Scores to predict major bleeding risk during oral anticoagulation therapy: a prospective validation study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical scores may help physicians to better assess the individual risk/benefit of oral anticoagulant therapy. We aimed to externally validate and compare the prognostic performance of 7 clinical prediction scores for major bleeding events during oral anticoagulation therapy. METHODS: We followed 515 adult patients taking oral anticoagulants to measure the first major bleeding event over a 12-month follow-up period. The performance of each score to predict the risk of major bleeding and the physician's subjective assessment of bleeding risk were compared with the C statistic. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of a first major bleeding event during follow-up was 6.8% (35/515). According to the 7 scoring systems, the proportions of major bleeding ranged from 3.0% to 5.7% for low-risk, 6.7% to 9.9% for intermediate-risk, and 7.4% to 15.4% for high-risk patients. The overall predictive accuracy of the scores was poor, with the C statistic ranging from 0.54 to 0.61 and not significantly different from each other (P=.84). Only the Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation score performed slightly better than would be expected by chance (C statistic, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.70). The performance of the scores was not statistically better than physicians' subjective risk assessments (C statistic, 0.55; P=.94). CONCLUSION: The performance of 7 clinical scoring systems in predicting major bleeding events in patients receiving oral anticoagulation therapy was poor and not better than physicians' subjective assessments.

Use of DNA profiles for investigation using a simulated national DNA database: Part I. Partial SGM Plus profiles.

In traditional criminal investigation, uncertainties are often dealt with using a combination of common sense, practical considerations and experience, but rarely with tailored statistical models. For example, in some countries, in order to search for a given profile in the national DNA database, it must have allelic information for six or more of the ten SGM Plus loci for a simple trace. If the profile does not have this amount of information then it cannot be searched in the national DNA database (NDNAD). This requirement (of a result at six or more loci) is not based on a statistical approach, but rather on the feeling that six or more would be sufficient. A statistical approach, however, could be more rigorous and objective and would take into consideration factors such as the probability of adventitious matches relative to the actual database size and/or investigator's requirements in a sensible way. Therefore, this research was undertaken to establish scientific foundations pertaining to the use of partial SGM Plus loci profiles (or similar) for investigation.

Ex vivo ultrasound control of resection margins during partial nephrectomy.

Purpose: Surgery remains the treatment of choice for localized renal neoplasms. While radical nephrectomy was long considered the gold standard, partial nephrectomy has equivalent oncological results for small tumors. The role of negative surgical margins continues to be debated. Intraoperative frozen section analysis is expensive and time-consuming. We assessed the feasibility of intraoperative ex vivo ultrasound of resection margins in patients undergoing partial nephrectomy and its correlation with margin status on definitive pathological evaluation.Materials and Methods: A study was done at 2 institutions from February 2008 to March 2011. Patients undergoing partial nephrectomy for T1-T2 renal tumors were included in analysis. Partial nephrectomy was done by a standardized minimal healthy tissue margin technique. After resection the specimen was kept in saline and tumor margin status was immediately determined by ex vivo ultrasound. Sequential images were obtained to evaluate the whole tumor pseudocapsule. Results were compared with margin status on definitive pathological evaluation.Results: A total of 19 men and 14 women with a mean +/- SD age of 62 +/- 11 years were included in analysis. Intraoperative ex vivo ultrasound revealed negative surgical margins in 30 cases and positive margins in 2 while it could not be done in 1. Final pathological results revealed negative margins in all except 1 case. Ultrasound sensitivity and specificity were 100% and 97%, respectively. Median ultrasound duration was 1 minute. Mean tumor and margin size was 3.6 +/- 2.2 cm and 1.5 +/- 0.7 mm, respectively.Conclusions: Intraoperative ex vivo ultrasound of resection margins in patients undergoing partial nephrectomy is feasible and efficient. Large sample studies are needed to confirm its promising accuracy to determine margin status.

Estimating the risk of developing type 2 diabetes: a comparison of several risk scores: the Cohorte Lausannoise study.

To compare in the Swiss population the results of several scores estimating the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. This was a single-center, cross-sectional study conducted between 2003 and 2006 in Lausanne, Switzerland. Overall, 3,251 women and 2,937 men, aged 35-75 years, were assessed, of which 5,760 (93%) were free from diabetes and included in the current study. The risk of developing type 2 diabetes was assessed using seven different risk scores, including clinical data with or without biological data. Participants were considered to be eligible for primary prevention according to the thresholds provided for each score. The results were then extrapolated to the Swiss population of the same sex and age. The risk of developing type 2 diabetes increased with age in all scores. The prevalence of participants at high risk ranged between 1.6 and 24.9% in men and between 1.1 and 15.7% in women. Extrapolated to the Swiss population of similar age, the overall number of participants at risk, and thus susceptible to intervention, ranged between 46,708 and 636,841. In addition, scores that included the same clinical variables led to a significantly different prevalence of participants at risk (4.2% [95% CI 3.4-5.0] vs. 12.8% [11.5-14.1] in men and 2.9% [2.4-3.6] vs. 6.0% [5.2-6.9] in women). CONCLUSIONS; The prevalence of participants at risk for developing type 2 diabetes varies considerably according to the scoring system used. To adequately prevent type 2 diabetes, risk-scoring systems must be validated for each population considered.

Comparison of clinical and angiographic prognostic risk scores in elderly patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome and referred for percutaneous coronary intervention.

BACKGROUND: Multiple risk prediction models have been validated in all-age patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI); however, they have not been validated specifically in the elderly. METHODS: We calculated the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) score, the logistic EuroSCORE, the AMIS (Acute Myocardial Infarction Swiss registry) score, and the SYNTAX (Synergy between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with TAXUS and Cardiac Surgery) score in a consecutive series of 114 patients ≥75 years presenting with ACS and treated with PCI within 24 hours of hospital admission. Patients were stratified according to score tertiles and analysed retrospectively by comparing the lower/mid tertiles as an aggregate group with the higher tertile group. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality. Secondary endpoints were the composite of death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) at 30 days, and 1-year MACE-free survival. Model discrimination ability was assessed using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: Thirty-day mortality was higher in the upper tertile compared with the aggregate lower/mid tertiles according to the logistic EuroSCORE (42% vs 5%; odds ratio [OR] = 14, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 4-48; p <0.001; AUC = 0.79), the GRACE score (40% vs 4%; OR = 17, 95% CI = 4-64; p <0.001; AUC = 0.80), the AMIS score (40% vs 4%; OR = 16, 95% CI = 4-63; p <0.001; AUC = 0.80), and the SYNTAX score (37% vs 5%; OR = 11, 95% CI = 3-37; p <0.001; AUC = 0.77). CONCLUSIONS: In elderly patients presenting with ACS and referred to PCI within 24 hours of admission, the GRACE score, the EuroSCORE, the AMIS score, and the SYNTAX score predicted 30 day mortality. The predictive value of clinical scores was improved by using them in combination.

Prospective comparison of clinical prognostic scores in elderly patients with pulmonary embolism.

Background: The Geneva Prognostic Score (GPS), the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), and its simplified version (sPESI) are well known clinical prognostic scores for pulmonary embolism (PE).Objectives: To compare the prognostic performance of these scores in elderly patients with PE. Patients/Methods: In a multicenter Swiss cohort of elderly patients with venous thromboembolism, we prospectively studied 449 patients aged ≥65 years with symptomatic PE. The outcome was 30-day overall mortality. We dichotomized patients as low- vs. higher-risk in all three scores using the following thresholds: GPS scores ≤2 vs. >2, PESI risk classes I-II vs. III-V, and sPESI scores 0 vs. ≥1. We compared 30-day mortality in low- vs. higher-risk patients and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Results: Overall, 3.8% of patients (17/449) died within 30 days. The GPS classified a greater proportion of patients as low risk (92% [413/449]) than the PESI (36.3% [163/449]) and the sPESI (39.6% [178/449]) (P<0.001 for each comparison). Low-risk patients based on the sPESI had a mortality of 0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0-2.1%) compared to 0.6% (95% CI 0-3.4%) for low-risk patients based on the PESI and 3.4% (95% CI 1.9-5.6%) for low-risk patients based on the GPS. The areas under the ROC curves were 0.77 (95%CI 0.72-0.81), 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.80), and 0.71 (95% CI 0.66-0.75), respectively (P=0.47). Conclusions: In this cohort of elderly patients with PE, the GPS identified a higher proportion of patients as low-risk but the PESI and sPESI were more accurate in predicting mortality.

Creatine deficiency syndomes : a new model of partial GAMT deficiency affecting brain cell development

Les syndromes de déficiences cérébrales en créatine (CCDS) sont dus à des mutations dans les gènes GATM et G AMT (codant pour les enzymes AGAT et G AMT de la voie de synthèse de créatine) ainsi que SLC6A8 (transporteur de créatine), et génèrent une absence ou une très forte baisse de créatine (Cr) dans le cerveau, mesurée par spectroscopic de résonance magnétique. Les patients CCDS développent des handicaps neurologiques sévères. Les patients AGAT et GAMT peuvent être traités avec des doses importantes de Cr, mais gardent dans la plupart des cas des séquelles neurologiques irréversibles. Aucun traitement efficace n'existe à ce jour pour la déficience en SLC6A8. Bien que de nombreux modèles aient été développés pour comprendre la Cr cérébrale en conditions physiologiques, les pathomécanismes des CCDS ne sont pas encore compris. Des souris transgéniques pour les gènes Gatm, Gamt et Slc6a8 ont été générées, mais elles ne miment que partiellement la pathologie humaine. Parmi les CCDS, la déficience en GAMT est la plus sévère, en raison de l'accumulation cérébrale de l'intermédiaire guanidinoacétate (GAA). Alors que la toxicité cérébrale du GAA a été étudiée par exposition directe au GAA d'animaux adultes sains, les mécanismes de la toxicité du GAA en condition de déficience en GAMT dans le cerveau en développement sont encore inconnus. Le but de ce projet était donc de développer un modèle de déficience en GAMT dans des cultures 3D primaires de cellules nerveuses de rat en agrégats par knock-down du gène GAMT, en utilisant un virus adéno-associé (AAV) induisant le mécanisme d'interférence à l'ARN (RNAi). Le virus scAAV2, à la multiplicité d'infection de 1000, s'est révélé le plus efficace pour transduire tous les types de cellules nerveuses des cultures (neurones, astrocytes, oligodendrocytes), et générer un knock-down maximal de la protéine GAMT de 85% (jour in vitro 18). Cette déficience partielle en GAMT s'est révélée insuffisante pour générer une déficience en Cr, mais a causé l'accumulation attendue de GAA, à des doses comparables aux niveaux observés dans le LCR des patients GAMT. Le GAA a induit une croissance axonale anarchique accompagnée d'une baisse de l'apoptose naturelle, suivis par une induction tardive de mort cellulaire non-apoptotique. Le co-traitement par la Cr a prévenu tous les effets toxiques du GAA. Ce travail montre que l'accumulation de GAA en absence de déficience en Cr est suffisante pour affecter le développement du tissu nerveux, et suggère que des formes de déficiences en GAMT supplémentaires, ne présentant pas de déficiences en Cr, pourraient être découvertes par mesure du GAA, en particulier à travers les programmes récemment proposés de dépistage néonatal de la déficience en GAMT. -- Cerebral creatine deficiency syndromes (CCDS) are caused by mutations in the genes GATM and GAMT (respectively coding for the two enzymes of the creatine synthetic pathway, AGAT and GAMT) as well as SLC6A8 (creatine transporter), and lead to the absence or very strong decrease of creatine (Cr) in the brain when measured by magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Affected patients show severe neurological impairments. While AGAT and GAMT deficient patients can be treated with high dosages of Cr, most remain with irreversible brain sequelae. No treatment has been successful so far for SLC6A8 deficiency. While many models have helped understanding the cerebral Cr pathways in physiological conditions, the pathomechanisms underlying CCDS are yet to be elucidated. Transgenic mice carrying mutations in the Gatm, Gamt and Slc6a8 genes have been developed, but only partially mimic the human pathology. Among CCDS, GAMT deficiency is the most severe, due to the CNS accumulation of the guanidinoacetate (GAA) intermediate. While brain toxicity of GAA has been explored through direct GAA exposure of adult healthy animals, the mechanisms underlying GAA toxicity in GAMT deficiency conditions on the developing CNS are yet unknown. The aim of this project was thus to develop and characterize a GAMT deficiency model in developing brain cells by gene knockdown, by adeno-associated virus (AAV)-driven RNA interference (RNAi) in rat 3D organotypic primary brain cell cultures in aggregates. scAAV2 with a multiplicity of infection of 1000 was shown as the most efficient serotype, was able to transduce all brain cell types (neurons, astrocytes, oligodendrocytes) and to induce a maximal GAMT protein knockdown of 85% (day in vitro 18). Metabolite analysis showed that partial GAMT knockdown was insufficient to induce Cr deficiency but generated the awaited GAA accumulation at concentrations comparable to the levels observed in cerebrospinal fluid of GAMT-deficient patients. Accumulated GAA induced axonal hypersprouting paralleled with inhibition of natural apoptosis, followed by a later induction in non-apoptotic cell death. Cr supplementation led to the prevention of all GAA-induced toxic effects. This work shows that GAA accumulation without Cr deficiency is sufficient to affect CNS development, and suggests that additional partial GAMT deficiencies, which may not show the classical brain Cr deficiency, may be discovered through GAA measurement including by recently proposed neonatal screening programs for GAMT deficiency.

The fusion protein SS18-SSX1 employs core Wnt pathway transcription factors to induce a partial Wnt signature in synovial sarcoma.

Expression of the SS18/SYT-SSX fusion protein is believed to underlie the pathogenesis of synovial sarcoma (SS). Recent evidence suggests that deregulation of the Wnt pathway may play an important role in SS but the mechanisms whereby SS18-SSX might affect Wnt signaling remain to be elucidated. Here, we show that SS18/SSX tightly regulates the elevated expression of the key Wnt target AXIN2 in primary SS. SS18-SSX is shown to interact with TCF/LEF, TLE and HDAC but not β-catenin in vivo and to induce Wnt target gene expression by forming a complex containing promoter-bound TCF/LEF and HDAC but lacking β-catenin. Our observations provide a tumor-specific mechanistic basis for Wnt target gene induction in SS that can occur in the absence of Wnt ligand stimulation.