Population specific and up to date cardiovascular risk charts can be efficiently obtained with record linkage of routine and observational data.

BACKGROUND: Only few countries have cohorts enabling specific and up-to-date cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. Individual risk assessment based on study samples that differ too much from the target population could jeopardize the benefit of risk charts in general practice. Our aim was to provide up-to-date and valid CVD risk estimation for a Swiss population using a novel record linkage approach. METHODS: Anonymous record linkage was used to follow-up (for mortality, until 2008) 9,853 men and women aged 25-74 years who participated in the Swiss MONICA (MONItoring of trends and determinants in CVD) study of 1983-92. The linkage success was 97.8%, loss to follow-up 1990-2000 was 4.7%. Based on the ESC SCORE methodology (Weibull regression), we used age, sex, blood pressure, smoking, and cholesterol to generate three models. We compared the 1) original SCORE model with a 2) recalibrated and a 3) new model using the Brier score (BS) and cross-validation. RESULTS: Based on the cross-validated BS, the new model (BS = 14107×10(-6)) was somewhat more appropriate for risk estimation than the original (BS = 14190×10(-6)) and the recalibrated (BS = 14172×10(-6)) model. Particularly at younger age, derived absolute risks were consistently lower than those from the original and the recalibrated model which was mainly due to a smaller impact of total cholesterol. CONCLUSION: Using record linkage of observational and routine data is an efficient procedure to obtain valid and up-to-date CVD risk estimates for a specific population.

The occurrence of intra-operative hypotension varies between hospitals: observational analysis of more than 147,000 anaesthesia.

BACKGROUND: Hypotension, a common intra-operative incident, bears an important potential for morbidity. It is most often manageable and sometimes preventable, which renders its study important. Therefore, we aimed at examining hospital variations in the occurrence of intra-operative hypotension and its predictors. As secondary endpoints, we determined to what extent hypotension relates to the risk of post-operative incidents and death. METHODS: We used the Anaesthesia Databank Switzerland, built on routinely and prospectively collected data on all anaesthesias in 21 hospitals. The three outcomes were assessed using multi-level logistic regression models. RESULTS: Among 147,573 anaesthesias, hypotension ranged from 0.6% to 5.2% in participating hospitals, and from 0.3% up to 12% in different surgical specialties. Most (73.4%) were minor single events. Age, ASA status, combined general and regional anaesthesia techniques, duration of surgery and hospitalization were significantly associated with hypotension. Although significantly associated, the emergency status of the surgery had a weaker effect. Hospitals' odds ratios for hypotension varied between 0.12 and 2.50 (P < or = 0.001), even after adjusting for patient and anaesthesia factors, and for type of surgery. At least one post-operative incident occurred in 9.7% of the procedures, including 0.03% deaths. Intra-operative hypotension was associated with a higher risk of post-operative incidents and death. CONCLUSION: Wide variations remain in the occurrence of hypotension among hospitals after adjustment for risk factors. Although differential reporting from hospitals may exist, variations in anaesthesia techniques and blood pressure maintenance may also have contributed. Intra-operative hypotension is associated with morbidities and sometimes death, and constant vigilance must thus be advocated.

Indicators for the total number of melanocytic naevi : an adjunct for screening campaigns. Observational study on 292 patients.

BACKGROUND: The presence of multiple melanocytic naevi is a strong risk factor for melanoma. Use of the whole body naevus count to identify at-risk patients is impractical. OBJECTIVES: To (i) identify a valid anatomical predictor of total naevus count; (ii) determine the number of naevi that most accurately predict total naevus count above 25, 50 and 100; and (iii) evaluate determinants of multiple melanocytic naevi and atypical naevi. METHODS: Clinical data from 292 consecutive Spanish patients consulting for skin lesions requiring debriding were collected throughout 2009 and 2010. Correlations between site-specific and whole body naevus counts were analysed. Cut-offs to predict total naevus counts were determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: The studied population was young (median age 31 years, interquartile range 28-43). The naevus count on the right arm correlated best with the total nevus count (R(2) 0·80 for men, 0·86 for women). Presence of at least five naevi on the right arm was the strongest determinant of a total naevus count above 50 [odds ratio (OR) 34·4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 13·9-85·0] and of having at least one atypical naevus (OR 5·7, 95% CI 2·4-13·5). Cut-off values of 6, 8 and 11 naevi on the right arm best predicted total naevus count above 25, 50 and 100, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the arm as a practical and reliable site to estimate the total naevus count when screening or phenotyping large populations. Threshold values for the number of naevi on the arm are proposed to help identify patients for melanoma screening.

Chemical profiling of different hashish seizures by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and statistical methodology: a case report

Limited information is available regarding the methodology required to characterize hashish seizures for assessing the presence or the absence of a chemical link between two seizures. This casework report presents the methodology applied for assessing that two different police seizures were coming from the same block before this latter one was split. The chemical signature was extracted using GC-MS analysis and the implemented methodology consists in a study of intra- and inter-variability distributions based on the measurement of the chemical profiles similarity using a number of hashish seizures and the calculation of the Pearson correlation coefficient. Different statistical scenarios (i.e., a combination of data pretreatment techniques and selection of target compounds) were tested to find the most discriminating one. Seven compounds showing high discrimination capabilities were selected on which a specific statistical data pretreatment was applied. Based on the results, the statistical model built for comparing the hashish seizures leads to low error rates. Therefore, the implemented methodology is suitable for the chemical profiling of hashish seizures.

Appropriate treatment for Crohn's disease: methodology and summary results of a multidisciplinary international expert panel approach--EPACT.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: For many therapeutic decisions in Crohn's disease (CD), high-grade evidence is lacking. To assist clinical decision-making, explicit panel-based appropriateness criteria were developed by an international, multidisciplinary expert panel. METHODS: 10 gastroenterologists, 3 surgeons and 2 general practitioners from 12 European countries assessed the appropriateness of therapy for CD using the RAND Appropriateness Method. Their assessment was based on the study of a recent literature review of the subject, combined with their own expert clinical judgment. Panelists rated clinical indications and treatment options using a 9-point scale (1 = extremely inappropriate; 9 = extremely appropriate). These scenarios were then discussed in detail at the panel meeting and re-rated. Median ratings and disagreement were used to aggregate ratings into three assessment categories: appropriate (A), uncertain (U) and inappropriate (I). RESULTS: 569 specific indications were rated, dealing with 9 clinical presentations: mild/moderate luminal CD (n = 104), severe CD (n = 126), steroid-dependent CD (n = 25), steroid-refractory CD (n = 37), fistulizing CD (n = 49), fibrostenotic CD (n = 35), maintenance of medical remission of CD (n = 84), maintenance of surgical remission (n = 78), drug safety in pregnancy (n = 24) and use of infliximab (n = 7). Overall, 146 indications (26%) were judged appropriate, 129 (23%) uncertain and 294 (52%) inappropriate. Frank disagreement was low (14% overall) with the greatest disagreement (54% of scenarios) being observed for treatment of steroid-refractory disease. CONCLUSIONS: Detailed explicit appropriateness criteria for the appropriate use of therapy for CD were developed for the first time by a European expert panel. Disease location, severity and previous treatments were the main factors taken into account. User-friendly access to EPACT criteria is available via an Internet site, www.epact.ch, allowing prospective evaluation and improvement of appropriateness of current CD therapy.

Turnaround across diverse global supply chains using shared metrics and change methodology: The Case of Amer Sports Corporation

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to document the outcome of a global three-year long supply chain improvement initiative at a multi-national producer of branded sporting goods that is transforming from a holding structure to an integrated company. The case company is comprised of seven internationally well-known sport brands, which form a diverse set of independent sub-cases, on which the same supply chain metrics and change project approach was applied to improve supply chain performance. Design/methodology/approach - By using in-depth case study and statistical analysis the paper analyzes across the brands how supply chain complexity (SKU count), supply chain type (make or buy) and seasonality affect completeness and punctuality of deliveries, and inventory as the change project progresses. Findings - Results show that reduction in supply chain complexity improves delivery performance, but has no impact on inventory. Supply chain type has no impact on service level, but brands with in-house production are better in improving inventory than those with outsourced production. Non-seasonal business units improve service faster than seasonal ones, yet there is no impact on inventory. Research limitations/implications - The longitudinal data used for the analysis is biased with the general business trend, yet the rich data from different cases and three-years of data collection enables generalizations to a certain level. Practical implications - The in-depth case study serves as an example for other companies on how to initiate a supply chain improvement project across business units with tangible results. Originality/value - The seven sub-cases with their different characteristics on which the same improvement initiative was applied sets a unique ground for longitudinal analysis to study supply chain complexity, type and seasonality.

Risk factors for repetitive ileocolic resection in patients with Crohn's disease: results of an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Surgical recurrence rates among patients with Crohn's disease with ileocolic resection (ICR) remain high, and factors predicting surgical recurrence remain controversial. We aimed to identify risk and protective factors for repetitive ICRs among patients with Crohn's disease in a large cohort of patients. METHODS: Data on 305 patients after first ICR were retrieved from our cross-sectional and prospective database (median follow-up: 15 yr [0-52 yr]). Data were compared between patients with 1 (ICR = 1, n = 225) or more than 1 (ICR >1, n = 80) resection. Clinical phenotypes were classified according to the Montreal Classification. Gender, family history of inflammatory bowel disease, smoking status, type of surgery, immunomodulator, and biological therapy before, parallel to and after first ICR were analyzed. RESULTS: The mean duration from diagnosis until first ICR did not differ significantly between the groups, being 5.93 ± 7.65 years in the ICR = 1 group and 5.36 ± 6.35 years in the ICR >1 group (P = 0.05). Mean time to second ICR was 6.7 ± 5.74 years. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, ileal disease location (odds ratio [OR], 2.42; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-5.78; P = 0.05) was a significant risk factor. A therapy with immunomodulators at time of or within 1 year after first ICR (OR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.09-0.63; P < 0.01) was a protective factor. Neither smoking (OR, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.66-2.06) nor gender (male OR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.51-1.42) or family history (OR, 1.68; 95% CI, 0.84-3.36) had a significant impact on surgical recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: Immunomodulators have a protective impact regarding surgical recurrence after ICR. In contrast, ileal disease location constitutes a significant risk factor for a second ICR.

A methodology to event reconstruction from trace images

The widespread use of digital imaging devices for surveillance (CCTV) and entertainment (e.g., mobile phones, compact cameras) has increased the number of images recorded and opportunities to consider the images as traces or documentation of criminal activity. The forensic science literature focuses almost exclusively on technical issues and evidence assessment [1]. Earlier steps in the investigation phase have been neglected and must be considered. This article is the first comprehensive description of a methodology to event reconstruction using images. This formal methodology was conceptualised from practical experiences and applied to different contexts and case studies to test and refine it. Based on this practical analysis, we propose a systematic approach that includes a preliminary analysis followed by four main steps. These steps form a sequence for which the results from each step rely on the previous step. However, the methodology is not linear, but it is a cyclic, iterative progression for obtaining knowledge about an event. The preliminary analysis is a pre-evaluation phase, wherein potential relevance of images is assessed. In the first step, images are detected and collected as pertinent trace material; the second step involves organising and assessing their quality and informative potential. The third step includes reconstruction using clues about space, time and actions. Finally, in the fourth step, the images are evaluated and selected as evidence. These steps are described and illustrated using practical examples. The paper outlines how images elicit information about persons, objects, space, time and actions throughout the investigation process to reconstruct an event step by step. We emphasise the hypothetico-deductive reasoning framework, which demonstrates the contribution of images to generating, refining or eliminating propositions or hypotheses. This methodology provides a sound basis for extending image use as evidence and, more generally, as clues in investigation and crime reconstruction processes.

Maps as risk mitigation tools. Adaptation of the Swiss hazard assessment and mapping methodology to a Moroccan site: Beni Mellal

Dans le contexte climatique actuel, les régions méditerranéennes connaissent une intensification des phénomènes hydrométéorologiques extrêmes. Au Maroc, le risque lié aux inondations est devenu problématique, les communautés étant vulnérables aux événements extrêmes. En effet, le développement économique et urbain rapide et mal maîtrisé augmente l'exposition aux phénomènes extrêmes. La Direction du Développement et de la Coopération suisse (DDC) s'implique activement dans la réduction des risques naturels au Maroc. La cartographie des dangers et son intégration dans l'aménagement du territoire représentent une méthode efficace afin de réduire la vulnérabilité spatiale. Ainsi, la DDC a mandaté ce projet d'adaptation de la méthode suisse de cartographie des dangers à un cas d'étude marocain (la ville de Beni Mellal, région de Tadla-Azilal, Maroc). La méthode suisse a été adaptée aux contraintes spécifiques du terrain (environnement semi-aride, morphologie de piémont) et au contexte de transfert de connaissances (caractéristiques socio-économiques et pratiques). Une carte des phénomènes d'inondations a été produite. Elle contient les témoins morphologiques et les éléments anthropiques pertinents pour le développement et l'aggravation des inondations. La modélisation de la relation pluie-débit pour des événements de référence, et le routage des hydrogrammes de crue ainsi obtenus ont permis d'estimer quantitativement l'aléa inondation. Des données obtenues sur le terrain (estimations de débit, extension de crues connues) ont permis de vérifier les résultats des modèles. Des cartes d'intensité et de probabilité ont été obtenues. Enfin, une carte indicative du danger d'inondation a été produite sur la base de la matrice suisse du danger qui croise l'intensité et la probabilité d'occurrence d'un événement pour obtenir des degrés de danger assignables au territoire étudié. En vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger dans les documents de l'aménagement du territoire, nous nous intéressons au fonctionnement actuel de la gestion institutionnelle du risque à Beni Mellal, en étudiant le degré d'intégration de la gestion et la manière dont les connaissances sur les risques influencent le processus de gestion. L'analyse montre que la gestion est marquée par une logique de gestion hiérarchique et la priorité des mesures de protection par rapport aux mesures passives d'aménagement du territoire. Les connaissances sur le risque restent sectorielles, souvent déconnectées. L'innovation dans le domaine de la gestion du risque résulte de collaborations horizontales entre les acteurs ou avec des sources de connaissances externes (par exemple les universités). Des recommandations méthodologiques et institutionnelles issues de cette étude ont été adressées aux gestionnaires en vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger. Plus que des outils de réduction du risque, les cartes de danger aident à transmettre des connaissances vers le public et contribuent ainsi à établir une culture du risque. - Severe rainfall events are thought to be occurring more frequently in semi-arid areas. In Morocco, flood hazard has become an important topic, notably as rapid economic development and high urbanization rates have increased the exposure of people and assets in hazard-prone areas. The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SADC) is active in natural hazard mitigation in Morocco. As hazard mapping for urban planning is thought to be a sound tool for vulnerability reduction, the SADC has financed a project aimed at adapting the Swiss approach for hazard assessment and mapping to the case of Morocco. In a knowledge transfer context, the Swiss method was adapted to the semi-arid environment, the specific piedmont morphology and to socio-economic constraints particular to the study site. Following the Swiss guidelines, a hydro-geomorphological map was established, containing all geomorphic elements related to known past floods. Next, rainfall / runoff modeling for reference events and hydraulic routing of the obtained hydrographs were carried out in order to assess hazard quantitatively. Field-collected discharge estimations and flood extent for known floods were used to verify the model results. Flood hazard intensity and probability maps were obtained. Finally, an indicative danger map as defined within the Swiss hazard assessment terminology was calculated using the Swiss hazard matrix that convolves flood intensity with its recurrence probability in order to assign flood danger degrees to the concerned territory. Danger maps become effective, as risk mitigation tools, when implemented in urban planning. We focus on how local authorities are involved in the risk management process and how knowledge about risk impacts the management. An institutional vulnerability "map" was established based on individual interviews held with the main institutional actors in flood management. Results show that flood hazard management is defined by uneven actions and relationships, it is based on top-down decision-making patterns, and focus is maintained on active mitigation measures. The institutional actors embody sectorial, often disconnected risk knowledge pools, whose relationships are dictated by the institutional hierarchy. Results show that innovation in the risk management process emerges when actors collaborate despite the established hierarchy or when they open to outer knowledge pools (e.g. the academia). Several methodological and institutional recommendations were addressed to risk management stakeholders in view of potential map implementation to planning. Hazard assessment and mapping is essential to an integrated risk management approach: more than a mitigation tool, danger maps represent tools that allow communicating on hazards and establishing a risk culture.

The Swiss cohort of elderly patients with venous thromboembolism (SWITCO65+): rationale and methodology.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is common and has a high impact on morbidity, mortality, and costs of care. Although most of the patients with VTE are aged ≥65 years, there is little data about the medical outcomes in the elderly with VTE. The Swiss Cohort of Elderly Patients with VTE (SWITCO65+) is a prospective multicenter cohort study of in- and outpatients aged ≥65 years with acute VTE from all five Swiss university and four high-volume non-university hospitals. The goal is to examine which clinical and biological factors and processes of care drive short- and long-term medical outcomes, health-related quality of life, and medical resource utilization in elderly patients with acute VTE. The cohort also includes a large biobank with biological material from each participant. From September 2009 to March 2012, 1,863 elderly patients with VTE were screened and 1003 (53.8 %) were enrolled in the cohort. Overall, 51.7 % of patients were aged ≥75 years and 52.7 % were men. By October 16, 2012, after an average follow-up time of 512 days, 799 (79.7 %) patients were still actively participating. SWITCO65+ is a unique opportunity to study short- and long-term outcomes in elderly patients with VTE. The Steering Committee encourages national and international collaborative research projects related to SWITCO65+, including sharing anonymized data and biological samples.

Usefulness of Mendelian randomization in observational epidemiology.

Mendelian randomization refers to the random allocation of alleles at the time of gamete formation. In observational epidemiology, this refers to the use of genetic variants to estimate a causal effect between a modifiable risk factor and an outcome of interest. In this review, we recall the principles of a "Mendelian randomization" approach in observational epidemiology, which is based on the technique of instrumental variables; we provide simulations and an example based on real data to demonstrate its implications; we present the results of a systematic search on original articles having used this approach; and we discuss some limitations of this approach in view of what has been found so far.

The occurrence of intra-operative hypotension varies between hospitals: observational analysis of over 147000 anaesthesia

Background: Hypotension, a common intra-operative incident, bears an important potential for morbidity. It is most often manageable and sometimes preventable, which renders its study important. Therefore, we aimed at examining hospital variations in the occurrence of intraoperative hypotension and its predictors. As secondary endpoints, we determined to what extent hypotension relates to the risk of postoperative incidents and death. Methods: We used the Anaesthesia Databank Switzerland, built on routinely and prospectively collected data on all anaesthesias in 21 hospitals. The three outcomes were assessed using multi-level logistic regression models. Results: Among 147573 anaesthesia, hypotension ranged from 0.6 to 5.2% in participating hospitals, and from 0.3 up to 12% in different surgical specialties. Most (73.4%) were minor single events. Age, ASA status, combined general and regional anaesthesia techniques, duration of surgery, and hospitalization were significantly associated to hypotension. Although significantly associated, the emergency status of the surgery had a weaker effect. Hospitals' Odds Ratios for hypotension varied between 0.12 to 2.50 (p ≤0.001) with respect to the mean prevalence of 3.1%, even after adjusting for patient and anaesthesia factors, and for type of surgery. At least one postoperative incident occurred in 9.7% of the interventions, including 0.03% deaths. Intra-operative hypotension was associated with higher risk of post-operative incidents and death. Conclusions: Wide variations in the occurrence of hypotension amongst hospitals remain after adjustment for risk factors. Although differential reporting from hospitals may exist, variations in anesthesia techniques and blood pressure maintenance could have also contributed. Intra-operative hypotension is associated with morbidities and sometimes death, and constant vigilance must thus be advocated.

Treatment with tumor necrosis factor inhibitors in axial spondyloarthritis: comparison between private rheumatology practices and academic centers in a large observational cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the initiation of and response to tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors for axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) in private rheumatology practices versus academic centers. METHODS: We compared newly initiated TNF inhibition for axSpA in 363 patients enrolled in private practices with 100 patients recruited in 6 university hospitals within the Swiss Clinical Quality Management (SCQM) cohort. RESULTS: All patients had been treated with ≥ 1 nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug and > 70% of patients had a baseline Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) ≥ 4 before anti-TNF agent initiation. The proportion of patients with nonradiographic axSpA (nr-axSpA) treated with TNF inhibitors was higher in hospitals versus private practices (30.4% vs 18.7%, p = 0.02). The burden of disease as assessed by patient-reported outcomes at baseline was slightly higher in the hospital setting. Mean levels (± SD) of the Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score were, however, virtually identical in private practices and academic centers (3.4 ± 1.0 vs 3.4 ± 0.9, p = 0.68). An Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS40) response at 1 year was reached for ankylosing spondylitis in 51.7% in private practices and 52.9% in university hospitals (p = 1.0) and for nr-axSpA in 27.5% versus 25.0%, respectively (p = 1.0). CONCLUSION: With the exception of a lower proportion of patients with nr-axSpA newly treated with anti-TNF agents in private practices in comparison to academic centers, adherence to ASAS treatment recommendations for TNF inhibition was equally high, and similar response rates to TNF blockers were achieved in both clinical settings.