in patients with Crohn's disease included gender, disease duration, disease activity, C-reactive protein level, smoking, depressive symptoms, fistulas, extraintestinal manifestations, and the use of immunosuppressants/steroids. Temporary work disability in patients with ulcerative colitis was associated with age, disease duration, disease activity, and the use of steroids/antibiotics. In all patients, disease activity emerged as the only predictor of permanent work disability. Comparing data at enrollment versus follow-up yielded substantial differences regarding disability and predictors, with follow-up data showing greater predictor effects. CONCLUSIONS: We identified predictors of work disability in patients with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. Our findings can help in forecasting these disease courses and guide the choice of appropriate measures to prevent adverse outcomes. Comparing cross-sectional and longitudinal data showed that the conduction of cohort studies is inevitable for the examination of disability.

Transitory glutathione deficit during brain development induces cognitive impairment in juvenile and adult rats: relevance to schizophrenia.

Glutathione (GSH) metabolism dysfunction is one risk factor in schizophrenia. A transitory brain GSH deficit was induced in Wistar (WIS) and mutant (ODS; lacking ascorbic acid synthesis) rats using BSO (l-buthionine-(S,R)-sulfoximine) from post-natal days 5-16. When GSH was re-established to physiological levels, juvenile BSO-ODS rats were impaired in the water maze task. Long after treatment cessation, adult BSO-WIS/-ODS rats showed impaired place discrimination in the homing board with distributed visual or olfactory cues. Their accuracy was restored when a single cue marked the trained position. Similarly, more working memory errors were made by adult BSO-WIS in the radial maze when several olfactory cues were present. These results reveal that BSO rats did not suffer simple sensory impairment. They were selectively impaired in spatial memory when the task required the integration of multimodal or olfactory cues. These results, in part, resemble some of the reported olfactory discrimination and cognitive impairment in schizophrenia.

Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.

Three essays on the determinants of output, inflation and interest rates

Résumé: Output, inflation and interest rates are key macroeconomic variables, in particular for monetary policy. In modern macroeconomic models they are driven by random shocks which feed through the economy in various ways. Models differ in the nature of shocks and their transmission mechanisms. This is the common theme underlying the three essays of this thesis. Each essay takes a different perspective on the subject: First, the thesis shows empirically how different shocks lead to different behavior of interest rates over the business cycle. For commonly analyzed shocks (technology and monetary policy errors), the patterns square with standard models. The big unknown are sources of inflation persistence. Then the thesis presents a theory of monetary policy, when the central bank can better observe structural shocks than the public. The public will then seek to infer the bank's extra knowledge from its policy actions and expectation management becomes a key factor of optimal policy. In a simple New Keynesian model, monetary policy becomes more concerned with inflation persistence than otherwise. Finally, the thesis points to the huge uncertainties involved in estimating the responses to structural shocks with permanent effects.

Modern Gamma Knife radiosurgery of vestibular schwannomas: treatment concept, volumetric tumor response, and functional results.

The objective of the present study was longitudinal evaluation of the volumetric tumor response and functional results after Gamma Knife radiosurgery of vestibular schwannomas, performed according to the modern standards of treatment. From October 2003 to September 2007, 133 consecutive patients with vestibular schwannomas were treated according to the concept of robotic Gamma Knife microradiosurgery, which is based on precise irradiation of the lesion, sparing adjacent structures, and delivery of the high radiation energy to the target. Multiple small-sized isocenters located within the border of the neoplasm were applied. The mean marginal dose was 11.5 Gy (range, 11-12 Gy). In total, 126 cases with a minimum posttreatment follow-up of 2 years (range, 2-7 years; median, 4 years) were analyzed. Temporary enlargement was noted in 25 % of tumors at 6 months after radiosurgery. At 3 years of follow-up, tumor shrinkage, stabilization, and increase in volume were marked in 73 %, 23 %, and 4 % of cases, respectively. All progressing lesions spontaneously stabilized later on and did not require additional management. In 3 % of patients, transitory impairment of the facial nerve function was marked; however, neither its permanent dysfunction nor trigeminal neuropathy attributed to radiosurgery was noted. Impairment of hearing compared to its pretreatment level was revealed in 4 %, 12 %, 13 %, and 16 % of patients at 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years after radiosurgery, respectively, and this trend was statistically significant (P = 0.0042). Overall, 77 % of patients with serviceable hearing before treatment preserved it 3 years thereafter. In conclusion, modern Gamma Knife radiosurgery provides effective and safe management of vestibular schwannomas. Nevertheless, possible temporary tumor enlargement, delay of its growth arrest, transient dysfunction of the cranial nerves, and gradual deterioration of hearing after irradiation should be always taken into consideration.

Primary isolated aortic valve surgery in octogenarians.

We reviewed our surgery registry, to identify predictive risk factors for operative results, and to analyse the long-term survival outcome in octogenarians operated for primary isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). A total of 124 consecutive octogenarians underwent open AVR from January 1990 to December 2005. Combined procedures and redo surgery were excluded. Selected variables were studied as risk factors for hospital mortality and early neurological events. A follow-up (FU; mean FU time: 77 months) was obtained (90% complete), and Kaplan-Meier plots were used to determine survival rates. The mean age was 82+/-2.2 (range: 80-90 years; 63% females). Of the group, four patients (3%) required urgent procedures, 10 (8%) had a previous myocardial infarction, six (5%) had a previous coronary angioplasty and stenting, 13 patients (10%) suffered from angina and 59 (48%) were in the New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III-IV. We identified 114 (92%) degenerative stenosis, six (5%) post-rheumatic stenosis and four (3%) active endocarditis. The predicted mortality calculated by logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) was 12.6+/-5.7%, and the observed hospital mortality was 5.6%. Causes of death included severe cardiac failure (four patients), multi-organ failure (two) and sepsis (one). Complications were transitory neurological events in three patients (2%), short-term haemodialysis in three (2%), atrial fibrillation in 60 (48%) and six patients were re-operated for bleeding. Atrio-ventricular block, myocardial infarction or permanent stroke was not detected. The age at surgery and the postoperative renal failure were predictors for hospital mortality (p value <0.05), whereas we did not find predictors for neurological events. The mean FU time was 77 months (6.5 years) and the mean age of surviving patients was 87+/-4 years (81-95 years). The actuarial survival estimates at 5 and 10 years were 88% and 50%, respectively. Our experience shows good short-term results after primary isolated standard AVR in patients more than 80 years of age. The FU suggests that aortic valve surgery in octogenarians guarantees satisfactory long-term survival rates and a good quality of life, free from cardiac re-operations. In the era of catheter-based aortic valve implantation, open-heart surgery for AVR remains the standard of care for healthy octogenarians.