Interleukin-28B polymorphisms, IP-10, viral load and age predict the outcome of therapy in genotype 1 hepatitis C virus under real-life conditions

Background and Aims: IL28B polymorphisms, interferon (IFN)-gamma inducible protein-10 (IP-10) levels and the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) score have been reported to predict rapid (RVR) and sustained (SVR) virological response in chronic hepatitis C (CHC), but it is not known whether these factors represent independent, clinically useful predictors. The aim of the study was to assess factors (including IL28B polymorphisms, IP-10 levels and HOMA-IR score) independently predicting response to therapy in CHC under real life conditions.Methods: Multivariate analysis of factors predicting RVR and SVR in 280 consecutive, treatment-naive CHC patients treated with pegylated IFN alpha and ribavirin in a prospective multicenter study.Results: Independent predictors of RVR were HCV RNA < 400,000 IU/ml (OR11.37; 95% CI 3.03-42.6), rs12980275 AA (vs. AG/GG) (OR 7.09; 1.97-25.56) and IP-10 (OR 0.04; 0.003-0.56) in HCV genotype 1 patients and lower baseline γ-glutamyl-transferase levels (OR = 0.02; 0.0009-0.31) in HCV genotype 3 patients. Independent predictors of SVR were rs12980275 AA (OR 9.68; 3.44-27.18), age < 40 yrs (OR = 4.79; 1.50-15.34) and HCV RNA < 400,000 IU/ml (OR 2.74; 1.03-7.27) in HCV genotype 1 patients and rs12980275 AA (OR = 6.26; 1.98-19.74) and age < 40 yrs (OR 5.37; 1.54-18.75) in the 88 HCV genotype 1 patients without a RVR. RVR was by itself predictive of SVR in HCV genotype 1 patients (32 of 33, 97%; OR 33.0; 4.06-268.32) and the only independent predictor of SVR in HCV genotype 2 (OR 9.0, 1.72-46.99; p=0.009) or 3 patients (OR 7.8, 1.43-42.67; p=0.01).Conclusions: In HCV genotype 1 patients, IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA load and IP-10 independently predict RVR. The combination of IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA level and age may yield more accurate pretreatment prediction of SVR. HOMA-IR score is not associated with viral response.

Prediction of myocardial infarction size using the SYNTAX score in patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention for acute ST- segment elevation myocardial infarction

Objectives The relevance of the SYNTAX score for the particular case of patients with acute ST- segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI)  has previously only been studied in the setting of post hoc analysis of large prospective randomized clinical trials. A "real-life" population approach has never been explored before. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the SYNTAX score for the prediction of the myocardial infarction size, estimated by the creatin-kinase (CK) peak value, using the SYNTAX score in patients treated with primary coronary intervention for acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Methods The primary endpoint of the study was myocardial infarction size as measured by the CK peak value. The SYNTAX score was calculated retrospectively in 253 consecutive patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) in a large tertiary referral center in Switzerland, between January 2009 and June 2010. Linear regression analysis was performed to compare myocardial infarction size with the SYNTAX score. This same endpoint was then stratified according to SYNTAX score tertiles: low <22 (n=178), intermediate [22-32] (n=60), and high >=33 (n=15). Results There were no significant differences in terms of clinical characteristics between the three groups. When stratified according to the SYNTAX score tertiles, average CK peak values of 1985 (low<22), 3336 (intermediate [22-32]) and 3684 (high>=33) were obtained with a p-value <0.0001. Bartlett's test for equal variances between the three groups was 9.999 (p-value <0.0067). A moderate Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (r=0.4074) with a high statistical significance level (p-value <0.0001) was found. The coefficient of determination (R^2=0.1660) showed that approximately 17% of the variation of CK peak value (myocardial infarction size) could be explained by the SYNTAX score, i.e. by the coronary disease complexity. Conclusion In an all-comers population, the SYNTAX score is an additional tool in predicting myocardial infarction size in patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). The stratification of patients in different risk groups according to SYNTAX enables to identify a high-risk population that may warrant particular patient care.

Implementation study of a clinical prediction score to rule out cardiogenic chest pain in community: Cluster randomized trial

1.1 Fundamentals Chest pain is a common complaint in primary care patients (1 to 3% of all consultations) (1) and its aetiology can be miscellaneous, from harmless to potentially life threatening conditions. In primary care practice, the most prevalent aetiologies are: chest wall syndrome (43%), coronary heart disease (12%) and anxiety (7%) (2). In up to 20% of cases, potentially serious conditions as cardiac, respiratory or neoplasic diseases underlie chest pain. In this context, a large number of laboratory tests are run (42%) and over 16% of patients are referred to a specialist or hospitalized (2).¦A cardiovascular origin to chest pain can threaten patient's life and investigations run to exclude a serious condition can be expensive and involve a large number of exams or referral to specialist -­‐ often without real clinical need. In emergency settings, up to 80% of chest pains in patients are due to cardiovascular events (3) and scoring methods have been developed to identify conditions such as coronary heart disease (HD) quickly and efficiently (4-­‐6). In primary care, a cardiovascular origin is present in only about 12% of patients with chest pain (2) and general practitioners (GPs) need to exclude as safely as possible a potential serious condition underlying chest pain. A simple clinical prediction rule (CPR) like those available in emergency settings may therefore help GPs and spare time and extra investigations in ruling out CHD in primary care patients. Such a tool may also help GPs reassure patients with more common origin to chest pain.

Prediction of postnatal outcome in fetuses with pulmonary hypoplasia by fetal-MRI: Comparison between lung volumetry and pulmonary signal intensity values

Purpose: Pulmonary hypoplasia is a determinant parameter for extra-uterine life. In the last years, MRI appears as a complement to US in order to evaluate the degree of pulmonary hypoplasia in foetuses with congenital anomalies, by using different methods - fetal lung volumetry (FLV), lung-to-liver signal intensity ratio (LLSIR)-. But until now, information about the correlation between the MRI prediction and the real postnatal outcome is limited. Methods and materials: We retrospectively reviewed the fetal MRI performed at our Institution in the last 8 years and selected the cases with suspicion of fetal pulmonary hypoplasia (n = 30). The pulmonary volumetry data of these foetuses were collected and the lung-to-liver signal intensity ratio (LLSIR) measures performed. These data were compared with those obtained from a control group of 25 foetuses considered as normal at MRI. The data of the study group were also correlated with the autopsy records or the post-natal clinical information of the patients. Results: As expected, the control group showed higher FLV and LLSIR values than the problem group at all gestational ages. Higher values of FLV and LLSIR were associated with a better post-natal outcome. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and accuracy for the relative LLSIR and the relative FLV showed no significant differences. Conclusion: Our data show that not only the FLV but also the relative LLSIR inform about the degree of fetal lung development. This information may help to predict the fetal outcome and to evaluate the need for neonatal intensive care.

Correlates of frailty, prediction of functional decline and preventative approaches - selected results from the lausanne cohort 65+ (lc65+) study (Switzerland) (Lausanne) and the longitudinal urban cohort ageing study (Lucas) (Germany)

Overall introduction.- Longitudinal studies have been designed to investigate prospectively, from their beginning, the pathway leading from health to frailty and to disability. Knowledge about determinants of healthy ageing and health behaviour (resources) as well as risks of functional decline is required to propose appropriate preventative interventions. The functional status in older people is important considering clinical outcome in general, healthcare need and mortality. Part I.- Results and interventions from lucas (longitudinal urban cohort ageing study). Authors.- J. Anders, U. Dapp, L. Neumann, F. Pröfener, C. Minder, S. Golgert, A. Daubmann, K. Wegscheider,. W. von Renteln-Kruse Methods.- The LUCAS core project is a longitudinal cohort of urban community-dwelling people 60 years and older, recruited in 2000/2001. Further LUCAS projects are cross-sectional comparative and interventional studies (RCT). Results.- The emphasis will be on geriatric medical care in a population-based approach, discussing different forms of access, too. (Dapp et al. BMC Geriatrics 2012, 12:35; http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2318/12/35): - longitudinal data from the LUCAS urban cohort (n = 3.326) will be presented covering 10 years of observation, including the prediction of functional decline, need of nursing care, and mortality by using a self-filling screening tool; - interventions to prevent functional decline do focus on first (pre-clinical) signs of pre-frailty before entering the frailty-cascade ("Active Health Promotion in Old Age", "geriatric mobility centre") or disability ("home visits"). Conclusions.- The LUCAS research consortium was established to study particular aspects of functional competence, its changes with ageing, to detect pre-clinical signs of functional decline, and to address questions on how to maintain functional competence and to prevent adverse outcome in different settings. The multidimensional data base allows the exploration of several further questions. Gait performance was exmined by GAITRite®-System. Supported by the Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF Funding No. 01ET1002A). Part II.- Selected results from the lausanne cohort 65+ (Lc65 + ) Study (Switzerland). Authors.- Prof Santos-Eggimann Brigitte, Dr Seematter-Bagnoud Laurence, Prof Büla Christophe, Dr Rochat Stéphane. Methods.- The Lc65+ cohort was launched in 2004 with the random selection of 3054 eligible individuals aged 65 to 70 (birth year 1934-1938) in the non-institutionalized population of Lausanne (Switzerland). Results.- Information is collected about life course social and health-related events, socio-economics, medical and psychosocial dimensions, lifestyle habits, limitations in activities of daily living, mobility impairments, and falls. Gait performance are objectively measured using body-fixed sensors. Frailty is assessed using Fried's frailty phenotype. Follow-up consists in annual self-completed questionnaires, as well as physical examination and physical and mental performance tests every three years. - Lausanne cohort 65+ (Lc65 + ): design and longitudinal outcomes. The baseline data collection was completed among 1422 participants in 2004-2005 through self-completed questionnaires, face-to-face interviews, physical examination and tests of mental and physical performances. Information about institutionalization, self-reported health services utilization, and death is also assessed. An additional random sample (n = 1525) of 65-70 years old subjects was recruited in 2009 (birth year 1939-1943). - lecture no 4: alcohol intake and gait parameters: prevalent and longitudinal association in the Lc65+ study. The association between alcohol intake and gait performance was investigated.

Ruling out coronary artery disease in primary care: development and validation of a simple prediction rule.

BACKGROUND: Chest pain can be caused by various conditions, with life-threatening cardiac disease being of greatest concern. Prediction scores to rule out coronary artery disease have been developed for use in emergency settings. We developed and validated a simple prediction rule for use in primary care. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional diagnostic study in 74 primary care practices in Germany. Primary care physicians recruited all consecutive patients who presented with chest pain (n = 1249) and recorded symptoms and findings for each patient (derivation cohort). An independent expert panel reviewed follow-up data obtained at six weeks and six months on symptoms, investigations, hospital admissions and medications to determine the presence or absence of coronary artery disease. Adjusted odds ratios of relevant variables were used to develop a prediction rule. We calculated measures of diagnostic accuracy for different cut-off values for the prediction scores using data derived from another prospective primary care study (validation cohort). RESULTS: The prediction rule contained five determinants (age/sex, known vascular disease, patient assumes pain is of cardiac origin, pain is worse during exercise, and pain is not reproducible by palpation), with the score ranging from 0 to 5 points. The area under the curve (receiver operating characteristic curve) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83-0.91) for the derivation cohort and 0.90 (95% CI 0.87-0.93) for the validation cohort. The best overall discrimination was with a cut-off value of 3 (positive result 3-5 points; negative result <or= 2 points), which had a sensitivity of 87.1% (95% CI 79.9%-94.2%) and a specificity of 80.8% (77.6%-83.9%). INTERPRETATION: The prediction rule for coronary artery disease in primary care proved to be robust in the validation cohort. It can help to rule out coronary artery disease in patients presenting with chest pain in primary care.

Midregional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide and procalcitonin improve survival prediction in VAP.

Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) affects mortality, morbidity and cost of critical care. Reliable risk estimation might improve end-of-life decisions, resource allocation and outcome. Several scoring systems for survival prediction have been established and optimised over the last decades. Recently, new biomarkers have gained interest in the prognostic field. We assessed whether midregional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP) and procalcitonin (PCT) improve the predictive value of the Simplified Acute Physiologic Score (SAPS) II and Sequential Related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) in VAP. Specified end-points of a prospective multinational trial including 101 patients with VAP were analysed. Death &lt;28 days after VAP onset was the primary end-point. MR-proANP and PCT were elevated at the onset of VAP in nonsurvivors compared with survivors (p = 0.003 and p = 0.017, respectively) and their slope of decline differed significantly (p = 0.018 and p = 0.039, respectively). Patients with the highest MR-proANP quartile at VAP onset were at increased risk for death (log rank p = 0.013). In a logistic regression model, MR-proANP was identified as the best predictor of survival. Adding MR-proANP and PCT to SAPS II and SOFA improved their predictive properties (area under the curve 0.895 and 0.880). We conclude that the combination of two biomarkers, MR-proANP and PCT, improve survival prediction of clinical severity scores in VAP.

Stressful life events and neuroticism as predictors of late-life versus early-life depression.

BACKGROUND: The occurrence of depression in younger adults is related to the combination of long-standing factors such as personality traits (neuroticism) and more acute factors such as the subjective impact of stressful life events. Whether an increase in physical illnesses changes these associations in old age depression remains a matter of debate. METHODS: We compared 79 outpatients with major depression and 102 never-depressed controls; subjects included both young (mean age: 35 years) and older (mean age: 70 years) adults. Assessments included the Social Readjustment Rating Scale, NEO Personality Inventory and Cumulative Illness Rating Scale. Logistic regression models analyzed the association between depression and subjective impact of stressful life events while controlling for neuroticism and physical illness. RESULTS: Patients and controls experienced the same number of stressful life events in the past 12 months. However, in contrast to the controls, patients associated the events with a subjective negative emotional impact. Negative stress impact and levels of neuroticism, but not physical illness, significantly predicted depression in young age. In old age, negative stress impact was weakly associated with depression. In this age group, depressive illness was also determined by physical illness burden and neuroticism. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that the subjective impact of life stressors, although rated as of the same magnitude, plays a less important role in accounting for depression in older age compared to young age. They also indicate an increasing weight of physical illness burden in the prediction of depression occurrence in old age.

Outcome Prediction of Consciousness Disorders in the Acute Stage Based on a Complementary Motor Behavioural Tool.

INTRODUCTION: Attaining an accurate diagnosis in the acute phase for severely brain-damaged patients presenting Disorders of Consciousness (DOC) is crucial for prognostic validity; such a diagnosis determines further medical management, in terms of therapeutic choices and end-of-life decisions. However, DOC evaluation based on validated scales, such as the Revised Coma Recovery Scale (CRS-R), can lead to an underestimation of consciousness and to frequent misdiagnoses particularly in cases of cognitive motor dissociation due to other aetiologies. The purpose of this study is to determine the clinical signs that lead to a more accurate consciousness assessment allowing more reliable outcome prediction. METHODS: From the Unit of Acute Neurorehabilitation (University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland) between 2011 and 2014, we enrolled 33 DOC patients with a DOC diagnosis according to the CRS-R that had been established within 28 days of brain damage. The first CRS-R assessment established the initial diagnosis of Unresponsive Wakefulness Syndrome (UWS) in 20 patients and a Minimally Consciousness State (MCS) in the remaining13 patients. We clinically evaluated the patients over time using the CRS-R scale and concurrently from the beginning with complementary clinical items of a new observational Motor Behaviour Tool (MBT). Primary endpoint was outcome at unit discharge distinguishing two main classes of patients (DOC patients having emerged from DOC and those remaining in DOC) and 6 subclasses detailing the outcome of UWS and MCS patients, respectively. Based on CRS-R and MBT scores assessed separately and jointly, statistical testing was performed in the acute phase using a non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test; longitudinal CRS-R data were modelled with a Generalized Linear Model. RESULTS: Fifty-five per cent of the UWS patients and 77% of the MCS patients had emerged from DOC. First, statistical prediction of the first CRS-R scores did not permit outcome differentiation between classes; longitudinal regression modelling of the CRS-R data identified distinct outcome evolution, but not earlier than 19 days. Second, the MBT yielded a significant outcome predictability in the acute phase (p<0.02, sensitivity>0.81). Third, a statistical comparison of the CRS-R subscales weighted by MBT became significantly predictive for DOC outcome (p<0.02). DISCUSSION: The association of MBT and CRS-R scoring improves significantly the evaluation of consciousness and the predictability of outcome in the acute phase. Subtle motor behaviour assessment provides accurate insight into the amount and the content of consciousness even in the case of cognitive motor dissociation.

Why are offspring born larger when it is colder? Phenotypic plasticity for offspring size in the cladoceran Simocephalus vetulus (Müller)

It has been predicted on theorerical grounds (Sibly & Calow, 1983; Taylor & Williams, 1984) that optimal offspring size should be highly sensitive to juvenile growth and survival rates. To test such models, genetically-identical individuals of Simicephalus vetulus were reared at different temperatures and monitored for offspring size and juvenile growth rate. As adult size correlates negatively with temperature, an analysis of covariance was performed to separate the effects of temperature and maternal size. The result is that offspring size indeed correlates negatively with juvenile growth rate. Comparisons are made with field observation of several authors on seasonal variation of offspring size and alternative explanations are discussed. It is concluded that present experiments support the prediction of the theoretical models.

Risk prediction of prevalent diabetes in a Swiss population using a weighted genetic score--the CoLaus Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Several susceptibility genes for type 2 diabetes have been discovered recently. Individually, these genes increase the disease risk only minimally. The goals of the present study were to determine, at the population level, the risk of diabetes in individuals who carry risk alleles within several susceptibility genes for the disease and the added value of this genetic information over the clinical predictors. METHODS: We constructed an additive genetic score using the most replicated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within 15 type 2 diabetes-susceptibility genes, weighting each SNP with its reported effect. We tested this score in the extensively phenotyped population-based cross-sectional CoLaus Study in Lausanne, Switzerland (n = 5,360), involving 356 diabetic individuals. RESULTS: The clinical predictors of prevalent diabetes were age, BMI, family history of diabetes, WHR, and triacylglycerol/HDL-cholesterol ratio. After adjustment for these variables, the risk of diabetes was 2.7 (95% CI 1.8-4.0, p = 0.000006) for individuals with a genetic score within the top quintile, compared with the bottom quintile. Adding the genetic score to the clinical covariates improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve slightly (from 0.86 to 0.87), yet significantly (p = 0.002). BMI was similar in these two extreme quintiles. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In this population, a simple weighted 15 SNP-based genetic score provides additional information over clinical predictors of prevalent diabetes. At this stage, however, the clinical benefit of this genetic information is limited.

Using life strategies to explore the vulnerability of ecosystem services to invasion by alien plants

Invasive plants can have different effects of ecosystem functioning and on the provision of ecosystem services, from strongly deleterious impacts to positive effects. The nature and intensity of such effects will depend on the service and ecosystem being considered, but also on features of life strategies of invaders that influence their invasiveness as well as their influence of key processes of receiving ecosystems. To address the combined effect of these various factors we developed a robust and efficient methodological framework that allows to identify areas of possible conflict between ecosystem services and alien invasive plants, considering interactions between landscape invasibility and species invasiveness. Our framework combines the statistical robustness of multi-model inference, efficient techniques to map ecosystem services, and life strategies as a functional link between invasion, functional changes and potential provision of services by invaded ecosystems. The framework was applied to a test region in Portugal, for which we could successfully predict the current patterns of plant invasion, of ecosystem service provision, and finally of probable conflict (expressing concern for negative impacts, and value for positive impacts on services) between alien species richness (total and per plant life strategy) and the potential provision of selected services. Potential conflicts were identified for all combinations of plant strategy and ecosystem service, with an emphasis for those concerning conflicts with carbon sequestration, water regulation and wood production. Lower levels of conflict were obtained between invasive plant strategies and the habitat for biodiversity supporting service. The added value of the proposed framework in the context of landscape management and planning is discussed in perspective of anticipation of conflicts, mitigation of negative impacts, and potentiation of positive effects of plant invasions on ecosystems and their services.

Pharmacokinetics and safety of panobacumab: specific adjunctive immunotherapy in critical patients with nosocomial Pseudomonas aeruginosa O11 pneumonia.

Objectives Nosocomial Pseudomonas aeruginosa pneumonia remains a major concern in critically ill patients. We explored the potential impact of microorganism-targeted adjunctive immunotherapy in such patients. Patients and methods This multicentre, open pilot Phase 2a clinical trial (NCT00851435) prospectively evaluated the safety, pharmacokinetics and potential efficacy of three doses of 1.2 mg/kg panobacumab, a fully human monoclonal anti-lipopolysaccharide IgM, given every 72 h in 18 patients developing nosocomial P. aeruginosa (serotype O11) pneumonia. Results Seventeen out of 18 patients were included in the pharmacokinetic analysis. In 13 patients receiving three doses, the maximal concentration after the third infusion was 33.9 ± 8.0 μg/mL, total area under the serum concentration-time curve was 5397 ± 1993 μg h/mL and elimination half-life was 102.3 ± 47.8 h. Panobacumab was well tolerated, induced no immunogenicity and was detected in respiratory samples. In contrast to Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) prediction, all 13 patients receiving three doses survived, with a mean clinical resolution in 9.0 ± 2.7 days. Two patients suffered a recurrence at days 17 and 20. Conclusions These data suggest that panobacumab is safe, with a pharmacokinetic profile similar to that in healthy volunteers. It was associated with high clinical cure and survival rates in patients developing nosocomial P. aeruginosa O11 pneumonia. We concluded that these promising results warrant further trials.

Validation of the IMPACT-III quality of life questionnaire in Swiss children with inflammatory bowel disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) frequently manifests during childhood and adolescence. For providing and understanding a comprehensive picture of a patients' health status, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) instruments are an essential complement to clinical symptoms and functional limitations. Currently, the IMPACT-III questionnaire is one of the most frequently used disease-specific HRQoL instrument among patients with IBD. However, there is a lack of studies examining the validation and reliability of this instrument. METHODS: 146 paediatric IBD patients from the multicenter Swiss IBD paediatric cohort study database were included in the study. Medical and laboratory data were extracted from the hospital records. HRQoL data were assessed by means of standardized questionnaires filled out by the patients in a face-to-face interview. RESULTS: The original six IMPACT-III domain scales could not be replicated in the current sample. A principal component analysis with the extraction of four factor scores revealed the most robust solution. The four factors indicated good internal reliability (Cronbach's alpha=.64-.86), good concurrent validity measured by correlations with the generic KIDSCREEN-27 scales and excellent discriminant validity for the dimension of physical functioning measured by HRQoL differences for active and inactive severity groups (p<.001, d=1.04). CONCLUSIONS: This study with Swiss children with IBD indicates good validity and reliability for the IMPACT-III questionnaire. However, our findings suggest a slightly different factor structure than originally proposed. The IMPACT-III questionnaire can be recommended for its use in clinical practice. The factor structure should be further examined in other samples.