Analyse des risques d'extinction des populations naturelles

A review of extinction risk analysis and viability methods is presented. The importance of environmental, demographic and genetic uncertainties, as well as the role of catastrophes are successively considered, and different approaches aiming at the integration of these risk factors in predictive population dynamic models are discussed.

Use of DNA profiles for investigation using a simulated national DNA database: Part I. Partial SGM Plus profiles.

In traditional criminal investigation, uncertainties are often dealt with using a combination of common sense, practical considerations and experience, but rarely with tailored statistical models. For example, in some countries, in order to search for a given profile in the national DNA database, it must have allelic information for six or more of the ten SGM Plus loci for a simple trace. If the profile does not have this amount of information then it cannot be searched in the national DNA database (NDNAD). This requirement (of a result at six or more loci) is not based on a statistical approach, but rather on the feeling that six or more would be sufficient. A statistical approach, however, could be more rigorous and objective and would take into consideration factors such as the probability of adventitious matches relative to the actual database size and/or investigator's requirements in a sensible way. Therefore, this research was undertaken to establish scientific foundations pertaining to the use of partial SGM Plus loci profiles (or similar) for investigation.

Seven years of gamma-ray spectrometry interlaboratory comparisons in Switzerland.

Since the 1990s, regular comparisons of gamma-ray spectrometry in Switzerland were organized to improve laboratory abilities to measure the radioactivity in the environment and food stuffs at typical routine levels. The activity concentration of the test samples and the evaluation of the associated uncertainties remained each year the main required test result. Over the years, the comparisons used certified reference solutions as well as environmental samples. The aim of this study is to research the effect of the comparisons on measurement quality. An analysis of the seven last interlaboratory comparisons revealed that the Swiss measurement capability is up to date. In addition, the results showed that the participants now have an improved evaluation of the uncertainties associated with their measurement.