Canakinumab for acute gouty arthritis in patients with limited treatment options: results from two randomised, multicentre, active-controlled, double-blind trials and their initial extensions.

OBJECTIVES: Gouty arthritis patients for whom non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and colchicine are inappropriate have limited treatment options. Canakinumab, an anti-interleukin-1β monoclonal antibody, may be an option for such patients. The authors assessed the efficacy/safety of one dose of canakinumab 150 mg (n=230) or triamcinolone acetonide (TA) 40 mg (n=226) at baseline and upon a new flare in frequently flaring patients contraindicated for, intolerant of, or unresponsive to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and/or colchicine. Core study co-primary endpoints were pain intensity 72 h postdose (0-100 mm visual analogue scale and time to first new flare. METHODS: Two 12-week randomised, multicentre, active-controlled, double-blind, parallel-group core studies with double-blind 12-week extensions (response in acute flare and in prevention of episodes of re-flare in gout (β-RELIEVED and β-RELIEVED-II)). RESULTS: 82.6% patients had comorbidities. Mean 72-h visual analogue scale pain score was lower with canakinumab (25.0 mm vs 35.7 mm; difference, -10.7 mm; 95% CI -15.4 to -6.0; p<0.0001), with significantly less physician-assessed tenderness and swelling (ORs=2.16 and 2.74; both p≤0.01) versus TA. Canakinumab significantly delayed time to first new flare, reduced the risk of new flares by 62% versus TA (HR: 0.38; 95% CI 0.26 to 0.57) in the core studies and by 56% (HR: 0.44; 95% CI 0.32 to 0.60; both p≤0.0001) over the entire 24-week period, and decreased median C-reactive protein levels (p≤0.0001 at 72 h and 7 days). Over the 24-week period, adverse events were reported in 66.2% (canakinumab) and 52.8% (TA) and serious adverse events were reported in 8.0% (canakinumab) and 3.5% (TA) of patients. Adverse events reported more frequently with canakinumab included infections, low neutrophil count and low platelet count. CONCLUSION: Canakinumab provided significant pain and inflammation relief and reduced the risk of new flares in these patients with acute gouty arthritis.

On the efficient evaluation of ruin probabilities for completely monotone claim size distributions

In this paper we propose a highly accurate approximation procedure for ruin probabilities in the classical collective risk model, which is based on a quadrature/rational approximation procedure proposed in [2]. For a certain class of claim size distributions (which contains the completely monotone distributions) we give a theoretical justification for the method. We also show that under weaker assumptions on the claim size distribution, the method may still perform reasonably well in some cases. This in particular provides an efficient alternative to a related method proposed in [3]. A number of numerical illustrations for the performance of this procedure is provided for both completely monotone and other types of random variables.

The Gene Ontology in 2010: extensions and refinements.

The Gene Ontology (GO) Consortium (http://www.geneontology.org) (GOC) continues to develop, maintain and use a set of structured, controlled vocabularies for the annotation of genes, gene products and sequences. The GO ontologies are expanding both in content and in structure. Several new relationship types have been introduced and used, along with existing relationships, to create links between and within the GO domains. These improve the representation of biology, facilitate querying, and allow GO developers to systematically check for and correct inconsistencies within the GO. Gene product annotation using GO continues to increase both in the number of total annotations and in species coverage. GO tools, such as OBO-Edit, an ontology-editing tool, and AmiGO, the GOC ontology browser, have seen major improvements in functionality, speed and ease of use.

Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

Immunocytochemical localisation of microtubule-associated proteins 1b and 2 in the developing rat spinal cord.

The straightforward anatomical organisation of the developing and mature rat spinal cord was used to determine and interpret the time of appearance and expression patterns of microtubule-associated proteins (MAP) 1b and 2. Immunoblots revealed the presence of MAP1b and 2 in the early embryonic rat spinal cord and confirmed the specificity of the used anti-MAP mouse monoclonal antibodies. The immunocytochemical data demonstrated a rostral-to-caudal and ventral-to-dorsal gradient in the expression of MAP1b/2 within the developing spinal cord. In the matrix layer, MAP1b was found in a distinct radial pattern distributed between the membrana limitans interna and externa between embryonal day (E)12 and E15. Immunostaining for vimentin revealed that this MAP1b pattern was morphologically and topographically different from the radial glial pattern which was present in the matrix layer between E13 and E19. The ventral-to-dorsal developmental gradient of the MAP1b staining in the spinal cord matrix layer indicates a close involvement of MAP1b either in the organisation of the microtubules in the cytoplasmatic extensions of the proliferating neuroblasts or neuroblast mitosis. MAP2 could not be detected in the developing matrix layer. In the mantle and marginal layer, MAP1b was abundantly present between E12 and postnatal day (P)0. After birth, the staining intensity for MAP1b gradually decreased in both layers towards a faint appearance at maturity. The distribution patterns suggest an involvement of MAP1b in the maturation of the motor neurons, the contralaterally and ipsilaterally projecting axons and the ascending and descending long axons of the rat spinal cord. MAP2 was present in the spinal cord grey matter between E12 and maturity, which reflects a role for MAP2 in the development as well as in the maintenance of microtubules. The present description of the expression patterns of MAP1b and 2 in the developing spinal cord suggests important roles of the two proteins in various morphogenetic events. The findings may serve as the basis for future studies on the function of MAP1b and 2 in the development of the central nervous system.

On the applicability of mathematics : philosophical and historical perspectives

The present thesis is a contribution to the debate on the applicability of mathematics; it examines the interplay between mathematics and the world, using historical case studies. The first part of the thesis consists of four small case studies. In chapter 1, I criticize "ante rem structuralism", proposed by Stewart Shapiro, by showing that his so-called "finite cardinal structures" are in conflict with mathematical practice. In chapter 2, I discuss Leonhard Euler's solution to the Königsberg bridges problem. I propose interpreting Euler's solution both as an explanation within mathematics and as a scientific explanation. I put the insights from the historical case to work against recent philosophical accounts of the Königsberg case. In chapter 3, I analyze the predator-prey model, proposed by Lotka and Volterra. I extract some interesting philosophical lessons from Volterra's original account of the model, such as: Volterra's remarks on mathematical methodology; the relation between mathematics and idealization in the construction of the model; some relevant details in the derivation of the Third Law, and; notions of intervention that are motivated by one of Volterra's main mathematical tools, phase spaces. In chapter 4, I discuss scientific and mathematical attempts to explain the structure of the bee's honeycomb. In the first part, I discuss a candidate explanation, based on the mathematical Honeycomb Conjecture, presented in Lyon and Colyvan (2008). I argue that this explanation is not scientifically adequate. In the second part, I discuss other mathematical, physical and biological studies that could contribute to an explanation of the bee's honeycomb. The upshot is that most of the relevant mathematics is not yet sufficiently understood, and there is also an ongoing debate as to the biological details of the construction of the bee's honeycomb. The second part of the thesis is a bigger case study from physics: the genesis of GR. Chapter 5 is a short introduction to the history, physics and mathematics that is relevant to the genesis of general relativity (GR). Chapter 6 discusses the historical question as to what Marcel Grossmann contributed to the genesis of GR. I will examine the so-called "Entwurf" paper, an important joint publication by Einstein and Grossmann, containing the first tensorial formulation of GR. By comparing Grossmann's part with the mathematical theories he used, we can gain a better understanding of what is involved in the first steps of assimilating a mathematical theory to a physical question. In chapter 7, I introduce, and discuss, a recent account of the applicability of mathematics to the world, the Inferential Conception (IC), proposed by Bueno and Colyvan (2011). I give a short exposition of the IC, offer some critical remarks on the account, discuss potential philosophical objections, and I propose some extensions of the IC. In chapter 8, I put the Inferential Conception (IC) to work in the historical case study: the genesis of GR. I analyze three historical episodes, using the conceptual apparatus provided by the IC. In episode one, I investigate how the starting point of the application process, the "assumed structure", is chosen. Then I analyze two small application cycles that led to revisions of the initial assumed structure. In episode two, I examine how the application of "new" mathematics - the application of the Absolute Differential Calculus (ADC) to gravitational theory - meshes with the IC. In episode three, I take a closer look at two of Einstein's failed attempts to find a suitable differential operator for the field equations, and apply the conceptual tools provided by the IC so as to better understand why he erroneously rejected both the Ricci tensor and the November tensor in the Zurich Notebook.

Theoretical study on receptor-G protein recognition: new insights into the mechanisms of the alpha1b-adrenergic recptor activation

This work compares the structural/dynamics features of the wild-type alb-adrenergic receptor (AR) with those of the D142A active mutant and the agonist-bound state. The two active receptor forms were compared in their isolated states as well as in their ability to form homodimers and to recognize the G alpha q beta 1 gamma 2 heterotrimer. The analysis of the isolated structures revealed that, although the mutation- and agonist-induced active states of the alpha 1b-AR are different, they, however, share several structural peculiarities including (a) the release of some constraining interactions found in the wild-type receptor and (b) the opening of a cytosolic crevice formed by the second and third intracellular loops and the cytosolic extensions of helices 5 and 6. Accordingly, also their tendency to form homodimers shows commonalties and differences. In fact, in both the active receptor forms, helix 6 plays a crucial role in mediating homodimerization. However, the homodimeric models result from different interhelical assemblies. On the same line of evidence, in both of the active receptor forms, the cytosolic opened crevice recognizes similar domains on the G protein. However, the docking solutions are differently populated and the receptor-G protein preorientation models suggest that the final complexes should be characterized by different interaction patterns.

Endovascular thoracic aortic aneurysm repair without angiography.

OBJECTIVE: : Intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) generates high definition circumferential cross-sectional images and provides real-time readout of vascular dimensions, including visualization of vessel branches. We have used it as an alternative to angiography in the endovascular thoracic aneurysm repair work-up. METHODS: : Out of consecutive 203 patients with descending thoracic aortic aneurysm, 89 (43.8%) received endovascular treatment [mean age, 68 ± 8 years; range, 29-82; male, 79 (88.7%); female, 10 (11.3%)] without using angiography during the endovascular procedure. IVUS (6 F, 12.5 MHz probe or 10 F 9 MHz) coupled with fluoroscopy for the placement of radiopaque markers was used for target site identification, landing zone measurement, device positioning, and assessment of endovascular repair. RESULTS: : Hospital mortality was 4/89 (4.5%). Number of devices implanted in each patient was 1.2 (range, 1-3). X-ray exposure time was 12 ± 8 minutes. Median procedure time was 63 ± 20 minutes. Conversion to open surgery was necessary in one patient (1.1%) because of aortic dissection. In nine patients (10.1%) left subclavian artery was covered because of a short neck. Two patients (2.2%) had vascular access lesions and required surgical repair. One patient developed paraplegia (1.1%). Early endoleak was observed in eight patients (8.9%) and 4 (4.5%) required additional procedures (proximal or distal extensions). Late conversion was necessary in one patient (1.1%). CONCLUSIONS: : IVUS provides all information necessary for device selection, target site identification as well as safe and correct deployment of thoracic endoprostheses and makes periprocedural angiography unnecessary, thus avoiding the risk of renal failure because of contrast medium.

Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Expression of human estrogen receptor mutants in Xenopus oocytes: correlation between transcriptional activity and ability to form protein-DNA complexes.

The human estrogen receptor (hER) is a trans-acting regulatory protein composed of a series of discrete functional domains. We have microinjected an hER expression vector (HEO) into Xenopus oocyte nuclei and demonstrate, using Western blot assay, that the hER is synthesized. When nuclear extracts from oocytes were prepared and incubated in the presence of a 2.7 kb DNA fragment comprising the 5' end of the vitellogenin gene B2, formation of estrogen-dependent complexes could be visualized by electron microscopy over the estrogen responsive element (ERE). Of crucial importance is the observation that the complex formation is inhibited by the estrogen antagonist tamoxifen, is restored by the addition of the hormone and does not take place with extracts from control oocytes injected with the expression vector lacking the sequences encoding the receptor. The presence of the biologically active hER is confirmed in co-injection experiments, in which HEO is co-introduced with a CAT reporter gene under the control of a vitellogenin promoter containing or lacking the ERE. CAT assays and primer extensions analyses reveal that both the receptor and the ERE are essential for estrogen induced stimulation of transcription. The same approach was used to analyze selective hER mutants. We find that the DNA binding domain (region C) is essential for protein--DNA complex formation at the ERE but is not sufficient by itself to activate transcription from the reporter gene. In addition to region C, both the hormone binding (region E) and amino terminal (region A/B) domains are needed for an efficient transcription activation.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Reverse-transcriptase-associated RNaseH activity mediates template switching during reverse transcription in vitro.

During the first steps of reverse transcription of the retroviral genome, sequences present at the extremities of the RNA are used to reconstitute a host cell PolII promoter. The assembly of the promoter occurs by template switching, which takes advantage of a direct repeat at the ends of the RNA molecule. These steps are catalysed by the viral reverse transcriptase, which carries an intrinsic RNaseH activity that is probably also involved therein. To study the role of the RNaseH activity in this first template-switching event, an in vitro system has been developed based on primer extensions of synthetic RNAs. When an RNA was reverse transcribed with wild-type reverse transcriptase in the presence of a second RNA the 3' part of which was repeated at the 5' end of the first one, extension products could be observed corresponding to a chimeric cDNA comprising both RNA species. This template switching could not be detected when a mutant reverse transcriptase lacking the RNaseH activity was used. The results show that the RNaseH activity is needed to remove the 5' RNA sequences from the cDNA:RNA hybrid thereby enabling its translocation to another RNA containing an appropriate complementary target sequence.

Sleep EEG changes after middle cerebral artery infarcts in mice: different effects of striatal and cortical lesions.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Hemispheric stroke in humans is associated with sleep-wake disturbances and sleep electroencephalogram (EEG) changes. The correlation between these changes and stroke extent remains unclear. In the absence of experimental data, we assessed sleep EEG changes after focal cerebral ischemia of different extensions in mice. DESIGN: Following electrode implantation and baseline sleep-wake EEG recordings, mice were submitted to sham surgery (control group), 30 minutes of intraluminal middle cerebral artery (MCA) occlusion (striatal stroke), or distal MCA electrocoagulation (cortical stroke). One and 12 days after stroke, sleep-wake EEG recordings were repeated. The EEG recorded from the healthy hemisphere was analyzed visually and automatically (fast Fourier analysis) according to established criteria. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Striatal stroke induced an increase in non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep and a reduction of rapid eye movement sleep. These changes were detectable both during the light and the dark phase at day 1 and persisted until day 12 after stroke. Cortical stroke induced a less-marked increase in NREM sleep, which was present only at day 1 and during the dark phase. In cortical stroke, the increase in NREM sleep was associated in the wake EEG power spectra, with an increase in the theta and a reduction in the beta activity. CONCLUSION: Cortical and striatal stroke lead to different sleep-wake EEG changes in mice, which probably reflect variable effects on sleep-promoting and wakefulness-maintaining neuronal networks.