Nd and Sr isotope compositions in modern and fossil bones - Proxies for vertebrate provenance and taphonomy

Rare earth elements (REE), while not essential for the physiologic functions of animals, are ingested and incorporated in ppb concentrations in bones and teeth. Nd isotope compositions of modern bones of animals from isotopically distinct habitats demonstrate that the (143)Nd/(144)Nd of the apatite can be used as a fingerprint for bedrock geology or ambient water mass. This potentially allows the provenance and migration of extant vertebrates to be traced, similar to the use of Sr isotopes. Although REE may be enriched by up to 5 orders of magnitude during diagenesis and recrystallization of bone apatite, in vivo (143)Nd/(144)Nd may be preserved in the inner cortex of fossil bones or enamel. However, tracking the provenance of ancient or extinct vertebrates is possible only for well-preserved archeological and paleontological skeletal remains with in vivo-like Nd contents at the ppb-level. Intra-bone and -tooth REE analysis can be used to screen for appropriate areas. Large intra-bone Nd concentration gradients of 10(1)-10(3) are often measured. Nd concentrations in the inner bone cortex increase over timescales of millions of years, while bone rims may be enriched over millenial timescales. Nevertheless, epsilon(Nd) values are often similar within one epsilon(Nd) unit within a single bone. Larger intra-bone differences in specimens may either reflect a partial preservation of in vivo values or changing epsilon(Nd) values of the diagenetic fluid during fossilization. However, most fossil specimens and the outer rims of bones will record taphonomic (143)Nd/(144)Nd incorporated post mortem during diagenesis. Unlike REE patterns, (143)Nd/(144)Nd are not biased by fractionation processes during REE-uptake into the apatite crystal lattice, hence the epsilon(Nd) value is an important tracer for taphonomy and reworking. Bones and teeth from autochthonous fossil assemblages have small variations of +/- 1 epsilon(Nd) unit only. In contrast, fossil bones and teeth from over 20 different marine and terrestrial fossil sites have a total range of epsilon(Nd) values from -13.0 to 4.9 (n = 80), often matching the composition of the embedding sediment. This implies that the surrounding sediment is the source of Nd in the fossil bones and that the specimens of this study seem not to have been reworked. Differences in epsilon(Nd) values between skeletal remains and embedding sediment may either indicate reworking of fossils and/or a REE-uptake from a diagenetic fluid with non-sediment derived epsilon(Nd) values. The latter often applies to fossil shark teeth, which may preserve paleo-seawater values. Complementary to epsilon(Nd) values, (87)Sr/(86)Sr can help to further constrain the fossil provenance and reworking. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Binary classification of dyslipidemia from the waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index: a comparison of linear, logistic, and CART models.

BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.

Mass conservative three-dimensional water tracer distribution from Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of time-lapse ground-penetrating radar data

Time-lapse geophysical measurements are widely used to monitor the movement of water and solutes through the subsurface. Yet commonly used deterministic least squares inversions typically suffer from relatively poor mass recovery, spread overestimation, and limited ability to appropriately estimate nonlinear model uncertainty. We describe herein a novel inversion methodology designed to reconstruct the three-dimensional distribution of a tracer anomaly from geophysical data and provide consistent uncertainty estimates using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Posterior sampling is made tractable by using a lower-dimensional model space related both to the Legendre moments of the plume and to predefined morphological constraints. Benchmark results using cross-hole ground-penetrating radar travel times measurements during two synthetic water tracer application experiments involving increasingly complex plume geometries show that the proposed method not only conserves mass but also provides better estimates of plume morphology and posterior model uncertainty than deterministic inversion results.

First day of an oil spill on the open sea: early mass transfers of hydrocarbons to air and water.

During the first hours after release of petroleum at sea, crude oil hydrocarbons partition rapidly into air and water. However, limited information is available about very early evaporation and dissolution processes. We report on the composition of the oil slick during the first day after a permitted, unrestrained 4.3 m(3) oil release conducted on the North Sea. Rapid mass transfers of volatile and soluble hydrocarbons were observed, with >50% of ≤C17 hydrocarbons disappearing within 25 h from this oil slick of <10 km(2) area and <10 μm thickness. For oil sheen, >50% losses of ≤C16 hydrocarbons were observed after 1 h. We developed a mass transfer model to describe the evolution of oil slick chemical composition and water column hydrocarbon concentrations. The model was parametrized based on environmental conditions and hydrocarbon partitioning properties estimated from comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC×GC) retention data. The model correctly predicted the observed fractionation of petroleum hydrocarbons in the oil slick resulting from evaporation and dissolution. This is the first report on the broad-spectrum compositional changes in oil during the first day of a spill at the sea surface. Expected outcomes under other environmental conditions are discussed, as well as comparisons to other models.