Age-related change in melanin-based coloration of Barn owls (Tyto alba): females that become more female-like and males that become more male-like perform better

Ornament expression fluctuates with age in many organisms. Whether these changes are adaptively plastic is poorly known. In order to understand the ultimate function of melanin-based ornaments, we studied their within-individual fluctuations and their covariation with fitness-related traits. In barn owls (Tyto alba), individuals vary from reddish-brown pheomelanic to white and from immaculate to marked with black eumelanic spots, males being less reddish and less spotted than females. During the first molt, both sexes became less pheomelanic, females displayed larger spots and males fewer spots, but the extent of these changes was not associated with reproduction. At subsequent molts, intra-individual changes in melanin-based traits covaried with simultaneous reproduction changes. Adult females bred earlier in the season and laid larger eggs when they became scattered with larger spots, while adults of both sexes produced larger broods when they became whiter. These results suggest that the production of melanin pigments and fitness-related life history traits are concomitantly regulated in a sex-specific way.

Penetrance of marked cognitive impairment in older male carriers of the FMR1 gene premutation.

BACKGROUND: Male carriers of the FMR1 premutation are at risk of developing the fragile X-associated tremor/ataxia syndrome (FXTAS), a newly recognised and largely under-diagnosed late onset neurodegenerative disorder. Patients affected with FXTAS primarily present with cerebellar ataxia and intention tremor. Cognitive decline has also been associated with the premutation, but the lack of data on its penetrance is a growing concern for clinicians who provide genetic counselling. METHODS: The Mattis Dementia Rating Scale (MDRS) was administered in a double blind fashion to 74 men aged 50 years or more recruited from fragile X families (35 premutation carriers and 39 intrafamilial controls) regardless of their clinical manifestation. Based on previous publications, marked cognitive impairment was defined by a score <or=123 on the MDRS. RESULTS: Both logistic and survival models confirmed that in addition to age and education level, premutation size plays a significant (p<0.01 and p<0.03 for logistic and survival model, respectively) role in cognitive impairment. The estimated penetrance of marked cognitive impairment in our sample (adjusted for the mean age 63.4 years and mean education level 9.7 years) for midsize/large (70-200 CGG) and small (55-69 CGG) premutation alleles was 33.3% (relative risk (RR) 6.5; p = 0.01) and 5.9% (RR 1.15; p = 0.9) respectively. Penetrance in the control group was 5.1%. CONCLUSIONS: Male carriers of midsize to large premutation alleles had a sixfold increased risk of developing cognitive decline and the risk increases with allele size. In addition, it was observed that cognitive impairment may precede motor symptoms. These data provide guidance for genetic counselling although larger samples are required to refine these estimates.

Essays in higher moment asset pricing and liquidity risk

This thesis focuses on theoretical asset pricing models and their empirical applications. I aim to investigate the following noteworthy problems: i) if the relationship between asset prices and investors' propensities to gamble and to fear disaster is time varying, ii) if the conflicting evidence for the firm and market level skewness can be explained by downside risk, Hi) if costly learning drives liquidity risk. Moreover, empirical tests support the above assumptions and provide novel findings in asset pricing, investment decisions, and firms' funding liquidity. The first chapter considers a partial equilibrium model where investors have heterogeneous propensities to gamble and fear disaster. Skewness preference represents the desire to gamble, while kurtosis aversion represents fear of extreme returns. Using US data from 1988 to 2012, my model demonstrates that in bad times, risk aversion is higher, more people fear disaster, and fewer people gamble, in contrast to good times. This leads to a new empirical finding: gambling preference has a greater impact on asset prices during market downturns than during booms. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay introduces a foramula based on conditional CAPM for decomposing the market skewness. We find that the major market upward and downward movements can be well preadicted by the asymmetric comovement of betas, which is characterized by an indicator called "Systematic Downside Risk" (SDR). We find that SDR can efafectively forecast future stock market movements and we obtain out-of-sample R-squares (compared with a strategy using historical mean) of more than 2.27% with monthly data. The second essay reconciles a well-known empirical fact: aggregating positively skewed firm returns leads to negatively skewed market return. We reconcile this fact through firms' greater response to negative maraket news than positive market news. We also propose several market return predictors, such as downside idiosyncratic skewness. The third chapter studies the funding liquidity risk based on a general equialibrium model which features two agents: one entrepreneur and one external investor. Only the investor needs to acquire information to estimate the unobservable fundamentals driving the economic outputs. The novelty is that information acquisition is more costly in bad times than in good times, i.e. counter-cyclical information cost, as supported by previous empirical evidence. Later we show that liquidity risks are principally driven by costly learning. Résumé Cette thèse présente des modèles théoriques dévaluation des actifs et leurs applications empiriques. Mon objectif est d'étudier les problèmes suivants: la relation entre l'évaluation des actifs et les tendances des investisseurs à parier et à crainadre le désastre varie selon le temps ; les indications contraires pour l'entreprise et l'asymétrie des niveaux de marché peuvent être expliquées par les risques de perte en cas de baisse; l'apprentissage coûteux augmente le risque de liquidité. En outre, des tests empiriques confirment les suppositions ci-dessus et fournissent de nouvelles découvertes en ce qui concerne l'évaluation des actifs, les décisions relatives aux investissements et la liquidité de financement des entreprises. Le premier chapitre examine un modèle d'équilibre où les investisseurs ont des tendances hétérogènes à parier et à craindre le désastre. La préférence asymétrique représente le désir de parier, alors que le kurtosis d'aversion représente la crainte du désastre. En utilisant les données des Etats-Unis de 1988 à 2012, mon modèle démontre que dans les mauvaises périodes, l'aversion du risque est plus grande, plus de gens craignent le désastre et moins de gens parient, conatrairement aux bonnes périodes. Ceci mène à une nouvelle découverte empirique: la préférence relative au pari a un plus grand impact sur les évaluations des actifs durant les ralentissements de marché que durant les booms économiques. Exploitant uniquement cette relation générera un revenu excédentaire annuel de 7,74% qui n'est pas expliqué par les modèles factoriels populaires. Le second chapitre comprend deux essais. Le premier essai introduit une foramule base sur le CAPM conditionnel pour décomposer l'asymétrie du marché. Nous avons découvert que les mouvements de hausses et de baisses majeures du marché peuvent être prédits par les mouvements communs des bêtas. Un inadicateur appelé Systematic Downside Risk, SDR (risque de ralentissement systématique) est créé pour caractériser cette asymétrie dans les mouvements communs des bêtas. Nous avons découvert que le risque de ralentissement systématique peut prévoir les prochains mouvements des marchés boursiers de manière efficace, et nous obtenons des carrés R hors échantillon (comparés avec une stratégie utilisant des moyens historiques) de plus de 2,272% avec des données mensuelles. Un investisseur qui évalue le marché en utilisant le risque de ralentissement systématique aurait obtenu une forte hausse du ratio de 0,206. Le second essai fait cadrer un fait empirique bien connu dans l'asymétrie des niveaux de march et d'entreprise, le total des revenus des entreprises positiveament asymétriques conduit à un revenu de marché négativement asymétrique. Nous décomposons l'asymétrie des revenus du marché au niveau de l'entreprise et faisons cadrer ce fait par une plus grande réaction des entreprises aux nouvelles négatives du marché qu'aux nouvelles positives du marché. Cette décomposition révélé plusieurs variables de revenus de marché efficaces tels que l'asymétrie caractéristique pondérée par la volatilité ainsi que l'asymétrie caractéristique de ralentissement. Le troisième chapitre fournit une nouvelle base théorique pour les problèmes de liquidité qui varient selon le temps au sein d'un environnement de marché incomplet. Nous proposons un modèle d'équilibre général avec deux agents: un entrepreneur et un investisseur externe. Seul l'investisseur a besoin de connaitre le véritable état de l'entreprise, par conséquent, les informations de paiement coutent de l'argent. La nouveauté est que l'acquisition de l'information coute plus cher durant les mauvaises périodes que durant les bonnes périodes, comme cela a été confirmé par de précédentes expériences. Lorsque la récession comamence, l'apprentissage coûteux fait augmenter les primes de liquidité causant un problème d'évaporation de liquidité, comme cela a été aussi confirmé par de précédentes expériences.

20 years of eosinophilic esophagitis in Olten county: population-based, prospective documentation of an increasing incidence

Background and Aims: Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE) is reported with increasing frequency over the last two decades. However, it is still unknown whether this reflects a true increase in incidence or just an increased awareness by gastroenterologists. Therefore, we evaluated the incidence and cumulative prevalence of EoE in Olten county over the last 20 years. Methods: Olten county is an area of approximately 91,000 inhabitants without pronounced demographic changes in the last two decades. EoE evaluation is based upon two gastroenterology centers and one pathology center. No public programs for increased EoE awareness were implemented in this region. All EoE patients diagnosed from 1989 to 2009 were entered prospectively into the Olten county database. Results: Fourty-six patients (76% males, mean age 41±16 yrs) were diagnosed with EoE from 1989 to 2009. Ninety-four percent presented with dysphagia. In 70% of the patients concomitant allergies were found. The number of upper endoscopies per year was stable during the entire observation period. An average annual incidence rate of 2/100,000 was found (range 0-8) with a marked increase in the period from 2001 to 2009. A current cumulative EoE prevalence of 43/100,000 inhabitants was calculated. The mean diagnostic delay (time from first symptoms to diagnosis) was 4.3 years from 1989 to 1998 and 4.8 years from 1999 to 2009. Conclusions: Over the last 20 years, a significant increase in EoE incidence was found in a stable indicator region of Switzerland. The constant rate of upper endoscopies, the constant diagnostic delay, as well as the lack of EoE awareness programs in Olten county indicate a true increase in EoE incidence.

Escalating epidemiology of eosinophilic esophagitis: 21 years of prospective population-based documentation in Olten county

Background and Aims: Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE) is detected with a dramatically increasingfrequency during the last decades. However, it is still unknown whether this reflects atrue increase in incidence or just an increased awareness by gastroenterologists. We therefore,prospectively assessed incidence and prevalence of EoE in an epidemiologically well definedindicator area over the last 21 years. Methods: Olten County is an area of approximately90,000 inhabitants without pronounced demographic changes during the last two decades.Two EoE-experienced gastroenterologists and one pathology centre are responsible forcovering the gastroenterological service of the area. No public programs for increasingawareness of EoE were implemented in this region. Since 1989 all individuals with confirmeddiagnosis of EoE living in Olten County were entered prospectively into the database. Results:Forty-six patients (76% males, mean age 41±16 yrs) were diagnosed with EoE between1989 and 2009. Ninety-four percent of patients presented with dysphagia. An average annualincidence rate of 1.88/100,000 was found (range 0-8) with a marked increase in the periodfrom 2004 to 2009. The cumulative EoE prevalence rose up to 35.1/100,000 inhabitantsin 2009. No significant change was observed for the median diagnostic delay, as it was 3years from 1989 to 1998 and 2 years from 1999 to 2009 with age < 40 years representinga risk factor for retarded diagnosis. The number of upper endoscopies per year increasedby 63% in the period from 1999 to 2009 compared to the years 1989 to 1998 which ismarkedly less then the increase in the incidence rate of 150% for the same periods. Conclusions:Over the last 21 years, a significant increase in EoE incidence and prevalence wasfound in an epidemiologically stable indicator region of Switzerland. The constant diagnosticdelay, the number of newly diagnosed EoE cases that was much more pronounced thanthe modest increase of performed upper endoscopies, as well as the lack of EoE awarenessprograms in Olten County indicates a true increase in EoE incidence.

Appropriateness of respiratory care: development of evidence-based guidelines in an acute care hospital

Background: Respiratory care is universally recognised as useful, but its indications and practice vary markedly. In order to improve appropriateness of respiratory care in our hospital, we developed evidence-based local guidelines in a collaborative effort involving physiotherapists, physicians, and health services researchers. Methods: Recommendations were developed using the standardised RAND appropriateness method. A literature search was performed for the period between 1995 and 2008 based on terms associated with guidelines and with respiratory care. Publications were assessed according to the Oxford classification of quality of evidence. A working group prepared proposals for recommendations which were then independently rated by a multidisciplinary expert panel. All recommendations were then discussed in common and indications for procedures were rated confidentially a second time by the experts. Each indication for respiratory care was classified as appropriate, uncertain, or inappropriate, based on the panel median rating and the degree of intra-panel agreement. Results: Recommendations were formulated for the following procedures: non-invasive ventilation, continuous positive airway pressure, intermittent positive pressure breathing, intrapulmonary percussive ventilation, mechanical insufflation-exsufflation, incentive spirometry, positive expiratory pressure, nasotracheal suctioning, noninstrumental airway clearance techniques. Each recommendation referred to a particular medical condition, and was assigned to a hierarchical category based on the quality of evidence from literature supporting the recommendation and on the consensus of experts. Conclusion: Despite a marked heterogeneity of scientific evidence, the method used allowed us to develop commonly agreed local guidelines for respiratory care. In addition, this work fostered a closer relationship between physiotherapists and physicians in our institution.

Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

Appropriateness of respiratory care: evidence-based guidelines.

PRINCIPLES: Respiratory care is universally recognised as useful, but its indications and practice vary markedly. In order to improve the appropriateness of respiratory care in our hospital, we developed evidence-based local guidelines in a collaborative effort involving physiotherapists, physicians and health service researchers. METHODS: Recommendations were developed using the standardised RAND appropriateness method. A literature search was conducted based on terms associated with guidelines and with respiratory care. A working group prepared proposals for recommendations which were then independently rated by a multidisciplinary expert panel. All recommendations were then discussed in common and indications for procedures were rated confidentially a second time by the experts. The recommendations were then formulated on the basis of the level of evidence in the literature and on the consensus among these experts. RESULTS: Recommendations were formulated for the following procedures: non-invasive ventilation, continuous positive airway pressure, intermittent positive pressure breathing, intrapulmonary percussive ventilation, mechanical insufflation-exsufflation, incentive spirometry, positive expiratory pressure, nasotracheal suctioning and non-instrumental airway clearance techniques. Each recommendation referred to a particular medical condition and was assigned to a hierarchical category based on the quality of the evidence from the literature supporting the recommendation and on the consensus among the experts. CONCLUSION: Despite a marked heterogeneity of scientific evidence, the method used allowed us to develop commonly agreed local guidelines for respiratory care. In addition, this work fostered a closer relationship between physiotherapists and physicians in our institution.

Pseudoxanthoma elasticum : evaluation of diagnostic criteria based on molecular data

RÉSUMÉ EN FRANCAIS : Introduction: Le pseudoxanthome élastique (PXE) est une maladie génétique. Les mutations responsables ont été localisées au niveau du gène codant le transporteur transmembranaire ABC-C6. Des calcifications pathologiques des fibres élastiques de la peau, des yeux et du système cardiovasculaire en sont la conséquence. Buts: Evaluer les critères diagnostiques actuels du PXE en se basant sur les données moléculaires. Méthodes: 142 sujets provenant de 10 familles avec une anamnèse familiale positive pour le PXE ont été investiguées sur le plan clinique, histopathologique et génétique. Résultats: 25 sujets se sont avérés être homozygotes pour le gène PXE muté. 23 d'entre eux ont présenté les manifestations cliniques et histopathologique typiques. Les deux autres souffraient d'une élastose et d'une dégénérescence maculaire si importante qu'un diagnostic de PXE ne pouvait pas être confirmé cliniquement. 67 sujets se sont révélés être des porteurs hétérozygotes et 50 ne présentaient pas de mutation. De ces 117 sujets, 116 n'ont montré aucune lésion cutanée ou ophtalmique pouvant correspondre au PXE. Un seul des sujets sans mutation a présenté une importante élastose solaire ainsi qu'une cicatrisation de la rétine, imitant les lésions typiques du PXE. Quatre des 67 sujets hétérozygotes ont eu une biopsie de peau, dont les analyses histopathologique se sont avérées normales. Conclusion: Dans notre cohorte de patients, le PXE était transmis exclusivement de façoh autosomique récessive. La corrélation retrouvée entre le génotype et le phénotype a permis de confirmer les critères diagnostiques majeurs actuels. Le diagnostic clinique peut être difficile, voir impossible, chez des patients atteints d'une élastose solaire importante et/ou d'une dégénérescence maculaire étendue. Dans ces cas, un test moléculaire est nécessaire afin de confirmer le diagnostic de PXE. A notre connaissance, notre étude présentée ici est le premier travail comparant des données cliniques à des données moléculaires dans le domaine du PXE. ABSTRACT : Background: Pseudoxanthoma elasticum (PXE) is a genetic disorder due to mutations in the gene encoding the transmembrane transporter protein adenosine triphosphate binding cassette (ABC)-C6, resulting in calcifications of elastic fibers in the skin, eyes and cardiovascular system. Objectives: To evaluate the diagnostic criteria for PXE based on molecular data. Methods: Of 10 families with a positive history of PXE 142 subjects were investigated for clinical symptoms, histological findings and genetic haplotype analysis. Results: Of these, 25 subjects were haplotypic homozygous for PXE and 23 had typical clinical and histopathological manifestations. Two of the 25 patients showed such marked solar elastosis and macular degeneration that PXE could not be confirmed clinically. Sixty-seven subject were haplotypic heterozygous carriers and 50 haplotypic homozygous unaffected. Of these 117 subjects, 116 showed no cutaneous or ophthalmologic signs of PXE. In one of the 50 haplotypic homozygous unaffected patients important solar elastosis and scaring of the retina mimicked PXE lesions. Only four of the 67 haplotypic heterozygous carriers had biopsies of nonlesional skin; all were histopathologically normal. Conclusions: In our patients, PXE presents as an autosomal recessive genodermatosis. Correlation of haplotype and phenotype confirmed actual major diagnostic criteria. In patients with marked solar elastosis and/ or severe macular degeneration clinical diagnosis can be impossible and molecular testing is needed to confirm the presence of PXE. To the best of our knowledge our large study compares for the first time clinical findings with molecular data.

Three essays in financial economics: asset pricing, optimal portfolio selection and financial integration

Executive Summary The unifying theme of this thesis is the pursuit of a satisfactory ways to quantify the riskureward trade-off in financial economics. First in the context of a general asset pricing model, then across models and finally across country borders. The guiding principle in that pursuit was to seek innovative solutions by combining ideas from different fields in economics and broad scientific research. For example, in the first part of this thesis we sought a fruitful application of strong existence results in utility theory to topics in asset pricing. In the second part we implement an idea from the field of fuzzy set theory to the optimal portfolio selection problem, while the third part of this thesis is to the best of our knowledge, the first empirical application of some general results in asset pricing in incomplete markets to the important topic of measurement of financial integration. While the first two parts of this thesis effectively combine well-known ways to quantify the risk-reward trade-offs the third one can be viewed as an empirical verification of the usefulness of the so-called "good deal bounds" theory in designing risk-sensitive pricing bounds. Chapter 1 develops a discrete-time asset pricing model, based on a novel ordinally equivalent representation of recursive utility. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to use a member of a novel class of recursive utility generators to construct a representative agent model to address some long-lasting issues in asset pricing. Applying strong representation results allows us to show that the model features countercyclical risk premia, for both consumption and financial risk, together with low and procyclical risk free rate. As the recursive utility used nests as a special case the well-known time-state separable utility, all results nest the corresponding ones from the standard model and thus shed light on its well-known shortcomings. The empirical investigation to support these theoretical results, however, showed that as long as one resorts to econometric methods based on approximating conditional moments with unconditional ones, it is not possible to distinguish the model we propose from the standard one. Chapter 2 is a join work with Sergei Sontchik. There we provide theoretical and empirical motivation for aggregation of performance measures. The main idea is that as it makes sense to apply several performance measures ex-post, it also makes sense to base optimal portfolio selection on ex-ante maximization of as many possible performance measures as desired. We thus offer a concrete algorithm for optimal portfolio selection via ex-ante optimization over different horizons of several risk-return trade-offs simultaneously. An empirical application of that algorithm, using seven popular performance measures, suggests that realized returns feature better distributional characteristics relative to those of realized returns from portfolio strategies optimal with respect to single performance measures. When comparing the distributions of realized returns we used two partial risk-reward orderings first and second order stochastic dominance. We first used the Kolmogorov Smirnov test to determine if the two distributions are indeed different, which combined with a visual inspection allowed us to demonstrate that the way we propose to aggregate performance measures leads to portfolio realized returns that first order stochastically dominate the ones that result from optimization only with respect to, for example, Treynor ratio and Jensen's alpha. We checked for second order stochastic dominance via point wise comparison of the so-called absolute Lorenz curve, or the sequence of expected shortfalls for a range of quantiles. As soon as the plot of the absolute Lorenz curve for the aggregated performance measures was above the one corresponding to each individual measure, we were tempted to conclude that the algorithm we propose leads to portfolio returns distribution that second order stochastically dominates virtually all performance measures considered. Chapter 3 proposes a measure of financial integration, based on recent advances in asset pricing in incomplete markets. Given a base market (a set of traded assets) and an index of another market, we propose to measure financial integration through time by the size of the spread between the pricing bounds of the market index, relative to the base market. The bigger the spread around country index A, viewed from market B, the less integrated markets A and B are. We investigate the presence of structural breaks in the size of the spread for EMU member country indices before and after the introduction of the Euro. We find evidence that both the level and the volatility of our financial integration measure increased after the introduction of the Euro. That counterintuitive result suggests the presence of an inherent weakness in the attempt to measure financial integration independently of economic fundamentals. Nevertheless, the results about the bounds on the risk free rate appear plausible from the view point of existing economic theory about the impact of integration on interest rates.

Proximate basis of the covariation between a melanin-based female ornament and offspring quality.

In contradiction to sexual selection theory, several studies showed that although the expression of melanin-based ornaments is usually under strong genetic control and weakly sensitive to the environment and body condition, they can signal individual quality. Covariation between a melanin-based ornament and phenotypic quality may result from pleiotropic effects of genes involved in the production of melanin pigments. Two categories of genes responsible for variation in melanin production may be relevant, namely those that trigger melanin production (yes or no response) and those that determine the amount of pigments produced. To investigate which of these two hypotheses is the most likely, I reanalysed data collected from barn owls ( Tyto alba). The underparts of this bird vary from immaculate to heavily marked with black spots of varying size. Published cross-fostering experiments have shown that the proportion of the plumage surface covered with black spots, a eumelanin composite trait so-called "plumage spottiness", in females positively covaries with offspring humoral immunocompetence, and negatively with offspring parasite resistance (i.show $132#e. the ability to reduce fecundity of ectoparasites) and fluctuating asymmetry of wing feathers. However, it is unclear which component of plumage spottiness causes these relationships, namely genes responsible for variation in number of spots or in spot diameter. Number of spots reflects variation in the expression of genes triggering the switch from no eumelanin production to production, whereas spot diameter reflects variation in the expression of genes determining the amount of eumelanin produced per spot. In the present study, multiple regression analyses, performed on the same data sets, showed that humoral immunocompetence, parasite resistance and wing fluctuating asymmetry of cross-fostered offspring covary with spot diameter measured in their genetic mother, but not with number of spots. This suggests that genes responsible for variation in the quantity of eumelanin produced per spot are responsible for covariation between a melanin ornament and individual attributes. In contrast, genes responsible for variation in number of black spots may not play a significant role. Covariation between a eumelanin female trait and offspring quality may therefore be due to an indirect effect of melanin production.

Simulated-annealing-based conditional simulation for the local-scale characterization of heterogeneous aquifers

Simulated-annealing-based conditional simulations provide a flexible means of quantitatively integrating diverse types of subsurface data. Although such techniques are being increasingly used in hydrocarbon reservoir characterization studies, their potential in environmental, engineering and hydrological investigations is still largely unexploited. Here, we introduce a novel simulated annealing (SA) algorithm geared towards the integration of high-resolution geophysical and hydrological data which, compared to more conventional approaches, provides significant advancements in the way that large-scale structural information in the geophysical data is accounted for. Model perturbations in the annealing procedure are made by drawing from a probability distribution for the target parameter conditioned to the geophysical data. This is the only place where geophysical information is utilized in our algorithm, which is in marked contrast to other approaches where model perturbations are made through the swapping of values in the simulation grid and agreement with soft data is enforced through a correlation coefficient constraint. Another major feature of our algorithm is the way in which available geostatistical information is utilized. Instead of constraining realizations to match a parametric target covariance model over a wide range of spatial lags, we constrain the realizations only at smaller lags where the available geophysical data cannot provide enough information. Thus we allow the larger-scale subsurface features resolved by the geophysical data to have much more due control on the output realizations. Further, since the only component of the SA objective function required in our approach is a covariance constraint at small lags, our method has improved convergence and computational efficiency over more traditional methods. Here, we present the results of applying our algorithm to the integration of porosity log and tomographic crosshole georadar data to generate stochastic realizations of the local-scale porosity structure. Our procedure is first tested on a synthetic data set, and then applied to data collected at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site.

A new poly(ortho ester)-based drug delivery system as an adjunct treatment in filtering surgery.

PURPOSE: Pharmacologic modulation of wound healing after glaucoma filtering surgery remains a major clinical challenge in ophthalmology. Poly(ortho ester) (POE) is a bioerodible and biocompatible viscous polymer potentially useful as a sustained drug delivery system that allows the frequency of intraocular injections to be reduced. The purpose of this study was to determine the efficacy of POE containing a precise amount of 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) in an experimental model of filtering surgery in the rabbit. METHODS: Trabeculectomy was performed in pigmented rabbit eyes. An ointmentlike formulation of POE containing 1% wt/wt 5-FU was injected subconjunctivally at the site of surgery, during the procedure. Intraocular pressure (IOP), bleb persistence, and ocular inflammatory reaction were monitored until postoperative day 30. Quantitative analysis of 5-FU was performed in the anterior chamber. Histologic analysis was used to assess the appearance of the filtering fistula and the polymer's biocompatibility. RESULTS: The decrease in IOP from baseline and the persistence of the filtering bleb were significantly more marked in the 5-FU-treated eyes during postoperative days 9 through 28. Corneal toxicity triggered by 5-FU was significantly lower in the group that received 5-FU in POE compared with a 5-FU tamponade. Histopathologic evaluation showed that POE was well tolerated, and no fibrosis occurred in eyes treated with POE containing 5-FU. CONCLUSIONS: In this rabbit model of trabeculectomy, the formulation based on POE and containing a precise amount of 5-FU reduced IOP and prolonged bleb persistence in a way similar to the conventional method of a 5-FU tamponade, while significantly reducing 5-FU toxicity.

Marked increase in incidence for bloodstream infections due to Escherichia coli, a side effect of previous antibiotic therapy in the elderly.

We conducted a survey including 3334 bloodstream infections (BSIs) due to E. coli diagnosed in 2005-2014 at a stable cohort of hospitals. Marked increases in incidence were observed for community-acquired (CA) BSIs in patients aged >75 years, CA-BSIs of digestive origin in patients aged 60-74 years, healthcare-associated BSIs, and BSIs associated with ESBL (extended-spectrum B-lactamase)-producing E. coli (ESBLEc). Using MLST, we studied the genetic diversity of 412 BSI isolates recovered during the 2014 survey: 7 major sequence type complexes (STCs) were revealed in phylogenetic group B2, 3 in group A/B1 and 2 in group D. Among the 31 ESBLEc isolates, 1/3 belonged to STC 131. We searched for possible associations between clonal groups, clinical determinants and characteristics of BSIs: isolates from groups B2 (except STC 131) and D were susceptible to antibiotics and associated with BSIs of urinary origin in patients <60 years. STC 131 and group A/B1 isolates were multi-drug resistant and associated with CA-BSIs of digestive origin in patients aged 60-74 with a recent history of antibiotic treatment. STC 131 isolates were associated with HCA-BSIs in patients with recent/present hospitalization in a long-stay unit. We provide a unique population-based picture of the epidemiology of E. coli BSI. The aging nature of the population led to an increase in the number of cases caused by the B2 and D isolates generally implicated in BSIs. In addition, the association of a trend toward increasing rates of gut colonization with multi drug-resistant isolates revealed by the rise in the incidence of BSIs of digestive origin caused by STC 131 and A/B1 (STCs 10, 23, and 155) isolates, and a significant increase in the frequency of BSIs in elderly patients with recent antibiotic treatment suggested that antibiotic use may have contributed to the growing incidence of BSI.

Study of criteria influencing the success rate of DNA swabs in operational conditions: a contribution to an evidence-based approach to crime scene investigation and triage

DNA is nowadays swabbed routinely to investigate serious and volume crimes, but research remains scarce when it comes to determining the criteria that may impact the success rate of DNA swabs taken on different surfaces and situations. To investigate these criteria in fully operational conditions, DNA analysis results of 4772 swabs taken by the forensic unit of a police department in Western Switzerland over a 2.5-year period (2012-2014) in volume crime cases were considered. A representative and random sample of 1236 swab analyses was extensively examined and codified, describing several criteria such as whether the swabbing was performed at the scene or in the lab, the zone of the scene where it was performed, the kind of object or surface that was swabbed, whether the target specimen was a touch surface or a biological fluid, and whether the swab targeted a single surface or combined different surfaces. The impact of each criterion and of their combination was assessed in regard to the success rate of DNA analysis, measured through the quality of the resulting profile, and whether the profile resulted in a hit in the national database or not. Results show that some situations - such as swabs taken on door and window handles for instance - have a higher success rate than average swabs. Conversely, other situations lead to a marked decrease in the success rate, which should discourage further analyses of such swabs. Results also confirm that targeting a DNA swab on a single surface is preferable to swabbing different surfaces with the intent to aggregate cells deposited by the offender. Such results assist in predicting the chance that the analysis of a swab taken in a given situation will lead to a positive result. The study could therefore inform an evidence-based approach to decision-making at the crime scene (what to swab or not) and at the triage step (what to analyse or not), contributing thus to save resource and increase the efficiency of forensic science efforts.