Single-trial multisensory memories affect later auditory and visual object discrimination.

Multisensory memory traces established via single-trial exposures can impact subsequent visual object recognition. This impact appears to depend on the meaningfulness of the initial multisensory pairing, implying that multisensory exposures establish distinct object representations that are accessible during later unisensory processing. Multisensory contexts may be particularly effective in influencing auditory discrimination, given the purportedly inferior recognition memory in this sensory modality. The possibility of this generalization and the equivalence of effects when memory discrimination was being performed in the visual vs. auditory modality were at the focus of this study. First, we demonstrate that visual object discrimination is affected by the context of prior multisensory encounters, replicating and extending previous findings by controlling for the probability of multisensory contexts during initial as well as repeated object presentations. Second, we provide the first evidence that single-trial multisensory memories impact subsequent auditory object discrimination. Auditory object discrimination was enhanced when initial presentations entailed semantically congruent multisensory pairs and was impaired after semantically incongruent multisensory encounters, compared to sounds that had been encountered only in a unisensory manner. Third, the impact of single-trial multisensory memories upon unisensory object discrimination was greater when the task was performed in the auditory vs. visual modality. Fourth, there was no evidence for correlation between effects of past multisensory experiences on visual and auditory processing, suggestive of largely independent object processing mechanisms between modalities. We discuss these findings in terms of the conceptual short term memory (CSTM) model and predictive coding. Our results suggest differential recruitment and modulation of conceptual memory networks according to the sensory task at hand.

Binary classification of dyslipidemia from the waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index: a comparison of linear, logistic, and CART models.

BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.

Improved accuracy of co-morbidity coding over time after the introduction of ICD-10 administrative data.

BACKGROUND: Co-morbidity information derived from administrative data needs to be validated to allow its regular use. We assessed evolution in the accuracy of coding for Charlson and Elixhauser co-morbidities at three time points over a 5-year period, following the introduction of the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10), coding of hospital discharges.METHODS: Cross-sectional time trend evaluation study of coding accuracy using hospital chart data of 3'499 randomly selected patients who were discharged in 1999, 2001 and 2003, from two teaching and one non-teaching hospital in Switzerland. We measured sensitivity, positive predictive and Kappa values for agreement between administrative data coded with ICD-10 and chart data as the 'reference standard' for recording 36 co-morbidities.RESULTS: For the 17 the Charlson co-morbidities, the sensitivity - median (min-max) - was 36.5% (17.4-64.1) in 1999, 42.5% (22.2-64.6) in 2001 and 42.8% (8.4-75.6) in 2003. For the 29 Elixhauser co-morbidities, the sensitivity was 34.2% (1.9-64.1) in 1999, 38.6% (10.5-66.5) in 2001 and 41.6% (5.1-76.5) in 2003. Between 1999 and 2003, sensitivity estimates increased for 30 co-morbidities and decreased for 6 co-morbidities. The increase in sensitivities was statistically significant for six conditions and the decrease significant for one. Kappa values were increased for 29 co-morbidities and decreased for seven.CONCLUSIONS: Accuracy of administrative data in recording clinical conditions improved slightly between 1999 and 2003. These findings are of relevance to all jurisdictions introducing new coding systems, because they demonstrate a phenomenon of improved administrative data accuracy that may relate to a coding 'learning curve' with the new coding system.

Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene

An important statistical development of the last 30 years has been the advance in regression analysis provided by generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs). Here we introduce a series of papers prepared within the framework of an international workshop entitled: Advances in GLMs/GAMs modeling: from species distribution to environmental management, held in Riederalp, Switzerland, 6-11 August 2001.We first discuss some general uses of statistical models in ecology, as well as provide a short review of several key examples of the use of GLMs and GAMs in ecological modeling efforts. We next present an overview of GLMs and GAMs, and discuss some of their related statistics used for predictor selection, model diagnostics, and evaluation. Included is a discussion of several new approaches applicable to GLMs and GAMs, such as ridge regression, an alternative to stepwise selection of predictors, and methods for the identification of interactions by a combined use of regression trees and several other approaches. We close with an overview of the papers and how we feel they advance our understanding of their application to ecological modeling.

Interleukin-1 receptor antagonist gene (IL-1RN) polymorphism is a predictive factor of clinical pregnancy after IVF.

BACKGROUND: Only 25% of IVF transfer cycles lead to a clinical pregnancy, calling for continued technical progress but also more in depth analysis of patients' individual characteristics. The interleukin-1 (IL-1) system and matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are strongly implicated in embryo implantation. The genes coding for IL-1Ra (gene symbol IL-1RN), IL-1beta, MMP2 and MMP9 bear functional polymorphisms. We analysed the maternal genetic profile at these polymorphic sites in IVF patients, to determine possible correlations with IVF outcome. METHODS: One hundred and sixty women undergoing an IVF cycle were enrolled and a buccal smear was obtained. The presence of IL-1RN variable number of tandem repeats and IL-1B + 3953, MMP2-1306 and MMP9-1562 single nucleotide substitutions were determined. Patients were divided into pregnancy failures (119), biochemical pregnancies (8) and clinical pregnancies (33). RESULTS: There was a 40% decrease in IL-1RN*2 allele frequency (P = 0.024) and a 45% decrease in IL-1RN*2 carrier status in the clinical pregnancy group as compared to the pregnancy failure group (P = 0.017). This decrease was still statistically significant after a multivariate logistic regression analysis. The likelihood of a clinical pregnancy was decreased accordingly in IL-1RN*2 carriers: odds ratio = 0.349, 95% confidence interval = 0.2-0.8, P = 0.017. The IL-1B, MMP2 and MMP9 polymorphisms showed no correlation with IVF outcome. CONCLUSIONS: IL-1RN*2 allele carriage is associated with a poor prognosis of achieving a pregnancy after IVF.

Predicting trabecular bone microdamage initiation and accumulation using a non-linear perfect damage model

Studies evaluating the mechanical behavior of the trabecular microstructure play an important role in our understanding of pathologies such as osteoporosis, and in increasing our understanding of bone fracture and bone adaptation. Understanding of such behavior in bone is important for predicting and providing early treatment of fractures. The objective of this study is to present a numerical model for studying the initiation and accumulation of trabecular bone microdamage in both the pre- and post-yield regions. A sub-region of human vertebral trabecular bone was analyzed using a uniformly loaded anatomically accurate microstructural three-dimensional finite element model. The evolution of trabecular bone microdamage was governed using a non-linear, modulus reduction, perfect damage approach derived from a generalized plasticity stress-strain law. The model introduced in this paper establishes a history of microdamage evolution in both the pre- and post-yield regions

Molecular variation at a candidate gene implicated in the regulation of fire ant social behavior

The fire ant Solenopsis invicta and its close relatives display an important social polymorphism involving differences in colony queen number. Colonies are headed by either a single reproductive queen (monogyne form) or multiple queens (polygyne form). This variation in social organization is associated with variation at the gene Gp-9, with monogyne colonies harboring only B-like allelic variants and polygyne colonies always containing b-like variants as well. We describe naturally occurring variation at Gp-9 in fire ants based on 185 full-length sequences, 136 of which were obtained from S. invicta collected over much of its native range. While there is little overall differentiation between most of the numerous alleles observed, a surprising amount is found in the coding regions of the gene, with such substitutions usually causing amino acid replacements. This elevated coding-region variation may result from a lack of negative selection acting to constrain amino acid replacements over much of the protein, different mutation rates or biases in coding and non-coding sequences, negative selection acting with greater strength on non-coding than coding regions, and/or positive selection acting on the protein. Formal selection analyses provide evidence that the latter force played an important role in the basal b-like lineages coincident with the emergence of polygyny. While our data set reveals considerable paraphyly and polyphyly of S. invicta sequences with respect to those of other fire ant species, the b-like alleles of the socially polymorphic species are monophyletic. An expanded analysis of colonies containing alleles of this clade confirmed the invariant link between their presence and expression of polygyny. Finally, our discovery of several unique alleles bearing various combinations of b-like and B-like codons allows us to conclude that no single b-like residue is completely predictive of polygyne behavior and, thus, potentially causally involved in its expression. Rather, all three typical b-like residues appear to be necessary.

Predicting hematologic toxicity in patients undergoing radioimmunotherapy with 90Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan or 131I-tositumomab.

This study aimed at identifying clinical factors for predicting hematologic toxicity after radioimmunotherapy with (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan or (131)I-tositumomab in clinical practice. Hematologic data were available from 14 non-Hodgkin lymphoma patients treated with (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan and 18 who received (131)I-tositumomab. The percentage baseline at nadir and 4 wk post nadir and the time to nadir were selected as the toxicity indicators for both platelets and neutrophils. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to identify significant predictors (P < 0.05) of each indicator. For both platelets and neutrophils, pooled and separate analyses of (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan and (131)I-tositumomab data yielded the time elapsed since the last chemotherapy as the only significant predictor of the percentage baseline at nadir. The extent of bone marrow involvement was not a significant factor in this study, possibly because of the short time elapsed since the last chemotherapy of the 7 patients with bone marrow involvement. Because both treatments were designed to deliver a comparable bone marrow dose, this factor also was not significant. None of the 14 factors considered was predictive of the time to nadir. The R(2) value for the model predicting percentage baseline at nadir was 0.60 for platelets and 0.40 for neutrophils. This model predicted the platelet and neutrophil toxicity grade to within ±1 for 28 and 30 of the 32 patients, respectively. For the 7 patients predicted with grade I thrombocytopenia, 6 of whom had actual grade I-II, dosing might be increased to improve treatment efficacy. The elapsed time since the last chemotherapy can be used to predict hematologic toxicity and customize the current dosing method in radioimmunotherapy.

Pervasive positive selection on duplicated and nonduplicated vertebrate protein coding genes.

A stringent branch-site codon model was used to detect positive selection in vertebrate evolution. We show that the test is robust to the large evolutionary distances involved. Positive selection was detected in 77% of 884 genes studied. Most positive selection concerns a few sites on a single branch of the phylogenetic tree: Between 0.9% and 4.7% of sites are affected by positive selection depending on the branches. No functional category was overrepresented among genes under positive selection. Surprisingly, whole genome duplication had no effect on the prevalence of positive selection, whether the fish-specific genome duplication or the two rounds at the origin of vertebrates. Thus positive selection has not been limited to a few gene classes, or to specific evolutionary events such as duplication, but has been pervasive during vertebrate evolution.

The ghost of past species occurrence: improving species distribution models for presence-only data

1. Model-based approaches have been used increasingly in conservation biology over recent years. Species presence data used for predictive species distribution modelling are abundant in natural history collections, whereas reliable absence data are sparse, most notably for vagrant species such as butterflies and snakes. As predictive methods such as generalized linear models (GLM) require absence data, various strategies have been proposed to select pseudo-absence data. However, only a few studies exist that compare different approaches to generating these pseudo-absence data. 2. Natural history collection data are usually available for long periods of time (decades or even centuries), thus allowing historical considerations. However, this historical dimension has rarely been assessed in studies of species distribution, although there is great potential for understanding current patterns, i.e. the past is the key to the present. 3. We used GLM to model the distributions of three 'target' butterfly species, Melitaea didyma, Coenonympha tullia and Maculinea teleius, in Switzerland. We developed and compared four strategies for defining pools of pseudo-absence data and applied them to natural history collection data from the last 10, 30 and 100 years. Pools included: (i) sites without target species records; (ii) sites where butterfly species other than the target species were present; (iii) sites without butterfly species but with habitat characteristics similar to those required by the target species; and (iv) a combination of the second and third strategies. Models were evaluated and compared by the total deviance explained, the maximized Kappa and the area under the curve (AUC). 4. Among the four strategies, model performance was best for strategy 3. Contrary to expectations, strategy 2 resulted in even lower model performance compared with models with pseudo-absence data simulated totally at random (strategy 1). 5. Independent of the strategy model, performance was enhanced when sites with historical species presence data were not considered as pseudo-absence data. Therefore, the combination of strategy 3 with species records from the last 100 years achieved the highest model performance. 6. Synthesis and applications. The protection of suitable habitat for species survival or reintroduction in rapidly changing landscapes is a high priority among conservationists. Model-based approaches offer planning authorities the possibility of delimiting priority areas for species detection or habitat protection. The performance of these models can be enhanced by fitting them with pseudo-absence data relying on large archives of natural history collection species presence data rather than using randomly sampled pseudo-absence data.

Personality traits and behavioral and psychological symptoms in patients at an early stage of Alzheimer's disease.

OBJECTIVE: The origins of behavioral and psychological symptoms (BPS) in Alzheimer's disease (AD) are still poorly understood. Focusing on individual personality structure, we explored the relationship between premorbid personality and its changes over 5 years, and BPS in patients at an early stage of AD. METHOD: A total of 54 patients at an early stage of AD according to ICD-10 and NINCDS-ADRDA criteria and 64 control subjects were included. Family members filled in the Neuropsychiatric Inventory Questionnaire to evaluate their proxies' current BPS and the NEO Personality Inventory Revised twice, the first time to evaluate the participants' current personality and the second time to assess personality traits as they were remembered to be 5 years earlier. RESULTS: Behavioral and psychological symptoms, in particular apathy, depression, anxiety, and agitation, are frequent occurrences in early stage AD. Premorbid personality differed between AD patients and normal control, but it was not predictive of BPS in patients with AD. Personality traits clearly change in the course of beginning AD, and this change seems to develop in parallel with BPS as early signs of AD. CONCLUSIONS: Premorbid personality was not associated with BPS in early stage of AD, although complex and non-linear relationships between the two are not excluded. However, both personality and behavioral changes occur early in the course of AD, and recognizing them as possible, early warning signs of neurodegeneration may prove to be a key factor for early detection and intervention. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Is intra-operative blood flow predictive for early failure of radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula?

BACKGROUND: For over 50 years, radiocephalic wrist arteriovenous fistulae (RCAVF) have been the primary and best vascular access for haemodialysis. Nevertheless, early failure due to thrombosis or non-maturation is a major complication resulting in their abandonment. This prospective study was designed to investigate the predictive value of intra-operative blood flow on early failure of primary RCAVF before the first effective dialysis. METHODS: We enrolled patients undergoing creation of primary RCAVF for haemodialysis based on the pre-operative ultrasound vascular mapping discussed in a multidisciplinary approach. Intra-operative blood flow measurement was systematically performed once the anastomosis had been completed using a transit-time ultrasonic flowmeter. During the follow-up, blood flow was estimated by colour flow ultrasound at various intervals. Any events related to the RCAVF were recorded. RESULTS: Autogenous RCAVFs (n = 58) in 58 patients were constructed and followed up for an average of 30 days. Thrombosis and non-maturation occurred in eight (14%) and four (7%) patients, respectively. The intra-operative blood flow in functioning RCAVFs was significantly higher compared to non-functioning RCAVFs (230 vs 98 mL/min; P = 0.007), as well as 1 week (753 vs 228 mL/min; P = 0.0008) and 4 weeks (915 vs 245 mL/min, P < 0.0001) later. Blood flow volume measurements with a cut-off value of 120 mL/min had a sensitivity of 67%, specificity of 75% and positive predictive value of 91%. CONCLUSIONS: Blood flow <120 mL has a good predictive value for early failure in RCAVF. During the procedure, this cut-off value may be used to select appropriately which RCAVF should be investigated in the operation theatre in order to correct in real time any abnormality.

Plasma Level of Mmp-9 as Predictive Factor for Response and Progression Free Survival in Patients Treated with Bevacizumab (Bev) and Pegylated Liposomal Doxorubicin (Pld): Sakk 24/06

Background: There is currently no identified marker predicting benefit from Bev in patients with breast cancer (pts). We monitored prospectively 6 angiogenesis-related factors in the blood of advanced stage pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD in a phase II trial of the Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research, SAKK.Methods: Pts received PLD (20 mg/m2) and Bev (10 mg/kg) every 2 weeks for a maximum of 12 administrations, followed by Bev monotherapy until progression or severe toxicity. Blood samples were collected at baseline, during treatment and at treatment discontinuation. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (Quantikine, R&DSystems and Reliatech) were used to measure vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), placental growth factor (PlGF), matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9) and soluble VEGF receptors -1, -2 and -3. The natural log-transformed (ln) data for each factor was analyzed by analysis of variance (ANOVA) model to investigate differences between the mean values of the subgroups of interest (where a = 0.05), based on the best tumor response by RECIST.Results: 132 samples were collected in 41 pts. The mean of baseline ln MMP-9 levels was significantly lower in pts with tumor progression than those with tumor response (p=0.0202, log fold change=0.8786) or disease control (p=0.0035, log fold change=0.8427). Higher MMP-9 level was a significant predictor of superior progression free survival (PFS): p=0.0417, hazard ratio=0.574, 95% CI=0.336-0.979. In a multivariate cox proportional hazards model, containing performance status, disease free interval, number of tumor sites, visceral involvement and prior adjuvant chemotherapy, using stepwise regression baseline MMP-9 was still a statistically 117P Table 1. SOLTI-0701* AC01B07* NU07B1* SOR+CAP N=20 PL+CAP N=33 SOR+ GEM/CAP N=23 PL+ GEM/CAP N=27 SOR+PAC N=48 PL+PAC N=46 Baseline characteristics Age, median (range), y 49 (32-72) 53 (30-78 54 (32-69) 57 (31-82) 50 (27-80) 52 (23-74) AJCC stage, n (%) IIIB/IIIC 3 (15) 6 (18) 0 (0) 3 (11) 8 (17) 9 (20) IV 17 (85) 27 (82) 23 (100) 24 (89) 40 (83) 37 (80) Metastatic site, n (%) Non-visceral 3 (15) 6 (18) 7 (30) 6 (22) 9 (19) 17 (37) Visceral 17 (85) 27 (82) 16 (70) 21 (78) 39 (81) 29 (63) Prior metastatic chemo, n (%) 8 (40) 15 (45) 21 (91) 25 (93) - - Efficacy PFS, median, mo 4.3 2.5 3.1 2.6 5.6 5.5 HR (95% CI)_ 0.60 (0.31, 1.14) 0.57 (0.30, 1.09) 0.86 (0.50, 1.45) 1-sided P value_ 0.055 0.044 0.281 Overall survival, median, mo 17.5 16.1 Pending 14.7 18.2 HR (95% CI)_ 0.98 (0.50, 1.89) 1.11 (0.64, 1.94) 1-sided P value_ 0.476 0.352 Safety N=20 N=33 N=22 N=27 N=46 N=46 Tx-emergent Grade 3/4, n (%) 15 (75) 16 (48) 20 (91) 17 (63) 36 (78) 16 (35) Grade 3§ hand-foot skin reaction/ syndrome 8 (40) 5 (15) 8 (36) 0 (0) 14 (30) 2 (4) *Efficacy results based on intent-to-treat population and safety results based on safety population (pts who received study drug[s]); _Cox regression within each subgroup; _log-rank test within each subgroup; §maximum toxicity grade for hand-foot skin reaction/syndrome; AJCC, American Joint Committee on Cancer mittedabstractsª The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com Downloaded from annonc.oxfordjournals.org at Bibliotheque Cantonale et Universitaire on June 6, 2011 significant factor (p=0.0266). The results of the other measured factors were presented elsewhere.Conclusions: Higher levels of MMP-9 could predict tumor response and superior PFSin pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD. These exploratory results justify further investigations of MMP-9 in pts treated with Bev combinations in order to assess its role as a prognostic and predictive factor.Disclosure: K. Zaman: Participation in advisory board of Roche; partial sponsoring ofthe study by Roche (the main sponsor was the Swiss Federation against Cancer (Oncosuisse)). B. Thu¨rlimann: stock of Roche; Research grants from Roche. R. vonMoos: Participant of Advisory Board and Speaker honoraria