Financial Markets and Real Ecinomy: Four Essays in International Trade

Financial markets play an important role in an economy performing various functions like mobilizing and pooling savings, producing information about investment opportunities, screening and monitoring investments, implementation of corporate governance, diversification and management of risk. These functions influence saving rates, investment decisions, technological innovation and, therefore, have important implications for welfare. In my PhD dissertation I examine the interplay of financial and product markets by looking at different channels through which financial markets may influence an economy.My dissertation consists of four chapters. The first chapter is a co-authored work with Martin Strieborny, a PhD student from the University of Lausanne. The second chapter is a co-authored work with Melise Jaud, a PhD student from the Paris School of Economics. The third chapter is co-authored with both Melise Jaud and Martin Strieborny. The last chapter of my PhD dissertation is a single author paper.Chapter 1 of my PhD thesis analyzes the effect of financial development on growth of contract intensive industries. These industries intensively use intermediate inputs that neither can be sold on organized exchange, nor are reference-priced (Levchenko, 2007; Nunn, 2007). A typical example of a contract intensive industry would be an industry where an upstream supplier has to make investments in order to customize a product for needs of a downstream buyer. After the investment is made and the product is adjusted, the buyer may refuse to meet a commitment and trigger ex post renegotiation. Since the product is customized to the buyer's needs, the supplier cannot sell the product to a different buyer at the original price. This is referred in the literature as the holdup problem. As a consequence, the individually rational suppliers will underinvest into relationship-specific assets, hurting the downstream firms with negative consequences for aggregate growth. The standard way to mitigate the hold up problem is to write a binding contract and to rely on the legal enforcement by the state. However, even the most effective contract enforcement might fail to protect the supplier in tough times when the buyer lacks a reliable source of external financing. This suggests the potential role of financial intermediaries, banks in particular, in mitigating the incomplete contract problem. First, financial products like letters of credit and letters of guarantee can substantially decrease a risk and transaction costs of parties. Second, a bank loan can serve as a signal about a buyer's true financial situation, an upstream firm will be more willing undertake relationship-specific investment knowing that the business partner is creditworthy and will abstain from myopic behavior (Fama, 1985; von Thadden, 1995). Therefore, a well-developed financial (especially banking) system should disproportionately benefit contract intensive industries.The empirical test confirms this hypothesis. Indeed, contract intensive industries seem to grow faster in countries with a well developed financial system. Furthermore, this effect comes from a more developed banking sector rather than from a deeper stock market. These results are reaffirmed examining the effect of US bank deregulation on the growth of contract intensive industries in different states. Beyond an overall pro-growth effect, the bank deregulation seems to disproportionately benefit the industries requiring relationship-specific investments from their suppliers.Chapter 2 of my PhD focuses on the role of the financial sector in promoting exports of developing countries. In particular, it investigates how credit constraints affect the ability of firms operating in agri-food sectors of developing countries to keep exporting to foreign markets.Trade in high-value agri-food products from developing countries has expanded enormously over the last two decades offering opportunities for development. However, trade in agri-food is governed by a growing array of standards. Sanitary and Phytosanitary standards (SPS) and technical regulations impose additional sunk, fixed and operating costs along the firms' export life. Such costs may be detrimental to firms' survival, "pricing out" producers that cannot comply. The existence of these costs suggests a potential role of credit constraints in shaping the duration of trade relationships on foreign markets. A well-developed financial system provides the funds to exporters necessary to adjust production processes in order to meet quality and quantity requirements in foreign markets and to maintain long-standing trade relationships. The products with higher needs for financing should benefit the most from a well functioning financial system. This differential effect calls for a difference-in-difference approach initially proposed by Rajan and Zingales (1998). As a proxy for demand for financing of agri-food products, the sanitary risk index developed by Jaud et al. (2009) is used. The empirical literature on standards and norms show high costs of compliance, both variable and fixed, for high-value food products (Garcia-Martinez and Poole, 2004; Maskus et al., 2005). The sanitary risk index reflects the propensity of products to fail health and safety controls on the European Union (EU) market. Given the high costs of compliance, the sanitary risk index captures the demand for external financing to comply with such regulations.The prediction is empirically tested examining the export survival of different agri-food products from firms operating in Ghana, Mali, Malawi, Senegal and Tanzania. The results suggest that agri-food products that require more financing to keep up with food safety regulation of the destination market, indeed sustain longer in foreign market, when they are exported from countries with better developed financial markets.Chapter 3 analyzes the link between financial markets and efficiency of resource allocation in an economy. Producing and exporting products inconsistent with a country's factor endowments constitutes a serious misallocation of funds, which undermines competitiveness of the economy and inhibits its long term growth. In this chapter, inefficient exporting patterns are analyzed through the lens of the agency theories from the corporate finance literature. Managers may pursue projects with negative net present values because their perquisites or even their job might depend on them. Exporting activities are particularly prone to this problem. Business related to foreign markets involves both high levels of additional spending and strong incentives for managers to overinvest. Rational managers might have incentives to push for exports that use country's scarce factors which is suboptimal from a social point of view. Export subsidies might further skew the incentives towards inefficient exporting. Management can divert the export subsidies into investments promoting inefficient exporting.Corporate finance literature stresses the disciplining role of outside debt in counteracting the internal pressures to divert such "free cash flow" into unprofitable investments. Managers can lose both their reputation and the control of "their" firm if the unpaid external debt triggers a bankruptcy procedure. The threat of possible failure to satisfy debt service payments pushes the managers toward an efficient use of available resources (Jensen, 1986; Stulz, 1990; Hart and Moore, 1995). The main sources of debt financing in the most countries are banks. The disciplining role of banks might be especially important in the countries suffering from insufficient judicial quality. Banks, in pursuing their rights, rely on comparatively simple legal interventions that can be implemented even by mediocre courts. In addition to their disciplining role, banks can promote efficient exporting patterns in a more direct way by relaxing credit constraints of producers, through screening, identifying and investing in the most profitable investment projects. Therefore, a well-developed domestic financial system, and particular banking system, would help to push a country's exports towards products congruent with its comparative advantage.This prediction is tested looking at the survival of different product categories exported to US market. Products are identified according to the Euclidian distance between their revealed factor intensity and the country's factor endowments. The results suggest that products suffering from a comparative disadvantage (labour-intensive products from capital-abundant countries) survive less on the competitive US market. This pattern is stronger if the exporting country has a well-developed banking system. Thus, a strong banking sector promotes exports consistent with a country comparative advantage.Chapter 4 of my PhD thesis further examines the role of financial markets in fostering efficient resource allocation in an economy. In particular, the allocative efficiency hypothesis is investigated in the context of equity market liberalization.Many empirical studies document a positive and significant effect of financial liberalization on growth (Levchenko et al. 2009; Quinn and Toyoda 2009; Bekaert et al., 2005). However, the decrease in the cost of capital and the associated growth in investment appears rather modest in comparison to the large GDP growth effect (Bekaert and Harvey, 2005; Henry, 2000, 2003). Therefore, financial liberalization may have a positive impact on growth through its effect on the allocation of funds across firms and sectors.Free access to international capital markets allows the largest and most profitable domestic firms to borrow funds in foreign markets (Rajan and Zingales, 2003). As domestic banks loose some of their best clients, they reoptimize their lending practices seeking new clients among small and younger industrial firms. These firms are likely to be more risky than large and established companies. Screening of customers becomes prevalent as the return to screening rises. Banks, ceteris paribus, tend to focus on firms operating in comparative-advantage sectors because they are better risks. Firms in comparative-disadvantage sectors finding it harder to finance their entry into or survival in export markets either exit or refrain from entering export markets. On aggregate, one should therefore expect to see less entry, more exit, and shorter survival on export markets in those sectors after financial liberalization.The paper investigates the effect of financial liberalization on a country's export pattern by comparing the dynamics of entry and exit of different products in a country export portfolio before and after financial liberalization.The results suggest that products that lie far from the country's comparative advantage set tend to disappear relatively faster from the country's export portfolio following the liberalization of financial markets. In other words, financial liberalization tends to rebalance the composition of a country's export portfolio towards the products that intensively use the economy's abundant factors.

The brain tracks the energetic value in food images.

Do our brains implicitly track the energetic content of the foods we see? Using electrical neuroimaging of visual evoked potentials (VEPs) we show that the human brain can rapidly discern food's energetic value, vis à vis its fat content, solely from its visual presentation. Responses to images of high-energy and low-energy food differed over two distinct time periods. The first period, starting at approximately 165 ms post-stimulus onset, followed from modulations in VEP topography and by extension in the configuration of the underlying brain network. Statistical comparison of source estimations identified differences distributed across a wide network including both posterior occipital regions and temporo-parietal cortices typically associated with object processing, and also inferior frontal cortices typically associated with decision-making. During a successive processing stage (starting at approximately 300 ms), responses differed both topographically and in terms of strength, with source estimations differing predominantly within prefrontal cortical regions implicated in reward assessment and decision-making. These effects occur orthogonally to the task that is actually being performed and suggest that reward properties such as a food's energetic content are treated rapidly and in parallel by a distributed network of brain regions involved in object categorization, reward assessment, and decision-making.

Comparison of the prognostic value of pretreatment measurements of systemic inflammatory response in patients undergoing curative resection of clear cell renal cell carcinoma.

PURPOSE: Pretreatment measurements of systemic inflammatory response, including the Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), the monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) have been recognized as prognostic factors in clear cell renal cell carcinoma (CCRCC), but there is at present no study that compared these markers. METHODS: We evaluated the pretreatment GPS, NLR, MLR, PLR and PNI in 430 patients, who underwent surgery for clinically localized CCRCC (pT1-3N0M0). Associations with disease-free survival were assessed with Cox models. Discrimination was measured with the C-index, and a decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical net benefit. RESULTS: On multivariable analyses, all measures of systemic inflammatory response were significant prognostic factors. The increase in discrimination compared with the stage, size, grade and necrosis (SSIGN) score alone was 5.8 % for the GPS, 1.1-1.4 % for the NLR, 2.9-3.4 % for the MLR, 2.0-3.3 % for the PLR and 1.4-3.0 % for the PNI. On the simultaneous multivariable analysis of all candidate measures, the final multivariable model contained the SSIGN score (HR 1.40, P < 0.001), the GPS (HR 2.32, P < 0.001) and the MLR (HR 5.78, P = 0.003) as significant variables. Adding both the GPS and the MLR increased the discrimination of the SSIGN score by 6.2 % and improved the clinical net benefit. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with clinically localized CCRCC, the GPS and the MLR appear to be the most relevant prognostic measures of systemic inflammatory response. They may be used as an adjunct for patient counseling, tailoring management and clinical trial design.

Areas of high conservation value in Georgia: present and future threats by invasive alien plants

Georgia is known for its extraordinary rich biodiversity of plants, which may now be threatened due to the spread of invasive alien plants (IAP). We aimed to identify (i) the most prominent IAP out of 9 selected potentially invasive and harmful IAP IAP by predicting thetheir distribution of 9 selected IAP under current and future climate conditions in Georgia as well as in its 43 Protected Areas, as a proxy for areas of high conservation value and (ii) the Protected Areas most at risk due to these IAP. We used species distribution models based on 6 climate variables and then filtered the obtained distributions based on maps of soil and vegetation types, and on recorded occurrences, resulting into the predicted ecological distribution of the 9 IAP's at a resolution of 1km2. We foundOur habitat suitability analysis showed that Ambrosia artemisiifolia, (24% and 40%) Robinia pseudoacaia (14% and 19%) and Ailanthus altissima (9% and 11%) have the largest potential distribution are the most abundant (predicted % area covered)d) IAP, with Ailanthus altissima the potentially most increasing one over the next fifty years (from 9% to 13% and from 11% to 25%), for Georgia and the Protected Areas, respectively. Furthermore, our results show indicate two areas in Georgia that are under specifically high threat, i.e. the area around Tbilisi and an area in the western part of Georgia (Adjara), both at lower altitudes. Our procedure to identify areas of high conservation value most at risk by IAP has been applied for the first time. It will help national authorities in prioritizing their measures to protect Georgia's outstanding biodiversity from the negative impact of IAP.

Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using Bayesian decision networks

Sampling issues represent a topic of ongoing interest to the forensic science community essentially because of their crucial role in laboratory planning and working protocols. For this purpose, forensic literature described thorough (Bayesian) probabilistic sampling approaches. These are now widely implemented in practice. They allow, for instance, to obtain probability statements that parameters of interest (e.g., the proportion of a seizure of items that present particular features, such as an illegal substance) satisfy particular criteria (e.g., a threshold or an otherwise limiting value). Currently, there are many approaches that allow one to derive probability statements relating to a population proportion, but questions on how a forensic decision maker - typically a client of a forensic examination or a scientist acting on behalf of a client - ought actually to decide about a proportion or a sample size, remained largely unexplored to date. The research presented here intends to address methodology from decision theory that may help to cope usefully with the wide range of sampling issues typically encountered in forensic science applications. The procedures explored in this paper enable scientists to address a variety of concepts such as the (net) value of sample information, the (expected) value of sample information or the (expected) decision loss. All of these aspects directly relate to questions that are regularly encountered in casework. Besides probability theory and Bayesian inference, the proposed approach requires some additional elements from decision theory that may increase the efforts needed for practical implementation. In view of this challenge, the present paper will emphasise the merits of graphical modelling concepts, such as decision trees and Bayesian decision networks. These can support forensic scientists in applying the methodology in practice. How this may be achieved is illustrated with several examples. The graphical devices invoked here also serve the purpose of supporting the discussion of the similarities, differences and complementary aspects of existing Bayesian probabilistic sampling criteria and the decision-theoretic approach proposed throughout this paper.

Poor value of pulsed-field gel electrophoresis to investigate long-term scale epidemiology of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus.

Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) is widely used for epidemic investigations of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). In the present study, we evaluated its use in a long-term epidemiological setting (years to few decades, country to continent level). The clustering obtained from PFGE patterns after SmaI digestion of the DNA of 20 strains was compared to that obtained using a phylogenetic typing method (multiprimer RAPD). The results showed that the analysis of small PFGE bands (10-85kb) correlates better with multiprimer RAPD than the analysis of large PFGE bands (>85-700kb), suggesting that the analysis of small bands would be more suitable for the investigation of long-term epidemiological setting. However, given the technical difficulties to obtain a good resolution of these bands and the putative presence of plasmids among them, PFGE does not appear to be a method of choice for the long-term epidemiology analysis of MRSA.

Fracture vertébrate évaluée par ostéodensitométrie. Un nouveau facteur de risque pour la fracture [Vertebral fracture assessed by DXA: a new risk factor for fracture]

At the age of 50, a woman has a lifetime risk of more than 40% to present a vertebral fracture. More than 60% of vertebral fractures remain undiagnosed. As a consequence it is of major importance to develop screening strategies to detect these fractures. Vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) by DXA allows one to detect vertebral fracture from T4 to L4 using DXA devices, while performing also during the same visit the bone mineral density measurement. Such an approach should improve the evaluation of fracture risk and therapeutic indication. Compared to the standard X-ray assessment, VFA highly enables to detect moderate or severe vertebral fractures below T6.

Integrating postoperative value of cardiac Troponin I for a better correlation with in-hospital outcomes after congenital heart surgery.

Objective: Cardiac Troponin-I (cTnI) is a well-recognized early postoperative marker for myocardial damage in adults and children after heart surgery. The present study was undertaken to evaluate whether the integrated value (area under the curve(AUC)) of postoperative cTnI is a better mode to predict long-term outcome than post operative cTnI maximum value, after surgery for congenital heart defects (CHD). Methods: retrospective cohort study. 279 patients (mean age 4.6 years; range 0-17 years-old, 185 males) with congenital heart defect repair on cardiopulmonary by-pass were retrieved from our database including postoperative cTnI values. Maximal post operative cTnI value, post operative cTnI AUC value at 48h and total post operative cTnI AUC value were calculated and then correlated with duration of intubation, duration of ICU stay and mortality. Results: the mean duration of mechanical ventilation was 5.1+/-7.2 days and mean duration of ICU stay was 11.0+/- 13.3 days,11 patients (3.9%) died in post operative period. When comparing survivor and deceased groups, there was a significant difference in the mean value for max cTnI (16.7+/- 21.8 vs 59.2+/-41.4 mcg/l, p+0.0001), 48h AUC cTnI (82.0+/-110.7 vs 268.8+/-497.7 mcg/l, p+0.0001) and total AUC cTnI (623.8+/-1216.7 vs 2564+/-2826.0, p+0.0001). Analyses for duration of mechanical ventilation and duration of ICU stay by linear regression demonstrated a better correlation for 48h AUC cTnI (ventilation time r+0.82, p+0.0001 and ICU stay r+0.74, p+0.0001) then total AUC cTnI (ventilation time r+0.65, p+0.0001 and ICU stay r+0.60, p+0.0001) and max cTnI (ventilation time r+0.64, p+0.0001 and ICU stay r+0.60, p+0.0001). Conclusion: Cardiac Troponin I is a specific and sensitive marker of myocardial injury after congenital heart surgery and it may predict early in-hospital outcomes. Integration of post operative value of cTnI by calculation of AUC improves prediction of early in-hospital outcomes. It probably takes into account, not only the initial surgical procedure, but probably also incorporates the occurrence of hypoxic-ischemic phenomena in the post-operative period.

Net increase of lactate and glutamate concentration in activated human visual cortex detected with magnetic resonance spectroscopy at 7 tesla.

After the landmark studies reporting changes in the cerebral metabolic rate of glucose (CMRGlc ) in excess of those in oxygen (CMRO2 ) during physiological stimulation, several studies have examined the fate of the extra carbon taken up by the brain, reporting a wide range of changes in brain lactate from 20% to 250%. The present study reports functional magnetic resonance spectroscopy measurements at 7 Tesla using the enhanced sensitivity to study a small cohort (n = 6). Small increases in lactate (19% ± 4%, P < 0.05) and glutamate (4% ± 1%, P < 0.001) were seen within the first 2 min of activation. With the exception of glucose (12% ± 5%, P < 0.001), no other metabolite concentration changes beyond experimental error were significantly observed. Therefore, the present study confirms that lactate and glutamate changes during physiological stimulation are small (i.e. below 20%) and shows that the increased sensitivity allows reproduction of previous results with fewer subjects. In addition, the initial rate of glutamate and lactate concentration increases implies an increase in CMRO2 that is slightly below that of CMRGlc during the first 1-2 min of activation.

Prognostic value of arginase-II expression and regulatory T-cell infiltration in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

Tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes are present in a variety of tumors and play a central role in antitumor immune responses. Nevertheless, most cancers progress probably because tumors are only weakly immunogenic and develop multiple immunosuppressive mechanisms. In the present study, on head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, we found high intraepithelial infiltration of regulatory FOXP3(+) T cells, and relatively high levels of BDCA2(+) and FOXP3(+) cells in stromal (peripheral) regions of the tumors. Tumor-infiltrating (intraepithelial) FOXP3(+) T cells were significantly more frequent in patients with oropharynx and oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma and in patients without lymph node metastasis. Furthermore, arginase-II (ARG2) was expressed by 60%, inducible nitric oxide synthetase by 9%, cyclooxygenase-2 by 43%, and B-cell lymphoma 2 (BCL2) by 26% of tumors. Interestingly, the absence of ARG2 expression, enhanced stromal infiltration of CD11c(+) myeloid dendritic cells, and high numbers of FOXP3(+) T cells were each significantly associated with prolonged overall survival, and the latter two parameters were also confirmed by multivariate analysis. For disease-free survival, multivariate analysis revealed significant negative correlations with BCL2 and ARG2 expression by tumor cells. These findings shed new light on mechanisms of cancer progression, and provide rationales for therapeutic inhibition of immunosuppressive mechanisms in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

Presence of an oligodendroglioma-like component in newly diagnosed glioblastoma identifies a pathogenetically heterogeneous subgroup and lacks prognostic value: central pathology review of the EORTC_26981/NCIC_CE.3 trial.

Glioblastoma (GBM) is a morphologically heterogeneous tumor type with a median survival of only 15 months in clinical trial populations. However, survival varies greatly among patients. As part of a central pathology review, we addressed the question if patients with GBM displaying distinct morphologic features respond differently to combined chemo-radiotherapy with temozolomide. Morphologic features were systematically recorded for 360 cases with particular focus on the presence of an oligodendroglioma-like component and respective correlations with outcome and relevant molecular markers. GBM with an oligodendroglioma-like component (GBM-O) represented 15% of all confirmed GBM (52/339) and was not associated with a more favorable outcome. GBM-O encompassed a pathogenetically heterogeneous group, significantly enriched for IDH1 mutations (19 vs. 3%, p = 0.003) and EGFR amplifications (71 vs. 48%, p = 0.04) compared with other GBM, while co-deletion of 1p/19q was found in only one case and the MGMT methylation frequency was alike (47 vs. 46%). Expression profiles classified most of the GBM-O into two subtypes, 36% (5/14 evaluable) as proneural and 43% as classical GBM. The detection of pseudo-palisading necrosis (PPN) was associated with benefit from chemotherapy (p = 0.0002), while no such effect was present in the absence of PPN (p = 0.86). In the adjusted interaction model including clinical prognostic factors and MGMT status, PPN was borderline nonsignificant (p = 0.063). Taken together, recognition of an oligodendroglioma-like component in an otherwise classic GBM identifies a pathogenetically mixed group without prognostic significance. However, the presence of PPN may indicate biological features of clinical relevance for further improvement of therapy.

Value and prices in Russian economic thought (1890-1920)

The subject "Value and prices in Russian economic thought (1890--1920)" should evoke several names and debates in the reader's mind. For a long time, Western scholars have been aware that the Russian economists Tugan-Baranovsky and Bortkiewicz were active participants to the Marxian transformation problem, that the mathematical models of Dmitriev prefigured forthcoming neoricardian based models, and that many Russian economists were either supporting the Marxian labour theory of value or being revisionists. Moreover, these ideas were preparing the ground for Soviet planning. Russian scholars additionally knew that this period was the time of introduction of marginalism in Russia, and that, during this period, economists were active in thinking the relation of ethics with economic theory. All these issues are well covered in the existing literature. But there is a big gap that this dissertation intends to fill. The existing literature handles these pieces separately, although they are part of a single, more general, history. All these issues (the labour theory of value, marginalism, the Marxian transformation problem, planning, ethics, mathematical economics) were part of what this dissertation calls here "The Russian synthesis". The Russian synthesis (in the singular) designates here all the attempts at synthesis between classical political economy and marginalism, between labour theory of value and marginal utility, and between value and prices that occurred in Russian economic thought between 1890 and 1920, and that embraces the whole set of issues evoked above. This dissertation has the ambition of being the first comprehensive history of that Russian synthesis. In this, this contribution is unique. It has always surprised the author of the present dissertation that such a book has not yet been written. Several good reasons, both in terms of scarce availability of sources and of ideological restrictions, may accounted for a reasonable delay of several decades. But it is now urgent to remedy the situation before the protagonists of the Russian synthesis are definitely classified under the wrong labels in the pantheon of economic thought. To accomplish this task, it has seldom be sufficient to gather together the various existing studies on aspects of this story. It as been necessary to return to the primary sources in the Russian language. The most important part of the primary literature has never been translated, and in the last years only some of them have been republished in Russian. Therefore, most translations from the Russian have been made by the author of the present dissertation. The secondary literature has been surveyed in the languages that are familiar (Russian, English and French) or almost familiar (German) to the present author, and which are hopefully the most pertinent to the present investigation. Besides, and in order to increase the acquaintance with the text, which was the objective of all this, some archival sources were used. The analysis consists of careful chronological studies of the authors' writings and their evolution in their historical and intellectual context. As a consequence, the dissertation brings new authors to the foreground - Shaposhnikov and Yurovsky - who were traditionally confined to the substitutes' bench, because they only superficially touched the domains quoted above. In the Russian synthesis however, they played an important part of the story. As a side effect, some authors that used to play in the foreground - Dmitriev and Bortkiewicz - are relegated to the background, but are not forgotten. Besides, the dissertation refreshes the views on authors already known, such as Ziber and, especially, Tugan-Baranovsky. The ultimate objective of this dissertation is to change the opinion that one could have on "value and prices in Russian economic thought", by setting the Russian synthesis at the centre of the debates.

Quantitative Assessment of Handwriting Evidence: The Value of the Shape of the Letter "A"

To provide a quantitative support to the handwriting evidence evaluation, a new method was developed through the computation of a likelihood ratio based on a Bayesian approach. In the present paper, the methodology is briefly described and applied to data collected within a simulated case of a threatening letter. Fourier descriptors are used to characterise the shape of loops of handwritten characters "a" of the true writer of the threatening letter, and: 1) with reference characters "a" of the true writer of the threatening letter, and then 2) with characters "a" of a writer who did not write the threatening letter. The findings support that the probabilistic methodology correctly supports either the hypothesis of authorship or the alternative hypothesis. Further developments will enable the handwriting examiner to use this methodology as a helpful assistance to assess the strength of evidence in handwriting casework.

The Social Value of Being Ambivalent: Self-Presentational Concerns in the Expression of Attitudinal Ambivalence

We tested whether individuals can exert control over the expression of attitudinal ambivalence and if this control is exerted with self-presentational concerns. Using the self-presentation paradigm, participants reported more ambivalence about Genetically Modified Organisms ("GMO") in a standard and a self-enhancement (present yourself positively) conditions than in a self-depreciation (present yourself negatively) condition, on both felt (Experiments 1a and 2a) and potential ambivalence, in its cognitive (Experiments 1b and 2b) and affective components (Experiments 1b and 2c). The role of ambivalent attitudes in conveying a positive social value was confirmed by the fact that the above effect was found on a controversial attitude object (GMOs) but the opposite appeared on a non-controversial one (e.g. tooth brushing, a truism; Experiment 3). Such a reversal was obtained by directly manipulating the perception of controversy on GMOs (Experiment 4). Attitudinal ambivalence may thus serve an adaptive function, i.e. achieving a positive social value.

Effects of the transition time between muscle-tendon stretch and shortening on mechanical efficiency.

The net mechanical efficiency of positive work (eta(pos)) has been shown to increase if it is immediately preceded by negative work. This phenomenon is explained by the storage of elastic energy during the negative phase and its release during the subsequent positive phase. If a transition time (T) takes place, the elastic energy is dissipated into heat. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between eta(pos) and T, and to determine the minimal T required so that eta(pos) reached its minimal value. Seven healthy male subjects were tested during four series of lowering-raising of the body mass. In the first series (S (0)), the negative and positive phases were executed without any transition time. In the three other series, T was varied by a timer (0.12, 0.24 and 0.56 s for series S (1), S (2) and S (3), respectively). These exercises were performed on a force platform sensitive to vertical forces to measure the mechanical work and a gas analyser was used to determine the energy expenditure. The results indicated that eta(pos) was the highest (31.1%) for the series without any transition time (S (0)). The efficiencies observed with transition times (S (1), S (2) and S (3)) were 27.7, 26.0 and 23.8%, respectively, demonstrating that T plays an important role for mechanical efficiency. The investigation of the relationship between eta(pos) and T revealed that the minimal T required so that eta(pos) reached its minimal value is 0.59 s.