Age-period-cohort analysis of oral cancer mortality in Europe: the end of an epidemic?

Over the last decade, mortality from oral and pharyngeal cancer has been declining in most European countries, but it had been increasing substantially in Hungary, Slovakia and a few other countries of central Europe, reaching rates comparable to those of lung cancer in several western European countries in males. To update trends in oral cancer mortality and further analyse the recent epidemic in central Europe, official death certifications for oral and pharyngeal cancer for 37 European countries were derived over the period 1970-2007, and an age-period-cohort model was fitted for selected countries. Male oral cancer mortality continued to decline in most European countries, including the Russian Federation, and, more importantly, it also started to decline in some of the countries with the highest male rates, i.e. Hungary and Slovakia; persisting rises were, however, observed in Belarus, Bulgaria and Romania. Oral cancer mortality rates for women were lower than in men and showed no appreciable trend over recent periods in the EU overall. Estimates from the age-period-cohort analysis for most selected countries showed a fall in effects for the cohorts born after the 1950s. For the period effect displayed a rise for the earlier periods, an inversion in the 1990s and a continuous fall up to the last studied period. Only some former non-market economy countries, like Romania, Ukraine and Lithuania, had rising cohort effect trends up to most recent generations. The major finding of this updated analysis of oral cancer mortality is the leveling of the epidemic for men in most European countries, including Hungary and other central European countries, where mortality from this cancer was exceedingly high. These trends essentially reflect the changes in alcohol and tobacco consumption in various populations.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2011.

Background: Mortality figures become available after some years.Materials and methods: Using the World Health Organization mortality and population data, we estimated numbers of deaths in 2011 from all cancers and selected sites for the European Union (EU) and six major countries, by fitting a joinpoint model to 5-year age-specific numbers of deaths. Age-standardized rates were computed using EUROSTAT population estimates.Results: The predicted number of cancer deaths in the EU in 2011 was 1 281 436, with standardized rates of 143/100 000 men and 85/100 000 women. Poland had the highest rates, with smaller falls over recent periods. Declines in mortality for major sites including stomach, colorectum, breast, uterus, prostate and leukemias, plus male lung cancer, will continue until 2011, and a trend reversal or a leveling off is predicted where upward trends were previously observed. Female lung cancer rates are increasing in all major EU countries except the UK, where it is the first cause of cancer death, as now in Poland. The increasing pancreatic cancer trends in women observed up to 2004 have likely leveled off.Conclusions: Despite falls in rates, absolute numbers of cancer deaths are stable in Europe. The gap between Western and former nonmarket economy countries will likely persist.

Trends in mortality from urologic cancers in Europe, 1970-2008.

BACKGROUND: In recent decades, there have been substantial changes in mortality from urologic cancers in Europe. OBJECTIVE: To provide updated information, we analyzed trends in mortality from cancer of the prostate, testis, bladder, and kidney in Europe from 1970 to 2008. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We derived data for 33 European countries from the World Health Organization database. MEASUREMENTS: We computed world-standardized mortality rates and used joinpoint regression to identify significant changes in trends. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Mortality from prostate cancer has leveled off since the 1990s in countries of western and northern Europe, particularly over the last few years while it was still rising in Bulgaria, Romania, and Russia. In the European Union (EU), it reached a peak in 1995 at 15.0 per 100 000 men and declined to 12.5 per 100 000 in 2006. Mortality from testicular cancer has steadily declined in most countries in western and northern Europe since the 1970s. The declines were later and appreciably lower in central/eastern Europe. In EU, rates declined from 0.75 in 1980 to 0.32 per 100 000 men in 2006, with stronger declines up to the late 1990s and an apparent leveling off in rates thereafter. Over the last 15 years, mortality from bladder cancer has declined in most European countries in both sexes. The major exceptions were Bulgaria, Poland, and Romania. In the EU, bladder cancer mortality was stable until 1992 and declined thereafter from 7.3 to 5.5 per 100 000 men and from 1.5 to 1.2 per 100 000 women in 2006. Mortality from kidney cancer increased throughout Europe until the early 1990s and leveled off thereafter in many countries, except in a few central and eastern ones. Between 1994 and 2006, rates declined from 4.9 to 4.3 per 100 000 in EU men and from 2.1 to 1.8 per 100 000 in EU women. CONCLUSIONS: Over the last two decades, trends in urologic cancer mortality were favorable in Europe, with the exception of a few central and eastern countries.

Electromyographic, cerebral, and muscle hemodynamic responses during intermittent, isometric contractions of the biceps brachii at three submaximal intensities.

This study examined the electromyographic, cerebral and muscle hemodynamic responses during intermittent isometric contractions of biceps brachii at 20, 40, and 60% of maximal voluntary contraction (MVC). Eleven volunteers completed 2 min of intermittent isometric contractions (12/min) at an elbow angle of 90° interspersed with 3 min rest between intensities in systematic order. Surface electromyography (EMG) was recorded from the right biceps brachii and near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was used to simultaneously measure left prefrontal and right biceps brachii oxyhemoglobin (HbO2), deoxyhemoglobin (HHb), and total hemoglobin (Hbtot). Transcranial Doppler ultrasound was used to measure middle cerebral artery velocity (MCAv) bilaterally. Finger photoplethysmography was used to record beat-to-beat blood pressure and heart rate. EMG increased with force output from 20 to 60% MVC (P < 0.05). Cerebral HbO2 and Hbtot increased while HHb decreased during contractions with differences observed between 60% vs. 40% and 20% MVC (P < 0.05). Muscle HbO2 decreased while HHb increased during contractions with differences being observed among intensities (P < 0.05). Muscle Hbtot increased from rest at 20% MVC (P < 0.05), while no further change was observed at 40 and 60% MVC (P > 0.05). MCAv increased from rest to exercise but was not different among intensities (P > 0.05). Force output correlated with the root mean square EMG and changes in muscle HbO2 (P < 0.05), but not changes in cerebral HbO2 (P > 0.05) at all three intensities. Force output declined by 8% from the 1st to the 24th contraction only at 60% MVC and was accompanied by systematic increases in RMS, cerebral HbO2 and Hbtot with a leveling off in muscle HbO2 and Hbtot. These changes were independent of alterations in mean arterial pressure. Since cerebral blood flow and oxygenation were elevated at 60% MVC, we attribute the development of fatigue to reduced muscle oxygen availability rather than impaired central neuronal activation.